Rating the Bears: Cal vs. Leland Stanford Junior University
In which the game transcends numbers
Previews of major rivalry games often discard objective measures evaluating the teams because statistics rarely capture the outsized effect of subjective measures shaping what unfolds on the field. This was clearly reflected by the surprising success of a Lobsterbacks team that carried a two touchdown lead late into the third quarter despite being a 3-win team who entered the game as a double-digit underdog. For many of us, this one means more than any other game on the calendar. As a result, no other game’s ratings are so outcome-dependent as our annual Big Game ratings. If Cal wins, take whatever the ratings are and subtract 15-20 points for a more accurate assessment and if Cal loses (thankfully those are rare occurrences lately) add about 15-20 points. Wins have a way of inflating these scores just as much as losses have a way of deflating them. And I’m perfectly okay with that. In a college football landscape that would have been nigh-unrecognizable a few years ago, it’s nice to see that games like this are still hugely important to this fanbase. Even if that means our results are heavily shaped by subjective aspects of the game.
Rating the Bears
I haven’t gone back to compare all the ratings from this season (we’ll do that in December or January), but this one has an increasingly common statistical profile (in wins, at least). Pass offense and overall lead the way, both defensive categories sit just behind those two leaders, coaching sits a little farther down the ladder, and rush offense lags well behind the other categories. If this team had a merely average offensive line we may be heading into Dallas with ACC title hopes in mind. Alas, SMU has thrived in the new ACC and we have not and our predictions of a win have been nearly halved since August.
Ratings Comparison
Oh look, an opponent with whom we have some recent history. That means this week can compare Saturday’s ratings to all our previous Big Game ratings.
Run offense was much worse than usual, special teams was about typical, and everything else had better-than-usual ratings for a Big Game. Pass offense and pass defense especially excelled. The most volatile ratings in Big Game ratings (as evidenced by their longer boxes), coaching and overall fared better than usual.
The next chart compares these ratings to all previous games in the Wilcox Era.
Pass offense remains in the top quartile and run offense remains in the lower quartile. Otherwise, everything else remains somewhere between typical and better-than-usual.
Awards
We have our usual troika of awards for the best, worst, and most reasonable grades.
Sunshine Pumpers
First, the highest grades of the week.
Are we so spoiled by recent Big Game success that this only warrants three perfect scores?
Old Blues
Next, the lowest grades of the week.
I don’t blame any of you for giving such low scores. Heading into the 4th quarter I was ready to drop 0s across the board in my ratings.
The Voice of Reason
Finally, those whose grades were closest to the community average.
Onwards to the comments. I trust you all had an enjoyable time watching this one.
Comments
Any comments on the gameday experience?
Willis Chong: Packed stands. It didn't rain. Cal won. A good day
Calboy76: The first quarter looked like Syracuse was still playing the Bears. But somehow Mendo found his magic in the 4th quarter.
TKE Prytanis 79: So great to see a sellout crowd on TV...and again, the ACC announcers were great, in the game, and celebratory of all things Big Game!
sacman701: The other team I follow is Michigan: I spent 9 years there after my 4 at Cal. They played at the same time Cal did, and I was able to watch both games at once with my tv service provider's quadvision. The other two games were ASU-BYU and SDSU-Utah St.
Frisco Bear: Late arriving crowd. Not enough electric security gates to scan people in a timely manner. Ultimately they just let everyone through without checking them for metal/weapons. So much for security.
Crowd didn't show up until 2nd quarter. Neither did the Cal defense. Only one TD drive the last 45 minutes. Shut them down when they had to. Offense got lucky but did what they had to.
Fortunately Stanford lost that game in a typiCAL fashion. Karmic justice that Cal got to experience being on the other side of a 2+ score meltdown.
BlueDuck16: Live abroad. Watched online. Elated to see Memorial so full.
Tangtpt: The first time that I can remember actually being angry at the athletic department at gameday. North tunnel entrance was a mess because the megnetometers went down. For a while, they were screening everyone by hand until someone woke up and just let us in...still missed half of the first quarter, though. Just awful.
Fourth quarter was amazing, but everything leading up to it was painful.
