Rating the Bears: Cal Football at Leland Stanford Junior University
The highest set of ratings since the last win in Palo Alto
I found this to be a hard game to evaluate. Despite having a vast statistical advantage over the Lobsterbacks in yardage, efficiency, first downs, and time of possession, Cal spent most of the game clinging to a single-digit lead. And after watching such leads quickly evaporate against USC and Wazzu (well, almost), I could not shake the feeling that DOOM may be lurking just around the corner. Thankfully the Bears prevailed and I gave them solid but not spectacular ratings for the performance. Clearly I was not representative of the larger W4C community because—wow!—look at those ratings!
80s across the board! This was the highest-rated game since the last trip to Palo Alto, which remains the highest-rated game in our fourteen seasons of running this series. Every single unit was graded well, and even our expectations of a win over UCLA have grown since preseason, despite UCLA’s beatdown of USC last weekend. Prayers to Oski for a UCLA hangover this Saturday.
Ratings Comparison
Cal has lost far too many games to the Lobsterbacks since we have started this series, so this week’s ratings compare quite well to the rest of the data.
The only explanation I need to give about how to interpret these boxplots is this: points above the box are above the 75th percentile and thus excellenct scores. Just about every rating finishes at that level in comparison both to prior Big Games and to the rest of Wilcox’s tenure.
Again, solid scores across the board! I would be delighted with another set of ratings like this next weekend.
Awards
Now time to hand out awards. An honorable mention goes to all of you who turned Stanford Stadium into Bear Territory all evening. That sounded like a home game for the Bears and it was an absolute delight watching Cal fans rush the field (including a few Write for California writers and commenters who briefly appeared on the broadcast as they sauntered towards the joyous crowd!). Beating the Lobsterbacks is always a delight, but it’s even more special to earn a third consecutive Big Game road win, a streak that has now only happened three times in series history (fun fact: last time was when the Bears had a six-game winning streak in Palo Alto spanning 1936-1951).
Anyway, back to our usual slate of awards.
Sunshine Pumpers
Our highest scores of the week:
Three-way tie for first! BearsWillEndMyLife, a 5-time Old Blue this season, made a surprise appearance in with the fifth-highest ratings this week.
Old Blues
Next, the lowest scores of the week.
You know things have gone well when we have ratings in the 60s and 70s qualifying for Old Blues. In another surprise appearance, sacman701 took a break from earning yet another Voice of Reason award (he’s our leader this season with 6 such awards) to find a place among the Old Blues.
The Voice of Reason
Finally, the ratings closest to the community average.
KJ 1980 earns the lowest score we have seen all season—well done! After ten consecutive Sunshine Pumper awards, Bowlesman80 joined the Voice of Reason recipients this week. All three categories this week featured the leading award recipient (or co-leader, as Bowlesman shared the Sunshine Pumpers title with Calamo) for one of the other categories—that’s a rather interesting result.
Onward to the comments of the week.
Comments
Any comments on the gameday experience?
wiata78: as usual, switched to radio early in the first quarter. Getting to like those guys
Willis Chong: Nice to see the Cal fans take over Stanfurd Stadium. Our sections were rocking
Bowlesman80: My son and I drove to Furd. He has sensory issues so I decided to play it by ear and buy nothing in advance. Honestly, this whole ACC bailout thing has put me in a state of continual anxiety about how I should feel about Furd, so, early, when we arrived, my son, being well trained and of good character saw people in Furd gear and yelled through the open window, "Stanford sucks." I, feeling the whole feel-good, ACC togetherness, shushed him and told him we need to show respect. As we were leaving, a young woman and man were eating while sitting on a curb. Out of respect, I turned my eyes away and, as I did so, she said, "F...k Cal!"
Suddenly, my anxiety was gone. Thanks Furdie.
sacman701: I don't get the Pac-12 network, so I spent much of the game assembling furniture.
heyalumnigo: Great tailgate with burgers, dogs, and sausages, with an invite to a spread with pancit, lechon, Sisig, lumpia. Great friends, great game. A stadium that seemed to be at least half Cal fans. Sat in front of the Pac-12 broadcast and chanted Shane Ver-een many times.
jakewebs: The Stanford tailgating scene is always great. Stumbled upon a group of Cal fans cutting a tree they had brought and teaching the kids the "give em the axe" chant! Cal fans came out strong to the game and storming the field was AWESOME!
