You know I love you Nick but looking at the late portal window by itself without considering the entirety of the portal is misleading. Its not "Avi writes an article with a terrible headline but gives no context" misleading, but it doesn't paint the whole picture.
QB: Short term dip as Mendoza is more proven and can shown he can throw well inside 15 yards but Brown and JKS are not a big dip overall.
RB: We lost 3 depth role players plus Ott and Jet. Ott was a non factor last year and Jet did well running but cant block to save his life. Total, they ran for about 1k yards? The 3 incoming transfers all averaged over 5 ypc and fit the new offense better. Plus, they block. Don't forget Wiley made a big jump and the incoming frosh, League, is very talented as well. Frankly, I think the RB room will have a significantly better year than last year.
WR: Losing Hunter (solid production) and Martin (potential) sucked but all the others were pure bread. Brady got recruited over (likely 3rd string slot now) and the next time Merriweather puts some effort onto the field, will be the first time. Starling, Anderson...both busts and Matthews flattered to deceive. Hamper, Adams and Dejesus are at least on par with the departing players and in case of the slot, is a significant upgrade. Overall, the WR position is at worst even with last year and I think the potential is higher.
TE: Definitely a downgrade. Endries is a Pro but Cal wasn't paying $1.2M to hold onto him. Mini, Johnson and Marshall are a solid but unspectacular group.
OL: Miles better. Continents better. Universes better.
And I suspect we'll still see a couple more adds to the roster. WR and TE seem likely but will be depth adds in all likelihood. I feel pretty good about our roster now and the fit with the new offensive scheme. Question will be turnovers (how many do we commit) but with out overall schedule, a strong season is more likely than not IMO
It wasn't my intent to be misleading - mostly, I just didn't want to clutter up what has happened in the spring portal by rehashing the winter portal round-up that I linked to, but it's true that we don't have the full picture just in this post.
I guess where I would particularly disagree with you is on the running back room. True, Cal brought in three competent running backs - but based on what I've seen, none of them come particularly close to Ott's ceiling, as he's the only guy who's been on the roster with the potential to actually bring all-conference level play to the position. Really, what I think we have right now is like-for-like reshuffling, plus losing Ott, but as of right now 4 scholarship RBs just isn't enough. Cal's had injury disasters at RB with 6 or 7 dudes at the position.
And I have similar concerns at WR, where the numbers just aren't high enough. Nothing against Quaron Adams (who I missed in my roundup, mea culpa) but if you're relying on a guy with 18 FCS catches to immediately step in and be a plus contributor at a power conference level in an offense that is turning over nearly every position . . . I think you're going to have a bad time.
Fair points to disagree on. I think what got me was the appearance of looking at it in a vacuum. Now that you've explained it to me, I see what you were trying to do but I still think separating the portal periods leads to only half the story. The entirety of the portal is needed to assess the +/- of the ins and outs as like for likes were added and subtracted.
I would agree that Ott has the highest ceiling overall but does he fit a power running system? Does Jet? Its a shame they left because I feel like the OL is going to be miles better and they both would've potentially benefitted but also, both of them weren't much for blocking (Ott much better than Jet- Jet didn't block well at all)
On WR, I think I will continue to disagree with you. While its fair to worry about the numbers (I think they'll grab 1 more guy whose quality remains to be seen), how angsty are we about losing any of those dudes except Hunter? We've massively upgraded our speed at the position in James and Adams, DeJesus is a baller as we well know and Hamper looks a really good prospect. The only real question is Hamper an equivalent value to Hunter? All the other guys we lost at the position, we've upgraded on IMO (James for Martin might be a toss up)
Unrelated, but I miss seeing "Cal football loses everything at Colorado" in bold on the side column on the front page everyday for a year. Teeheehe I kid.
