Rating the Bears: Cal at Pitt
Thankfully we're now all experts in rating excruciatingly close losses, right?
In case you have not been closely tracking depressing statistics in recent Cal football history, Cal is 5-20 in one-score games since the start of the 2021 season. This means that we are all painfully experienced in rating such games. We have seen this script a thousand times (well, more like 20 times) where the Bears fall just short. On the road. At home. Against good opponents. Against winless opponents. With missed field goals. With turnovers. With blown final defensive drives. With head-scratching final offensive drives. And despite seeing so many of these types of games, our ratings do not seem to follow the same rubric. Look at the standard deviations below: we have several categories with standard deviations in the 20s and a couple nearing 30 (usually they’re around 15). Against Miami and Florida State we also saw huge spreads in our ratings. If I didn’t already have a weekly exercise where I take a bunch of data points and figure out how and why they group together, I’d be tempted to do something similar here to figure out what kind of rating criteria our readers seem to cluster around.
Once again we have a stellar pass defense and strong run defense and pass offense, all mostly undone by a run offense that is unable to manage the clock or pick up consistent positive yardage. Some weird special teams decisions (2 point conversion, playing for the field goal on that last long drive) dropped the coaching rating to an abysmal 27.9. Despite the loss, our predictions of a win against NC State are nearly unchanged since late August. NC State’s 0-3 start in conference play and their struggles in non-conference games have turned a potentially tough matchup into a scrap between two desperate teams.
Ratings Comparison
Compared to previous games under Wilcox, this one was all over the place. (Reminder: we’ve stopped our opponent-level comparisons because our ratings from previous Pitt games in the 60s were lost in the great tire fire of 2001).
Pass offense was slightly better than usual while pass defense was substantially better than usual—an impressive feat given the number of stellar pass defenses Wilcox has fielded over the years. Run defense was typical. Overall was a bit worse than usual while running, special teams, and coaching were all much worse than usual. Comparing the medians across categories, Coaching is the lowest. That is not a great sign for Wilcox’s longevity at the helm.
Awards
As always, we have three categories of awards to hand out for the lowest, highest, and most reasonable ratings of the week. Parentheses next to a name denote the number of previous awards for that reader.
Old Blues
First, the lowest scores of the week.
That’s three weeks in a row with a goose egg. Get it together, Wilcox.
Sunshine Pumpers
We’re returning to last year’s consistent pattern where Calamo and Bowlesman post a 1-2 finish where Bowlesman narrowly edges the third-place finisher.
The Voice of Reason
Finally, those whose scores were closest to the community average.
We have not had many repeat winners in this category this season. Although it’s hard to qualify for this award when we consistently have standard deviations in the 20s over the last several games.
And now, the comments. This week’s themes include 4th and 1 defense and weirdo offensive playcalling on potential game-winning drives.
Comments
Any comments on the gameday experience?
MBrew3: This was so frustrating to watch from home.
donothaveone: another shouda coulda
Northtunnelecho: At least the refs didn’t blow a critical call today. That’s an improvement.
Frisco Bear: Yet another "woulda, coulda, shoulda" game.
Dave Flemming on Cal games makes my ears bleed.
BlueDuck: The game was on at 4 am Tokyo time. Had to see the final score before rewatching the game.
1988goldenbear: So frustrating - I feel for the kids. They could use some team leaders to stand up and demand a higher level of discipline. This was such a winnable game.
What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?
AP8888: No blocking
GoldenBear88: Showed up when we needed it except on the last drive.
jrrad58: Sometimes effective, but too many screens
the townie: The O line is gonna get Mendoza killed. Endries is the man.
59ballboy: Mendoza deserves a Purple Heart
Old Bear 71: Three most important things about passing: Mendoza, Mendoza, Mendoza
sacman701: Mendoza often dinked and dunked effectively, but you can't just dink and dunk all the time and any longer-developing plays are limited by bad pass protection. If you count Mendoza's 'rushing' as pass attempts (IIRC he had no designed runs) we had 238 yards on 47 attempts which is barely 5 yards per attempt. That is rarely enough to win. On the positive side, Endries is turning into a serious player.
