The VOR scale is standard deviation while Old Blues (and Sunshine pumpers) are measuring season wins. If I’m reading your post correctly you may be comparing apples to oranges…..
I'm a very old blue (as a teenager I went to Pappy Waldorf games) and an ex high school and college college football coach and with the advent of new coaching staff and a multitude of new players, I have no idea of what the record will be. I can only hope for a positive season
I am a sunshine pumper before every first game of the season. This is my short term prediction. I am going to drive to Gold Beach, fish for salmon, and drive to Corvallis and watch Cal play football. I am going to catch three big fish and Cal is going to beat the Beavers. My buddy is going to pay me money for his team's loss. Go Bears!
WFC needs to do a feature on Calamo. Is (s)he optimistic in everything? Or a grumpy old bastard that funnels all optimistic feelings into Cal predictions?
There are only about 4 things we can be sure of about Cal football. Sunshine pumping, led by Calimo, rockfights, leading to realizations of DOOOOOMMM, and Fire Wilcox! posts! (Whenever Wilcox leaves regardless of the reason, I suspect those posts, probably pre-scheduled, will continue for a while, then be replaces by "Fire [fill-in-the-blank]!" posts.)
Actually 5, if you count Berkelium's excellent detailed analysis of them. :-)
Did you not see last season? I expect that past performance will predict this year's performance. Lower performance at QB + RB. Lower performance on D in general. This can't mean better performance in close games. As always, I hope I am wrong about our wins and desperately hope I am right that this is Wilcox's last year no matter what (barring a rose bowl win).
Depth chart is out. Some surprises to me but more interested in Berkelium97, Jesse and the team's POV.
OL
1. LaJuan Owens not starting
2. Leon Bell not starting
3. Morrow getting the start
Is that a "wow, some others are really stepping up and Morrow must have really improved a lot in the offseason?" Or "wow, that's concerning that the NIL transfers didn't get into the starting line."
WR
4. Hamper (Idaho) beat out Grayes (OSU)
5. I can't recall anyone writing anything about Dixon-Veal here or hearing HC Wilcox even mention his name and now he's the 2 behind Trond.
LB
6. HC Wilcox was true to his words about Ferrelli.
7. Wow, Tounkara is 4th at edge (he got some playing time last year) so Victor and Okaka are likely to be better than him. That's encouraging for setting the edge and rushing the passer.
8. Who is Jayden Wayne? Similar to #5 above!
My fear: On a special team play we're flagged because 2 #10s - BOTH NAMED JAYDEN - end up on the field together and that little bit of field position causes ... DOOM!
For what it’s worth. What a crappy schedule. How can anyone get excited about watching any of these opponents? The home opener against Texas Southern isn’t going to get people rushing to the box office, lol. No Miami and no Clemson on the schedule, what? I have no idea what this season is going to look like, I think the osu game will be telling. I will key in on the offense, if like many of Cal’s seasons in the past where they had a tough time throwing for over 100 yards, pops it’s head up again, look for a long season ahead. Let’s hope the offense can move the ball, post Fernandez era. I have my doubts, hope I’m wrong. If the offense can’t move the ball, no way this team is better than .500, even with an awful schedule. The fans will run Wilcox out of the building.
Because we play in Friday night in Blacksburg. Go look at a video of their stadium entrance and the stadium’s electric atmosphere. No chance Cal wins there
Because we play in Friday night in Blacksburg. Go look at a video of their stadium entrance and the stadium’s electric atmosphere. No chance Cal wins there
I was living in Virgina last year and three of the peeps on my team at work were Hokies. I am familiar with their stadium entrance, it is electric. Had I not moved to Idaho for a new project I was planning on attending the game.
After the entrance their emotion will subside and they are not a very good team.
Yes, when the fireworks stop, and the game is played, it's just football. Obviously home field matters, more than it should, but we see repeatedly it does not often overcome superior talent or play. If we have a confident, capable team heading in, I'm betting Cal gets down to business and wins on the road there.
But cross-country travel, especially going east, and especially on short week, often do not go well. Especially when you don't have that great an advantage in talent, depth, experience (especially), etc.
Fair point. This chaotic nature of the sport is a large part of why we like it so damn much. As much as we try to simplify it, it defies reduction. Things as trivial as whether your backup RB has a tweaky calf muscle can determine the outcome of the whole game. Despite this truth, I still say if we can go in there with a head of steam and confidence based on performance, I'd give us at least a 50% chance.
