Nick writes a succinct, clear piece touching on all the Wilcox issues. I don't think we need to add a series of "Fire Wilcox" posts here. Those posts don't progress the conversation much...
We could but we'd need it to be very West Coast focused. Cal's not bringing Sam Houston's K.C. Keeler (a southeast PA-native) to Berkeley or a recently fired Neal Brown. Somehow NH-native Chip Kelly landed in Eugene and looked comfortable immediately. TX-native Lincoln Riley doesn't seem to fit in LA (thus far). Do you (or others) know much about high quality coaches that would fit here? Go Bears!
It seems like a consistent thing with this staff. McIlwain getting playing time over Garbers was also baffling. We have to back into having our best QB starting and playing the bulk of the snaps.
Yeah, it is a troubling trend where Wilcox keeps forcing these QB competitions throughout camp and the start of the season. He did it with Garbers and he did it with Fernando. It is fine to have competition and a battle to start in camp but I don’t understand why it continues through the start of the season.
Meh. Can't really even glean much from the QB play, given Fernando was practicing as the starter all week, taking the first-team reps. And Chandler Rogers basically turned into a short-distance specialist QB for us this season, so he likely wasn't getting many passing reps even when he did practice.
Wow, the Big Picture was right on and very sobering, Nick... I won't get on the fire Wilcox soap box - but with the portal, NIL and eligibility changes, my guess is a JW coached Cal team in 2025 will be far weaker in personnel than this 2024 team. We have the talent in 2024 and not the coaching, and the players know and see that. 2025 will be 3-1 early, then 2-6 in conference. It is back to the fan base enjoying coming back to campus and getting some sun at Strawberry Canyon. We and the players deserve better...
"This team is too talented to...", "We have the talent...", etc. Evidence proves otherwise. Particularly on the offensive line, and secondarily in depth. Unfortunately, that renders most of the talent Cal, or any team, has elsewhere, irrelevant.
The Bears are going to have to invest in some sturdier ones on the o-line, or they can make any coaching change they can pull off, and the results won't vary significantly.
I don't know, I think the OL going from about an average unit last season to bottom-of-the-barrel this season can also be chalked up to no longer having a dedicated OL coach, after Wilcox decided to make him do double-duty as the OC. That's not about talent, that's a coaching decision that came from the top. IMO we had the talent to be an average OL again.
Now the question is, do we fire Bloesch? Or do we demote him back to OL coach and hire new OC? Those are the better options, but I feel Wilcox might keep Bloesch as OC and hire a new OL coach.
Yes, but.... we *did have the talent to be much better than 6-6. Cal was in position (and in my view) should have won four more games in a soft conference. We should be a 10-2/9-3 team with deep flaws. Instead, this.
There does some to be a large amount of variance. Many coaches cash out on a big payday after a couple years of success at one program and then never again reach those same heights. Only the top handful of coaches seem to have consistent success wherever they go, and even those cases are hard to objectivepy evaluate since they are often at top programs with resources. One thing I did read about DeRuyter is that he's not much of a recruiter so that could be a factor.
Our fundraising is pathetic for the school we are.
Imagine if 30% of non-retired alums gave just $20/month? Then add big donors (whales) on top of that. Our yearly fundraising floor should be around $5 million +.
And, yes, I am spent. I put so much hope and high expectations and money I did not have into this year.
I, too, have low expectations for the bowl, whatever it is.
Wilcox hasn’t given alums a reason to care or donate. He has created apathy and zero excitement. Nothing will change until Wilcox can prove he can produce a winning conference record or Cal hires a new coach that can create some excitement.
Yes, we need NIL money but I don’t trust Wilcox to do anything with it other than lose.
And honestly, you don’t need Ohio State’s NIL to have an average offensive line. All you need is competent coaching, which Cal has very little of.
All this talk of Cal needing more NIL $$$ towards the OL is kinda silly….with even an average OL, Cal wins 9-10 games this year. And you don’t need a $6M NIL program to block.
He’s kind of eschewed the HS recruit route and made a concerted effort to hit the transfer portal.
Problem is he’s getting overrated P4/5 guys like Wykoff, or dudes from Montana State and Coastal Carolina. Those guys are not gonna get you to the ACC Championship game, but with coaching and scheme, they should absolutely be better than what they were this year.
Absolutely and he is doing the portal all wrong. It should be used for 2 reasons:
1. To help plug an unexpected roster hole that happens due to injury/medical retirement, early NFL departures, recruiting misses, etc
2. To get a roster that is a player or two away from competing for a championship or conference title the guy they need to win
He is treating the portal like it is NFL free agency, while ignoring the HS recruiting, which is like the NFL draft. You build through the draft and plug holes through free agency.
