Friend that’s a Ducks fan just texted me to say that he’s hearing that 5 Star QB recruit Jeron is going to keep his commitment to Cal. Up until now, Ducks fans were highly confident he would go to Eugene. Said Cal came through with good NIL $ and that he wants to play early. He had recently cancelled his recruiting trip to Georgia. Sounds positive.
To all of you who want to fire and hire a new head coach and assistants, it can't be done this year and probably next. The Athletic department does not have the money at this point without more or less cancelling many of the non revenue sports. It'll take $15 million or more to do it. Also I might add the reason Cal and Furd have trouble is that the acceptance rate of applicants at Cal is 9% and Furd's is less than that, while Oregon, for instance, is 85%. In other words an O lineman who barely graduates from HS can get into Oregon or Alabama or Arizona State, etc, but not Cal
Yep, that is the reality and it isn’t like Wilcox can only depend on the portal. He could actually recruit HS OL and develop them but he has proven over his 7 seasons at Cal and pre NIL days that he can’t recruit and develop OL talent at Cal. So Wilcox is bad portal OL talent evaluation and terrible at HS OL recruiting.
Our fundraising is pathetic for the school we are.
Imagine if 30% of non-retired alums gave just $20/month? Then add big donors (whales) on top of that. Our yearly fundraising floor should be around $5 million +.
And, yes, I am spent. I put so much hope and high expectations and money I did not have into this year.
I, too, have low expectations for the bowl, whatever it is.
Wilcox hasn’t given alums a reason to care or donate. He has created apathy and zero excitement. Nothing will change until Wilcox can prove he can produce a winning conference record or Cal hires a new coach that can create some excitement.
Yes, we need NIL money but I don’t trust Wilcox to do anything with it other than lose.
And honestly, you don’t need Ohio State’s NIL to have an average offensive line. All you need is competent coaching, which Cal has very little of.
All this talk of Cal needing more NIL $$$ towards the OL is kinda silly….with even an average OL, Cal wins 9-10 games this year. And you don’t need a $6M NIL program to block.
He’s kind of eschewed the HS recruit route and made a concerted effort to hit the transfer portal.
Problem is he’s getting overrated P4/5 guys like Wykoff, or dudes from Montana State and Coastal Carolina. Those guys are not gonna get you to the ACC Championship game, but with coaching and scheme, they should absolutely be better than what they were this year.
Absolutely and he is doing the portal all wrong. It should be used for 2 reasons:
1. To help plug an unexpected roster hole that happens due to injury/medical retirement, early NFL departures, recruiting misses, etc
2. To get a roster that is a player or two away from competing for a championship or conference title the guy they need to win
He is treating the portal like it is NFL free agency, while ignoring the HS recruiting, which is like the NFL draft. You build through the draft and plug holes through free agency.
There does some to be a large amount of variance. Many coaches cash out on a big payday after a couple years of success at one program and then never again reach those same heights. Only the top handful of coaches seem to have consistent success wherever they go, and even those cases are hard to objectivepy evaluate since they are often at top programs with resources. One thing I did read about DeRuyter is that he's not much of a recruiter so that could be a factor.
You haven't talked at all about the threat of losing more key players to the transfer portal than can be convinced to come here. Also wonder how the disappointment of this year (coupled with limited NIL $$) will affect both incoming transfers and maybe more importantly, top HS recruits. Me thinks these are at least as important than who's doing the coaching.
If we keep the current coaching staff, then many will feel the team is not going to get better and leave. On the other hand, if we change coaching staff, then many players will also leave. We are going to lose key players regardless so we should take a chance with new coaches.
I read today that Cal has a $3.9M NIL budget this year. One of the lowest in P5 and below many schools with far smaller alumni bases and financial locations. I don't mean to excuse Wilcox, as you know, only to point out that in today's game money is huge. It bums me out.
Well said, Nick. I have no hope for next year. What fool would think different outcomes without major changes in the staff? My wife asked I wanted to go to LA if the bowl is there, and I laughed. She's still in shock that I've withdrawn so much.