It's not a short week because the prior week's game, (NC), is on Friday. Also, the NC game comes after a bi-week and is the second of a two game home stand.
It's not as short as a Saturday-Friday turnaround is, which helps the Bears. But the campus week doesn't change, even if the practice schedule in moved up, and evidence has shown that road teams are generally and still at a disadvantage, for obvious reason, for week night games. This is one that is more manageable for the Bears, but still a difficult challenge at best.
We were a 6-win team that got absolutely dismantled in our bowl game (I know we had sit outs, but that just shows our absolute lack of depth) and then lost all the productive starters on our offense while our defensive strengths got drafted into the NFL.
We're a complete unknown starting a true freshman QB, and while we have a competitive NIL pool it's not at the elite level.
After 9 years, Wilcox has a winning record of 46% and we haven't gotten more than 6 wins in a season (including bowl games) since 2019. Expecting anything different at this point is the definition of insanity.
I'm hoping I'm wrong and JKS blows it out of the water, our OL gels immediately and plays like they've known each other for decades, our WR are finally given enough time to break through the secondary, etc. But until Cal shows us they're capable of that under the current regime, the assumption is that we can't. The benefit of the doubt goes to those that earn it.
7-5 record is ok since Cal really can't compete for the top talent with teams in the BIG and SEC money wise. For instance, we lost a superior TE to Texas because they offered him more than we could pay. Also, if a player can play in one of those conferences instead of the ACC he'll go there. This is all being caused by the NIL and it's ruining college athletics.
I think once Mendoza bailed so quickly after the SMU game others, like Endries, realized it was going to be a rebuild with a new qb and that their best chance to do well, both having NFL aspirations and financial considerations in mind, then entered the portal to find greener pastures.
My present disillusionment, after nearly 70 years of following Cal football (since I was 5 when I lived 5 blocks from the stadium) is at an all-time high and I don't feel that I can ever invest energy, hopes, and aspirations in any Cal athlete again, like I have in the past with so many favorite players over the years. I think there have been major serious disappointments before, that were far worse than where we current are (Joe Roth's passing, never making it back to the Rose Bowl - yes, I remember watching the game in black and white, and Mike White's firing to name a few).
That said, I do have a favorite player to watch and cheer on, that being Trond Grizzell! Also, JKS, as I was there at the Elite 11 in June, 2024 admiring his abilities as he went from somewhat of an uncommitted unknown to a 5* qb who is now our starting qb.
To all of our athletes I wish them good luck, good health, and may they perform as well as they can as the move forward through their seasons this year. May they all be proud our their abilities and accomplishments!
Lastly, I think everyone should remember what I learned when my son was on the team in the 90's, we as fans never have the right too feel worse (unless you bet your retirement on Cal covering the spread) than the players do themselves after a loss; that was me before I meet and knew the kids who were inside those helmets.
Geoff: In an interview with Sports Illustrated and Jeff Farudo, Endries said that his decision really didn't have much to do with money (he said that Cal's offer was competitive). The biggest reasons why he left are because A) He has graduated and B) Texas has a chance to play for a national championship and Cal does not (nobody could fault him on that one). Cal will have to leverage assets besides money (academics, networking, etc.) to be competitive with other P4 programs in terms of recruiting. If Notre Dame, Duke, the 'Furd, etc., can do it, so can we.
Do you actually know that it was the money? By all accounts, our NIL (until it was recently folded into the Caliber program) was competitive. I’m not challenging you - just was curious whether this is a known fact.
I doubt if we offered Endries the same as Texas. Maybe we did but I also think the transferring of all the RB's and some of the WR's plus Mendoza was the advent of Harsin. I'm not sold on him
That's a definite possibility since his mom is suffering from a serious medical condition and she does try and go to as many games as she can. If both of her boys are playing at the same school it would be much better for her.
Interesting that Old Blues are not far off from Voice of Reason, while Sunshine Pumpers are in their own alternate universe
The VOR scale is standard deviation while Old Blues (and Sunshine pumpers) are measuring season wins. If I’m reading your post correctly you may be comparing apples to oranges…..
excluding outliers, Old Blues expect 4-5 wins while Voice of Reason expects 5-6 wins. Meanwhile the lowest Sunshine Pumper is at 9 wins
I'll outlier you
I'm a very old blue (as a teenager I went to Pappy Waldorf games) and an ex high school and college college football coach and with the advent of new coaching staff and a multitude of new players, I have no idea of what the record will be. I can only hope for a positive season
I am a sunshine pumper before every first game of the season. This is my short term prediction. I am going to drive to Gold Beach, fish for salmon, and drive to Corvallis and watch Cal play football. I am going to catch three big fish and Cal is going to beat the Beavers. My buddy is going to pay me money for his team's loss. Go Bears!