BrooklynBear: Our team has to get into a max protect scheme now for downfield passing (1RB + 1TE blocking). The film is out now and I worry that we'll struggle to score more than 17 per game. All defenses should rush 6 - fill all A-C gaps - play a soft quarters behind with a man spy. Then see if Cal can go 75 yards down the field without penalizing themselves, getting sacked, or missing field goals.
What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?
AP8888: No blocking
GoldenBear88: What run offense? After Thomas scored the touchdown in the first quarter, there was absolutely ZERO run offense! Unless our O-line drastically improves, it is going to be a very long season.
jakewebs: The staff has an abusive relationship with running up the middle. It always goes poorly but they just keep coming back to it hoping this time will be different. News flash: It won't!
Yobears: Struggled... more creative and diverse play calling would have allowed more success on the ground and would have opened the passing game even more so.
Frisco Bear: Same as passing offense. The offensive line is just that, offensive. We simply cannot run between the tackles. It's getting frustrating. The natural talent of Ott and JET is amazing. If they had blocking, it'd be a great 1-1a tandem. And Ott might not be hurt.
fuzzywuzzy: What run offense? Aside from the one TD run, they could't do much - 64 yards rushing requires a much better passing game, and it's tough to find the end zone without a better running game when you're in the red zone. Subbing in Rodgers has not worked. THere were a few holes that didn't get hit fast enough, and Ott might have made more, but they really need a better O-Line to generate any wins over good teams.
sacman701: Thomas ran fairly well, but that was about it. The line occasionally opened holes, but the blocking almost never got to the second level. All too often a back would hit a hole and then get nailed two yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Overall, the non-Mendoza runs produced 97 yards on 30 carries, which is not what we want.
BrooklynBear: Aside from the Jet's rushing TD, what rushing offense?
What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?
GoldenBear88: Stellar, as usual. Too bad the offense kept going three and out and putting the defense right back on the field.
jrrad58: Great; PBUs and INTs were impressive
Kj1980: Solid and two ints. Shut down Pitt in the second half.
the townie: Best unit. Bailed out the team. It looks like they’re going to need to start scoring if the team is going to win.
jakewebs: Cal may well have 2 first team All Americans in their secondary in Teddye and Nohl. Doesn't mean a thing, however, as this is the worst coached Cal team in a generation (yes, INCLUDING Dykes). Still, proud of these guys and wish them the best at the next level.
Frisco Bear: They did an excellent job. Great execution and well coached. Pitt was 1 for 12 on 3rd downs. 2 picks. They did their job and more.
sacman701: Outstanding apart from the early sequence where we committed a bunch of PI. Holstein came in having shredded almost every defense he faced, and we basically stoned him and forced him into a bunch of errors. The pass defense continues to be the strength of the team, at least when it isn't winded.
BrooklynBear: what a great group! Interesting that #20's been promoted above other NBs
What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?
HaasBear: One missed assignment and we lost the game.
GoldenBear88: Except for that fourth down, eighty something yard touchdown that they gave up in the first half, it was pretty good. Of course, that proved to be the game breaker.
the townie: Fine. One bad play. Otherwise did the job
Northtunnelecho: With the exception of giving up a long TD run it was bend don’t break.
Frisco Bear: Other than the 72 yard run by Reid on a 4th down, they did a great job holding him to 48 yards. Great adjustments by the defense in the 2nd have to shut them out and give us the chance to win.
MoochPunt: A loss of gap discipline in the first half led to the 70 yard TD. 2nd half the defense was stifling.
Old Bear 71: As usual, they did enough to win this thing.
