Rating the Bears: Cal vs. NC State Football

A copy + paste game

Photo credit: @cal_football

I’m starting to feel like I should write some boilerplate for the introduction to this series and copy+paste it into each week’s piece. After all, we see the exact same story every week: Cal seems poised to win but a combination of a defensive collapse and an inability to bleed the clock allow the opponent to make a late, decisive score. And the close nature of the loss brings extra scrutiny to a variety of questionable decisions made throughout the game. As a result, a couple categories are rated well, coaching is rated poorly, and our predictions of a win the following week sink dramatically.

Well, well, well. Look at that. A couple categories are rated well, coaching is rated poorly, and our predictions of a win have sunk dramatically. Run defense leads the way, followed by pass offense. Nearly everything else is in the 40s—not abysmal, but far from good. And coaching once again earns the lowest scores of the week. Predictions of a win over our former Pac-12/10/8 brethren have been halved since our preseason predictions.

Interestingly, this is another week where each category has huge standard deviations. Once again, our grades are all over the place.

Ratings Comparison

Comparing Saturday’s grades to the rest of the Wilcox Era, the results are not good.

Comparing Saturday’s grades (gold) to all other grades in the Wilcox Era.

Pass offense and run defense sit slightly better than usual, while everything else is substantially worse than usual. Run offense, special teams, coaching, and overall all sit in their respective bottom 25th percentiles.

Awards

Next, our usual array of awards.

Old Blues

First, the lowest scores of the week.

We’ve seen goose eggs the last several weeks, but now they are multiplying...

Sunshine Pumpers

Next, our highest grades of the week.

2-4 were surprisingly close, separated by only 5 points on a 700-point scale.

The Voice of Reason

Finally, we have the grades that were closest to the community average. This award has been particularly difficult to achieve consistently due to the huge standard deviations in the ratings.

Next, our comments of the week.

Comments

Any comments on the gameday experience?

Sadbear: No one showed up, students have moved on from this garbage team

Skullgata: Wasn’t there. Going next week.

jakewebs: Back to the normal crowds after Miami. Wilcox had a chance to change the direction of the program and he blew it. Now we are just waiting to die.

RememberTheCalamo: My circumstances have changed such that the time zones don't work out to watch cal even if I could figure out a VPN to do so. When this season started I had really bad FOMO. Now I don't.

AKBear: Too much playing not to lose.

Too much dinking and

dunking with the pass game.

Not able to get off the field when one more stop was needed.

Not able to sustain drives.

Not able to make a chip shot FG once again.

Cal fans deserve better.

I will not give up on the team.

Bowlesman80: Decided to make Calgrimage.

Climbed steps from BART, climbed damned hill, looked all over in vain for W4C kiosk, climbed more steps, sat in Section AA through mid 3rd quarter, and got up to go to bathroom while Cal was ahead. Since Cal was dominating and I missed family, decided to get a head start on BART. By the time I got to Evans Field, game was over. Emptiness ensued. Met a fellow Bear, Jack, who, though he is a season ticket holder, felt the same when I shared that I "just can't take emotionally investing anymore," and he also shared that he plans on skipping the OSU game. Then, it dawned on me, this NC State loss is on me folks, my presence after an eight year hiatus has upset the karmic balance and Cal is being punished for my insolence.

Whew. If you'll excuse me, I'll be making prayers and supplications to Oski in my private chapel of perpetual grief.

Oh, I came up with my own chant, when Nohl Williams got the bogus PI call:

ACC- All Call Crooked.

1988goldenbear: Beautiful day at Memorial, student section about 1/2 full, blow a double-digit lead, miss a short FG under pressure, make an opposing qb look like a Heisman candidate - this story is getting old.

59RoseBowl: Beautiful day in Berkeley - until I watched that game.

Oldcalfan: Another Cal "fold'. Historically this has happened way too many times.

CALBEARZ1: DJ settled down for this game, but still a tad too loud.

What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?

HaasBear: We run a million bubble screens but never any deep shots off of them, seems like coaching 101.

Skullgata: Offensive line is terrible. No time to let routes develop. QB is getting killed.

Big Dog: Nando holds the ball too long. We give up sacks when they rush 3? Unacceptable

Kj1980: Mendoza had a solid game and hit a variety of receivers. He's getting hit way too much, including a blind side hit that could have broken him in half.

the townie: Don’t know if it’s the calls or the players but running patterns short of the sticks can’t happen. It relies on a missed tackle to convert. Why chance it? Inexcusable on third or fourth down. When you’re constantly in third and long and have to throw to convert the receiver has to get beyond the sticks. It’s basic football.

