It was after the Duke game that I started to think, Justin Wilcox is pretty much gone no matter what. Certainly after another middling/poor season, but even also at 8 wins. Even at 9 wins, I would think that RR would only be interested in a short -term arrangement, not a renewal. He's seen the product on the field and he knows what the last 9 seasons have shown. RR is a smart hard-nosed guy. But he can't really tip his hand publicly. Trust in Ron.
As for this game, Drones running over and then over again on the defense is the unforgivable part. I think Ron would agree.
Wilcox established long ago that while he is able to identify a problem, he is rarely able to actually fix it. As we have seen over, and over, and over again.
Which is simply a stunning indictment of his Head Coaching ability.
He is just extremely slow to adjust to a problem. Once in a while we will see a game with some unexpectedly creative stuff, but mostly it's playing the same old schemes and thinking the players should just be able to execute on them.
This is one of the rare times it really came up on the defensive side. Most of the time it has been on offense: running our small backs (like Ott) into a wall and rarely trying any outside misdirection, simple passing concepts that emphasize safe sideline routes, etc. But still, same problem.
Wilcox coming back next year would be my own, personal hell for watching college football. A true Kobayashi Maru scenario: If next year he wins 7-9 games, then he might get an extension. If he has another 6-6 ish season, then it’s another wasted year. I’m in the, “Let him go early” camp. Don’t worry about competing with the likes of LSU, Penn St, etc. We’re going after a different candidate.
Sycasey: I watched the game with a bunch of Cal alums in San Diego and EVERYBODY was screaming the same thing! WHY AREN'T THEY ADJUSTING TO THE RUN!?!?!?!? You know our coaches suck when they can't make simple adjustments.
Seeing how we live in the era of retribution now, I would like everyone involved with the Wilcox extension to be removed from their post and indicted for conspiracy to defraud the UC regent system out of millions of dollars. That extension was so inexplicable, (even at the time) I can only explain it by collusion. Knowlton at minimum should at least have to face a grand jury panel.
For the record, I really like JW. I also think it’s time for a new coach. The only argument to keep him (even if we win 2 of our remaining games) is to keep JKS around with this coaching staff. I think it’s super unlikely he’s at Cal next year no matter who the coaches are.
It’ll be tough to see ANOTHER Cal QB lighting it up for someone else (I see you Fernando), but that’s the portal for you.
Respectfully, I don’t think the head coach that’s had, what, 0 offensive players taken in the nfl draft, and for two straight seasons, couldn’t make a decisive determination during fall camp that Fernando was the guy is gonna be the one thing that causes JKS to stay.
Even in the best case JKS isn't going to be around for more than 2 more years. The program needs to be strong for much longer than that if Cal football is to survive. Getting a better head coach is way more important than keeping one player.
He's a young man of unusually mature integrity and good character. Like with the exodus last year, I do not begrudge him a business decision, though I pray he stays.
I've been getting more and more disgusted with the state of college football but I keep showing up at Memorial Stadium out of my great love for Cal football. But after 43 years as a season ticket holder I won't be back next season if Justin Wilcox is.
Once again a great write-up, Nick. Always look forward to your post-game thoughts.
Great analysis Nick. The GBs were the worst 5-2 team in the FBS, and now they are the worst 5-3 team. 6-6 is probably the best we can hope for now. New. Regime. Needed. On the 2 late targeting calls, I think the refs did not want to decide the outcome of the gamels. But even if these calls went Cal's way they don't negate almost 400 yards rushing, much on QB option plays that high schools long ago learned to defend.
Hard to say anything good about the way Cal's defense played that is for certain.
However, living on East Coast and having followed ACC football long before Cal joined the conference, I don't know one person among my ACC friends that was expecting Cal to win this game. Cal was nearly a TD underdog by game time. ESPN had VT at 70% probability to win the game. Blacksburg's stadium with 60,000 screaming fans was probably something most of our young Cal players had never experienced before. It is quite a scene down there, for those that were watching a game from there for the first time.
Let's give the offense credit for coming back from the initial 10-0 hole and nearly pulling off an upset in that madness. No interceptions despite the noise level, by our true freshman QB. One dropped TD pass away from a victory. We cannot get into second guessing who should have attempted the last FG. The VT kicker, one of the better ones in the country, had just missed a shorter attempt on home grounds. It is hard to win in the ACC on the road.