1988goldenbear: Whose axe? OUR AXE!!! Nothing better than a Big Game win!
sacalum: The downpour ended shortly before kickoff -- what a sign! The crowd was electric in the 4th quarter.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Well, the early morning forecast was a bigger liar than a furd crypto founder. Our tailgate got absolutely dumped on, and we should have listened to our fearless leader and moved to one of the lower parking structure levels in Lower Hearst. That being said, the sun came out, and the only thing not dried up were furd tears. Stressful but in the end a day when the Bears win the Axe is always a splendid one.
What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?
trilljester: Let's just forget about the first half and focus on the 4th quarter. Fernando finally had some protection and was able to get those crucial 3rd and 4th down passes. But for the majority of the game he was running for his life since there was barely any pass protection.
The Ghost of Joe Roth: There is only one thing to say, "GO BEARS FOREVER!" -Fernando Mendoza
sacman701: Mendoza did good things with his arm and his feet, and the receivers played well. The pass protection was spotty as usual, as we yielded 6 sacks to a Furd defense that came in with just 18 through 6 games.
Kj1980: Mendoza made it happen when it mattered. He missed many passes in quarters 1-3. His O line was weak and he took to many sacks.
GoldenBear88: It really came alive when we needed it in the fourth quarter but our O-line continues to be the biggest source of frustration for this team. There is no way that the Furd, one of the worst defenses in college football, should get six sacks.
AKBear: Nando and the WRs made key plays at key times to keep drives going in the second half after not being able to do much in the first half.
Frisco Bear: Fernando is a freaking Warrior! Our offensive line is still offensive.
Old Bear 71: Fernando is good. Give some protection and he is really good. Protection and time moves him to dominant. Receivers , all eight of them, were in place and sticky fingered.
Tangtpt: Nando was off again, but to put together a 98 yard drive to win the game was unbelievable. He is the toughest quarterback I've seen at Cal since Mike Pawlawski.
CalvNavy1963: Nice to see Mendoza and squad come alive in the 4th quarter. They flipped the season's script!
1988goldenbear: Clutch performance by Mendoza and the receivers, amazing fingertip grab by Brady after being held up. O-line almost got Nando killed a few times though…
What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?
trilljester: Fairly mediocre for the backs this week. No explosive runs and less than a hundred yards on the ground.
wiata78: Still not very good, but good enough to be helpful.
sacman701: Again the backs had no room: they had 15 carries with a long of 7 and an average of barely 2. The line just doesn't get a push nearly often enough to rely on the run game at all. The one bright spot was the first down to ice the game. The scrambles don't count here, as those are designed pass plays.
BerkeleyRich: Still looking for O line to come together for some domination, SMU possible?
Frisco Bear: JET is a great back. Have to run him around the ends for him to be effective. Ott is still hurt, and it shows. Cal only got 65 rushing yards. 40 if you factor out Fernando and only 32 from the RBs. Not. Good. At. All.
The line reminds me of "The Five Turnstiles" of Art Shell's 2nd stint w/the Raiders...everyone gets through. IF we can keep our non graduating players and add some linemen that can block, next year has potential. Otherwise, more of the same...
BlueDuck16: Fine. Still nothing consistent and that’s not a good thing to. Concerned that Nando is our leading rusher.
GlueAndBold: Irrelevant outside of Mendoza's one big run.
Texashaterforlife: almost non existent. has to start with the O-line. needs to get stronger and stay healthy for the future.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Sigh. Another day, another complete lack of influencing the defense. When you two quarterbacks are your leading rushers, your offensive line is fully broken. I have no idea how we convince any of our talented backs to return next year.
What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?
The Ghost of Joe Roth: Daniels is not very good but who cares? Go Bears!
Calboy76: Just. Good. Enough. The final stop was epic .
sacman701: Very solid after the first quarter. We slapped a lot of passes down and harassed Daniels enough to prevent Furd from getting any rhythm. The contain on scrambles could have been better.
GoldenBear88: Solid. Held Daniels to 139 yards passing. Let's hope that they can do the same thing against SMU.