Ron: The OL is beyond pathetic. Giving no time for Nando and allowing way too many sacks and hurries. Start the turnaround by hiring a top tier full time OL coach!

sacman701: Dinked and dunked effectively most of the time, but really got crippled by sacks and penalties.

MoochPunt: I liked the designed roll outs, inside screens and shovel pass to begin the game.

Where were those plays in the 4th quarter with the game on the line? The Cal O-line couldn’t stop the edge rush and Mendoza was left to be a target.

1988goldenbear: Nothing open deep, lucky that a few of those bubble screens were not picked, and once again an overmatched o-line. I don’t think NC State was even blitzing much - they got tons of pressure rushing 3 or 4.

59RoseBowl: Once again, pretty good between the 30s and then disappears in the red zone.

Oldcalfan: Very poor on crucial third downs.

CALBEARZ1: O-line needs to protect the QB far better.

What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?

HaasBear: Solid, outside of the fumble they were very productive.

Kj1980: Except for the 1st quarter long touchdown run, the run offense took the afternoon off. Ott did not play. There is no consistent run game. That hurts the pass game.

fuzzywuzzy: Other than the two TD's...not dependable. Without a better run game, 20-25 points will probably be the limit; no game on the rest of the schedule looks easy.

the townie: Still can’t run the ball. Take away the long run and the run game is awful. Still.

Ron: It hurts not having Ott, game after game.

MoochPunt: Jet Thomas is tough, fast and powerful.

There weren’t enough holes opened up.

Justin Wilcox wants to play football like Wisconsin. Open up a 2 score lead and run the ball down their throats to win time of possession. But we don’t have the O-Line to do that. Somehow, after 7 years, we still have an Air Raid type of offense with lots of skill player depth and no O-line depth. If the game plan is to run quick slants and just have the Offensive line keep the hands of the D-line down, then a weak O-line is an acceptable trade off for getting the receivers who are dynamic runners after the catch.

If you want to play power football, then O-line has to be the top recruiting priority. This is a team building failure.

1988goldenbear: Best group of the day. Jet had a good day, but the run game disappeared in the second half.

What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?

Goldenone: Ok. But gave up too many long gainers in the 4th quarter

Kj1980: The pass defense got burned in the fourth quarter. Got worn fown, I guess. The Cal pass defense made a first year quarterback look like Johnny Zunitas at his prime.

fuzzywuzzy: Great until the 4th quarter; Bailey is the 2nd string QB, and a freshman. The defensive front was solid with all of those sacks, until they figured out the weak points of the secondary.

Ron: Probably worst performance of the year. What the hell was the problem today? We're supposed to be far, far better than we were today!

MoochPunt: Constant pressure on a young QB. Sacks and TFLs everywhere. I would rate this 100 except TWICE the coverage on the RB was blown in the 4th quarter.

Did the NC State offensive brain trust see something and exploit it? Or was this just a mistake on our coverage on a couple wild plays.

1988goldenbear: Once again, too many long 3rd down conversions to open receivers. We got some sacks but couldn’t get consistent pressure. #20 got torched over and over. Their qb made some really good throws and #15 was just too big for our DB’s.

59RoseBowl: How many 3rd and longs did they give up? Not up to their usual standards.

What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?

HaasBear: Very very sound.

Goldenone: Mostly solid

Kj1980: Presentable. Nothing memorable.

fuzzywuzzy: Good, for the most part, but really bad tackling when it mattered in the 4th...gotta wrap up the QB.

sacman701: Not the problem.

1988goldenbear: Seemed to be pretty solid all game. This wasn’t the problem.

59RoseBowl: Did a pretty good job.

What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?

Sadbear: Better kicking than before, except in critical times

Goldenone: Better but too little, too late

Kj1980: Another missed field goal cost Cal the game. What the heck? Another missed field goal cost Cal the game. Ditto. Again.

fuzzywuzzy: Putting the game on Morris, a freshman, had to be done, and in true Cal fashion, he missed the one we needed...thing is, I had a feeling it would come down to that,, and figured the result would be the same, no matter who was kicking. It really shouldn't come down to special teams every week - especially against the bottom end of the conference - but here we are...punting was excellent, tho. We even got two bounces to go our way. Impressive!

the townie: Different week. Different kicker. Same result.

Ron: Two missed final field goals, two losses in a row. Pathetic. What other FBS Team is so inept by losing close games, week after week!