Along the same lines, I wouldn't be so quick to write off Cal's chances against Virginia back home in Berkeley. Virginia barely beat North Carolina on the road. The initial betting line is Virginia +4, less than VT was favored over Cal.
We can figure out the coaching situation once the season is done. I believe we just hired a new OC, with a lot of experience and success when he was at Boise State, who is is making some of the calls being questioned. One thing for sure we need to upgrade the talent and depth on the team if we expect to be much more than a 500 team. The current HS class looks more promising than in recent years. That is why Cal hired GM Rivera to figure this all out. Trust the process...
We’re in year 9 of trusting the process. Getting blanked at sdsu and embarrassed at home against duke is not acceptable in year 9. This is a comically weak schedule this year and we’re playing toss-up games with razor thin margins against some of the worst teams in the conference. The head coach is responsible for hiring the assistants and recruiting the players. Wilcox owns those failures of the last 9 years.
Watching the game I had PTSD from Kapernick-led Nevada absolutely destroying us with the QB option as we crashed to the RB time and time again and failed to adjust to stop the repetitiously successful, identical play. Just as then I kept thinking, fake a step towards the RB then DRILL the QB into the ground; he’ll think twice about keeping it next time!
And can SOMEONE put Masses in a tackling drill? I don’t care how many pounds you’re giving up; wrap a guy up at the waist or lower, man….
At least with Kaepernick you can say that he was legitimately a great talent that was hard to stop in any case. He almost won the Super Bowl in his first year as an NFL starter! I don't think Drones is on that level.
We have reached the place where I think any fan with their head not in the sand, the administration and likely even Wilcox himself knows we are in the final stages of the slow procession to his firing. This has been the inevitable end since, pick whatever date you please, but I’m going to go with Colorado 2022. The only question remaining is when. Does he get the rest of the year, or if we lose the next two does Ron pull the ripcord with a bye week before the big game?
There is 0 chance, given how things went at Auburn and how the offense has looked this year, Harsin would be a candidate. In the scenario above, I wouldn’t discount the possibility that RR names himself interim for the last two games.
Nick, great write-up and the two target-not-targeting calls were overruled because the Charlotte ACC crew saw shoulder-to-shoulder contact with the helmets not contacting. I don't know 0 for 2 would be a little bit of bad luck on those considering they were TARGETING calls to overturn. Does that change the outcome of the game?
Once we went to overtime, I think we all knew the only way Cal wins is by self-inflicted VT error (like a fumbled mesh point). Get to 3rd OT and VT is scoring 100/100 times on those 2 yard plays.
And I disagree, this is INCREDIBLE! "The incredible thing isn’t that Cal was defeated by a team running the same zone read play that has been a staple of college football offenses for 20 years over and over and over and over again." He was at UW and U$C during the Mariota / Royce Freeman + Thomas Tyner (and others day). Having no plan/adjustment to the Zone Read for THIS coach is incredible.
Thank you Nick for doing a good job under circumstances that are painful in the extreme.
Go Bears!
It was after the Duke game that I started to think, Justin Wilcox is pretty much gone no matter what. Certainly after another middling/poor season, but even also at 8 wins. Even at 9 wins, I would think that RR would only be interested in a short -term arrangement, not a renewal. He's seen the product on the field and he knows what the last 9 seasons have shown. RR is a smart hard-nosed guy. But he can't really tip his hand publicly. Trust in Ron.
As for this game, Drones running over and then over again on the defense is the unforgivable part. I think Ron would agree.
Zero adjustments.
Wilcox established long ago that while he is able to identify a problem, he is rarely able to actually fix it. As we have seen over, and over, and over again.
Which is simply a stunning indictment of his Head Coaching ability.
He is just extremely slow to adjust to a problem. Once in a while we will see a game with some unexpectedly creative stuff, but mostly it's playing the same old schemes and thinking the players should just be able to execute on them.
