UNLV Football Defensive Preview

ESPN's SP+ rankings has UNLV as the #62 defense, facing off against the #59 offense in Cal. Of course, that was back when Cal had a quarterback.

You can find the offensive preview here.

Remember when Cal faced UNLV in 2022, and the star of the UNLV secondary was Nohl Williams? I don’t really have a point here, I just wanted to rub that in. He’s ours now.

UNLV runs a base 4-2-5 defense, with a heavy emphasis on bringing blitzes from anywhere. UNLV has a strong pass rush, so the addition of free rushers at the quarterback is often enough to force mistakes by the opposing offense (so it sure would be nice to have a quarterback adept at making quick reads and accurate on short throws, wouldn’t it). UNLV likes the zone blitz (and just zone coverage in general), and members of the secondary will often change responsibilities down to down, making it harder to get a beat on what the defense is doing. The secondary’s goal is to make the quarterback think he has one look, before dropping someone into an unexpected spot to either disrupt passing lanes or jump a route for an interception. UNLV’s rush defense is very good, and it is very difficult to run the ball up the middle against them—most teams find more success with runs to the outside, spreading the field horizontally. They have good gap integrity and aren’t often pushed from their spots. The secondary, while opportunistic, is a bit more boom-or-bust. They thrive on turnovers, but often have just as many or more busted coverages.

Why would you continue to bet into this board when you hold 61d7d? What kind of bluff is this?

They’re not above cheap tricks, either. Here the defensive end may have (mistakenly?) received the “fake injury” call from the sideline, as UNLV mistakenly thought they were about to be caught with 12 men on the field. After realizing that wasn’t the case, the defensive end was magically healed:

Wrong signal from the sideline from DE Antonio Doyle Jr - anticipating quick snap with 12 players

Let’s take a closer look at the positional breakdown.

Defensive line

The best unit on this team, in my view, is the defensive line. UNLV’s front seven compose a stout run defense, which currently ranks 19th in the FBS in rushing yards allowed. I don’t have the exact stats, but UNLV is particularly strong against interior runs. UNLV also brings a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the team is 11th in the FBS in sack (3.0 per game).

Defensive end Antonio Doyle Jr. leads the team in sacks. Doyle Jr. was originally a highly-touted recruit for Texas A&M and clearly has the physical tools for the next level. Doyle Jr. can win individual matchups, as seen here with a nice spin move:

DE Antonio Doyle Jr beats LT Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan with a spin move for a sack on QB Gevani McCoy

Here he shows a nice speed rush to the outside before knocking the RB off his spot for the game-winning sack:

DE Antonio Doyle Jr beats two blocks and gets the game-winning sack against Kansas

Here Doyle shows some nice hand-fighting as he rips away the block by the offensive lineman until he loses his balance:

DE Antonio Doyle Jr blasts through RT Grant Starck for a sack on QB Gevani McCoy

Doyle Jr. also showed the ability to drop back into coverage as he fooled the quarterback into a bad read:

DE Antonio Doyle Jr drops back into coverage and gets a pick-5 - negated by a weak roughing the passer call

Second on the team in sacks is the other defensive end, Fisher Camac. Although Camac did not have the same pedigree as Doyle Jr. (Camac was a 2-star recruit coming out of high school), he’s just as productive. The 6’7” Camac can use his ranginess to defeat blocks. Here he shows a nice speed chop move to get the sack:

DE Fisher Camac chops the hands to beat the block for a sack on QB Brayden Schager

And here he shows a nice swim move to beat his blocker:

DE Fisher Camac makes a nice swim move inside for the sack on QB Maddux Madsen

Camac also shows good awareness as he diagnoses the following play for a tackle for loss:

DE Fisher Camac gets a TFL on the jet sweep

Although Camac might be long and rangy, he does a good job of adjusting his pad level to take on the running back:

DE Fisher Camac stuffs RB Ashton Jeanty for a TFL

Camac became the starter after an injury to Jalen Dixon. I am unsure if Dixon will return for the bowl game, who also had a nice speed rush while being bigger and heavier than the other two:

DE Jalen Dixon forces a fumble with a hit on QB Mikey Keene

Also in the rotation is Keith Conley Jr.:

DE Keith Conley Jr gets pressure on QB Donovan Smith to force intentional grounding at the 1 yard line

On the interior of the line, DT Alexander Whitmore is the player to watch. Whitmore is a big reason why it is so difficult to run through the middle of the defense. Here Whitmore eats a double team to stuff the run:

DT Alexander Whitmore eats a double team and still gets off the block to stuff the interior run

The other starting defensive tackle is Tatuo Martinson. Martinson is not as sure of a tackler as Whitmore (nor is the redshirt freshman backup, DT Lucas Conti), but here Martinson does a good job of pursuing the quarterback and preventing him from escaping:

DT Tatuo Martinson reads the roll out by QB Kyle McCord and pressures him to throw it away

The defensive line is a solid unit that will generate pressure on the quarterback and limit the run game.