Technically a true statement but was that really the story? Calloway, Cardwell and JWT got surpassed by Wiley and his 6 2024 carries in the Spring and were pure bread. Everyone expected them to leave. The real story was Ott and Thomas leaving but that can happen when position coaches and offensive scheme change (same with Toler and the WR room). Instead, with that tweet taken in a vacuum, Cal got significant negative national coverage, primarily using you as a source (at least the sources I saw and heard: including mentions on the SiriusXM College channel, the Texas board, Reddit, etc). The flare up of "its Harsin's fault" because people needed a reason to explain this "disaster" burned bright without any real evidence of wrong doing except past anecdotes that he is a jerk and can't recruit from Auburn and Boise. And the Cal fanbase, which needs no additional help with angst, got mega angsty over this situation and I believe potentially turned some fans away from the team this Fall. Without context, your story fanned some serious flames that didn't need fanning and Cal suffered some damage as a result.
You've got a significant voice in the Cal community. I don't expect you to be a Cal homer if that isn't your style or preference. If you have opinions that are counter to Cal's self perceived "best interests", go ahead and express them. But use your platform to provide context and color to situations so that the ridiculously tough journey Cal must make in the next few years to stay relevant, isn't that much more difficult.
Mendoza stock has skyrocked and several of the draft boards have him going in the first round. Brown is unproven as starter and nothing yet would indicate he could be a first round NFL pick. Jaron-Keawe has loads to potential and is a true freshman. Cal might struggle to keep him next year if he is not named the starter by then.
WR - Hunter was a major loss. Size, hands and just a sophomore.
TE - As you say we lost a future pro.
RB - Believe what you want. Ott was injured last year, but healthy he was pre-season All American and OU seems ever so happy to have him. Jet to UCLA. None of the RBs we got back are rated as highly as those two. Hope the OL is better to create some holes but the speed is not the same.
Overall 247 has Cal's combined HS and Transfer class ranked 13th in the ACC
We're not going to rank highly with this type of turnover. The reason we were ranked highly before is because Wilcox overachieves when it comes to player retention. Every year, he was able to upgrade positions until we basically maxed out last year (and you can see that with all the demand for our starters). With essentially all of our skill positions starters leaving, unless we're recruiting along the lines of like tOSU I don't think it's possible to recruit in a way that can defy the way those scoring models work.
More than anything, we don't really need elite WRs and RBs right now. If we have an OL that can block and create holes, decent RBs will do. If they run their routes and don't drop balls, the type of WRs we currently have will be absolutely fine.
It all hinges on the OL improving and a QB winning the competition decisively. I have a feeling this season will be very similar to Wilcox's first or second with us. Death grip defense with an offense that's just slightly below where it needs to be.
You make a lot of good points. However, attacking people who take the time to write down their own thoughts just for the love of the game is not right. I don't always agree with Nick and Avi, but I always appreciate them starting the discussion and contributing to this community. Just reading this one comment, you are certainly well-spoken enough to provide real constructive criticism if you want to. Lets do better and GO BEARS!
I've known Nick and Avi for years. I expressed an opinion to Nick but your point on my Avi comment is fair and I've outlined my stance below. When we run into each other this fall, Avi will either punch me in the face or politely disagree with me since he is a pretty polite dude in person
Those are good points. The TE position is the major area of loss. Ott is a question mark; maybe OU knows something we don't. Mendoza was good last season, but not great, can he be good again? We must hope Harsin's offensive system is greater than any individual player.
I’ll root for the Bears and hope for the best. Maybe we will get lucky and do some successful trickeration, the ball will bounce our way, field goal attempts are good, and the officials will make a mistake or two in favor of the Blue and Gold. I’d say we are (way) over due for some positive serendipity.
I’ve been waiting for someone to put something like this together—it’s been tough keeping track of everything.
It’s definitely a gut punch to lose so much production from proven starters, but honestly, that’s the reality for almost every program outside of the perennial powerhouses in the national title conversation every year. I’ve caught myself wondering how fans of programs like North Dakota State feel. Do they find contentment in consistent success, even while dealing with constant turnover?