I'm with Coach Rivera, that 8-9 wins is the floor. If we don't do that, I'm certain RR will make a change at HC.
Gotta love Remember the Calimo for sticking to his/ her guns! Sunshine Pumping Hall of Fame! GoBears
WFC needs to do a feature on Calamo. Is (s)he optimistic in everything? Or a grumpy old bastard that funnels all optimistic feelings into Cal predictions?
Or maybe Calimo is just satanically sadistic!
There are only about 4 things we can be sure of about Cal football. Sunshine pumping, led by Calimo, rockfights, leading to realizations of DOOOOOMMM, and Fire Wilcox! posts! (Whenever Wilcox leaves regardless of the reason, I suspect those posts, probably pre-scheduled, will continue for a while, then be replaces by "Fire [fill-in-the-blank]!" posts.)
Actually 5, if you count Berkelium's excellent detailed analysis of them. :-)
Did you not see last season? I expect that past performance will predict this year's performance. Lower performance at QB + RB. Lower performance on D in general. This can't mean better performance in close games. As always, I hope I am wrong about our wins and desperately hope I am right that this is Wilcox's last year no matter what (barring a rose bowl win).
Go Bears! But 12-0?
Depth chart is out. Some surprises to me but more interested in Berkelium97, Jesse and the team's POV.
OL
1. LaJuan Owens not starting
2. Leon Bell not starting
3. Morrow getting the start
Is that a "wow, some others are really stepping up and Morrow must have really improved a lot in the offseason?" Or "wow, that's concerning that the NIL transfers didn't get into the starting line."
WR
4. Hamper (Idaho) beat out Grayes (OSU)
5. I can't recall anyone writing anything about Dixon-Veal here or hearing HC Wilcox even mention his name and now he's the 2 behind Trond.
LB
6. HC Wilcox was true to his words about Ferrelli.
7. Wow, Tounkara is 4th at edge (he got some playing time last year) so Victor and Okaka are likely to be better than him. That's encouraging for setting the edge and rushing the passer.
8. Who is Jayden Wayne? Similar to #5 above!
My fear: On a special team play we're flagged because 2 #10s - BOTH NAMED JAYDEN - end up on the field together and that little bit of field position causes ... DOOM!
I think Jayden Wayne came up randomly in a press interview as someone who was impressing hard.
For what it’s worth. What a crappy schedule. How can anyone get excited about watching any of these opponents? The home opener against Texas Southern isn’t going to get people rushing to the box office, lol. No Miami and no Clemson on the schedule, what? I have no idea what this season is going to look like, I think the osu game will be telling. I will key in on the offense, if like many of Cal’s seasons in the past where they had a tough time throwing for over 100 yards, pops it’s head up again, look for a long season ahead. Let’s hope the offense can move the ball, post Fernandez era. I have my doubts, hope I’m wrong. If the offense can’t move the ball, no way this team is better than .500, even with an awful schedule. The fans will run Wilcox out of the building.
Fernandez? Typo or did you really call him that for the last two seasons?
Why is Virginia Tech a favorite over CAL?
Because we play in Friday night in Blacksburg. Go look at a video of their stadium entrance and the stadium’s electric atmosphere. No chance Cal wins there
Because we play in Friday night in Blacksburg. Go look at a video of their stadium entrance and the stadium’s electric atmosphere. No chance Cal wins there
I was living in Virgina last year and three of the peeps on my team at work were Hokies. I am familiar with their stadium entrance, it is electric. Had I not moved to Idaho for a new project I was planning on attending the game.
After the entrance their emotion will subside and they are not a very good team.
I hope we prevail in Blacksburg.
Yes, when the fireworks stop, and the game is played, it's just football. Obviously home field matters, more than it should, but we see repeatedly it does not often overcome superior talent or play. If we have a confident, capable team heading in, I'm betting Cal gets down to business and wins on the road there.
But cross-country travel, especially going east, and especially on short week, often do not go well. Especially when you don't have that great an advantage in talent, depth, experience (especially), etc.
