Post-Game Thoughts: Pitt Football

Cal drops a close, winnable game, and we've seen this story before

Every year, without fail, the toughest loss to take is the one that ends hopes of a special season.

Even when you know that a particular team is unlikely to achieve great things, the loss that confirms it hurts because you allow yourself the chance to dream big during the off-season.

One weird loss to Florida State wasn’t enough to crush hope. One heartbreaking loss to a very good Miami wasn’t enough to eliminate the possibility of more.

But losing to Pitt to drop to 0-3 in ACC play (and .500 overall) means that 1. any slim hopes for dark horse conference contention are gone and 2. another year of struggling for bowl eligibility is more or less where we are.

Bummer.

Offense

Efficiency Report

12 drives: 2 touchdowns, 2 field goal attempts (1-2), 6 punts, 1 turnover (downs), 1.25 points/drive

It wouldn’t take much to turn this into a 20 point outing if Cal had just attempted two PATs and made a field goal, which would be a still-bad-but-slightly-better 1.7 points/drive. (note that the national average is roughly 2.2 points/drive).

Granted, Cal’s failure to convert their two point conversions is in some sense a reflection of their offensive ability, but also a reflection of process and decision making.

Negative play rate check in

I don’t really want to make this a recurring feature, but it’s kinda the most important factor , Cal went backwards on 11 of their 77 offensive snaps, a rate of 14.3%. Here’s how that compares to prior games against FBS competition:

Auburn: 11.4%
SDSU: 10.1%
Florida St.: 16.2%
Miami: 14.3%
Pitt: 14.3%

Probably not a coincidence that Cal won those first two games and lost those last three games. And the story of the season is that the offensive line just can’t block consistently enough to allow a collection of good skill position talent to consistently move the ball.

Is Fernando the toughest QB in Cal history?

This is one of those impossible questions to definitively answer, though the default answer would probably be Joe Kapp, a legend in multiple leagues for a level of play that was generally considered reckless even back in the 50s, 60s and 70s. But in terms of modern Cal QB play, I can’t recall a QB who has been better in one very specific way: has there been a QB better at standing in the pocket and delivering a catchable throw even knowing he’s about to get crushed by a pass rusher?

Granted, there are QBs who were maybe also good at that, but didn’t need to actually do it with the frequency that Fernando does. I would like him to get hit less, please. But I appreciate that he’s willing to take one for the team, and evidently also has a bionic body because he never seems worse for wear after any one hit.

Defense

Efficiency Report

11 drives: 2 touchdowns, 1 field goal attempt (1-1), 6 punts, 2 turnovers (2 interceptions), 1.5 points/drive

If you remove Pitt’s 72 yard touchdown run on 4th and 1, the Panthers managed just 3.7 yards/play, which is a truly dire performance that might earn you a shut out in some games. Unfortunately, that long run happened, and Cal also gifted Pitt a free field goal attempt from a drive where Pitt gained 24 yards themselves and 30 yards via penalty.

In other words, Pitt really only managed one sustained long drive, an 11 play 75 yard march that still required a 4th down conversion at midfield AND was aided by two penalties as well.

There are two offenses left on the schedule that can bother this unit

Cal has now effectively limited every team on the schedule except for Miami, and even the Hurricanes struggled for three quarters. Only Kyle McCord and Syracuse, and SMU can realistically put up decent numbers if this defense stays healthy and plays to their ability level.

That doesn’t mean you should be expecting shut outs and easy wins; this defense isn’t perfect and a team like NC State or Oregon State will cobble together scoring drives. But the defense is healthy, the starters are operating at a high level, and the set of opposing offenses left on the schedule are, frankly, unimpressive.

Special Teams

I have nothing

In four seasons as a college kicker prior to this year, Ryan Coe was 34-39 from inside 40 yards. With the Bears, he is 5-9 from that distance, which doesn’t include the 40 yarder that would have been the game winner against Pitt. Basically, in half a season, Coe has matched the number of misses he accumulated in four full years as a kicker.

It would be one thing if Cal continued to struggle with placekicking because they didn’t take the position seriously and brought in unproven recruits. But Coe has been a successful college kicker at three different schools at three different levels.

So we’re left to speculate if this is just the mother of all random cold streaks, or that there is something about how Cal is coaching and preparing their kickers that causes them to not be able to perform in games.

