I think there is an underestimate of newness, and one that does not go in our favor. You get used to conference foes, you know more or less what to expect year over year. Every week (almost) for us is going to be something new, whereas they only have to prepare for a couple newcomers.
I am focused on how the Bears execute in the first three games. If we go 2-1 and play with poise and look solid, then if we can remain healthy thru the remainder of the season perhaps optimism is called for.
Almost everyone predicted a loss to Florida State. After their loss to Georgia Tech, Florida St. doesn't seem unbeatable. This scrambles all predictions.
I think they were underestimating SMU in Dallas as well. Though after their opener they appear much more beatable now as well. Also being so late in the season it's much more variable.
Predicting anyone's post-Veterans' day games this early is throwing darts in the dark in a windstorm. So much can happen with both personnel losses and team reactions to the season's inevitable good and less than optimal outings.
I do think SMU will be better than last Saturday in Reno suggests. That was at altitude (people routinely underestimate the Nevada/Utah effects, which is much closer to Colorado that the rest of the west), and a road opener. Getting that road win will be a good game to learn from without actually getting an L, and the considerable good fundamentals in that program will shine thru as the season goes on.
I think there is an underestimate of newness, and one that does not go in our favor. You get used to conference foes, you know more or less what to expect year over year. Every week (almost) for us is going to be something new, whereas they only have to prepare for a couple newcomers.
ok who had UC Davis at 55%?
0% chance we go 12-0? Your model is broken. 100% chance we go 16-0, BITCHES!
Technically it's 0.3005% chance of going 12-0, so hope springs eternal
So this would make us roughly 5-3 in the ACC, which I believe would be Wilcox's first ever winning conference record, no?
Good point. That would not only be Wilcox's first winning conference record, but the team's first winning record in conference since 2009
I am focused on how the Bears execute in the first three games. If we go 2-1 and play with poise and look solid, then if we can remain healthy thru the remainder of the season perhaps optimism is called for.
Almost everyone predicted a loss to Florida State. After their loss to Georgia Tech, Florida St. doesn't seem unbeatable. This scrambles all predictions.
Miami & NC St seem to be underestimated by the Cal community though. Should have a better read on Miami especially after their opener vs Florida.
I think they were underestimating SMU in Dallas as well. Though after their opener they appear much more beatable now as well. Also being so late in the season it's much more variable.
Predicting anyone's post-Veterans' day games this early is throwing darts in the dark in a windstorm. So much can happen with both personnel losses and team reactions to the season's inevitable good and less than optimal outings.
I do think SMU will be better than last Saturday in Reno suggests. That was at altitude (people routinely underestimate the Nevada/Utah effects, which is much closer to Colorado that the rest of the west), and a road opener. Getting that road win will be a good game to learn from without actually getting an L, and the considerable good fundamentals in that program will shine thru as the season goes on.