Fair point. This chaotic nature of the sport is a large part of why we like it so damn much. As much as we try to simplify it, it defies reduction. Things as trivial as whether your backup RB has a tweaky calf muscle can determine the outcome of the whole game. Despite this truth, I still say if we can go in there with a head of steam and confidence based on performance, I'd give us at least a 50% chance.
It's not a short week because the prior week's game, (NC), is on Friday. Also, the NC game comes after a bi-week and is the second of a two game home stand.
It's not as short as a Saturday-Friday turnaround is, which helps the Bears. But the campus week doesn't change, even if the practice schedule in moved up, and evidence has shown that road teams are generally and still at a disadvantage, for obvious reason, for week night games. This is one that is more manageable for the Bears, but still a difficult challenge at best.
We were a 6-win team that got absolutely dismantled in our bowl game (I know we had sit outs, but that just shows our absolute lack of depth) and then lost all the productive starters on our offense while our defensive strengths got drafted into the NFL.
We're a complete unknown starting a true freshman QB, and while we have a competitive NIL pool it's not at the elite level.
After 9 years, Wilcox has a winning record of 46% and we haven't gotten more than 6 wins in a season (including bowl games) since 2019. Expecting anything different at this point is the definition of insanity.
I'm hoping I'm wrong and JKS blows it out of the water, our OL gels immediately and plays like they've known each other for decades, our WR are finally given enough time to break through the secondary, etc. But until Cal shows us they're capable of that under the current regime, the assumption is that we can't. The benefit of the doubt goes to those that earn it.
7-5 record is ok since Cal really can't compete for the top talent with teams in the BIG and SEC money wise. For instance, we lost a superior TE to Texas because they offered him more than we could pay. Also, if a player can play in one of those conferences instead of the ACC he'll go there. This is all being caused by the NIL and it's ruining college athletics.
Ken Stumpf
2m
Edited
I think once Mendoza bailed so quickly after the SMU game others, like Endries, realized it was going to be a rebuild with a new qb and that their best chance to do well, both having NFL aspirations and financial considerations in mind, then entered the portal to find greener pastures.
My present disillusionment, after nearly 70 years of following Cal football (since I was 5 when I lived 5 blocks from the stadium) is at an all-time high and I don't feel that I can ever invest energy, hopes, and aspirations in any Cal athlete again, like I have in the past with so many favorite players over the years. I think there have been major serious disappointments before, that were far worse than where we current are (Joe Roth's passing, never making it back to the Rose Bowl - yes, I remember watching the game in black and white, and Mike White's firing to name a few).
That said, I do have a favorite player to watch and cheer on, that being Trond Grizzell! Also, JKS, as I was there at the Elite 11 in June, 2024 admiring his abilities as he went from somewhat of an uncommitted unknown to a 5* qb who is now our starting qb.
To all of our athletes I wish them good luck, good health, and may they perform as well as they can as the move forward through their seasons this year. May they all be proud our their abilities and accomplishments!
Lastly, I think everyone should remember what I learned when my son was on the team in the 90's, we as fans never have the right too feel worse (unless you bet your retirement on Cal covering the spread) than the players do themselves after a loss; that was me before I meet and knew the kids who were inside those helmets.
Go Bears Forever ... and I mean it!!
Wonderful comment Ken - hoping to see you more in these comments. Please don’t lose energy! We need old faithfuls!
Geoff: In an interview with Sports Illustrated and Jeff Farudo, Endries said that his decision really didn't have much to do with money (he said that Cal's offer was competitive). The biggest reasons why he left are because A) He has graduated and B) Texas has a chance to play for a national championship and Cal does not (nobody could fault him on that one). Cal will have to leverage assets besides money (academics, networking, etc.) to be competitive with other P4 programs in terms of recruiting. If Notre Dame, Duke, the 'Furd, etc., can do it, so can we.
Do you actually know that it was the money? By all accounts, our NIL (until it was recently folded into the Caliber program) was competitive. I’m not challenging you - just was curious whether this is a known fact.
I doubt if we offered Endries the same as Texas. Maybe we did but I also think the transferring of all the RB's and some of the WR's plus Mendoza was the advent of Harsin. I'm not sold on him
Maybe Fernando wanted to play with his younger brother Alberto at Indiana.
That's a definite possibility since his mom is suffering from a serious medical condition and she does try and go to as many games as she can. If both of her boys are playing at the same school it would be much better for her.