Rating the Bears: Cal at Utah Football

Plenty of middle-of-the-road ratings after another loss in Salt Lake City

Oct 19, 2023

The last several trips to Salt Lake City have not been pleasant on the football field. In 2012 Cal was blown out by a 2-5 Utah team and, to add injury to insult, lost Keenan Allen to a season-ending injury on a meaningless onside kick in garbage time. I’m still salty about that one. 2015 featured a close matchup between two undefeated teams, although the Bears fell just short of the upset due to a stunning five interceptions from Goff. In 2019…actually, I don’t think they played 2019. They must have cancelled that game. Alas, this weekend’s game was an excellent chance to steal a win in Salt Lake City against a vulnerable Utah team. Things looked promising during the first half…and then the flood gates opened. As a result, ratings were rather mixed this week.

Rating the Bears

Despite the loss, the ratings weren’t that bad (except run defense). All categories except run defense fall into a pretty small range, with only about a 14-point difference between the best and worst categories. When most categories are consistently mediocre, however, that is not a recipe for success against a team like Utah.

The predictions of a win over USC have dipped slightly since preseason. It was around a 1-in-3 chance in our initial estimates but now it’s closer to 1-in-4.

Ratings Comparison

Cal has a 2-4 record against the Utes since we started this series, and yet most of the grades were still worse than usual.

Comparing Saturday’s ratings (gold) to boxplots capturing all previous recent matchups against Utah. The box captures the interquartile range between the 25th and 75th percentiles, while the horizontal line represents the median.

Nando salvaged the pass offense and the pass defense was exactly in the middle. Otherwise, everything was slightly worse than usual.

The Wilcox Era has generally fared better than recent games against Utah. So by comparison, these ratings were notably worse than usual.

Comparing Saturday’s ratings (gold) to all other games during the Wilcox Era.

Other than passing, everything is worse than usual. Several categories—run offense, special teams, and especially run defense—are around or below the 25th percentile. I must admit, it’s a little draining discussing these worse-than-usual scores every week…

Awards

We have three sets of awards, like always.

Old Blues

First, the lowest ratings of the week. Parentheses indicate the number of previous awards in that category.

Our most consistent Old Blue SadBear once again tops the category. Clearly that is an accurate username.

Sunshine Pumpers

Next, the highest ratings of the week.

After a one-week hiatus, Bowlesman80 rejoins the Sunshine Pumpers to complete another 1-2 finish with Calamo.

The Voice of Reason

Finally, those whose ratings were closest to the community average.

Several repeat recipients on the podium this week.

Next up, top comments of the week.

Comments

Any comments on the gameday experience?

sacman701: My son had a soccer game during the game. The ref didn't show up, so I volunteered to ref the second half. My first game since 1986 as a youth soccer referee went well enough, I guess.
HaasBear: I made some soft pretzels and cheese which pair nicely with disappointment.
Calboy1976: The only silver lining to being in the ACC is there appears to be some worse programs.
TKE Prytanis 79: Watched with my son at home after we took a long mountain bike ride...was good to sit back!
heyalumnigo: Watched at the WFC watch party. Had lots of good cheering with both Mendoza TDs.
wiata78: Will we actually miss Pac12 coverage some day?
Turned off the volume and turned on the radio for a while. It was better, but nothing could save this game.
Tangtpt: The people of Salt Lake City rivaled the people of South Bend in terms of friendliness and hospitality. The Utes had a sneaky impressive tailgating scene near the stadium. The weather was beautiful, the solar eclipse was cool, and it was an overall great trip. The negatives: (1) we lost...badly; (2) even though Rice-Eccles holds over 10,000 fewer people than Memorial, I felt like we were really far away from the field (granted, we were in the corner of the stadium with the other 15 Cal people who made the trip); (3) it looked like there were only about another 15 Cal people in the Cal rooter section...we did not fill up our section, which, given how easy it is to get to SLC and that this is probably the last time we get to travel here, is disheartening.

What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?

