San Diego State Football 2025: Offensive Preview
Cal heads to San Diego as nearly two touchdown road favorites. Can the away team finally win one in this series?
San Diego State is a spooky team, particularly at home. In 9 previous matchups between these two teams, the home team has won every time. The last time these two played at SDSU, Davis Webb threw for 522 yards while SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey ran for 281 yards (and I’m sure you remember the Sonny Dykes defensive era well). SDSU was 6-point favorites at the time, so the result wasn’t particularly surprising, but SDSU certainly carried the underdog/chip on the shoulder attitude into that game. That’s because they remember the last time they were torched by an NFL 1st overall Draft pick in Jared Goff , 35-7. Well SDSU fans, mark this one in your calendar for when it’s time to come back to this article in 3 years. No reason.
The day I published my preview last year, it was announced that SDSU was finally joining the Pac-12.
Athletic director John David Wicker said "We are ecstatic to be joining the Pac-12 Conference". I can just see the ecstasy in his face:
Although SDSU doesn’t join the Pac-12 officially until 2026, this game may be our first look at being on the wrong side of a “Pac-12 After Dark” matchup.
First year head coach Sean Lewis led SDSU to a 3-9 record last year. I mentioned this in last year’s article, but Lewis runs an uptempo spread passing offense with power running schemes attached— SDSU will hit a big play and immediately look to run uptempo. Cal won last year’s matchup in Berkeley, 31-10, a game you might remember for its card stunts, where SDSU players were brutally assaulted by bits of paper flying in from the stands (with the home crowd earning two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and Justin Wilcox pleading with students to knock it off). This was a consequence of Cal moving the student section from the home side of the field to the visitor’s side as part of the move to the ACC, but you can relive this moment in Nick Kranz’s excellent recap if you so please.
SDSU was a very undisciplined football team last year. They had the 3rd most penalties per game in the FBS (8.5 penalties) for the 4th most penalty yards per game (75.6 yards). Even if that sounds manageable (and going 75 yards the wrong way is never a good idea), what’s not captured in the numbers was just how often it was a back-breaking penalty, whether it was to kill a 4th down conversion, or to give the opponent a fresh set of downs at the goal line, and so forth. It’s not just that SDSU had a lot of penalties, they happened to have them at the worst times possible. They’ve cleaned it up a bit this year (38 penalty yards/game so far), but we’re only 2 games into the season, so it’s a bit early to make any rulings here.
Under Lewis, the SDSU offensive is aggressive. They will go for it on 4th and long, they will try trick plays, they’ll try to catch a defense off-guard and set up for the 2-point conversion, and so on. (Of course, execution has been another story).
Let’s take a closer look at the SDSU personnel.
Quarterback
SDSU is led this year by Michigan transfer quarterback Jayden Denegal. (Last year’s starting quarterback, the freshman Danny O’Neil, is now the starting quarterback at Wisconsin).
Denegal is a prototypical sized—listed at 6’5, 230 lbs.—pocket passer. He has some mobility, but he’s not going to be known for his runs. He has a very strong arm, but he’s shown some inconsistent passing mechanics and can occasionally sail a throw. He had Ivy League offers coming out of high school, and previous coaches (like Michigan’s head coach at the time, Jim Harbaugh) have praised his ability to quickly pick up the playbook, so he’s definitely a cerebral quarterback.
Denegal will throw from a variety of arm angles and often with all arm-strength, but he’s clearly capable of whipping the ball across the field at a high velocity:
Denegal is capable of full-field reads, and can be decisive in his reads:
SDSU likes to take shots down the field, and Denegal clearly has the arm to do so:
When Denegal is in rhythm, he’s an accurate passer:
Although Denegal has a cannon of an arm, he could stand to be a bit more accurate on his deep throws, which were inconsistent:
On some of his deep throws, he didn’t even give his receiver a chance at the ball:
In last year’s article, I talked about how head coach Sean Lewis liked to run an RPO offense. As a pocket passer, Denegal doesn’t really fit that mold, but they did throw in some RPO plays to relatively minor success. It appeared to me that the goal of Denegal running the ball was simply to keep defenses honest. The following play worked because the defense bit on the RB, not expecting Denegal to keep it:
Denegal ran the ball a few times early in their first game, but it also felt a bit like “tone setting” to me:
One area that Denegal could improve upon is his touch. He’s got a strong arm, but it seemed like the vast majority of his throws were fastballs, even when there was no reason to be. Here he beans his RB right in the face, before he can get his hands up:
Another area where I think he can improve is in his tendency to lead his receivers into danger. There are rules about hitting a defenseless receiver and all that, but I saw Denegal lead his receivers into danger multiple times, and it definitely had an effect (where a receiver wouldn’t make the catch because they may have been bracing for impact instead).
I think Denegal did a great job fitting this ball in with nice touch, but I am guessing that the receiver seeing a lot of red in the corner of his eye may have affected his ability to pull this one in:
Even though SDSU will have Denegal run the ball, I think the following play shows it’s not really his nature. He could easily convert on 4th down with his legs, but instead takes a shot down the field, and his resulting throw on the run isn’t even close:
Denegal did miss a few throws like this, ones he had no business missing:
Denegal’s release point can vary, and it has an impact on his accuracy, as some throws get away from him:
Although Denegal usually misses high, some of his throws don’t give his receiver much of a chance:
When SDSU wanted to run a more traditional RPO, they brought in the backup Bert Emanuel Jr., who has no problem running the football:
He’ll run the RPO, short yardage situations, QB draws, etc. They have run the ball with Emanuel Jr. to the point where the “pattern break” with Emanuel Jr. will be to have Emanuel Jr. throw the ball instead. SDSU has also had both QBs in on the same play, with Emanuel Jr. taking the snap and Denegal at WR, seemingly setting up a trick play for the future. Just something to keep an eye on as SDSU mixes Emanuel Jr. into the occasional drive.