Coaching/Game Theory

Three confusing decisions

• Decision 1: Going for 2 on the first touchdown of the game

In theory I like the idea of trying to steal an extra point, but here is what Cal was looking at the moment the ball was snapped:

Pitt has five guys to the play side of the snap against four Cal blockers, which doesn’t seem to be the numerical advantage you would need to actually call this play. As it turns out Cal almost converted anyway because two Pitt defenders attacked Lachlan Wilson and left long snapper David Bird open, but Pitt strung the play out well enough that the window was tiny. I walk away feeling like Cal’s coaches didn’t drill this well enough to justify the risk.

• Decision 2: Punting on 4th and 1 from the Cal 46 early in the 2nd quarter

Considering that: 1. Cal was trailing 2. Cal used 4th and 1 to convert a huge touchdown just a week ago and 3. Pitt used 4th and 1 to convert a huge touchdown just a few minutes ago; I felt that this was a CLEAR go for it situation. Instead Cal punted and Pitt drove for a field goal.

It shouldn’t be lost on everybody that two 4th down conversions from Pitt led to 10 points, while two bungled/skipped chances to attempt 4th and 1 conversion from Cal ended drives. Fortune favors the bold, but we’re in a depressing world where PAT NARDUZZI is the bolder coach.

• Decision 3: Using the Chandler Rogers package on 3rd and 9 on the final drive of the game, and how Cal handled the final few plays of that drive generally.

Look, two straight middle runs, then QB power are pretty conservative calls. Considering that Cal had taken 6 sacks I can sorta understand WHY you’d be conservative, but don’t be conservative and then try to tell me after the fact that you called the play you thought was most likely to result in a 3rd down conversion, man.

In the moment, I disliked every one of these decisions, which probably makes me a hypocrite because my lizard brain struggles to split out process from result, and the results in all three cases weren’t great. But it leaves me wondering what this team’s identity is. Are we aggressive? Conservative? It seems to change from game to game, drive to drive.

And considering how perplexing all of this game management was, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that:

1. Cal is 0-5 in Justin Wilcox’s tenure in games where Cal and Cal’s opponent each score the exact same number of touchdowns and field goals.

2. Justin Wilcox is 15-25 in games decided by 8 points or less.

Big Picture

This was my reaction during the game on Saturday:

The good news is that thanks to general improvement, the Bears are indeed a more talented team than prior seasons. This MIGHT be the best team of the Wilcox era.

But this team’s ability to hit that ceiling depends on their ability to limit mistakes. And, frankly, after six games, I’m inclined to think that errors are just an inherent thing that comes with this team, and more generally as a hallmark of Justin Wilcox’s entire tenure.

To be fair, this is somewhat subjective on my part. I don’t have some kind of holistic stat to prove that Cal this year or under Wilcox generally has made more errors than the average college football team, a sport notorious for mistakes already.

I could point out that Cal is 131st in the nation in penalties/game, but Cal has previously been very good at not getting called for penalties in some Wilcox seasons, and very bad in others. I could argue that Cal’s special teams have been filled with errors for most of Wilcox’s tenure. But this is mostly my subjective sense from watching 8.5 seasons. Justin Wilcox’s teams have tended to be rather error prone, and while everybody will talk about stuff that can get fixed via coaching, the error rate continues.

Why am I talking about this? Well, to the extent that some Cal fans are trying to stay optimistic, it rests on the schedule. Cal’s last three games included two tough road trips and a home game against the best team in the ACC, so while it’s a bummer to lose those games, the easy part of the schedule begins now. Cal should be favored in each of the next five games.

But actually translating that into five wins is a different thing. Florida State, despite all of their talent, is actually playing like one of the worst teams in the conference. Their only win came against Cal, in a game the Bears gave away in part due to errors.

So I’m skeptical that the Bears will fix enough problems such that they will actually run the table in their next five games. I don’t know which team(s) Cal will drop a game against, but the odds suggest there is a loss or two in the next five games. Even when you consider that four of five are at home. Even when you consider that Wake Forest and Stanford are both in the conversation for weakest power conference teams in the nation.

I would be thrilled if the Bears find a way to avoid errors and sweep their way to an 8-3 record and set up a really intriguing end-of-season clash with SMU in Dallas. That such a scenario is possible in the first place says something about how strong the ACC is in comparison to last year’s Pac-12.

But in order for that to happen, we would need to see a level of consistent play that, frankly, Justin Wilcox has never produced in nearly a decade of time in Berkeley.

I’ll hope for change, I’ll root for change . . . but I won’t expect it.