BrooklynBear: tremendous with one missed 4th down assignment
1988goldenbear: Reid is super shifty, a lot like those smaller Oregon State backs that tortured us through the years. Good effort overall.
What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?
HaasBear: We have 3 losses by a total of 9 points and have gone 6 / 12 on field goals in that span. Almost like special teams costs us from being 6-0
Gobears157: We need to replace our kicker! He’s lost us two games already. How many more before we find a replacement?!
GoldenBear88: Our punter is an All-American. Our kicker needs to retire.
Kj1980: A missed field goal cost us the game. No, a botched two point conversion cost us the game. No, another two point conversion cost us the game. You can't win rock fights if you don't have rocks.
the townie: Have to make field goals. The offense isn’t good enough to come up with zero points when they actually manage a drive. Can’t drop punts.
59ballboy: Good except for Fg kicker. How can you have an NFL kicking coach but no recruit that can kick?
AKBear: Can we make a FG when it matters? The current kicker could do KOs but they need someone who can hit anything under 40 yards.
Yobears: There is absolutely no way that the hopes for a win should have relied on a field goal knowing what happened in recent games (hello Florida State, come on!)
sacman701: 1 for 2 on midrange field goals is a little disappointing. The other special teams elements weren't bad, except for the near-disaster on the muffed punt.
1988goldenbear: Coe has no confidence. I feel for the kid. Bottom line, the lack of a solid kicker has cost us games, and this is just another example.
What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?
HaasBear: Classic Wilcox. Unprepared and undisciplined penalties
GoldenBear88: Bloesch is BLEEEECCHHHH!!!!! Who the hell goes for a two point conversion in the first quarter instead of trying to tie the game? Two failed two point conversions and we lose the game by two! How much more "Typi-Cal" does it get than that?
donothaveone: By now this should be a better over all team
jrrad58: Terrible decision making starting with the 1st quarter 2-point conversion attempt; offensive play-calling was largely uninspired
the townie: The fascination with Rogers is unwarranted. The plays don’t work. Pulling Mendoza for some bullshit attempt at change of pace trickery reduces the chance of winning. It needs to stop. Mendoza is the starter. He’s the only chance at winning. Keep the ball in his hands. It’s reminiscent of late era Tedford when he couldn’t find a QB and got enamored with pistols and dual threats. I suppose it’s somewhat unfair criticism because I wouldn’t complain if it worked. But it hasn’t. And the team is 3-3 instead of much better and it feels like the coaches are in try anything mode because the running game is dead and the O line is struggling. Going for two early forced going for two late leaving an all or nothing kick from a kicker having a rough year. Can we get him some Vans? Or at least draw a checkerboard on his shoes?
jakewebs: Let's see:
1. Relying on your punter to throw a 2 point conversion for no reason that put you in a hole for the rest of the game.
2. Running up the middle every other play even though it never worked.
3. Throwing Rodgers in every time Mendoza was getting hot to try a useless run up the middle.
4. A second 2 point conversion play too cute by half (who cares about your TE that has been gashing them?)
5. Practically settling for a field goal from 40 yards when your kicker is 53% on the season.
6. Loads and loads (and LOADS) of penalties - AS ALWAYS!
7. Once again, not getting the guys to take a quick snap after a sketchy 3rd down conversion leading to the drive being thwarted.
... Frankly, I could list a dozen other things here but the point is well made. There are no more excuses. Justin Wilcox has been given more leeway by Cal than 95% (if not more) Power 4 programs would give, and it's the same old story. More concerningly, the team seems to be regressing from a discipline perspective which could lead to the season being derailed. No Golden Bear should be willing to accept such a coaching performance, and we can only petition Lyons to raise the funds to fire Wilcox. It is rare that such a move has been so richly deserved!
59ballboy: I’ve been a Wilcox supporter. Probably no more.
AKBear: Enough has been said. Something seems off though.