Frisco Bear: They were like a stick of butter to Ashton Daniels' hot knife in the first quarter. Then they figured it out (with the exception of the first drive of the 2nd half). Held them to their average points allowed.
Old Bear 71: Against furd’s last series they showed us what our Bears can do when the energy and passion are pumping. Can we see that in Texas next week?!
Tangtpt: A couple of great individual plays in the 2nd half (the Nohl PBU was great, but I'm not sure he couldn't have picked it), but the first half was rough.
CalvNavy1963: Porous and soft for three quarters of the game. Golden when it counted.
sacalum: That pass break-up by Hearns was a classic! Overall, the DBs played lights out!
What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?
The Ghost of Joe Roth: Great!
wiata78: Played will in the 4th quarter. Maybe, even though our defense gets gassed, the Furd offense was more gassed.
GoldenBear88: Solid bordering on outstanding. Held Daniels to 63 yards rushing. Does the 'Furd have any running backs or do they just like the QB to do all of the runs?
BerkeleyRich: Bears appeared to be unaware that Stanfools rushing was mostly from QB
BlueDuck16: We just don’t seem to have the press we used to. We get good pressure but we just can’t seem to get that final push to finish it early. Certainly bend not break, but I seem to remember our defense would shut down. I miss that.
Old Bear 71: Second half super.
Tangtpt: Best unit on the field given furd's run heavy offense. You're going to give up yards because of their quarterback, but they did what they had to.
1988goldenbear: Lost containment of the running QBs multiple times, but it looks like they adjusted after a bit.
sacalum: At times, it seemed that Daniels could get running yardage anytime he wanted to.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Very ineffective in the first half, much better in the second half. We've struggled all year against mobile quarterbacks, so nothing was different today.
What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?
Willis Chong: Ffs, you can fair catch a KO outside the end zone for a touchback. It's like we don't have an ST coach. Oh wait...
Calboy76: Didn't kill the outcome. One long miss by Coe but his done a super job after being benched for 99.
sacman701: 1/2 on long field goals is ok. Fumbling a kickoff return is not, especially since we should be fair catching those in the first place. We seldom get back to the 25.
GoldenBear88: Nice to see Coe nail a decisive field goal from long distance. It's a nail-biter every time he comes out but he didn't let us down today.
BerkeleyRich: Coverage good, punting a bit off from excellent this season, FG continue to be most excitement in college football
BlueDuck16: Why do we go for a 2 point conversion seemingly all the time. I don’t know often we actually do it but it feels like it and we usually don’t convert. The first attempt forced us to attempt the second and I don’t think we should continue to make it a regular thing. Other than that, they did what they needed to do.
Goldenone: One for two on field goals but the made one was the margin of victory coupled with the Bears final successful two point conversion
CalvNavy1963: Coe came through, happily. Lachlan was dependable as usual. Oy-oy!
sacalum: Except for the fumbled kick off, a solid game for the special teams -- particularly smothering 'Furd on the botched fake field goal.
What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?
The Ghost of Joe Roth: Nothing negative today!
Calboy76: The first half was so painful to watch. It's like Groundhog Day from last week. But the adjustments in the 2nd half were just enough.
sacman701: We got obliterated in the first quarter and kept returning kickoffs that we should have fair caught. On the other hand: (1) we made good adjustments after the first quarter, (2) the team never panicked even when all of the hinge plays went against us, (3) we recognized that our running game is only there to keep opponents from completely selling out against the pass, and just 15 of our 66 plays (kneel downs don't count) were handoffs, (4) the decision to kick the field goal down 21-7 was the percentage play and turned out to be the difference in the final score, and (5) the shovel pass on the 2 point conversion was a good idea.
Kj1980: Is there any? The team came out lethargic and uninspired. And this was the BIG GAME!!!!! Who knows what the game plan was? What was the defensive plan? Offensive plan?
GoldenBear88: I'm somewhat baffled as to why Bloesch keeps calling plays that are runs up the middle or Mendoza dropping back into a pocket. For the most part the run plays always get stuffed and when Mendoza drops back instead of rolls out, he gets crushed. I know that we have to keep defenses guessing but, with a very few exceptions (like Thomas' touchdown runs up the middle against Auburn and Syracuse), they don't seem to work, so why keep calling them?