This is one of the rare times it really came up on the defensive side. Most of the time it has been on offense: running our small backs (like Ott) into a wall and rarely trying any outside misdirection, simple passing concepts that emphasize safe sideline routes, etc. But still, same problem.
Wilcox coming back next year would be my own, personal hell for watching college football. A true Kobayashi Maru scenario: If next year he wins 7-9 games, then he might get an extension. If he has another 6-6 ish season, then it’s another wasted year. I’m in the, “Let him go early” camp. Don’t worry about competing with the likes of LSU, Penn St, etc. We’re going after a different candidate.
A Wilcox return would be the death of the football program, and subsequently the entire athletic department, as we know it.
Jimmy: You are right about that. If that happens, we may as well bring back Clueless Carol and Know-Nothing Knowlton to run everything.
Exactly. Too much is at stake.
If it is 1990 and Tom Hansen is still running the conference out of a double-wide trailer in Walnut Creek, it’s maybe not as big of a deal.
But look at Oregon State football…if Cal ends up on the outside looking in come 2030 or whenever, it’s ballgame.
There needs to be urgency, everywhere. RR, Lyons, admin, AND perhaps most importantly, the fan base.
Wilcox will not be the coach next year.
Cal team with poor defense. What's even the point of having Justin Wilcox as HC?
The post-game quote from Drones said it all:
https://x.com/SonsofSatVT/status/1981939582565236991
"Drones didn’t expect to run the ball as much as he did tonight but said that Cal never adjusted to it so he had to “keep it rolling.”"
It was pretty obvious to everyone watching that Cal never adjusted, but it's nice to get direct confirmation.
Sycasey: I watched the game with a bunch of Cal alums in San Diego and EVERYBODY was screaming the same thing! WHY AREN'T THEY ADJUSTING TO THE RUN!?!?!?!? You know our coaches suck when they can't make simple adjustments.
Seeing how we live in the era of retribution now, I would like everyone involved with the Wilcox extension to be removed from their post and indicted for conspiracy to defraud the UC regent system out of millions of dollars. That extension was so inexplicable, (even at the time) I can only explain it by collusion. Knowlton at minimum should at least have to face a grand jury panel.
For the record, I really like JW. I also think it’s time for a new coach. The only argument to keep him (even if we win 2 of our remaining games) is to keep JKS around with this coaching staff. I think it’s super unlikely he’s at Cal next year no matter who the coaches are.
It’ll be tough to see ANOTHER Cal QB lighting it up for someone else (I see you Fernando), but that’s the portal for you.
No one here hates him, we're just tired of having to watch and support him.
💯
This is not personal. I think he’s a good dude that loves football, fishing and Cal. Wish it had worked out…shocked he’s had 9 years to prove it.
Jimmy: No kidding. Nine years is enough!
Respectfully, I don’t think the head coach that’s had, what, 0 offensive players taken in the nfl draft, and for two straight seasons, couldn’t make a decisive determination during fall camp that Fernando was the guy is gonna be the one thing that causes JKS to stay.
Yes, because Wilcox has shown so much ability to both retain and develop offensive talent in his 9 years here.
Even in the best case JKS isn't going to be around for more than 2 more years. The program needs to be strong for much longer than that if Cal football is to survive. Getting a better head coach is way more important than keeping one player.
I think we need to rip the Band-Aid off.
If it means a rebuild from ground zero, so be it.
There's no guarantee JKS stays anyway.
He's a young man of unusually mature integrity and good character. Like with the exodus last year, I do not begrudge him a business decision, though I pray he stays.
I've been getting more and more disgusted with the state of college football but I keep showing up at Memorial Stadium out of my great love for Cal football. But after 43 years as a season ticket holder I won't be back next season if Justin Wilcox is.
Once again a great write-up, Nick. Always look forward to your post-game thoughts.
Great analysis Nick. The GBs were the worst 5-2 team in the FBS, and now they are the worst 5-3 team. 6-6 is probably the best we can hope for now. New. Regime. Needed. On the 2 late targeting calls, I think the refs did not want to decide the outcome of the gamels. But even if these calls went Cal's way they don't negate almost 400 yards rushing, much on QB option plays that high schools long ago learned to defend.
Hard to say anything good about the way Cal's defense played that is for certain.