Old Bear 71: Soooo satisfying. For the Bears to lead wire to wire was sweet. From Last week in the stadium watching the game ending interception to this week’s repeat win I felt like maybe our chances against UC-la are improved immensely. Some anxiety in the second half, but the Bears kept getting the points. It was nice.
bearspot: Threat of rain did not dampen the tailgate in Lot #4. The word of the day for students: JUGS. Thankfully, at the game, the rain never amounted to more than a persistent but gentle mist, like standing next to a waterfall of Stanfurd tears. The rainbow at the start of the game was a good omen. We stormed the field! Revel revel revel! Nelson Road is Bear Territory!
1988goldenbear: Definitely Bear Territory! Furdies seemed to have more apathy than normal this year, probably because they are a really bad team, but wow that was a great turnout by our fans!
BearsWillEndMyLife: Took my daughter and her friend to the game since we couldn't leave the pooch alone and bring the whole fam. Very happy the rain mostly stayed away, and our seats were only half exposed. Hilarious to see the fair-weather furd fans drowned out by our Cal noise. Keeping the Axe always feels good. Their band remains atrocious.
What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?
Willis Chong: Made enough passes, but still making the redshirt freshman mistakes. Nando's cannon still got enough done
TKE Prytanis 79: Mendoza is growing into the role… a tough kid
BTown85: I’m starting the Heisman for Trond campaign
KJ 1980: Mendoza had a great game after starting off a bit shaky. The interception was not good but he came back. Best qb numbers of the season.
Goldenone: The Mendoza to Trond connection is going to be big in upcoming years
sacman701: One ugly pick, and a lot of slice and dice. Grizzell has emerged as a #1 receiver.
sacalum: Fernando isn't flashy and doesn't rate with the best Pac-12 quarterbacks (Penix, Nix, etc), but he is solid, and the RS freshman is getting better by the game; remember, he was a 2-star recruit out of high school and was buried on the depth chart earlier this season. How is Grizzell a non-scholarship player? He needs a scholly & some NIL $$.
The Ghost of Joe Roth: Fernando is a Big Game hero! The int was ugly but otherwise he played well all game.
bearspot: Most TD passes of Fernando's career! Wish the O-line could protect him better though.
fuzzywuzzy: Yeoman's work that got the job done - a few issues and the pick, but Mendo took a licking and came back out tickin', and if Trond doesn't pan out in the NFL, he might just make it in a 70's-type action hero show, without changing his name.
1988goldenbear: Mendoza was good enough. That was a crushing hit that knocked him out for a series. He should probably have had 3 int's if the Furd defense could catch the ball any better than the Furd offense.
BearsWillEndMyLife: What a time for Mendoza to have his best game of the season. Grizzell and Endries have stepped up tremendously while Hunter has been getting all the attention of the defense. It also looked like Mendoza had time for most of the day. It was clear from the beginning furd's plan was going to be to devote everything to stopping Ott and daring Mendoza to beat them. He accepted that challenge admirably. What could have been if he had been the starter all year.
What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?
Willis Chong: Ott was great, but Furd kept anticipating the gap when we ran up the gut. UCLA will better on D
HelloBowlesHall: Ott was awesome, but on obvious rushing downs the Lobsterbacks seemed to have little trouble penetrating the backfield immediately.
BTown85: By my count no one but Ott even stepped in the backfield until late in the 4th. How Vereen of him!!!
KJ 1980: Ott is the MAN! As John Madden said, Big time players make Big time plays on big games. Ott did that. His runs killing the block at thfvgnd of the game were fun.
sacman701: Furd's run defense isn't terrible, and Ott ground them down especially on the last series.
sacalum: Without a doubt, Jaydn is the #1 RB in the Pac-12. He's like DoorDash -- always delivers.
The Ghost of Joe Roth: Jaydn Ott is a grown man
Old Bear 71: OTT to run Ott more. Also Ott to have Ott do some extra quick moves to the hole to flash by the guys spying him. Ott will be All American this season. The run game got the game balanced for the Fernando.
Tangtpt: I'll repeat myself...Jaden Ott is a BEAST! The offensive line gets a ton of credit, too, but Ott is really special.
1988goldenbear: Ott all game long, love it! Now can we make some holes in the ucla defense?
