Post-Game Thoughts: USC Football
For 353 days each year, I like to think of myself as a rational person. Or at least as rational as a college football fan can be. I understand how this sport works. I understand that when Cal plays USC, the odds are stacked up against the Bears.
But on game day, I am not a rational person. I am a raving lunatic. I have to actively restrain myself from saying and doing stupid things. My mind makes irrational connections and creates idiotic beliefs because apparently that’s the only way for me to emotionally handle a football game.
Certain factors will magnify this effect. Being in Memorial Stadium. Opponents like USC and Stanford. The collapse of our entire conference that has been the underpinning of our collective fandom for our entire lives. Pre-game drinks.
Which is to say that on Saturday, circumstances maximized my odds for ludicrous thinking.
I saw signs and cosmic insights everywhere. A complete non-sequitor of a pregame protest? Good omen. A Cal fan trying to write a term paper in the student section? Great sign. Even Cal turning the ball over somehow turned into a good omen - in the final game against USC, we’re going to watch Cal make EVERY mistake that we ALWAYS make against USC specifically, and win anyway because this final game against those soulless, arrogant, conference destroying monsters will somehow exorcize all of our bad feelings from decades of sports pain and misery.
And when the Pac-12 refs all but tried to hand USC three free points after halftime, and in a hailstorm of booing USC’s kicker missed, missed badly, missed by a mile, missed by so much that he may as well have kicked the ball backwards . . . surely that was a sign from God that Cal was destined to win this game, that good was going to triumph over evil.
In the moment, football might feel like a morality play but make no mistake:
USC won the football game on the field. Off the field, they won by destroying the ecosystem that made Cal football fun. They and their fans leave with very little understanding of what they have destroyed, and even less guilt.
Offense
Efficiency Report
16 drives: 7 touchdowns, 3 punts, 6 turnovers (3 fumbles, 1 interception, 3 downs), 3.1 points/drive
The topline numbers look great. 29 first downs, 5.6 yards/run, 7.5 yards/pass, 6.5 yards/play, only 3 punts in 16 drives . . . but 6 turnovers is deadly and will typically result in you getting blown out.
Reverse any of 8 plays and Cal probably wins this game
Obviously the final 2 point conversion, but you can throw in all four turnovers plus all three 4th down conversions. Reverse any one of them and there’s pretty decent odds that Cal either scores once more time, or USC scores one fewer time.
I haven’t watched replays of all of these plays because I experienced the pain of all of them in the stadium and have no desire to do so again. So I don’t know the extent to which they were bad/unforced mistakes by Cal vs. good plays by USC. All I know is that it would have taken very little changing to turn this into a deeply cathartic win.
Not sure what happened to the running game other than running out of bodies
177 first half rushing yards, 58 second half rushing yards. Not much else to say that those two numbers don’t illustrate.
Cal has to get Ott and/or Ifanse back healthy. Fernando Mendoza is already a solid Pac-12 QB, but he can’t do it alone. Fernando with a running game supporting him scores 28 points in 6 possessions and doesn’t punt in a half. Fernando without a running game will score, but not nearly as effeiciently or frequently.
Defense
Efficiency Report
17 drives: 7 touchdowns, 2 FGA (1-2) , 7 punts, 1 turnover (fumble), 2.9 points/drive
There’s another version of this game where USC hits their free field goal and doesn’t elect to go for 2 twice and miss twice, and scores 55 points for 3.2 points/possession, but I’m OK crediting the Cal defense for stopping USC from converting on those tries.
In a weird way I didn’t hate this performance?
It feels silly to say that when you let the opponent score 50 points, but USC had an insane 17 possessions thanks to the pace that both teams played at and thanks to Cal’s many, many turnovers. USC’s 6.8 yards/play (once you take out their final 3 kneel-down plays) is roughly how much they put up vs. Utah and Arizona, and only Notre Dame played them better.
Seven times the Bears forced USC to punt after 1 or fewer first downs, and four of USC’s seven touchdowns came on short fields following turnovers. All that against a Heisman winner with all kinds of talent at his disposal.