BerkeleyRich: Responded better in the 2nd half, comeback win worthy of praise. Prep for Stanfurd offense was weak.
Goldenone: Some adjustments made in the second half were important but it all really started and ended with Nando's play not coaching wisdom by any means
GlueAndBold: Credit for the comeback but it was only Stanford's incompetence that allowed us to win.
1988goldenbear: Came out so flat again, so disappointing in THIS game. But they were able to rally in the second half. Need a better plan and prep next week and in the bowl game.
BearsWillEndMyLife: You'd expect a good coaching staff to quickly overwhelm a clearly inferior team, but they were able to gameplan in the fourth quarter when we needed it most. This win easily saved Wilcox's job for at leat next year, if not for the remainder of his contract.
BrooklynBear: Best coaching moment: Coach on the sideline who moves Marcus Harris away after 3rd and 15. Could envision some rando ACC ref throwing a flag there [link to highlight of said play]
Then on Lamson's TDs why are Reese and edge guys out there. We need an opposite of NASCAR package.
What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?
trilljester: Huge comeback win to keep The Axe and getting bowl eligibility. Was legit worried that Cal would lose and miss a bowl opportunity. As fun as it would be, I just don't see Cal taking down SMU.
The Ghost of Joe Roth: GO BEARS FOREVER
Calboy76: Surreal ending but it's The Big Game. Wilcox has owned Furd.
TKE Prytanis 79: We are effing going to a Bowl game and have won 4 Big Games in a row, in front of a sellout crowd with Cal legends in the house....we CAN have nice things. Now, psyched for SMU where we have nothing to lose and everything to prove. GO BEARS!!!!
sacman701: Shaky performance against a shaky opponent, but ultimately the team showed impressive mental toughness and we made the plays we needed to make to seal the win. As always, run blocking and pass blocking were the two biggest problems. The defense has been pretty solid all year and held up extremely well after the first quarter. And the big picture: for the fourth straight year, Wilcox does just enough to keep his job.
GoldenBear88: This was a fantastic game because WE WOULD NOT QUIT!!!!! For once, the other team collapsed in the fourth quarter instead of us.
Ron: Played far better, both offensively and defensively, in 2H. Really proud of the defense for stepping up big time in 4Q, preserving the win for us in my opinion. Second game in a row that we have come out flat. This is a coaching issue. The coaches need to fire up and effectively motivate the entire team from the very first snap!
BerkeleyRich: Big Game win, continued Axe ownership, You Know It …
AKBear: The Big Game is special, always will be and this game did not disappoint.
RememberTheCalamo: I have mixed feelings. Bowl games are good for the program but Cal should have the decency to rank high enough to go to a bowl game with a stupid name. Who wants a shirt that says LA Bowl on it when you could have a shirt that says Duke's Mayo Bowl?
BlueDuck16: We beat Stanfurd, we kept the axe, the world is glorious. I felt like we played down to their level though. The 4th quarter was absolutely fantastic and the team I remember we were earlier in the year. I don’t think we’ll beat SMU, but if they can bring this energy, we have a chance. Go Bears!!
Goldenone: The Drive will be remembered for a long time as part of Big Game lore. Fortunately the hibernating Bears woke up in the second half. At the end of the day Cal made just enough clutch plays to snatch the victory from the Tree.
Tangtpt: We got the Axe, and that's what's most important. We're going bowling, and that's great. SMU is going to be rough, but at least the boys can play somewhat loose knowing that they will play in the postseason.
CalvNavy1963: Cal won the Big Game. All that counts this week.
oski94: A tough game to watch but a thrilling finish from a resilient Cal team that didn't quit. I am proud of our Bears.
Bowlesman80: We stole The Axe.
How, it doesn't matter, but this team did not quit, even though they easily could have.
BearsWillEndMyLife: We beat furd and that's all that matters. I don't know what we have to do to convince Nando not to transfer to Miami next year.
Thanks to all who participated! Check back Saturday evening for our final regular-season ratings form of the year.