At this point, I’m just hoping the current staff knows how to build and adapt the offense around the talent that’s still on the roster. Maybe there are a few hidden gems we just haven’t seen yet. The portal helps, but it can’t fix everything.
That said, my optimistic outlook: Brown wins the QB1 job, the O-line takes a meaningful step forward, our 215-pound running backs punish defenses and keep them honest, the defense keeps us in games, and someone from the WR room gives us a surprise spark.
This is a train wreck in the making. Year after year Wilcox is unable to keep his top talent. Every top offensive player is gone from last year.How does the fan base get behind this and buy tickets? I don’t care if they brought in Rivera, he wasn’t exactly tearing it up in the NFL. The Wilcox and Knowlton era needs to end!
He loses top talent because he can’t coach them and the whole team to the next level, let alone a winning season. The talent was there but not the coaching. Just imagine what a good (not even great) Coach would have done.
So true all of what you wrote. The good news is that GM Rivera seems to have taken more control over the program, even if reporting lines have not changed. Boosters seemed to have ended their standoff. On offense we don't ppear to have the talent or depth of last year, but let's hope we see an improvement on the OL. As we move forward the NCAA new revenue sharing should level the playing field a bit more than the NIL free for all we have now.
I suspect that Jaron will not actually be the best QB on the team for Game 1 this year, but it would probably be better for the long term health of the program to let him learn on the job like we did for Goff as a true freshman. Whether or not Wilcox can afford to lose games letting a young QB take his lumps is a different question.
True, though he probably can’t afford to lose them regardless of who is QB…and we know that Wilcox is guaranteed to make the wrong decision when it comes to the QB position, so hopefully RR, Harsin, Rolo and Famika make the call rather than JW.
I guess my concern is that Devin Brown is simply not that good of a QB…just because you were on the roster of a great team doesn’t make you good, and that Cotton Bowl performance v Mizzou left plenty to be desired. The extent of his playing experience has been handing off in blowouts, so just because he’s an upperclassmen does not necessarily make him better, as we saw in spring.
For how likable Ott was as a guy, he gave them basically nothing last year. Jet’s a bummer, but if the OL blocks better we’ll be fine. If not, it doesn’t matter and this whole staff will be gone.
Again, Jet. But the guys they added are better than the RBs they lost, IMO.
As for Ott, like FM he can go F himself after bagging on Cal on IG multiple times. Enjoy Norman and getting the crap kicked out of you by NFL draft picks in the SEC.
Agree that the OL is a major upgrade. Hard disagree that the RB room is an upgrade. That’s spin. Maybe it’s a wash between when you put together both, but the RB room is objectively worse or at the very least, unclear.
You know I love you Nick but looking at the late portal window by itself without considering the entirety of the portal is misleading. Its not "Avi writes an article with a terrible headline but gives no context" misleading, but it doesn't paint the whole picture.
QB: Short term dip as Mendoza is more proven and can shown he can throw well inside 15 yards but Brown and JKS are not a big dip overall.
RB: We lost 3 depth role players plus Ott and Jet. Ott was a non factor last year and Jet did well running but cant block to save his life. Total, they ran for about 1k yards? The 3 incoming transfers all averaged over 5 ypc and fit the new offense better. Plus, they block. Don't forget Wiley made a big jump and the incoming frosh, League, is very talented as well. Frankly, I think the RB room will have a significantly better year than last year.
WR: Losing Hunter (solid production) and Martin (potential) sucked but all the others were pure bread. Brady got recruited over (likely 3rd string slot now) and the next time Merriweather puts some effort onto the field, will be the first time. Starling, Anderson...both busts and Matthews flattered to deceive. Hamper, Adams and Dejesus are at least on par with the departing players and in case of the slot, is a significant upgrade. Overall, the WR position is at worst even with last year and I think the potential is higher.
TE: Definitely a downgrade. Endries is a Pro but Cal wasn't paying $1.2M to hold onto him. Mini, Johnson and Marshall are a solid but unspectacular group.
OL: Miles better. Continents better. Universes better.