I agree with the analysis. I have believed all year, given the realities that we have a major problem with the OC. He must be replaced. Given the offensive talent (especially with a weak OL), the game plans have shown little creativity and tge in-in-game play calling has been weak and uncreative. We also need a DC who will coach an aggressive approach to defensive game planning and play calling. I am SO tired of the bend but don't break philosophy. Finally, it has been clear all year we need an OL coach, not one coach doing two jobs. Wilcox will undoubtedly stay. The other two need to go.
What got me with Bloesch was his inability to marry his play calling with what his OL could actually do…which is what a guy pulling double duty should absolutely be able to do.
Yep, that is the reality and it isn’t like Wilcox can only depend on the portal. He could actually recruit HS OL and develop them but he has proven over his 7 seasons at Cal and pre NIL days that he can’t recruit and develop OL talent at Cal. So Wilcox is bad portal OL talent evaluation and terrible at HS OL recruiting.
Because of his patience and hands out of the backfield, Ott could be a real productive pro on a team with a zone blocking scheme and even an average O-line.
Provided he can stay healthy, something he has not managed to do in any of his 3 seasons in Berkeley.
Yeah, that health factor is something NFL teams will look closely at.
Yes, when we played WF, it was the first I had heard of a “slow mesh” offense, but when I saw WF, I thought of Ott’s careful choices looking for a crease.
He peaked last year, but this year, coinciding with this year’s poor Online performance, he became super cautious. It got to the point where Paws was saying “Pick a gap and go!”
In Ott’s defense, it was doing exactly that quick decision that got him injured in the first game of the year.
Friend that’s a Ducks fan just texted me to say that he’s hearing that 5 Star QB recruit Jeron is going to keep his commitment to Cal. Up until now, Ducks fans were highly confident he would go to Eugene. Said Cal came through with good NIL $ and that he wants to play early. He had recently cancelled his recruiting trip to Georgia. Sounds positive.
To all of you who want to fire and hire a new head coach and assistants, it can't be done this year and probably next. The Athletic department does not have the money at this point without more or less cancelling many of the non revenue sports. It'll take $15 million or more to do it. Also I might add the reason Cal and Furd have trouble is that the acceptance rate of applicants at Cal is 9% and Furd's is less than that, while Oregon, for instance, is 85%. In other words an O lineman who barely graduates from HS can get into Oregon or Alabama or Arizona State, etc, but not Cal
One other player we need to keep out of the portal is "jet" Thomas.
Jet could be a dark horse all-ACC candidate with a solid OL and some luck on the injury front.
I like the combo of speedy big play Jet + a big bruising back for short yardage and to wear down the defense.
Nick writes a succinct, clear piece touching on all the Wilcox issues. I don't think we need to add a series of "Fire Wilcox" posts here. Those posts don't progress the conversation much...
amen!!
Amen, indeed.
It's like being in a devout Catholic marriage where one may frequently complain about a spouse, but divorce is not an option.
So, we endure.
Divorce is always an option and staying together just the kids doesn’t help anyone, especially the kids.
Uh, just to be clear, we are talking about our shackled relationship with JW, thanks to JK, right?
Perhaps we could apply an Annulment loophole here? 🤔
see Henry VIII
and we managed to still go "Boleyn"
Really, just so good.
OMG, that corn is a comfort food.
Fun fact: From years ago, my paraphrase of an Episcopal Church ad:
When your church was started by a guy that killed his wives, forgiveness is obvious.
Which is the problem.
A majority of the fanbase is more than happy to keep rolling with Wilcox for a myriad of defeatist reasons.
We could start potential HC candidates thread
We could but we'd need it to be very West Coast focused. Cal's not bringing Sam Houston's K.C. Keeler (a southeast PA-native) to Berkeley or a recently fired Neal Brown. Somehow NH-native Chip Kelly landed in Eugene and looked comfortable immediately. TX-native Lincoln Riley doesn't seem to fit in LA (thus far). Do you (or others) know much about high quality coaches that would fit here? Go Bears!
Nick Saban looks good in a Cal tie.
Maybe he’d love the challenge.
CA real estate is too expensive for him ;-)
Petersen
Now THAT would push the donors, maybe ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
my post game thought is I can't believe there was a QB competition at the start of the season
Same. This is 2 years in a row that QB evaluations in fall camp don't pass the eye test on the field.
It seems like a consistent thing with this staff. McIlwain getting playing time over Garbers was also baffling. We have to back into having our best QB starting and playing the bulk of the snaps.