Ron: Absolutely horrible, inexplicable coaching/play calling decisions. I blame the coaches more than anyone/anything else for this loss.
BlueDuck: At this point, I just don't know anymore.
Goldenone: A nightmare that keeps recurring
fuzzywuzzy: They got out-schemed - the 4th and one TD, the blitz packages that the offense had no answer for...the penalties and poor pass protection are all on the coaches.
sacman701: First, the good: the team didn't panic when it went down two scores early, and the defensive adjustments basically locked Pitt down in the second half. The bad: the decision to forego a 3rd and 8 to set up a mid-range field goal for an unreliable kicker was very questionable and I think it was a mistake. The decision to try a fake after the first TD was also questionable. That said, if Coe had barely made the late FG instead of barely missing and if Pitt had been fooled by the fake, they would have looked like genius moves instead of idiot moves. You can't judge decisions with perfect hindsight. I don't know that the offensive playcalling is especially bad given what we have to work with: we can't just call quick passes on every down. The decision to saddle Bloesch with both OC and OL duties has clearly not worked out to this point, but that's an offseason issue, not a game-week issue.
1988goldenbear: I believe Coach Wilcox still has the team behind him, and that is super important. This team has been one play, one drive, one penalty, one kick away from wins that could transform the program... and we have fallen short each time. But they keep fighting.
What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?
HaasBear: Despite the 3-0 start, this is the same Wilcox lead team of years past.
MBrew3: I just don’t understand so many of the decisions, going for two, settling for a field goal at the end, using Rodgers in critical situations. It doesn’t make sense. It resulted in a loss.
Kj1980: This team is painful to watch. We could be 6-0. We are 3-3 and need done wins and connected losses. Otherwise, we are at best a Cheez Itz bowl bound or worse.
Bob Bauer: It is sad to see the game taken away from the players by bonehead decisions by the coaching staff. The players deserve better.
jakewebs: Mendoza was bloodied, the defense was leaned on as hard as ever, and Coe was left with tears in his eyes. Ladies and gentlemen, remember this day whenever someone asks you what a loss because of coaching looks like. This program is in a struggle to prove it still DESERVES TO EXIST, and while the fans are willing to fulfill their end of the bargain, the Cal Athletic Department and Coach are not. Despite the disappointment of Wilcox inevitably being given more time to turn around a ship that is not turning, I strongly encourage all readers to pack Memorial Stadium week after week. After all, we've only got a few more years to enjoy this storied program thanks to JK and Wilcox.
Yobears: Disappointing at best, bummer however I'm still a fan!
Frisco Bear: Despite what people will say, I think this one is on the players more than on Wilcox and the staff. The players are officially paid now, so they have to wear the responsibility.
From the "we just can't have nice things department": if we had an offensive line, we'd be 6-0.
Ron: Great/good teams find a way to win the close ones. Cal, on the other hand almost always finds a way (mostly different each time) to lose the close ones. The loyal Cal fans deserve better than this!
RememberTheCalamo: My only expectation is that the Bears show up and play a game. Expecting anything more out of this team is an exercise in anguish.
Old Bear 71: Could have been a winning effort in spite of ridiculous play calling.
sacman701: Again, we learn nothing new about this team. The defense is pretty good, especially against the pass. The offense has some weapons, but the line play isn't remotely good enough to either run or throw with any consistency. The kicking game is shaky. As frustrating as the last two weeks have been, the performances were almost good enough to beat a top-10 team at home and a top-25 team on the road, and likely good enough to beat 5 of the 6 teams left on our schedule. We'll probably go at least 7-5 even if the offensive line continues to leak like a sieve.
Thanks to all who participated in the aftermath of another excruciating loss. May this Saturday be a pleasant reprieve from the endless hand-wringing.
"Experts in rating excruciatingly close losses." - Does Cal offer a degree, or at least a certificate in that? If they don't, it would be an easy add to the catalog, with a thru the roof issuance rate.
*sigh