And I suspect we'll still see a couple more adds to the roster. WR and TE seem likely but will be depth adds in all likelihood. I feel pretty good about our roster now and the fit with the new offensive scheme. Question will be turnovers (how many do we commit) but with out overall schedule, a strong season is more likely than not IMO
It wasn't my intent to be misleading - mostly, I just didn't want to clutter up what has happened in the spring portal by rehashing the winter portal round-up that I linked to, but it's true that we don't have the full picture just in this post.
I guess where I would particularly disagree with you is on the running back room. True, Cal brought in three competent running backs - but based on what I've seen, none of them come particularly close to Ott's ceiling, as he's the only guy who's been on the roster with the potential to actually bring all-conference level play to the position. Really, what I think we have right now is like-for-like reshuffling, plus losing Ott, but as of right now 4 scholarship RBs just isn't enough. Cal's had injury disasters at RB with 6 or 7 dudes at the position.
And I have similar concerns at WR, where the numbers just aren't high enough. Nothing against Quaron Adams (who I missed in my roundup, mea culpa) but if you're relying on a guy with 18 FCS catches to immediately step in and be a plus contributor at a power conference level in an offense that is turning over nearly every position . . . I think you're going to have a bad time.
Fair points to disagree on. I think what got me was the appearance of looking at it in a vacuum. Now that you've explained it to me, I see what you were trying to do but I still think separating the portal periods leads to only half the story. The entirety of the portal is needed to assess the +/- of the ins and outs as like for likes were added and subtracted.
I would agree that Ott has the highest ceiling overall but does he fit a power running system? Does Jet? Its a shame they left because I feel like the OL is going to be miles better and they both would've potentially benefitted but also, both of them weren't much for blocking (Ott much better than Jet- Jet didn't block well at all)
On WR, I think I will continue to disagree with you. While its fair to worry about the numbers (I think they'll grab 1 more guy whose quality remains to be seen), how angsty are we about losing any of those dudes except Hunter? We've massively upgraded our speed at the position in James and Adams, DeJesus is a baller as we well know and Hamper looks a really good prospect. The only real question is Hamper an equivalent value to Hunter? All the other guys we lost at the position, we've upgraded on IMO (James for Martin might be a toss up)
Exactly what articles are you referring to?
Unrelated, but I miss seeing "Cal football loses everything at Colorado" in bold on the side column on the front page everyday for a year. Teeheehe I kid.
Example: CAL LOSES TOP 5 RBS TO PORTAL
Technically a true statement but was that really the story? Calloway, Cardwell and JWT got surpassed by Wiley and his 6 2024 carries in the Spring and were pure bread. Everyone expected them to leave. The real story was Ott and Thomas leaving but that can happen when position coaches and offensive scheme change (same with Toler and the WR room). Instead, with that tweet taken in a vacuum, Cal got significant negative national coverage, primarily using you as a source (at least the sources I saw and heard: including mentions on the SiriusXM College channel, the Texas board, Reddit, etc). The flare up of "its Harsin's fault" because people needed a reason to explain this "disaster" burned bright without any real evidence of wrong doing except past anecdotes that he is a jerk and can't recruit from Auburn and Boise. And the Cal fanbase, which needs no additional help with angst, got mega angsty over this situation and I believe potentially turned some fans away from the team this Fall. Without context, your story fanned some serious flames that didn't need fanning and Cal suffered some damage as a result.
You've got a significant voice in the Cal community. I don't expect you to be a Cal homer if that isn't your style or preference. If you have opinions that are counter to Cal's self perceived "best interests", go ahead and express them. But use your platform to provide context and color to situations so that the ridiculously tough journey Cal must make in the next few years to stay relevant, isn't that much more difficult.
Just my opinion.
Oohhh Fire Starkey, youza in some a trouble (Jar Jar made me write that).
