Rating the Bears: Cal vs. UNLV Rebels Football

Another too-close game against a G5 opponent

Cal Football @CalFootball

Got the job done. ✊ #GoBears

Cal jumps out to a multi-TD lead over a G5 team and then slowly squanders that lead, culminating in a tense, frustrating 4th quarter. Sound familiar? We’ve seen this happen several times before: at BYU in 2018, vs. North Texas in 2019, and vs. Nevada in 2021. Before we watch the same thing happen next season in Denton against the University of North Texas, let’s review the Bears’ victory over UNLV.

Rating the Bears

As usual, we’ve illustrated the average rating for each category and the standard deviation, a measure of how varied the responses were.

After last week’s atypical ratings in which the offense outperformed the defense, this week we’re back to some usual Wilcoxian scores: middling offense, decent defense, and questionable special teams. Despite having two-time Pac-12 Freshman of the Week, the rush offense scored second lowest behind coaching, which undoubtedly was penalized for not playing Ott more (where was he in the 4th quarter?).

Special teams and coaching had unusually high standard deviations, indicating that ratings were all over the place for those categories. Each had some solid aspects: Sheahan’s punting is now 6th in the nation, but several critical mistakes (running into the kicker penalty, missed field goal, kickoff caught and run out of bounds inside the 10, allowing a successful onside kick) hurt special teams while the disparities in offensive and defensive performances in the second half helped divide opinions on coaching.

Optimism of a win over Notre Dame has grown considerably after their awful 0-2 start. Although a huge standard deviation for that category may be due to concerns about the Cal offense despite Notre Dame’s recent struggles.

Ratings Comparison

Although this was yet another frustrating game against a G5 opponent, this week’s ratings (gold in the plot below) compare favorably against many recent G5 performances.

As a reminder the horizontal blue lines represent the median (exact middle) of the data and the box represents the middle 50% of the data. Although run offense was a fair bit worse than many recent G5 games, most other categories were better than usual. Although that is largely due to some woeful G5 games in recent years: 2021 loss to Nevada, 2016 loss at San Diego State (who play the Bears in another home-and-away series in 2024 and 2025—oh joy), 2014 loss to BYU, 2012 loss to Nevada, and the 2011 loss to Nevada. I hope we never play Nevada again.

Here are the ratings compared to all the games played since Wilcox became head coach.

Pass offense and pass defense were better than usual. Otherwise, everything ranged from slightly worse than normal to much worse than normal. That’s not an encouraging result against a team that was 2-10 last season.

Awards

We have our usual slate of awards: the best ratings, the worst ratings, and the most reasonable ones.

Sunshine Pumpers

First up, highest scores of the week.

What light through yonder window breaks? It is the East, and Calamo is the Sunshine Pumper.

Old Blues

Next, the lowest ratings of the week.

Total scores in the 30s and 40s are rare in a win. That likely reflects our low assessment of the UNLV team.

The Voice of Reason

Finally, those whose scores were closest to the community average.

These are pretty high this week. Usually they’re in the 4s and 5s. This reflects how much variation there was this week—it’s hard to be close to the middle when scores are all over the place.

Enough numbers, let’s see how you felt about the game in words. Thanks again to Rob for corralling this week’s comments.

Comments

Any comments on the gameday experience?

• KJ1980 - Cal fans were rooting for the home team. In the beginning, hopes were high. But too many bonehead mistakes allowed the “Runnin’ Rebels” stay in the game.

• GlueAndBold - Went to an escape room afterwards, where at one point we ran a sink to float a cork with a clue up out of the drain. It was a lot more fun than watching poor blocking and coaching nearly sink us.

• RememberTheCalamo - TBH $30 a month is too much for Sling just to get the Pac12 networks (even if it gives me the Cal football). I'm going to rate them 100 anyways so why waste the money?

• Oski Disciple - The on field emcee continues to annoy and the trout "entertainment" is just sad. The student section didn't show up like they should have. The crowd supported the defensively enthusiastically, especially late in the fourth quarter.

• Oaklandishbear - I sure hope there are more butts in seats when Conference play starts. Crowd made decent noise when it mattered, though. The Athletic Department needs to do more to support the Band. It is a shell of its former self. And inexcusable that we can't field a Cheer/Dance Team because we apparently don't have coaches? Come on , Knowlton, do more.

What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?

• Wiata78 - Possibly the passer and receivers are fine; but OL protection was bad. Hard to see on radio.

• Jakewebs - Plummer looked solid to start but fell off the map in the second half. He has a tendency to slightly overthrow receivers it seems.

• Old Bear 71 - How do we get worse as a game progresses? I mean, 8/8 in first quarter then meh after that?

• Azulviejo - No open receivers. Plummer's ball just seem out of reach.

• OskiOfTarth - Plummer looks to be a small step up from Garbers passing, a step back running.

What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?

• Tangtpt - I completely understand the need to spread out carries among multiple players in order to maintain health. BUT, when you're struggling on offense in the 2nd half against UNLV, I question that philosophy and maybe you hit the gas in order to put away a win. Give the rock to your best players (Ott especially) and put the game away.

• 1988goldenbear  - Not much to cheer about there. Maybe it would help to get Ott more touches, unless he was dinged up and they were trying to preserve him. But again, the O-line needs to do better.