Bowlesman80: Nando good.
sacman701: We averaged 4.1 yards per attempt if you count sacks, which is almost never enough to win. The protection just wasn't there. Mendoza did some good things, but Finley didn't.
Winebear: Some good reads and throws by Mendoza.
HaasBear: Mendoza is the answer at QB. The line is a big issue but at least Nando can operate the offense.
GlueAndBold: Mendoza did pretty well given the circumstances! There were a few poor throws but the drops by receivers and miserable guard play were a far bigger problem.
heyalumnigo: Mendoza had the two good TD passes. Hung in to take a hit on the pass to Ott and then the nice TD pass to Davis. Davis dropped at least 2 passes, both of which would've been nice gains.
Tangtpt: Meh. Fernando is probably our answer. The second touchdown was a fantastic throw.

What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?

sacman701: Ott and Ifanse had 55 yards on 12 carries, which is eh. But why just 12 carries? They've been the one strength of the offense this year.
KJ1980: Ott was solid snd was coming on in the end. Then Cal went into desperation mode snd it was all passes. And Finley was not effective.
Calboy1976: Ott is the MVP. He's keyed on every f'ing week for good reason.
GlueAndBold: Utah's got one of the best run defenses in the nation and we hit that average almost exactly. Ott found some success but didn't have many opportunities.
heyalumnigo: Didn't really get lots of good runs. There were quite a few that were called back due to holding.
Tangtpt: Can only use this strength so much before we get beat down.

What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?

sacman701: Not the problem this week. Utah had about 6 yards per attempt and had only one really damaging play. Once again, though: no sacks.
Winebear: Given how we load the secondary and give big cushions I can see why the Utes might mix in a couple passes, but didn’t need them
KJ1980: Serviceable but gave up too many yards. The Utes are missing their star QB and Cal again made this average QB look like a star
GlueAndBold: The secondary was mostly sound but the pass rush remains abysmal. Some of that is Utah's reliable stout O-line but the lack of containment on the QB proved costly.
TKE Prytanis 79: Better against lesser QB talent than we have seen...last night showed Penix is ready for the NFL!
Tangtpt: Blech...how is it that we so consistently make backup quarterbacks look like Heisman candidates?

What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?

sacman701: Utah does not run well. They came into this game averaging 144 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. They paved us for 317 and 6.0.
Winebear: 317yds? What defense??
HaasBear: I get the Bears are injured but that was as soft and pathetic of a performance as a defense could muster. A team that cannot pass and has safety playing running back dropped 300 rush yards.
Calboy1976: What is happening??
GlueAndBold: Somewhat ok early on but getting thin, bordering on flattened. Allowing 150 yards to a converted RB is a very bad look.
Tangtpt: We wore down at the end. Losing Serman is bad. We gave up over 300 yards on the ground. That is bad.

What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?

sacman701: Missed a chip shot field goal that would have gotten us within 7 late. Once again, the only bright spot was the punting.
KJ1980: The missed field goal was a killer. It was short. We need to send a recruiter to an AYSO game. Painful
GlueAndBold: Would've been completely passable if not for the missed FG. At least it didn't end up mattering.
heyalumnigo: All KOs were into the end zone. But Bhagahni had his first miss. The punts were really good.
Tangtpt: We missed another field goal try. 'Nuff said.
What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?
sacman701: The offense curiously abandoned the run, and the defense was unprepared for what Utah did and unable to make adjustments.
KJ1980: I think the coaches took the week off. Did they think it was the bye week?
Calboy1976: I think the new additions were needed but the talent available is way below 9 teams in the PAC 12
heyalumnigo: Do we have a DC? We do have some injuries, but at some point we should be able to stop the run better than we did.

What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?

Bowlesman80: I think we have the talent. We were out coached.
sacman701: This was a very winnable game against arguably the conference's worst offense, and we got pushed around and outgained by nearly 200 yards. The defense in particular seems to be falling apart as the season goes on, and there isn't much reason to expect another win even against Furd.
HaasBear: Just pathetic, very little to look forward to until we go to Palo Alto.
RememberTheCalamo: This is actually a comment from a couple of weeks ago but I feel like the team lacks discipline. Like, usually you instruct the players to pick up loose balls and hand them to the ref because sometimes weird things happen and it's a TO. We never did that.
KJ1980: Gritty until we lost big.
Calboy1976: We better smoke Stanford.
TKE Prytanis 79: At times exceeded but generally met my expectations
heyalumnigo: The game was competitive much longer than I thought it would be.

Thanks for participating and enjoy the week off, Cal fans. Go for a hike, visit a brewery, get some pumpkins with the family, or find some other way to enjoy a pleasant Saturday. As we have seen this season, such joys on Saturdays are often difficult to find.