Post-Game Thoughts: Auburn Football

Cal earns a win that can shift a season, and maybe a program

Credit: Rob Hwang

I spent 37 hours on the ground in SEC country this weekend, and experience countless memorable moments. Two stand out,

1. With 11:27 left in the fourth quarter, Jaivian Thomas cut back and sliced through a hole between right guard and right tackle and raced 32 yards for the touchdown. After the initial euphoria subsided, Cal fans in the corner of Jordan-Hare Stadium started chanting “Cal-i-for-nia.”
   
   And then a funny thing happened. Despite making up maybe 7% of the crowd, the Cal bench heard our simple but enthusiastic cheer, and a bunch of the team came to the corner of the Cal sideline to whoop it up with us. Inspired, we chanted the name of the state we love even louder. Jaydn Ott, limited by injury and vicious Auburn line play, was at the front of the group. For the first time all weekend, I allowed myself to believe that Cal would win the game.

2. After the game, the entire team came over to the Cal rooting section, but pretty quickly went right into the tunnel to head to the locker room. After cheering them off the field, there was a pause as we considered what to do. But then Justin Wilcox emerges from a crowd of officials and runs to the corner, whips his hat around to whip the crowd back up, and then gets mobbed by the remaining Cal folks down in the corner.
   
   I ponder about how much time I’ve spent watching, writing, and thinking about the football teams he has led over the last 7+ years, all of the ups and downs, hopes and doubts. Like most of us, I genuinely like Justin Wilcox, but have also openly wondered whether Cal can ever aspire to more than 6 or 7 wins a season under him.
   
   In that moment, I believed deep in my heart that the answer just might be ‘yes.’

Offense

Efficiency Report

11 drives: 3 touchdowns, 2 field goal attempts (0-2), 6 punts, 1.9 points/drive

Removed: Cal’s final kneel down ‘drive,’ as well as the prior drive where Cal was just attempting to run out the clock and scoring wasn’t the goal. 1.9 might be a little unfair since it wasn’t the offense that missed two field goals, but I don’t expect Ryan Coe to make 50+ yarders either. Feel free to round up to 2.2 points/drive if you’re feeling generous.

Fernando plays the half of his life

I think it speaks volumes about the impression Aaron Rodgers left behind AND about what Fernando Mendoza did that everybody immediately made the comparison between this game and USC in 2004. The crazy thing is that in some ways you could make the argument that Fernando’s degree of difficulty was a touch higher thanks to Cal’s offensive line injuries. I don’t remember Aaron Rodgers getting touched a ton back in 2004, but per PFF Fernando took TWELVE hits in the backfield. I suspect those hits took a cumulative toll on Fernando’s ability to make plays as he had to settle for more and more dump offs while under more and more duress, but it was still a masterful performance, the kind you talk about for years to come.

On the offensive line

Keldric Faulk was the #62 overall recruit in the country in 2023 and played well as a true freshman last year, and appears to be blossoming into a star. Jalen McLeod and Austin Keys are both veterans who played SEC football at a high level last year. These players were the primary reason Auburn won the line of scrimmage so decisively.

They might be the most talented front Cal will play the rest of the season, give or take a Miami.

So there’s room for optimism as to how much improvement we might see from the line, either due to in-season development or softer challenges week-by-week. But I can’t say that I felt like this line is one or two healed injuries away from solid, and it looks like the left tackle spot specifically is going to be a pretty big challenge all year long.

It’s a credit to Fernando and the WR room that they were able to put up points in tough circumstances, and it’s heartening to know that this team doesn’t have to live or die based on how much room Jaydn Ott gets . . . but we also need to get him healthy AND get him some running room if this team is going to reach their potential.

Defense

Efficiency Report

13 drives: 2 touchdowns, 4 punts, 7 turnovers (1 fumble, 5 interceptions, 1 downs), 1.1 points/drive

The above is the comprehensive accounting of the box score reality, but if I had my way I would argue that Cal gave up 7 points across 12 relevant drives. One of Auburn’s touchdowns was aided by two very iffy penalties and a third joke of a penalty that erased an interception, and I’m comfortable counting that as a stop. And Auburn’s final drive technically counts as a stop via turnover, but they weren’t going 80 yards in 0:28. Honestly, Payton Thorne’s final pick felt like a concession to expediency.

A coaching win and a matchup win

Auburn seemed to have a clear game plan - try to isolate their talented receivers one-on-one to the outside, and let them make plays down the sidelines. And it worked once, on the first drive. But from that point on a combination of good coverage from Nohl Williams and Marcus Harris and a lack of accuracy from Thorne meant that plan A failed, and Auburn never really found a consistent plan B. Auburn probably should’ve handed the ball off more frequently to their backs, but then again they only averaged 5 yards a handoff and were stuffed to put Auburn into passing downs on plenty of occasions.

After the game, Williams talked about how Cal prepped them for those deep sideline routes, and the game clinching interception came on that exact kind of play. But the game plan is only as good as the players executing it; Auburn came into the game with a pretty arrogant game plan, and Cal’s corners proved they were ready to go against Auburn’s blue chippers.