I try to black out the Mcllwain experiment from my memory.
I’m grateful I still drank when McIlwain was in town.
Yeah, it is a troubling trend where Wilcox keeps forcing these QB competitions throughout camp and the start of the season. He did it with Garbers and he did it with Fernando. It is fine to have competition and a battle to start in camp but I don’t understand why it continues through the start of the season.
I, at least, give JW credit for identifying Nando w as a worthy recruit and poaching him from Yale.
That being said, I must wonder how the players feel and what they identify as the problems.
Cause he is not an offensive guy. He is a DC at most.
Meh. Can't really even glean much from the QB play, given Fernando was practicing as the starter all week, taking the first-team reps. And Chandler Rogers basically turned into a short-distance specialist QB for us this season, so he likely wasn't getting many passing reps even when he did practice.
Wow, the Big Picture was right on and very sobering, Nick... I won't get on the fire Wilcox soap box - but with the portal, NIL and eligibility changes, my guess is a JW coached Cal team in 2025 will be far weaker in personnel than this 2024 team. We have the talent in 2024 and not the coaching, and the players know and see that. 2025 will be 3-1 early, then 2-6 in conference. It is back to the fan base enjoying coming back to campus and getting some sun at Strawberry Canyon. We and the players deserve better...
"This team is too talented to...", "We have the talent...", etc. Evidence proves otherwise. Particularly on the offensive line, and secondarily in depth. Unfortunately, that renders most of the talent Cal, or any team, has elsewhere, irrelevant.
The Bears are going to have to invest in some sturdier ones on the o-line, or they can make any coaching change they can pull off, and the results won't vary significantly.
I don't know, I think the OL going from about an average unit last season to bottom-of-the-barrel this season can also be chalked up to no longer having a dedicated OL coach, after Wilcox decided to make him do double-duty as the OC. That's not about talent, that's a coaching decision that came from the top. IMO we had the talent to be an average OL again.
Now the question is, do we fire Bloesch? Or do we demote him back to OL coach and hire new OC? Those are the better options, but I feel Wilcox might keep Bloesch as OC and hire a new OL coach.
Nah, Wilcox saw flaws in the D against SMU and will hire a third DB coach instead
Maybe he will bring back his buddy Keith Heyward
I agree and think this is what is going to happen.
Ya Bloesch will remain OC and Wilcox will probably promote Saffell to be dual TE/OL coach.
Zero chance Wilcox hires a 5th different OC.
I would rather have our QB coach do double duty as OC and send Bloesch back to OL coaching only.
Yes, but.... we *did have the talent to be much better than 6-6. Cal was in position (and in my view) should have won four more games in a soft conference. We should be a 10-2/9-3 team with deep flaws. Instead, this.
somewhat off topic, but Tim DeRuyter - Texas Tech's DC - was just fired. They had the worst pass D in the Big 12.
It takes me some effort to convince myself that coaching hires aren't just random crapshoots.
There does some to be a large amount of variance. Many coaches cash out on a big payday after a couple years of success at one program and then never again reach those same heights. Only the top handful of coaches seem to have consistent success wherever they go, and even those cases are hard to objectivepy evaluate since they are often at top programs with resources. One thing I did read about DeRuyter is that he's not much of a recruiter so that could be a factor.
I want GA back more than TDR
At this point just pray that Nando stays...........
Go Bears Forever!!!!
Calbears 91
What he wrote.
This!
Our fundraising is pathetic for the school we are.
Imagine if 30% of non-retired alums gave just $20/month? Then add big donors (whales) on top of that. Our yearly fundraising floor should be around $5 million +.
And, yes, I am spent. I put so much hope and high expectations and money I did not have into this year.
I, too, have low expectations for the bowl, whatever it is.
Wilcox hasn’t given alums a reason to care or donate. He has created apathy and zero excitement. Nothing will change until Wilcox can prove he can produce a winning conference record or Cal hires a new coach that can create some excitement.
Yes, we need NIL money but I don’t trust Wilcox to do anything with it other than lose.
And honestly, you don’t need Ohio State’s NIL to have an average offensive line. All you need is competent coaching, which Cal has very little of.
All this talk of Cal needing more NIL $$$ towards the OL is kinda silly….with even an average OL, Cal wins 9-10 games this year. And you don’t need a $6M NIL program to block.
Like I said above, Wilcox could actually try to recruit HS OL talent and develop them but he has proven he can’t do that.
He’s kind of eschewed the HS recruit route and made a concerted effort to hit the transfer portal.