• California Love - I hope the lack of production was a result of holding back some of our best plays until Notre Dame. Not sure how we win next week if Ott gets 7 carries.

• RememberTheCalamo - Does anyone remember 2012 when Tedford kept putting Isi Sofele in instead of CJ Anderson? One of them scored a TD in the Superbowl and it isn't the guy Tedford picked. Maybe Wilcox is trying to give low risk touches to guys deeper on the roster. I don't know, but one guy's stats are better than everyone else's, and he didn't get the most touches.

• Texashaterforlife - O-Line did not show improvement. Thank God for Jaydn Ott.

What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?

• Wadlom - Secondary is good. But defensive line without blitzing from linebackers and safeties is weak

• Haasbear - Our inability to generate pressure will cost us losses against reasonably good teams.

• KJ1980 - We made the UNLV QB look like Fran Tarkington on a great day. And he almost pulled it out.

• Oski Disciple - Clutch. They bent but didn't break. Blitzing on the last two drives was overdue and most welcome, probably saved us the game.

• 1988goldenbear - Not much has changed - good corner play for the most part, but we still give up chunks on 3rd down, especially over the middle. Hearns was beat a few times but managed to catch up and either knock the ball out or tip it. Bummed that we didn't get that one pick on the sideline that they gave to the UNLV receiver.

What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?

• Old Bear 71 - Very bendable.

• Texashaterforlife - I'm sensing a weakness. 4th quarters, in close games, are going to make me worry.

• Oski Disciple - Adequate considering the opponent.

• 1988goldenbear - Good for a while, then (maybe as we got tired) they started gashing us for 5+ yards. Tackling was sloppy.

• Heyalumnigo - The run D was getting gashed but from what I remember tightened up with the game on the line. Sirmon looked great chasing down the QB in the last drive (or was the the 2nd to the last drive).

What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?

• Wiata78 - Missing a FG and allowing an onside recovery are bad. Punts seemed OK.

• Haasbear - Poor. Very poor. Missed field goal, roughing the punter, catching a kick off outside, letting beautiful punts roll into the endzone, etc…

• Old Bear 71 - Did not cost us the game, but a 30ish yd field goal attempt should be a gimme, no?

• GlueAndBold - Undisciplined play. A false start cost us two timeouts and a potential score, and iffy punt coverage allowed some touchbacks that could have been pins.

• Oski Disciple - A step down from last week with a missed FG and a penalty on a UNLV punt that gave them possession back. Kick off game is awesome and the punting good.

What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?

• Haasbear - Atrocious. Defense has declined tremendously since the loss of TDR, our offensive line is a disaster, and we refuse to use the most talented back we’ve had since Vereen.

• KJ1980 - I respect the coaches. But Cal did not seem prepared mentally for the UC Davis and UNLV games. Playing Cal was huge to both teams. Our guys approached it like playing touch football in People’s Park after a funny brownie or two. I understand that Cal is 2-0 but we may be the worst 2-0 team in the country. Cal easily could have put the game away in the second quarter. It should have. And it’s offense only getting 20 points?!

• Texashaterforlife - Vanilla Ice Cream is only good when you can add toppings to make a sunday. Vanilla play calling is only good when dominance is guaranteed; so that the young backups get time to play and develop for the future.

• GlueAndBold - As usual, playing too conservative when we have a lead. There's a difference between keeping the playbook hidden and nearly gambling away a win.

• ABVidale - Last week, the coaches made adjustments after the first quarter. This week, the less said the better.

• Tangtpt - I completely understand the need to spread out carries among multiple players in order to maintain health. BUT, when you're struggling on offense in the 2nd half against UNLV, I question that philosophy and maybe you hit the gas in order to put away a win. Give the rock to your best players (Ott especially) and put the game away.

• BearsThatFly - Strong start on offense but failed to take advantage of Cal's skill players in 2H.

What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?

• Jakewebs - The first quarter gave plenty of reason to be optimistic this year; the next three gave plenty to worry it would be another cursed 5-7 season. Ott is a star in the making and is the most exciting player to watch on this team. Notre Dame may be struggling but this sort of performance won't be enough in South Bend. Let's hope the exciting goal line stand at the end of the game gives the boys some momentum to shock the world (and perhaps a future B1G rival xD) next week.

• RememberTheCalamo - We're already one more win over where we were my senior year. It can only go up from here.

• OskiOfTarth - Cal got a C+ in their first week quiz for improving as the game went along, and a C- this game for getting worse/not countering their halftime adjustments. Now comes the test.

• 1988goldenbear - Same old same old - we play down to the level of our opponent. Hopefully we can play up to that level as well. Go Bears! I'm looking forward to rushing the field at ND!

• ABVidale - If we mix the first quarter of the UNLV game with the 2nd-4th quarters of the UC Davis game, we have a great Cal team. It's theoretically possible that will happen in the future, but I have my doubts.

• Oaklandishbear - Well, at least this was a one-possession game that we won. But it should have NEVER been a one possession game. After the 1st quarter, we should have buried the Rebels and didn't.

Thanks to all who participated. Check back Saturday after the ND game for our next Rating the Bears form.