BearsWillEndMyLife: Early on it looked very frustrating, as our blocking was terrible. Spavital's play calling was predictable and boring. He unnecessarily put Mendoza in harm's way in the third quarter on the designed QB run. But, Ott is an all-consuming beast, and we wore them down in the second half. 47 for 161 makes for a middling YPC, but once we got the blocking figured out, we were in full control.
What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?
Willis Chong: Probably more due to the lack of pressure. Unfortunately led to quick bombs/TDs. Dunno how we deal with little Garbers next week
HelloBowlesHall: Bend but don’t break ftw. Literally. Better pass rush than usual, might be an indication of the poor Lobsterback o line but I’ll take it.
sacman701: Furd got a few big plays and a lot of nothing. Of their two biggest, one was very fluky and the other was an inch-perfect deep throw against decent coverage.
heyalumnigo: Most likely the best it looked against a Pac-12 opponent. Probably says more about the opponent than the D. I thought for sure Ayomanor was going to abuse the D and run slant after slant after slant. Played very good coverage on him and he didn't get a lot of space. A few of the throws to him were forced into good coverage. No real breakdowns on pass D other than the TD throw which was a great throw.
sacalum: It was nice to see Lu-Magia Hearns make some great plays. And Reese is just what the doctor ordered for our usually tame pass rush.
bearspot: Cal got good and consistent pressure versus what appeared to be a pretty decent Stanfurd O-line. When Cal got to the quarterback it was usually late after not finding their well-covered receivers.
fuzzywuzzy: Other than the one big play, they pretty much shut down the Cardinal, along with this weird thing call tackling the quarterback. Fascinating.
1988goldenbear: We got some pressure, not a lot, and benefited from a large number of dropped balls. But aside from that one 3-play touchdown drive, Furd didn't do much through the air.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Outside of a couple freak deep completions, there was nothing furd could offer in the pass game. Daniels looks like he might be able to develop into a decent dual-threat QB with some accuracy work. Finally enjoyable not facing a Heisman-level wizard back there. The second half sacks really helped shut them down.
What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?
Willis Chong: More related to Stanford being not great, but we also lost contain on those broken plays. Furd QB kept getting chunk yards which was frustrating
cleancutmedia: We beat the turds. That's all that matters.
HelloBowlesHall: Not sure a spy on their qb would have killed us but whatever we dominated them so what do i know.
sacman701: Some trouble with QB draws, otherwise no real issues.
heyalumnigo: Definitely the best it looked against a Pac-12 opponent. Once again, probably says more about the opponent than the D, especially when Ashton Daniels is the 2nd leading rusher. I thought for sure we'd see more FCS type or trick pays from TT.
bearspot: Ugh. Stanfurd's QB gashing us and shedding off dudes who were not tackling well. Run defense used to be our strong suit, right? Now it feels like our weakness.
Tangtpt: Wonderful! It seemed like we turned 'furd into a one-dimensional team, and that's exactly what you want to do to a young team.
1988goldenbear: Seemed to be stout enough. I don't know if we had a spy on their QB enough, because that was an issue on a couple of 3rd downs.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Their YPC was way better than ours, Daniels had several nice runs, and our tackling was generally pitiful. But, when you can reduce your opponent to lots of empty yards between the 20s, you have a big margin for error.
What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?
Willis Chong: Punt returns still an issue but nice to have confidence in our XPs. I dunno when Wilcox will try to have us kick another FG though
cleancutmedia: We beat the turds. That's means everyone is special this week.
HelloBowlesHall: Honestly remember nothing about special teams, which is simultaneously good and shows how amazingly conservative and boring we play special teams
heyalumnigo: Nope. Which is the best. All kickoffs were fair caught by Stanfurd short of the goalline. Only one not so great punt.
Texashaterforlife: If Cal had lost, this would be a paragraph.
Old Bear 71: Kan’t stop Karty. But they stopped everything else. Rule on fair catch is too bad. Next muffed fair catch will be nabbed by the Bears!
fuzzywuzzy: Good job kicking and punting even with a wet ball and at least one hairy snap...
1988goldenbear: No complaints with the play. Unfortunate rule on that muffed punt that ultimately turned out to be a non-factor in the game.
BearsWillEndMyLife: That fair catch interference call was ticky tacky at best. Players should catch the damn ball. Hunter likes to drift to the ball and catch it while still moving, even on fair catches. I don't like this, and he's more likely to fumble that way. I hope the coaches are teaching him to field punts like an outfielder in baseball - get to the spot, set your feet, settle your eyes, and focus on the ball. Overall, we didn't make any big mistakes, and it's a win if your opponent is depending on 50+- yard bombs from their placekicler.