Problem is he’s getting overrated P4/5 guys like Wykoff, or dudes from Montana State and Coastal Carolina. Those guys are not gonna get you to the ACC Championship game, but with coaching and scheme, they should absolutely be better than what they were this year.
Absolutely and he is doing the portal all wrong. It should be used for 2 reasons:
1. To help plug an unexpected roster hole that happens due to injury/medical retirement, early NFL departures, recruiting misses, etc
2. To get a roster that is a player or two away from competing for a championship or conference title the guy they need to win
He is treating the portal like it is NFL free agency, while ignoring the HS recruiting, which is like the NFL draft. You build through the draft and plug holes through free agency.
But he's not a head coach
I agree with the analysis. I have believed all year, given the realities that we have a major problem with the OC. He must be replaced. Given the offensive talent (especially with a weak OL), the game plans have shown little creativity and tge in-in-game play calling has been weak and uncreative. We also need a DC who will coach an aggressive approach to defensive game planning and play calling. I am SO tired of the bend but don't break philosophy. Finally, it has been clear all year we need an OL coach, not one coach doing two jobs. Wilcox will undoubtedly stay. The other two need to go.
What got me with Bloesch was his inability to marry his play calling with what his OL could actually do…which is what a guy pulling double duty should absolutely be able to do.
*takes shot of hopium
Hey, it's more mind-bending than absinthe.
Thanks, Nick.
You've been a great resource as we struggle to find our place in this new conference.
Thank you, again for the digest of the FSU/Clemson lawsuits.
And thank you for this piece as it puts Cal's entire season and underperformance in crystal clear lux.
Yes, this season ends in a whimper, not a Tightwad Hill cannon shot.
Fiat hopium
Donors contributed to the NIL over the offseason helping to compile the most talented roster of Justin Wilcox’s tenure. He absolutely squandered it.
Many donors are hesitant to give big $$$ to CALegends so long as Justin Wilcox remains the Travers Family Head Coach. It’s an unfortunate reality.
Yep, that is the reality and it isn’t like Wilcox can only depend on the portal. He could actually recruit HS OL and develop them but he has proven over his 7 seasons at Cal and pre NIL days that he can’t recruit and develop OL talent at Cal. So Wilcox is bad portal OL talent evaluation and terrible at HS OL recruiting.
Good article! Curious to see what Ott will do - is NFL draft out of picture now given the year he had, or can he explain away due to injury?
I think he could still get drafted. And going later might mean a stronger team.
Can you imagine him backing up McCaffery?
Because of his patience and hands out of the backfield, Ott could be a real productive pro on a team with a zone blocking scheme and even an average O-line.
Provided he can stay healthy, something he has not managed to do in any of his 3 seasons in Berkeley.
Yeah, that health factor is something NFL teams will look closely at.
Yes, when we played WF, it was the first I had heard of a “slow mesh” offense, but when I saw WF, I thought of Ott’s careful choices looking for a crease.
He peaked last year, but this year, coinciding with this year’s poor Online performance, he became super cautious. It got to the point where Paws was saying “Pick a gap and go!”
In Ott’s defense, it was doing exactly that quick decision that got him injured in the first game of the year.
Yeah he seemed really tentative all year. I know our O line was the primary problem, but he did not help much either
Cogent, concise, and on point. Thank you for reminding me to temper my expectations next August.
The true Calgorithm is “wait-and-see-and-keep-hoping.”
Friend that’s a Ducks fan just texted me to say that he’s hearing that 5 Star QB recruit Jeron is going to keep his commitment to Cal. Up until now, Ducks fans were highly confident he would go to Eugene. Said Cal came through with good NIL $ and that he wants to play early. He had recently cancelled his recruiting trip to Georgia. Sounds positive.
To all of you who want to fire and hire a new head coach and assistants, it can't be done this year and probably next. The Athletic department does not have the money at this point without more or less cancelling many of the non revenue sports. It'll take $15 million or more to do it. Also I might add the reason Cal and Furd have trouble is that the acceptance rate of applicants at Cal is 9% and Furd's is less than that, while Oregon, for instance, is 85%. In other words an O lineman who barely graduates from HS can get into Oregon or Alabama or Arizona State, etc, but not Cal
OL are usually the smartest students when looking by positions
Just for fun, end of season rankings:
Colley Matrix (Bias free starting point and my favorite): #78 (top 3 - Ore, Tex, ND)
Massey composite rankings (68 rankings combined): #65 (Ore, Tex, ND)
The Athletic's all team rankings: #53 (Ore, Tex, ND)
ESPN's Football Power Index Rank: #50 (good for 8th in ACC) (Tex, ND, Ohio State)
Thanks Nick!