Post-Game Thoughts: Idaho Football

Cal is dominated by FCS Idaho for 20 minutes and 52 seconds, then Idaho is dominated by Cal for 39 minutes and 8 seconds

Photo via @calfootball twitter

From one perspective, Cal was disturbingly close to losing to an FCS team. Consider:

Idaho gained 17 more yards. Cal had one more first down. Each team was nearly identical on 3rd down conversion rate. Each team averaged 5.4 yards/play over the entire game.

Cal turned the ball over on downs once. Idaho turned the ball over six times in a wide variety of ways.

That’s the game. That’s the difference. Flip a couple 4th down conversions, flip a couple fumbles, and Cal loses to an FCS team.

From another perspective, Cal came out missing something. Maybe it was an bad game plan, or a great one from Idaho. Maybe the team was flat, overlooking Idaho. Whatever, the reason, Cal was thoroughly outplayed for 20 minutes, then thoroughly outplayed Idaho for 40 minutes, and when you outplay a team for 2/3rd of the game you’re probably going to win.

My perspective is that Cal took over at about the point that both of Cal’s lines started to physically dominate Idaho’s lines. Cal could run the ball at will on offense, and get pressure on Idaho on nearly every play. Which is a good thing!

. . . except that Idaho is the last team on the schedule that Cal will be able to beat just via pure physical dominance. Gonna have to figure out other ways to win the rest of the way.

Offense

Efficiency Report

10 drives: 4 touchdowns, 2 FGA (1-2), 3 punts, 1 turnover (downs), 3.1 points/drive.

(removed: Cal’s final

Three phases to this game on offense:

1. Two early drives where Cal couldn’t easily move the ball - 14 plays, 62 yards (4.4 yard/play, no points)

2. Seven drives of physically dominant football in the middle of the game (6.4 yards/play, 31 points)

3. Two clock killer drives when the game was already decided - 9 plays, 22 yards (2.4 yards/play, no points)

Thankfully Cal did a good job cashing in their scoring opportunities to help make this game much more comfortable than it could have been or seemed likely to be. But despite 31 points of scoring, nothing that happened inspired confidence in me for future outings, because . . .

No downfield passing, no party

The overarching problem? Cal completed all of two passes down the field in the entire game - both touchdowns. One appeared to be a blown coverage on a sideline go route to Trond Grizzell, and the other was a frankly frightening throw to Hunter where Cal has two deep routes to nearly the same spot in what I can’t help but assume may have been a route error from somebody.

In short, neither of Cal’s two (again, only two!) downfield completions inspires confidence that more downfield success might be near.

And it wasn’t pressure that caused Cal’s passing game to be so ineffective - Idaho only managed 2 sacks and no other QB hits. Just too many plays where either WRs weren’t open, or Sam Jackson wasn’t able to hit open receivers.

How far can the run game take this offense?

The bad news: Cal was down to two running backs thanks to injury. The good news: Isaiah Ifanse and Ashton Stredick were excellent, as was Jackson as a runner from the QB position. PFF credits them with 19 total missed tackles forced and 169 yards after contact, which may have been the difference in the game.

That’s three games now: Two games with a dominant run game and a passing game that can chip in with a play or two here or there just to keep the defense honest. And one game where the opponent shut down the run game and the offense curled into a ball and died.

Bold prediction: a run game by itself will not be sufficient against anybody else on the schedule except maaaaybe against ASU and Stanford.

Defense

Efficiency Report

10 drives: 2 touchdowns, 1 FGA (1-3), 1 punt, 6 turnovers (1 interception, 2 fumbles, 3 downs), 1.7 points/drive.

One might argue that the difference between Idaho’s first three drives that ended in 17 points and their last seven drives that ended in zero points was turnovers rather than Cal’s defense taking over, so let’s look under the hood:

Idaho drives 1, 2, & 3: 30 plays, 200 yards (6.7 yards/play), 3-6 on 3rd down, 2-2 on 4th down

Idaho drives 4-10: 37 plays, 169 yards (4.6 yards/play), 3-9 on 3rd down, 0-3 on 4th down

I wouldn’t necessarily say that Cal’s defense dominated that last 2/3rd of the game - Idaho managed to move the ball a bit and four of their drives entered Cal territory. But it’s also true that Idaho lost their big play ability (one second half play longer than 11 yards) as their offensive line gradually got overwhelmed and either gave up pressure or committed a holding penalty.