What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?
Willis Chong: Seemed somewhat better prepared, but still looked lost on a few series. Play calling was at times uninspired as we didn't seem to get anything up the middle with our running game for 3 quarters
cleancutmedia: We beat the turds. That's all that matters especially if it's a 5-6 season.
Rose Bowl Oski: Solid. I agreed with the decision do go for it on 4th down every time
KJ 1980: Cal had a game plan and followed it. And cal win the Big Game!
Goldenone: Seemed to make decent in game adjustments and it appears the game plan was sound
sacman701: The game plan on both sides was enough to basically control the game.
sacalum: The team seemed really prepared, although it was against a 'Furd team that isn't having a good year.
jakewebs: I was surprised there weren't any flashy plays the team saved for the Big Game, but the team came out prepared and executed well on both sides of the ball which makes that a moot point. Whatever else you think, the program under Wilcox has always been prepared for the Big Game which cannot be taken for granted.
bearspot: The defense had a good plan against a tricksy Stanfurd squad. Loved all the successful 4th down calls. Holding the ball for the last 6:27 with a 12 point lead is the right way to put your foot on a nasty tricksy opponent's throat. The kneel down. No cardiac Cal anywhere in site.
Tangtpt: There was a point late in the third quarter when I kept yelling "Run the ball down their throats!!!" On second thought, given our RB health, that may not have been the best strategy.
fuzzywuzzy: All units did what they needed to do; offense could have been a little better, but won the game handily with some nice plays and tough running; the defense looked as good as any this season - much better coverage on some apparently talented receivers. Granted, Stanfurd is...bad; they can't even get the son of Emmit Smith going, but they have had their moments this year. Thought the team played well.
1988goldenbear: I think they had the team prepped for this one. But really, the coaches didn't need to do anything special to win this year.
What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?
Willis Chong: Nice win. Let's prep for UCLA and finish the season strong
cleancutmedia: We beat the turds. That's all that matters. Though I am thankful that we are still in the same conference next year. They are turds, but they are our turds. To turd on.
HelloBowlesHall: We had so many opportunities to put this game away but we just couldn’t do it until late. Defense carried the day and kept mistakes from becoming problems. Offense could have iced this game way earlier but in the end came through.
sacman701: Furd is probably the league's weakest team, but this was still our best all-around effort of the season. We did well in every phase of the game although we weren't lights-out in any of them. The team finally seems to be improving, although the outcome of the bowl quest is mostly going to depend on whether UCLA comes out focused or flat.
RenoBear88: Very satisfying to win it with the victory formation, no chucking a hail mary to the end zone like last week.
sacalum: Any Big Game victory is special -- no matter the stakes.
jakewebs: Not a resounding statement like 2021 or a somewhat messy win like 2022, but a day in which Cal was clearly the better team and seemed to be clearly favored throughout the game. The postgame celebration on the field was well-earned, and was yet another moment in which the incredible character of these young men was on display. WE KEPT THE AXE!
Old Bear 71: A win over the trees in any sport is sweet, but keeping the Axe is like hot fudge sundae preceded by luscious prime rib (served once upon a time at Victoria Station) with sautéed mushrooms and loaded baked potato.
Tangtpt: We've got the Axe for one more year! I love it and our boys did a fantastic job! One more win to make it to a bowl game! Fingers crossed for a big win in LA.
1988goldenbear: Love winning on the road, GO BEARS! Need to find some magic next Saturday too.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Beating furd always warms my heart. I'm much more concerned about beating an evenly matched or slightly better team, like UCLA or hopefully our bowl opponent. These kids deserve the trip and the swag. We have won in Pasadena twice this century, and I hope UCLA overlooks us after crushing u$c.
CoBears: When we were getting annihilated by Oregon, a bowl game seemed like too much to ask of this team. Another win seemed hopeless at times. But beating WSU and crushing the farm-boys gives me hope not only for the game against ucla this week, but also for the future of this team. I feel like we are poised to turn a corner as we enter the ACC. And for next year's Big Game, "Give 'em the ACCs!"
Thanks to all who participated! Check back for the UCLA ratings form on Saturday night after the game (or Sunday morning if you’re an East Coaster like me who will watch the second half in the morning).
Perfect scores for a Big Game win!!
Wonderful! Thanks