That is certainly an optimistic look
Mendoza stock has skyrocked and several of the draft boards have him going in the first round. Brown is unproven as starter and nothing yet would indicate he could be a first round NFL pick. Jaron-Keawe has loads to potential and is a true freshman. Cal might struggle to keep him next year if he is not named the starter by then.
WR - Hunter was a major loss. Size, hands and just a sophomore.
TE - As you say we lost a future pro.
RB - Believe what you want. Ott was injured last year, but healthy he was pre-season All American and OU seems ever so happy to have him. Jet to UCLA. None of the RBs we got back are rated as highly as those two. Hope the OL is better to create some holes but the speed is not the same.
Overall 247 has Cal's combined HS and Transfer class ranked 13th in the ACC
https://247sports.com/college/alabama/season/2025-football/overallteamrankings/?Conference=ACC
Hope for the best.
We're not going to rank highly with this type of turnover. The reason we were ranked highly before is because Wilcox overachieves when it comes to player retention. Every year, he was able to upgrade positions until we basically maxed out last year (and you can see that with all the demand for our starters). With essentially all of our skill positions starters leaving, unless we're recruiting along the lines of like tOSU I don't think it's possible to recruit in a way that can defy the way those scoring models work.
More than anything, we don't really need elite WRs and RBs right now. If we have an OL that can block and create holes, decent RBs will do. If they run their routes and don't drop balls, the type of WRs we currently have will be absolutely fine.
It all hinges on the OL improving and a QB winning the competition decisively. I have a feeling this season will be very similar to Wilcox's first or second with us. Death grip defense with an offense that's just slightly below where it needs to be.
You make a lot of good points. However, attacking people who take the time to write down their own thoughts just for the love of the game is not right. I don't always agree with Nick and Avi, but I always appreciate them starting the discussion and contributing to this community. Just reading this one comment, you are certainly well-spoken enough to provide real constructive criticism if you want to. Lets do better and GO BEARS!
I've known Nick and Avi for years. I expressed an opinion to Nick but your point on my Avi comment is fair and I've outlined my stance below. When we run into each other this fall, Avi will either punch me in the face or politely disagree with me since he is a pretty polite dude in person
Those are good points. The TE position is the major area of loss. Ott is a question mark; maybe OU knows something we don't. Mendoza was good last season, but not great, can he be good again? We must hope Harsin's offensive system is greater than any individual player.
This is solid. I couldn’t agree more.
Agreed.
Missing Quaron Adams at WR?
Yep, edited to reflect that I missed his addition.
And don't sleep on Dazmin James at WR!
Thanks for the those sobering words Nick.
I’ll root for the Bears and hope for the best. Maybe we will get lucky and do some successful trickeration, the ball will bounce our way, field goal attempts are good, and the officials will make a mistake or two in favor of the Blue and Gold. I’d say we are (way) over due for some positive serendipity.
Go Bears!!
Good news is the vast majority of our games are on the west coast next season, so no travel excuses.
That's bad news that we won't be able to use travel excuses.
Yes! Palms of Victory. The Golden Bear will re-emerge from his Lair once again and wander down the Strawberry Creek, eating salmon. Go Bears!
I’ve been waiting for someone to put something like this together—it’s been tough keeping track of everything.
It’s definitely a gut punch to lose so much production from proven starters, but honestly, that’s the reality for almost every program outside of the perennial powerhouses in the national title conversation every year. I’ve caught myself wondering how fans of programs like North Dakota State feel. Do they find contentment in consistent success, even while dealing with constant turnover?
At this point, I’m just hoping the current staff knows how to build and adapt the offense around the talent that’s still on the roster. Maybe there are a few hidden gems we just haven’t seen yet. The portal helps, but it can’t fix everything.
That said, my optimistic outlook: Brown wins the QB1 job, the O-line takes a meaningful step forward, our 215-pound running backs punish defenses and keep them honest, the defense keeps us in games, and someone from the WR room gives us a surprise spark.
It’s all about the OL. And the OL coach. Both seem to be a major upgrade.
