Recap: Cal can't slow down Colorado offense in defeat

The Bears fall at altitude in 88-78 loss

photo via @calmbball twitter

Let’s start with a question that borders on the philosophical:

Did Cal lose this game when:
A) Cal went 16 minutes to start the game with only one made 2 point basket.
B) It became immediately clear that the Cal defense didn’t stand any real chance of slowing down the Colorado offense.
C) The moment Cal drew Colorado away on the schedule, because it takes a top 25 level team to beat Colorado in their home gym at altitude.

Let’s take each factor one by one.

To start the game, Cal’s offense wasn’t exactly disastrous. Jalen Celestine and Rodney Brown each nailed multiple three pointers. But Cal couldn’t find a way to get looks inside and more than a few possessions ended in three pointers that weren’t great looks. After 14 minutes of game action, Cal had scored 18 points in 25 possessions (.72 points/possession) and their only two point bucket came on a free layup from Aimaq after one of the most embarrassing flops I’ve ever seen from Eddie Lampkin.

Cal would recover on offense and actually end up having a pretty excellent offensive night. Jaylon Tyson was his typical self, Keonte Kennedy had a great game finishing inside the arc, and Cal would score 60 points across the remaining 52 possessions (1.15 points/possession).

Add it all up and Cal scored 1.01 points/possession across the entire game, a number that only Arizona has bettered on Colorado’s home floor in conference play. But that slow start gave Colorado the time to build a 15 point lead that Cal would cut into but never surmount.

But on the other hand, Cal did get 26 minutes of excellent offensive production, and that should be enough to keep a game competitive. But Colorado got 40 minutes of excellent offensive production, and they had an answer every time Cal got closeish.

After beating Oregon, I praised how far Cal’s defense has come this year, but Colorado, the 2nd best offensive in the conference, humbled Cal. The Buffs were efficient from everywhere on the court, got the line with impunity, punished Cal in transition, found and hit open 3s whenever Cal threatened . . . it was a comprehensive display, led by potential Pac-12 player of the year player of the year KJ Simpson. Colorado’s star was not THAT far away from a triple double, and he had plenty of support from his various co-stars.

Which leads right into the larger reality: beating Colorado in their home gym when they are having a decent or better season is really, really hard. Since joining the Pac-12, the Buffs are a collective 89-29 at home across 13 seasons despite having a top 50 Kenpom team just four times. This team is one of those top 50 teams, and there’s a reason that they have only lost to Arizona in Boulder.

For as much progress as Cal has made this year, this team isn’t quite ready to beat a team like Colorado at altitude. You saw the toughness that has been the hallmark of this team - there were multiple moment when I thought Colorado would turn this game into a one-sided rout, but the Bears responded every time. But they just didn’t have enough stops in them to steal the win. There’s no shame in that, frustrating though it may be.

Other notes:

• That Cal got almost nothing on offense from Jalen Cone and still had a plus offensive game is as good a demonstration as any at how much better Cal has gotten as a team on that side of the ball.

• It’s a little tough to tell for sure, but based on the screen shot below I think Keonte Kennedy literally dunked on Tristan da Silva’s head:

• 5 steals from Jalen Celestine? After his back-to-back steal-and-score plays vs. Oregon? Do we have our perimeter stopper already identified after Keonte Kennedy leaves?

• Madsen tried to buy rest minutes for Fardaws in the first half, but Colorado has too much size for Cal to play small most of the time. It wasn’t a good matchup for Gus Larson, who picked up 3 fouls in four minutes. Devin Curtis faired a touch better, with some active defense and a bucket in 5 minutes.

Next up is Utah, a team that is also tough to beat at home, but more gettable that Colorado. Cal has an extra day of rest to prep and hopefully grab that win that gets them to .500 or better in the conference.