If Idaho hadn’t had to play from behind, they probably kick a field goal or two, but it was also clear throughout the 2nd half that they didn’t have the juice to score touchdowns against Cal’s defense.

So what went wrong early, and what fixed it?

I’m not sure about that first part yet, and plan on trying my best to figure out when I do defensive tape review later this week. But I know a big part of what helped fix it - Xavier Carlton and Myles Jernigan took over the duo were in the backfield constantly, and although they didn’t get many sacks, they forced Idaho to run shorter routes and prevented Idaho’s QB from going through his progressions. Expect more info in the PFF review midweek, but the pressure passing numbers are stark:

Clean protection: 21-30, 7.2 yards/pass
Under pressure: 6-19, 3.3 yards/pass

Early on, Cal wasn’t getting much pressure, but as the game wore on Cal’s OLBs controlled each drive more and more, and Idaho’s offense fell apart as a result.

This is now three straight weeks with solid pressure numbers, but against teams that, for different reasons, probably can’t prepare you for what it will be like to face Michael Penix Jr. and the UW offense. If the Bears can bother that dude, you have my permission to sit up and take notice.

But it wasn’t entirely pass rush

Some of the turnaround was just getting better coverage from the secondary. Idaho’s 4th offensive possession saw the Vandals hit on a couple of passes down the middle to get into plus territory, but then Jeremiah Earby and Patrick McMorris got three pass break-ups in a four play span that created a turnover on downs and a critical stop that allowed the offense to catch-up. On the 4th down, it wasn’t anything but Earby staying step-for-step with his outside receiver on an in breaking route over the middle with no safety help.

Special Teams

JUST FAIR CATCH KICKOFFS

Since nobody listens to me and since I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (and will continue to shout it into the ether from Section R), here’s the annual rant:

Never return kickoffs

Unless or until Cal has a skill position player on the level of a DeSean Jackson (or, maybe, an actual Special Teams coach to design a kick return), Cal is better off just instructing players to automatically fair catch anything kicked deeper than the 10 yard line. The risk (fumble, tackled before the 25, penalty, etc.) is much higher than the reward (starting a drive from the 28 yard line).

Progress?

Michael Luckhurst nailed a 39 yarder, and more or less sent a 42 yarder directly over the bar in a fashion that made partisans like me sure that the refs screwed up. Getting two more game reps on longish field goals is a good thing, and I was not-jokingly calling for Cal to basically manufacture field goal attempts in the 4th quarter to get him live reps once the game had been functionally decided.

Coaching & Errata

Answers have to come quickly now

Pac-12 play is here, and in the next four weeks Cal will play teams ranked #8, #11, and #14. If this team is at any level other than their best, the Bears will be at best 3-4 when they hit their bye week.

Lack of a downfield passing game, a secondary that takes 3 drives to lock in, special teams mistakes . . . any of those kinds of flaws will be fatal against UW, Oregon St., and Utah. We will find out very quickly if this team has a higher gear.

Big Picture

This isn’t a game that changes anything. Ugly enough that those out on the current direction of the program certainly aren’t changing their minds. An ultimately comfortable win for those who like to maintain their optimism for as long as they can plausibly do so.

More than anything, it was the same kind of technically-good-enough-but-too-close-for-comfort FCS win that has been typical for the Wilcox era. Every single year under Wilcox, Cal beats an FCS team by 2-3 scores in a game that is just a little bit iffy, and every single year it has presaged a team that is destined for a sub .500 Pac-12 record.

North Texas seemed to presage something better, something more dynamic. Maybe what this team showed on the road in week 1 is still in there, just waiting to come out at the right opportunity.

But right now, the three games of collective evidence says that this is another team unlikely to get to 5 Pac-12 wins. Which also means that this team would do well to get to 6 wins and a bowl game.

The traditional stats (yards/play, total yards, total offense, scoring offense) all say that UW may have the best offense in the country. The advanced stats say that UW may have the best offense in the country.

Cal’s defense is probably pretty good. Next week, they will need to be elite, and the offense will have to score points. Vegas is extremely skeptical. The season gets real now.