Running back
SDSU has a pretty even pass/run split, and favors a hard-nosed running style (they also favor local running backs, as all 3 of the below backs are San Diego natives). SDSU runs a running back by committee, and their starting running back is the junior and former 4-star recruit, Lucky Sutton. Sutton is a one-cut, downhill running type of back, and is looking to run people over.
Sutton does a good job of churning his legs and falling forward as he fights for extra yards:
Sutton doesn’t have breakaway speed, but he’s shown more decisiveness this year in hitting the hole:
Although Sutton is usually looking to run over defenders, he has shown a bit of agility at times:
Although Sutton has the most seniority in the RB room, I think Coastal Carolina transfer Christian Washington is the more exciting and promising back. He’s fast, elusive, and more likely to break off a big run:
Washington does a good job to find his lane:
And he’s elusive in the open field:
Washington also showed some versatility as a receiver as well:
Lastly is San Diego native and Cal-transfer, Byron Cardwell Jr., part of last year’s RB room exodus. Cardwell has struggled with injuries during his career, and hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards rushing in a season since his freshman year at Oregon in 2021. Cardwell is a well-rounded back with a nice blend of size, speed, and power. We only really saw him in mop-up duty at Cal, but he showed nice quickness and agility during his time at Oregon (and I don’t know if this has been affected at all by his injury history). He had this nice run in the first game of the season:
Of course, it’s worth remembering that Cardwell is also a capable pass-catching threat out of the backfield:
I feel so dirty using Cal clips in my previews.
Receivers
SDSU’s leading return receiver and QB Jayden Denegal’s current most targeted player is WR Jordan Napier. Napier is a dynamic player who SDSU will involve in a variety of ways, whether it’s on jet sweeps, screen passes, or a downfield shot. You may remember Napier from his highlight of the year last year against Cal:
Napier is a reliable target and has shown good hands, often adjusting to less-than-ideal throws:
Here Napier does a good job of reading the ball in the air:
Napier can also win with pure speed:
And on the very next play, Napier did this:
Outside of Napier, there are a lot of new faces in the receiver room. The starting X receiver is Syracuse/Monroe transfer Donovan Brown, and the starting Z receiver is Texas A&M transfer Jacob Bostick (Napier starts at the slot). Backing up Bostick is Northwestern State (FCS) transfer Myles Kitt-Denton, with Fresno State transfer Nathan Acevedo in the slot, as well as returning SDSU receivers Jerry McClure at the X and Mikey Welsh in the slot.
Donovan Brown’s big catch can be seen above in the QB section, although he currently holds the strange stat line of having 5 catches for 43 yards on the season, with his longest reception being 44 yards.
Jacob Bostick is currently shaping up to be Denegal’s second favorite target after Napier. Here Bostick does a nice job of climbing the ladder to make this catch:
The following play can be attributed to the defensive line giving Denegal way too much time to throw, but Bostick does a good job of working himself open here (also note here and in previous clips how SDSU can be very aggressive even on 4th down and 5+ yards to go):
We haven’t seen too much of Bostick’s backup, Myles Kitt-Denton, but he looked to be a speedster that could get open deep for the big play at Northwestern State:
And again:
SDSU doesn’t have a clear standout at tight end, and 4 TEs have already seen action: Seth Adams, Jackson Ford, Ryan Wolfer, and Arthur Ban. All of them are redshirt freshmen besides Seth Adams, the starter. Adams is an FCS transfer, but more interestingly, is a converted offensive lineman:
Very limited sample size here, but Fresno State transfer Nathan Acevedo showed some elusiveness in open space:
Look for SDSU to stretch the field vertically (particularly after pounding the run) with a lot of these receivers running go-routes as SDSU tries to pick up the bulk of its yards on explosive plays.
Conclusion
I’ve been a Cal fan long enough to never be comfortable no matter what Vegas or anyone says about Cal’s chances. SDSU is a tough home team, and in 9 historical matchups between Cal and SDSU, the home team has won every game. Even down 29-7 against Washington State, you could still hear the “Let’s Go Aztecs!” chants on the broadcast, so SDSU fans will certainly show up. SDSU also had a bye week last week, so they also have had an extra week to prepare for Cal. We’ve also seen Cal teams loaded with NFL talent lose absolute stinkers to huge underdogs (usually to Oregon State in Corvallis, but still). Previous SDSU matchups featured NFL-caliber talent, typically at RB (e.g. 1st round pick Rashaad Penny, 4th round pick Donnel Pumphrey), but to be frank, I’m just not seeing that on this roster. It’s kind of an unfortunate byproduct of the current college football landscape, where the talented freshman QB that SDSU discovered is now starting in the Big Ten for Wisconsin, their top receiver is at Baylor, and so on. Although I know SDSU fans will show up and it will be a hostile road test for Cal, it’s just hard for me to picture an SDSU upset with the talent advantage that Cal has (barring a disastrous injury). Of course you can never overlook an opponent, but I am a writer, so… I think I’m allowed such transgressions. I’ll also be at the game, so feel free to say hi and introduce yourself if you see me.
As always,
Go Bears!
You can find my full clips here.
Great as usual Christopher. We'll be at the game as well, bringing our young grandson to his first Cal game. In the Cal section, Sec 112, row 30, seats 12-15. If you are anywhere near, swing by and say hey!
Seems like a good opportunity for Zeke Masses to get INT's number 4 and 5 on the season.