MoochPunt: Great punting. Wonderful recovery of a muffed punt. And a field goal kicker who made 3 of 5 (helped by a false start). Normally that would be an improvement and not the total failure we watched today.

1988goldenbear: Good start for Morris but he also failed to deliver in the clutch. I wonder if they should’ve run a play to line him up on the right hash? It’s not the sole reason we lost, but it was certainly a gut punch to lose like that again.

59RoseBowl: The missed field goal from 28 to win? That kills the special teams performance.

BTown85: Freshman first time starter went 3 for 4. That’s better than the guy he replaced. It’s a tough spot to be in…… Hope he stays a 3 for 4 guy from here on out.

What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?

HaasBear: Big picture, this has to be the end of the Wilcox (and hopefully Knowlton) eras. We have a new Chancellor who understands the importance of a quality football team. Most the time coaches don’t get to figure it out in year 9….

Skullgata: Unimaginative play calling. Shaky offense. No kicking game. Been the same thing for 8 years now. Time to let Kistin Wilcox go.

Ron: Patience is wearing very thin regarding both Wilcox and all of the offense coaches.

sacman701: I don't understand why we kicked the XP after the last score instead of going for 2. With only a quarter left, two touchdowns are a far bigger potential threat than a touchdown and two field goals.

MoochPunt: On the 1st NC State touchdown one of our DBs was trying to call a time out because he saw that we were a mess. Where was the coaching staff with a timeout?

What, exactly was the game plan when playing in the 4th quarter with a 2 point lead?

Cal, at home, out played NC State and still lost.

The defense has looked elite this year. Until the 4th quarter when all of a sudden they start giving up explosive plays. How is the team so vulnerable?

I like Wilcox and his staff, but the failures are mounting. The team’s performance is not improving. 4 weeks in a row, I have watched the same game.

Life is pain: Unreal dose of Deja vu from last week right Justin? Great job!

1988goldenbear: I think we are stuck with this staff because of financial constraints , and if so this level of play may be our ceiling. We play to the level of our opponent so often it is maddening. Close losses to teams that are better than us and mind-boggling losses to teams that we should beat.

BTown85: You know, they put us in a position to win…..

What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?

Sadbear: As bad as I expected from this terrible coaching staff. Waste of all the talent and NIL funds

Goldenone: Our guys were let down by the coaching staff

Big Dog: SMH about all the sunshine pumpers who believed that we were moving to an 'easier' league

fuzzywuzzy: NC State was not a very good team, and yet they either pressured or sacked Mendoza enough to win....Mendoza either can't find open receivers, or they aren't getting open, and so putting forth anything other than a one-dimensional pass-heavy offense is impossible. Passing yardage between the red zones doesn't mean squat if you're losing. The secondary got beat too many times...they've got some talented guys, but can never put together a complete game, and just seem to fall apart late. Once again, the season is starting to smell bad, revealing a deeply systemic problem, and I have zero confidence a solution will be forthcoming before I'm ready for a dirtnap...

the townie: Another game they should have won. Another opportunity to change the narrative squandered. Have to convert third down. Can’t win if you don’t yet they almost won. Gotta get the other offense off the field on third down. Can’t do it often enough. Close isn’t enough. I appreciate not getting blown out. Really. Gotta close the deal though. Somebody needs to step up. Anybody know a shaman?

sacman701: The offensive line was bad again. The defense looked like itself for 3 quarters, then uncharacteristically collapsed. We can't blame fatigue this time: we ran 72 plays to Nc St's 67. This wasn't like the Miami game where we ran just 46 plays to their 86. This was by far the worst loss we've taken, and I hope the team doesn't quit on the season.

MoochPunt: No one can beat Cal except for Cal.

I will always be a Cal fan, games like today remind me what the life of a Cal fan is like. Go Bears

1988goldenbear: The kids deserve better coaching, especially the o-line. The four losses were all awful for different reasons, and in each game it felt like if one thing had gone right instead of wrong we could have won all of them. But they didn’t and now we are sitting at the bottom of the ACC and have toss-ups the rest of the season.

BTown85: A very Cal-istic loss…..much like the last three…..

Oldcalfan: Miserable. Very poor attendance. Coaches do not know how to win.

CALBEARZ1: Talent is there for big things. It’s a shame that the coaching hasn’t put the players in an optimal position to come away with wins. So many opportunities squandered.

With the exception of Big Game, I’m done attending games this year unless there is a change in coaching and/or significant improvement.

Thanks to all who participated! Hopefully we’ll see you next week.