This is great, Nick! The one piece missing from the equation are high school recruits once they sign in February. Transfers are typically more ready to start than freshmen, but it gets harder to pull transfers into an already crowded room where they won't get snaps. So freshmen may be the best way to maximize overall talent deeper in the chart.
Long story short, departures and replacements don't necessarily have to match 1:1 with the portal. It's great to check the temperature, but Tosh isn't finished cooking yet.
This is a great analysis and solid foundation for future revisions. There’s little doubt that Tosh has done an outstanding job of portal acquisitions after securing JKS as the team anchor and significant attraction à la Mendoza at Indiana. If he can attract a few more productive players at several key positions combined with some stars out of high school, the 2026 football season could be something more than a building year for Cal football. I’m definitely impressed with both the recruited players snd new coaching staff. Hats off to Tosh and RR for all their efforts so far!
Wow there is a lot of money out there. Understand that the NIL Clemson offered to Ferrelli was in the range of $800K-$1 million. Now topped by Old Miss. Any guess on how big the package that Uluave received at BYU? Packages for the top position players have exploded, not just QBs..
He would have had to have entered his name into the portal, which means if he's playing FBS ball next year it will be at Cal. His eligibility is tied up to the Diego Pavia JC-eligibility lawsuit. There was a recent ruling that was favorable to the NCAA, so at this point I would not feel super confident that De Jesus will be able to play for Cal next year: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6975458/2026/01/15/ncaa-redshirt-rules-langston-patterson-case/
I get that, but also noteworthy that Cal didn't or couldn't pay the inflated asking price for proven lineman. It's my understanding that places like Texas Tech and Indiana paid those prices to vault into the playoffs, so Cal isn't entirely copying those models despite Ron alluding to Indiana as a model for Cal. Tosh has been clear that he sees high school recruiting as the foundation, but there's also a sense of urgency that doesn't fully align with that timeline.
In my opinion, Cal exceeded portal expectations for the skill positions, and did so quickly, but has been solid if unspectacular elsewhere, creating a mildly inflated sense of portal success. Definitely a higher athletic profile in the trenches and probably throughout, with many guys having multiple years of eligibility, but we'll need developmental luck to compete for an ACC title in 2026. 2027 seems like the real target - they got JKS some weapons to show off and stay happy in 2026 while the staff can develop and assess the more athletic roster then we'll see if Cal actually has the money and the wherewithal to pay for a fully Tosh'd up 2027 high school recruiting class and to top off the 2027 roster in the portal to make a serious push in JKS' junior year.
"It's my understanding that places like Texas Tech and Indiana paid those prices to vault into the playoffs"
For what it's worth, Indiana really didn't pay top dollar for their portal guys. Their success really was more about talent identification and development. Pat Coogan, a center transfer from Notre Dame, was probably their most note-worth pickup other than Fernando, but centers just don't demand the type of spend that tackles and edge guys do.
You are right about Texas Tech, and they're probably the single biggest transfer portal spenders. Cal probably just doesn't have their level of money to spend. Maybe someday!
given that scarcity it's even more nuts that miami has five 5-star linemen, mostly recruited from high school. Apparently Cristobol as an ex-OL coach is a magnet for that kind of talent. Hoping Tosh can reproduce some of that here
The current rule is that teams are limited to 105 roster spots, all of which can be offered scholarships if the school wants. I’d have to do some math to try to figure out how close Cal is to hitting that cap but as far as I’m aware there’s plenty of space currently
Thoughtful analysis. At the end of the day it is hard to judge the progress made or lost on the OL and DL. We have lost 3 star level players and replaced with other three star (portal rankings) players. Will these positions be better or worse next year? Much will depend on how our new coaching staff, delivers. To get a better overall idea of talent added for next season, relative to the competition in the ACC, we should take into account our High School class as well. We were well down the ACC rankings in that regards. Overall 247 rates Cal's HS + Portal = 10th in the ACC. Miami is on top. The big movers have been North Carolina #3 and VT #4. A big difference is the the number of 4 star ranked players these schools have successfully recruited. We won't turn around our roster in one season. Hopefully success next season will build on the momentum we are building in the portal.
Thank you Nick, your work is always so good. I am going to keep this summation for future reference as we fill out with additional players. The coaches have done impressive work in the portal. I am still buggin a bit on the OL, can't help it.
Another curious thing about 24/7 and On3: 24/7 says we have five 4 stars coming in, but On3 says we only have three. This has been the case for some days now.
This article epitomizes why I subscribe to this site. Great stuff!
Agreed and WFC is better than the comp by a mile
what comp :)
100%!
This is great, Nick! The one piece missing from the equation are high school recruits once they sign in February. Transfers are typically more ready to start than freshmen, but it gets harder to pull transfers into an already crowded room where they won't get snaps. So freshmen may be the best way to maximize overall talent deeper in the chart.
Long story short, departures and replacements don't necessarily have to match 1:1 with the portal. It's great to check the temperature, but Tosh isn't finished cooking yet.
This is a great analysis and solid foundation for future revisions. There’s little doubt that Tosh has done an outstanding job of portal acquisitions after securing JKS as the team anchor and significant attraction à la Mendoza at Indiana. If he can attract a few more productive players at several key positions combined with some stars out of high school, the 2026 football season could be something more than a building year for Cal football. I’m definitely impressed with both the recruited players snd new coaching staff. Hats off to Tosh and RR for all their efforts so far!
Wow there is a lot of money out there. Understand that the NIL Clemson offered to Ferrelli was in the range of $800K-$1 million. Now topped by Old Miss. Any guess on how big the package that Uluave received at BYU? Packages for the top position players have exploded, not just QBs..