What we need is MONEY. In a recent Write for California, someone wondered how SMU could get so good so fast. They can afford to buy great players. When they saw they were going into the ACC they raised 179 million in one month. They didn't care that they would have to receive a smaller share of ACC money. They said they didn't need it. They have a bunch or oil millionaire/billionaire boosters. We need to seek out Cal Alums that can afford to make and are willing to make some BIG donations. College football is all about the money now.
I don't think we are being successful to the extent that other schools are. On the day or weekend we were so happy to have raised 1 million dollars SMU raised 100 Million
Meh. Can't really even glean much from the QB play, given Fernando was practicing as the starter all week, taking the first-team reps. And Chandler Rogers basically turned into a short-distance specialist QB for us this season, so he likely wasn't getting many passing reps even when he did practice.
It seems like a consistent thing with this staff. McIlwain getting playing time over Garbers was also baffling. We have to back into having our best QB starting and playing the bulk of the snaps.
Yeah, it is a troubling trend where Wilcox keeps forcing these QB competitions throughout camp and the start of the season. He did it with Garbers and he did it with Fernando. It is fine to have competition and a battle to start in camp but I don’t understand why it continues through the start of the season.
Because of his patience and hands out of the backfield, Ott could be a real productive pro on a team with a zone blocking scheme and even an average O-line.
Provided he can stay healthy, something he has not managed to do in any of his 3 seasons in Berkeley.
Yeah, that health factor is something NFL teams will look closely at.
Yes, when we played WF, it was the first I had heard of a “slow mesh” offense, but when I saw WF, I thought of Ott’s careful choices looking for a crease.
He peaked last year, but this year, coinciding with this year’s poor Online performance, he became super cautious. It got to the point where Paws was saying “Pick a gap and go!”
In Ott’s defense, it was doing exactly that quick decision that got him injured in the first game of the year.
In a recent interview, D. Sanders talked about how last year they got skill guys, and this year they finally got a good line which helped the offense perform better. Hopefully we follow suit.
FWIW, Colorado's offensive line has actually been pretty bad - 123rd in sacks allowed and 133rd in rushing yards/attempt . . . so maybe I need to revise my thesis because Colorado was solid on offense despite all of that. Helps to have NFL level skill position talent, whereas Cal's skill position talent is good but not NFL level.
I agree with the analysis. I have believed all year, given the realities that we have a major problem with the OC. He must be replaced. Given the offensive talent (especially with a weak OL), the game plans have shown little creativity and tge in-in-game play calling has been weak and uncreative. We also need a DC who will coach an aggressive approach to defensive game planning and play calling. I am SO tired of the bend but don't break philosophy. Finally, it has been clear all year we need an OL coach, not one coach doing two jobs. Wilcox will undoubtedly stay. The other two need to go.
What got me with Bloesch was his inability to marry his play calling with what his OL could actually do…which is what a guy pulling double duty should absolutely be able to do.
Friend that’s a Ducks fan just texted me to say that he’s hearing that 5 Star QB recruit Jeron is going to keep his commitment to Cal. Up until now, Ducks fans were highly confident he would go to Eugene. Said Cal came through with good NIL $ and that he wants to play early. He had recently cancelled his recruiting trip to Georgia. Sounds positive.
To all of you who want to fire and hire a new head coach and assistants, it can't be done this year and probably next. The Athletic department does not have the money at this point without more or less cancelling many of the non revenue sports. It'll take $15 million or more to do it. Also I might add the reason Cal and Furd have trouble is that the acceptance rate of applicants at Cal is 9% and Furd's is less than that, while Oregon, for instance, is 85%. In other words an O lineman who barely graduates from HS can get into Oregon or Alabama or Arizona State, etc, but not Cal
OL are usually the smartest students when looking by positions
At this point just pray that Nando stays...........
Go Bears Forever!!!!
Just for fun, end of season rankings:
Colley Matrix (Bias free starting point and my favorite): #78 (top 3 - Ore, Tex, ND)
Massey composite rankings (68 rankings combined): #65 (Ore, Tex, ND)
The Athletic's all team rankings: #53 (Ore, Tex, ND)
ESPN's Football Power Index Rank: #50 (good for 8th in ACC) (Tex, ND, Ohio State)
Donors contributed to the NIL over the offseason helping to compile the most talented roster of Justin Wilcox’s tenure. He absolutely squandered it.