In short, I think this was the best ever 50-points-allowed-defensive-performance. I realize that this prize is worth exactly nothing and brings comfort to nobody.
Actual pressure!
Three sacks, and per PFF Caleb Williams was pressured on 33% of his dropbacks. There wasn’t one player from Cal’s front that had his way with USC’s offensive line, but rather a collective team effort. I thought that they were particularly effective at pressuring Williams in a way that didn’t create constant scramble opportunities - rushers maintained rush lane integrity and Williams didn’t seem particularly comfortable.
Special Teams
Actually a great day?
I mean, other than the fumbled punt that was a huge part in swinging the game, but that came after the punt was fielded so I dunno it just felt part of the general fumble tapestry Cal wove as a team as opposed to a specific special team failure.
Because Cal had a clear field position advantage all game long thanks to USC stupidly returning a bunch of kickoffs and getting punished. Was it just me or did Michael Luckhurst break out some kind of specialized high hang-time pop-up kickoff that encourages the opponent to attempt a return when they really shouldn’t?
Coaching/Game Theory
Looking at every aggressive decision, individually and in the aggregate
4th and 4 from the USC 34 - a clear go for it situation, we don’t have a kicker who can hit a 50 yarder. Fernando scrambles for it and Cal scores a touchdown. GOOD CALL
4th and 10 from the USC 34, 2:14 left 2nd quarter - a clear go for it situation, we don’t have a kicker who can hit a 50 yarder and you have to trust your defense to defend a long field with minimal time left. GOOD CALL, USC DOESN’T SCORE OFF THE MISS.
4th and 1 from the Cal 45 - If you don’t trust your team to gain a yard you deserve to lose. GOOD DECISION, BAD RESULT, JUST RUN THE QB SNEAK
4th and 4 from the USC 28 - a clear go for it situation, we don’t have a kicker who can hit a 45 yarder. Fernando scrambles for it and Cal scores a touchdown. GOOD CALL.
Going for two to go up 7 points with 20 minutes left in the game. Could Wilcox have surmised that the game still had 13 possessions left? IFFY CALL, GOOD RESULT.
4th and 6 from the USC 37, 4:25 left in a tie game. I dunno, this is a coin flip for me. You play to win the game, and 30 yards of field position (at best) isn’t worth a ton, but 6 yards is a tough conversion. IFFY CALL, BAD RESULT
Going for 2 at the end of the game. Your defense is on fumes and running out of bodies. Your offense is also running out of bodies. Hoping to get one play right seems to be the better call than hoping for variance going your way in OT, plus a bad kicking situation makes OT even scarier. GOOD CALL, BAD REFS, LIFE IS NOT FAIR OR JUST.
Big Picture
I’ll be honest, I’m not really into having another round of Wilcox discourse. Save it for later this year, or even after the season. I’m stuck in my feelings over issues way bigger than any one head coach.
It is deeply fitting that two days after the final Pac-12 conference game against USC, Cal will find out who they play in the ACC over the next few years. I find, as a result, that whatever anger I felt about losing to USC has been transferred to Cal administrators who for the last 10+ years ‘led’ Cal athletics.
It is their leadership that played a huge role in hamstringing Cal on the field so badly that the Cal/USC rivalry ended with USC winning 17 of the last 19 games. It is their leadership that has helped end the rivalry, period.
It is their leadership that has led to a situation where we will be pondering a trip to Boston and considering a conference visit from Louisville. It is their leadership that will end decades-long rivalries with USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Wazzu, Oregon State. It is their leadership that will cost Cal millions upon millions of dollars that will likely result in massive material cuts to Cal athletics programs that many people depend on for their college experience or careers.
Jim Knowlton is not solely responsible, but he deserves to be fired for so many reasons unrelated to Cal’s current plight.
Nick, you were brave to write a column the day after Avi's brilliant piece but you rose to the occasion. You captured the essence of the game and of Cal fandom in these recent dark years. Well done.
Great writing. The article summed up exactly the way I and so many others feel about the game and the demise of the PAC 12 which was started by USC but was not helped to stop it by the inept administrators of Cal and Stanford and probably some other PAC 12 administrations.