Fantastic breakdown!
Side note: What are the odds Jacob De Jesus gets the extra year, and if he does, is he committed to Cal, or does he have options?
He would have had to have entered his name into the portal, which means if he's playing FBS ball next year it will be at Cal. His eligibility is tied up to the Diego Pavia JC-eligibility lawsuit. There was a recent ruling that was favorable to the NCAA, so at this point I would not feel super confident that De Jesus will be able to play for Cal next year: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6975458/2026/01/15/ncaa-redshirt-rules-langston-patterson-case/
I believe this case noted is a different case. The relevant case for Jacob has a hearing Feb 10. I am optimistic only because the case is being heard in Tennessee and the Vols have a quarterback whose eligibility also is at stake. https://www.si.com/college/tennessee/football/tennessee-football-qb-joey-aguilar-s-hearing-date-has-been-revealed-01kfbepvw7fy
This is where my lack of lawyerly knowledge becomes a real handicap!
Oh, I don’t know anything either. But I am fairly certain that Judge Campbell has many friends and neighbors that are Tennessee alums!
Uh oh. Just noticed the judge went to Alabama for law school! At least not for undergrad!!
Great info, thanks to both of you!
I want to borrow Pat Mc’s word “punters are people too!” Where is Angus Davies?
Lowkey excited about this Aussie punter we got.
I mean ideally he gets maybe 1 snap a game.
49ers attempted only one punt this past weekend. Game was 41-6. Lost. Bizarre stat
True.
The Juice option play v THAT SEA D to the short side of the field was a puzzler.
They also hold FG + PAT. W kicker Murray gone, he might also kickoff since kicker Meyer didn’t have enough leg to do it last year
why the trench positions all PUSH 😩
Mostly because the lines are by far the most difficult to build via the portal due to scarcity of proven high impact players.
I get that, but also noteworthy that Cal didn't or couldn't pay the inflated asking price for proven lineman. It's my understanding that places like Texas Tech and Indiana paid those prices to vault into the playoffs, so Cal isn't entirely copying those models despite Ron alluding to Indiana as a model for Cal. Tosh has been clear that he sees high school recruiting as the foundation, but there's also a sense of urgency that doesn't fully align with that timeline.
In my opinion, Cal exceeded portal expectations for the skill positions, and did so quickly, but has been solid if unspectacular elsewhere, creating a mildly inflated sense of portal success. Definitely a higher athletic profile in the trenches and probably throughout, with many guys having multiple years of eligibility, but we'll need developmental luck to compete for an ACC title in 2026. 2027 seems like the real target - they got JKS some weapons to show off and stay happy in 2026 while the staff can develop and assess the more athletic roster then we'll see if Cal actually has the money and the wherewithal to pay for a fully Tosh'd up 2027 high school recruiting class and to top off the 2027 roster in the portal to make a serious push in JKS' junior year.
"It's my understanding that places like Texas Tech and Indiana paid those prices to vault into the playoffs"
For what it's worth, Indiana really didn't pay top dollar for their portal guys. Their success really was more about talent identification and development. Pat Coogan, a center transfer from Notre Dame, was probably their most note-worth pickup other than Fernando, but centers just don't demand the type of spend that tackles and edge guys do.
You are right about Texas Tech, and they're probably the single biggest transfer portal spenders. Cal probably just doesn't have their level of money to spend. Maybe someday!
given that scarcity it's even more nuts that miami has five 5-star linemen, mostly recruited from high school. Apparently Cristobol as an ex-OL coach is a magnet for that kind of talent. Hoping Tosh can reproduce some of that here
bc that's their job.
That’s where I was going too….. 😬
As always, Nick, a wonderful analysis of our portal situation to date! Thanks!
We got LB from USC
How many more roster/scholarship spots does Cal have? At some point does that become an issue?
The current rule is that teams are limited to 105 roster spots, all of which can be offered scholarships if the school wants. I’d have to do some math to try to figure out how close Cal is to hitting that cap but as far as I’m aware there’s plenty of space currently
Thoughtful analysis. At the end of the day it is hard to judge the progress made or lost on the OL and DL. We have lost 3 star level players and replaced with other three star (portal rankings) players. Will these positions be better or worse next year? Much will depend on how our new coaching staff, delivers. To get a better overall idea of talent added for next season, relative to the competition in the ACC, we should take into account our High School class as well. We were well down the ACC rankings in that regards. Overall 247 rates Cal's HS + Portal = 10th in the ACC. Miami is on top. The big movers have been North Carolina #3 and VT #4. A big difference is the the number of 4 star ranked players these schools have successfully recruited. We won't turn around our roster in one season. Hopefully success next season will build on the momentum we are building in the portal.
Considering our not so great line play last year (esp offense)
I am totally ok replacing players with other players and banking on potential or HS rankings.
Either you bank on new group with potential, or old group breaking out.
I like the chances of the of the former more.
Our OL wasn’t great last year, but I think our defense was worse - leading to firing of Wilcox
Thank you Nick, your work is always so good. I am going to keep this summation for future reference as we fill out with additional players. The coaches have done impressive work in the portal. I am still buggin a bit on the OL, can't help it.
Another curious thing about 24/7 and On3: 24/7 says we have five 4 stars coming in, but On3 says we only have three. This has been the case for some days now.
They seem to each have their own methodology for assigning stars and points rankings
This is a fantastic article! Thank you for this.
Brilliant with a quibble...didn't we get punter Angus Davies, or did we whiff on him (see what I did there?)
Perhaps I can help kick-off a pun-laced comment thread? i love those.
Really good evaluation of where we are. You got the weak parts just right which were DB's and ILB's.