Thanks...clear eyed reporting and thinking...now what do us sunshine pumpers do with it?? Pump sunshine baby! GO BEARS FOREVER!
This is a train wreck in the making. Year after year Wilcox is unable to keep his top talent. Every top offensive player is gone from last year.How does the fan base get behind this and buy tickets? I don’t care if they brought in Rivera, he wasn’t exactly tearing it up in the NFL. The Wilcox and Knowlton era needs to end!
He loses top talent because he can’t coach them and the whole team to the next level, let alone a winning season. The talent was there but not the coaching. Just imagine what a good (not even great) Coach would have done.
So true all of what you wrote. The good news is that GM Rivera seems to have taken more control over the program, even if reporting lines have not changed. Boosters seemed to have ended their standoff. On offense we don't ppear to have the talent or depth of last year, but let's hope we see an improvement on the OL. As we move forward the NCAA new revenue sharing should level the playing field a bit more than the NIL free for all we have now.
Cal should have done whatever it took to keep the Jet.
Jet leaving really hurt me. But, I got over it and I'm really rooting for Wiley now. We'll see how I get hurt next.
It's as if Justin Wilcox has no clue about offensive coaches, coaching or players.
I guess the fundraising goal of 500k plus the 500k match was met again. Ron Rivera sent out a blurb to that effect by email
In other words, let’s enjoy Jaron while we can.
He should start day 1.
I suspect that Jaron will not actually be the best QB on the team for Game 1 this year, but it would probably be better for the long term health of the program to let him learn on the job like we did for Goff as a true freshman. Whether or not Wilcox can afford to lose games letting a young QB take his lumps is a different question.
True, though he probably can’t afford to lose them regardless of who is QB…and we know that Wilcox is guaranteed to make the wrong decision when it comes to the QB position, so hopefully RR, Harsin, Rolo and Famika make the call rather than JW.
I guess my concern is that Devin Brown is simply not that good of a QB…just because you were on the roster of a great team doesn’t make you good, and that Cotton Bowl performance v Mizzou left plenty to be desired. The extent of his playing experience has been handing off in blowouts, so just because he’s an upperclassmen does not necessarily make him better, as we saw in spring.
I would have disagreed with you a couple of months ago, but we need to get value out of the investment of time and money while we can.
DB hasn’t shown enough IMO to justify starting JUST bc he was a backup in Columbus on a great team. Plus he was awful in the ‘24 bowl game.
I think one of the below three will happen.
JKS wins starting job. He has a solid season and transfers at end of 2025 for a bigger program.
Brown will be backup and transfers at end of 2025 for final opportunity to start somewhere.
JKS wins starting job. He has a rookie like season and transfers at end of 2025 looking for a better program.
Brown will be backup and transfers at end of 2025 for final opportunity to start somewhere.
Brown wins starting job. He has a solid season and transfers at end of 2025 for bigger NIL.
JKS transfers at end of 2025 for riding the bench all season and looking for opportunities elsewhere.
Agreed, but let me present the scenario where either one stays:
.
I disagree, so the coaching remains the same, especially on the offensive side of the ball. On paper the OL and rb's are much better. We'll see....
How is the RB much better? It's much worse.
Definitely deeper.
For how likable Ott was as a guy, he gave them basically nothing last year. Jet’s a bummer, but if the OL blocks better we’ll be fine. If not, it doesn’t matter and this whole staff will be gone.
I think product on the field will be similar, but he said on paper. I think on paper the previous guys were much better.
Again, Jet. But the guys they added are better than the RBs they lost, IMO.
As for Ott, like FM he can go F himself after bagging on Cal on IG multiple times. Enjoy Norman and getting the crap kicked out of you by NFL draft picks in the SEC.
Agree that the OL is a major upgrade. Hard disagree that the RB room is an upgrade. That’s spin. Maybe it’s a wash between when you put together both, but the RB room is objectively worse or at the very least, unclear.
Last year had higher upside in the RB room, this year we hopefully have more depth. It felt like everyone was always injured in our last group.