However, living on East Coast and having followed ACC football long before Cal joined the conference, I don't know one person among my ACC friends that was expecting Cal to win this game. Cal was nearly a TD underdog by game time. ESPN had VT at 70% probability to win the game. Blacksburg's stadium with 60,000 screaming fans was probably something most of our young Cal players had never experienced before. It is quite a scene down there, for those that were watching a game from there for the first time.
Let's give the offense credit for coming back from the initial 10-0 hole and nearly pulling off an upset in that madness. No interceptions despite the noise level, by our true freshman QB. One dropped TD pass away from a victory. We cannot get into second guessing who should have attempted the last FG. The VT kicker, one of the better ones in the country, had just missed a shorter attempt on home grounds. It is hard to win in the ACC on the road.
Along the same lines, I wouldn't be so quick to write off Cal's chances against Virginia back home in Berkeley. Virginia barely beat North Carolina on the road. The initial betting line is Virginia +4, less than VT was favored over Cal.
We can figure out the coaching situation once the season is done. I believe we just hired a new OC, with a lot of experience and success when he was at Boise State, who is is making some of the calls being questioned. One thing for sure we need to upgrade the talent and depth on the team if we expect to be much more than a 500 team. The current HS class looks more promising than in recent years. That is why Cal hired GM Rivera to figure this all out. Trust the process...
We’re in year 9 of trusting the process. Getting blanked at sdsu and embarrassed at home against duke is not acceptable in year 9. This is a comically weak schedule this year and we’re playing toss-up games with razor thin margins against some of the worst teams in the conference. The head coach is responsible for hiring the assistants and recruiting the players. Wilcox owns those failures of the last 9 years.
Watching the game I had PTSD from Kapernick-led Nevada absolutely destroying us with the QB option as we crashed to the RB time and time again and failed to adjust to stop the repetitiously successful, identical play. Just as then I kept thinking, fake a step towards the RB then DRILL the QB into the ground; he’ll think twice about keeping it next time!
And can SOMEONE put Masses in a tackling drill? I don’t care how many pounds you’re giving up; wrap a guy up at the waist or lower, man….
At least with Kaepernick you can say that he was legitimately a great talent that was hard to stop in any case. He almost won the Super Bowl in his first year as an NFL starter! I don't think Drones is on that level.
We have reached the place where I think any fan with their head not in the sand, the administration and likely even Wilcox himself knows we are in the final stages of the slow procession to his firing. This has been the inevitable end since, pick whatever date you please, but I’m going to go with Colorado 2022. The only question remaining is when. Does he get the rest of the year, or if we lose the next two does Ron pull the ripcord with a bye week before the big game?
They will let him finish the year. They probably don't want Harsin to win the last 3 games and become a candidate.
There is 0 chance, given how things went at Auburn and how the offense has looked this year, Harsin would be a candidate. In the scenario above, I wouldn’t discount the possibility that RR names himself interim for the last two games.
Thanks Nick.
This remains an incredibly poorly coached program. In year 9. Different position coaches, different coordinators, same error filled results.
maybe having a D coordinator for the secondary and a D coordinator for the front isn't the best idea when you need a whole field adjustment
Nick, great write-up and the two target-not-targeting calls were overruled because the Charlotte ACC crew saw shoulder-to-shoulder contact with the helmets not contacting. I don't know 0 for 2 would be a little bit of bad luck on those considering they were TARGETING calls to overturn. Does that change the outcome of the game?
Once we went to overtime, I think we all knew the only way Cal wins is by self-inflicted VT error (like a fumbled mesh point). Get to 3rd OT and VT is scoring 100/100 times on those 2 yard plays.
And I disagree, this is INCREDIBLE! "The incredible thing isn’t that Cal was defeated by a team running the same zone read play that has been a staple of college football offenses for 20 years over and over and over and over again." He was at UW and U$C during the Mariota / Royce Freeman + Thomas Tyner (and others day). Having no plan/adjustment to the Zone Read for THIS coach is incredible.
So am I crazy to really miss Tim Deruyter's defense?
Given the current circumstances, no, you're not.
It's also okay to miss Gerald Alexander.
It was a thing of beauty. I wish we took him when he left TTech