Many donors are hesitant to give big $$$ to CALegends so long as Justin Wilcox remains the Travers Family Head Coach. It’s an unfortunate reality.
Yep, that is the reality and it isn’t like Wilcox can only depend on the portal. He could actually recruit HS OL and develop them but he has proven over his 7 seasons at Cal and pre NIL days that he can’t recruit and develop OL talent at Cal. So Wilcox is bad portal OL talent evaluation and terrible at HS OL recruiting.
Thanks Nick!
Calbears 91
What he wrote.
This!
Our fundraising is pathetic for the school we are.
Imagine if 30% of non-retired alums gave just $20/month? Then add big donors (whales) on top of that. Our yearly fundraising floor should be around $5 million +.
And, yes, I am spent. I put so much hope and high expectations and money I did not have into this year.
I, too, have low expectations for the bowl, whatever it is.
Wilcox hasn’t given alums a reason to care or donate. He has created apathy and zero excitement. Nothing will change until Wilcox can prove he can produce a winning conference record or Cal hires a new coach that can create some excitement.
Yes, we need NIL money but I don’t trust Wilcox to do anything with it other than lose.
And honestly, you don’t need Ohio State’s NIL to have an average offensive line. All you need is competent coaching, which Cal has very little of.
All this talk of Cal needing more NIL $$$ towards the OL is kinda silly….with even an average OL, Cal wins 9-10 games this year. And you don’t need a $6M NIL program to block.
Like I said above, Wilcox could actually try to recruit HS OL talent and develop them but he has proven he can’t do that.
He’s kind of eschewed the HS recruit route and made a concerted effort to hit the transfer portal.
Problem is he’s getting overrated P4/5 guys like Wykoff, or dudes from Montana State and Coastal Carolina. Those guys are not gonna get you to the ACC Championship game, but with coaching and scheme, they should absolutely be better than what they were this year.
Absolutely and he is doing the portal all wrong. It should be used for 2 reasons:
1. To help plug an unexpected roster hole that happens due to injury/medical retirement, early NFL departures, recruiting misses, etc
2. To get a roster that is a player or two away from competing for a championship or conference title the guy they need to win
He is treating the portal like it is NFL free agency, while ignoring the HS recruiting, which is like the NFL draft. You build through the draft and plug holes through free agency.
But he's not a head coach
somewhat off topic, but Tim DeRuyter - Texas Tech's DC - was just fired. They had the worst pass D in the Big 12.
It takes me some effort to convince myself that coaching hires aren't just random crapshoots.
There does some to be a large amount of variance. Many coaches cash out on a big payday after a couple years of success at one program and then never again reach those same heights. Only the top handful of coaches seem to have consistent success wherever they go, and even those cases are hard to objectivepy evaluate since they are often at top programs with resources. One thing I did read about DeRuyter is that he's not much of a recruiter so that could be a factor.
I want GA back more than TDR
You haven't talked at all about the threat of losing more key players to the transfer portal than can be convinced to come here. Also wonder how the disappointment of this year (coupled with limited NIL $$) will affect both incoming transfers and maybe more importantly, top HS recruits. Me thinks these are at least as important than who's doing the coaching.
We are going to lose many players regardless.
If we keep the current coaching staff, then many will feel the team is not going to get better and leave. On the other hand, if we change coaching staff, then many players will also leave. We are going to lose key players regardless so we should take a chance with new coaches.
I read today that Cal has a $3.9M NIL budget this year. One of the lowest in P5 and below many schools with far smaller alumni bases and financial locations. I don't mean to excuse Wilcox, as you know, only to point out that in today's game money is huge. It bums me out.
Well said, Nick. I have no hope for next year. What fool would think different outcomes without major changes in the staff? My wife asked I wanted to go to LA if the bowl is there, and I laughed. She's still in shock that I've withdrawn so much.
Whales are hesitant to give big money because of Wilcox.