Going from losing the point of attack to holding the point of attack

The best Cal defense under Wilcox had brilliant ILB play from Evan Weaver and Jordan Kunaszyk, plus the original Takers in the secondary. But they were able to make plays because guys like Chris Palmer and Luc Bequette weren’t losing battles on the line.

Well, what we saw against Auburn reminded me of those defenses in that specific way. Nate Burrell, T.J. Bollers, Stanley McKenzie, and Aidan Keanaaina weren’t amazing, and they won’t make the highlight reel. They didn’t record a sack and only combined for three tackles. But what they did was hold the point of attack. The occupied blockers. Cal’s defense over the last few years struggled in that department, and the result was that most offenses could churn out small chunk runs when they needed it, and Cal’s defense didn’t force many passing downs.

But by holding Auburn’s offensive line to a draw, it meant that players like Teddye Buchanan (who maybe had the best ILB game at Cal since Weaver?) had the space to make plays in the run game and as a pass rusher. It meant that Cal’s secondary didn’t have to hold coverage for 5+ seconds, and could play defense on 2nd/3rd and long. The line did just enough to ensure that the rest of the defense could shine.

Special Teams

Somehow, a special teams win

Not what you’d expect to say after missing two field goals, but such was the synergy between Cal’s units that the Bears were able to utterly control field position all game long thanks to a pretty great punting day from Lachlan Wilson. Two 3rd quarter punts travelled 50+ yards and were downed at the 2, allowing Cal to lean on their defense when the offense started sputtering.

For what it’s worth, I’m not particularly worried about Ryan Coe, who narrowly missed a very difficult kick, and unfortunately hit the post on a shorter kick. If the kicks had hooked or wobbled, maybe I’d be concerned for the future but I anticipate that he’s going to be reliable inside 40 for the rest of the season, and I’m thankful that this year’s bout of #collegekickers didn’t cost Cal a win. And meanwhile, we get to enjoy him sending every kickoff out of the end zone and entirely eliminating kickoff return coverage phobia.

Coaching/Game Theory

You don’t have to be aggressive when your defense is actually dominating

Cal had two opportunities to attempt 4th down conversions. The first came late in the 2nd quarter when Cal faced 4th and 3 at the Auburn 41. The second came on 4th and 5 with 2:49 left in the game, again at the Auburn 41. Cal punted both times, gaining just 21 yards of field position each time thanks to touchbacks.

Wilcox hesitated over the first decision, and I understand why - to that point, Fernando had been virtually flawless, and I think that made for a strong argument to go for it. Cal hadn’t really been able to translate their game dominance into scoreboard dominance, and it hurt to give up plus field position.

The second time around, the value of getting the first down was clear: Cal would be able to all but run the clock out and clinch the game. But by that point Cal’s defense hadn’t allowed non-penalty aided points since the first drive of the game and Auburn wasn’t going to drive 80+ yards without timeouts, so I get the call.

Points for composure

Justin Wilcox watched as his defense absorbed three really rough calls more or less back-to-back, all but handing Auburn 7 points and a lifeline back into the game. He calmly had a conversation with the refs, and in the post-game presser, he calmly described the calls as “tough” and “difficult.” (Fernando was a bit less disguised, calling to “Free Marcus” following his targeting ejection and said that Nohl Williams’ PI call was incorrect.)

There’s a rabid fan part of me that would’ve liked to see Wilcox rant about it, either on the sidelines or at the presser, but it wouldn’t have done any good, wouldn’t have changed a call. Instead, his team answered the bell by running out the clock and forcing more turnovers, which is the only worthwhile answer anyway.

Big Picture

So here’s the deal: I think that Cal just won the 2nd toughest game on their schedule.

It’s possible I’m wrong. Auburn wasn’t amazing last year, and they clearly have a big ole glaring problem at quarterback. But if you could magically ignore the most important position on the field, they’re at least the 3rd most talented team on Cal’s schedule. Only Miami is clearly better, and only Miami and Florida State have more talent from a recruiting perspective.

And Cal just beat them on the road. Should’ve beaten them by maybe 17 points, but for the vagaries of kicking and refs.

That’s massive, both because it takes a game that most had tentatively chalked up as a loss and pushes it into the win column, and because it demonstrates a higher level of play than any neutral observer predicted.

Because you’re all smart Cal nerds, I don’t need to tell you about probability and independent variables. Winning this doesn’t change the fact that every other game on Cal’s schedule is a risk. But the Bears are now at a point they have reached only a handful of times since the late Tedford era. They have the right combination of on-field performance, proven production, and wins under their belt that you are allowed - nay, encouraged! - to dream about something more than just making it to a bowl game.

Because again, there is not a game on this schedule that Cal doesn’t stand a realistic chance to win. And Cal will likely be favored by Vegas in 6 games the rest of the way, maybe more if they get healthy, impress with a strong performance against SDSU, or if their scheduled opponents continue to generally struggle.

This game COULD be a landmark turning point in the fortunes of this program - a game that turns heads, gets people paying attention, stands out as a performance where Cal establishes a new baseline. It will only stand out as a turning point if the Bears follow it up with more performances like it.

But for the die-hard Cal fans who made the trip, and for the die-hard Cal fans who have stuck with this program through thick and mostly thin, this one will stick in the memory for a while regardless of what comes next.