What we need is MONEY. In a recent Write for California, someone wondered how SMU could get so good so fast. They can afford to buy great players. When they saw they were going into the ACC they raised 179 million in one month. They didn't care that they would have to receive a smaller share of ACC money. They said they didn't need it. They have a bunch or oil millionaire/billionaire boosters. We need to seek out Cal Alums that can afford to make and are willing to make some BIG donations. College football is all about the money now.
I think we are already doing that
I don't think we are being successful to the extent that other schools are. On the day or weekend we were so happy to have raised 1 million dollars SMU raised 100 Million
Nothing is stopping Wilcox from doing better at HS OL recruiting. Wilcox was bad at HS recruiting and that was pre NIL days.
We are not successful. We've only raised a few million dollars. But that's probably the most we can raise....
my post game thought is I can't believe there was a QB competition at the start of the season
Meh. Can't really even glean much from the QB play, given Fernando was practicing as the starter all week, taking the first-team reps. And Chandler Rogers basically turned into a short-distance specialist QB for us this season, so he likely wasn't getting many passing reps even when he did practice.
Same. This is 2 years in a row that QB evaluations in fall camp don't pass the eye test on the field.
It seems like a consistent thing with this staff. McIlwain getting playing time over Garbers was also baffling. We have to back into having our best QB starting and playing the bulk of the snaps.
Yeah, it is a troubling trend where Wilcox keeps forcing these QB competitions throughout camp and the start of the season. He did it with Garbers and he did it with Fernando. It is fine to have competition and a battle to start in camp but I don’t understand why it continues through the start of the season.
Cause he is not an offensive guy. He is a DC at most.
I, at least, give JW credit for identifying Nando w as a worthy recruit and poaching him from Yale.
That being said, I must wonder how the players feel and what they identify as the problems.
I try to black out the Mcllwain experiment from my memory.
I’m grateful I still drank when McIlwain was in town.
Good article! Curious to see what Ott will do - is NFL draft out of picture now given the year he had, or can he explain away due to injury?
I think he could still get drafted. And going later might mean a stronger team.
Can you imagine him backing up McCaffery?
Because of his patience and hands out of the backfield, Ott could be a real productive pro on a team with a zone blocking scheme and even an average O-line.
Provided he can stay healthy, something he has not managed to do in any of his 3 seasons in Berkeley.
Yeah, that health factor is something NFL teams will look closely at.
Yes, when we played WF, it was the first I had heard of a “slow mesh” offense, but when I saw WF, I thought of Ott’s careful choices looking for a crease.
He peaked last year, but this year, coinciding with this year’s poor Online performance, he became super cautious. It got to the point where Paws was saying “Pick a gap and go!”
In Ott’s defense, it was doing exactly that quick decision that got him injured in the first game of the year.
Yeah he seemed really tentative all year. I know our O line was the primary problem, but he did not help much either
Cogent, concise, and on point. Thank you for reminding me to temper my expectations next August.
The true Calgorithm is “wait-and-see-and-keep-hoping.”
In a recent interview, D. Sanders talked about how last year they got skill guys, and this year they finally got a good line which helped the offense perform better. Hopefully we follow suit.
FWIW, Colorado's offensive line has actually been pretty bad - 123rd in sacks allowed and 133rd in rushing yards/attempt . . . so maybe I need to revise my thesis because Colorado was solid on offense despite all of that. Helps to have NFL level skill position talent, whereas Cal's skill position talent is good but not NFL level.
An OL coach would do wonders.
I agree with the analysis. I have believed all year, given the realities that we have a major problem with the OC. He must be replaced. Given the offensive talent (especially with a weak OL), the game plans have shown little creativity and tge in-in-game play calling has been weak and uncreative. We also need a DC who will coach an aggressive approach to defensive game planning and play calling. I am SO tired of the bend but don't break philosophy. Finally, it has been clear all year we need an OL coach, not one coach doing two jobs. Wilcox will undoubtedly stay. The other two need to go.
What got me with Bloesch was his inability to marry his play calling with what his OL could actually do…which is what a guy pulling double duty should absolutely be able to do.