Linebackers

While the defensive line may be the best unit on the team, there’s no question who the star of this defense is: middle linebacker Jackson Woodard. Woodard is an Evan Weaver-like linebacker with great football instincts and an ability to always put himself in the play, and he may just find his way into the later rounds of the NFL Draft. Woodard is 6th in the FBS in tackles with 124, and is also tied for 2nd in the FBS among linebackers in interceptions. He just has a nose for the ball:

LB Jackson Woodard sniffs out the screen for a TFL

It’s hard to find singular clips that show this—short of showing all 124 of those tackles—since it’s really about how often he’s right on where to be on most plays:

LB Jackson Woodard anticipates the run and gets into the backfield for a TFL

And it’s not just Woodard crashing down on runs, he’s been adept at reading pass plays as well:

LB Jackson Woodard breaks up the pass for the 4th down stop - anticipates the late crosser

On the following play, even though Utah State had a numbers advantage to the left side of the field, Woodard’s anticipation disrupts the play and forces the quarterback to scramble (where they do not have a numbers advantage, for a loss):

LB Jackson Woodard helps blow up the play by disrupting the screen pass

Woodard also did well in man coverage, such as picking up the running back on a route out of the backfield:

LB Jackson Woodard has great coverage on RB LeQuint Allen for an INT

Woodard was able to place himself in places where the quarterback didn’t expect him to be, which allowed him to disrupt passing lanes and throws underneath:

LB Jackson Woodard quickly reads the throw and adjusts to knock it down

Here he reads the quarterback and plays the ball the whole way through:

LB Jackson Woodard reads the QB and jumps the route for an INT

And here Woodard again disrupts the passing lane, but catches it for an interception this time:

LB Jackson Woodard intercepts the pass at the line

If there was one knock against Woodard, it’s that he’s not the absolute surest tackler:

LB Jackson Woodard unable to stop RB LeQuint Allen on the game-winning TD

Although it’s an impossibly high standard to hold a linebacker to, I want to use Evan Weaver for comparison. Jackson Woodard has 124 tackles with 19 missed tackles, for a missed tackle rate of 14.4% (per PFF). Evan Weaver’s 2018 season with 155 tackles had 14 missed tackles for a missed tackle rate of 8.4%. So although Woodard has excellent instincts and he’s fairly close to Weaver, he has some room for improvement in finishing tackles— PFF puts him at 34th in run defense among linebackers in the FBS.

At the WLB position is Mani Powell, who took over for an injured Marsel McDuffie. McDuffie has shown the ability to get after the quarterback:

LB Mani Powell and DE Jalen Dixon get pressure for the sack by Powell

Another nice blitz by Powell:

LB Mani Powell gets through on the blitz for a sack on QB Mikey Keene

And here Powell wraps up RB Ashton Jeanty:

LB Mani Powell drops RB Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 4

The depth chart lists Marsel McDuffie as the starting WLB, but he’s only played a few games since his injury in the opener to Houston, so I don’t really have much of an opinion here. PFF rates him as a better tackler than Powell and a bit better in coverage, while Powell has the edge in the pass rush:

LB Marsel McDuffie cleans up the sack after the initial pressure by DT Alexander Whitmore and DE Antonio Doyle Jr

MLB Jackson Woodard’s backup is the freshman Charles Correa, who did have this nice play to strip the quarterback for a forced fumble:

LB Charles Correa forces a fumble on QB Spencer Petras recovered by LB Jackson Woodard

Jackson Woodard will be the focal point of this group, and it’s worth watching where he goes when he’s on the field.

Secondary

So we’ve established that the defensive front for UNLV does a good job of shutting down the run game and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. What happens next? An opportunistic secondary that likes to play a lot of zone coverage will get after the ball, hoping to capitalize on mistakes by the offense. The UNLV defense averages 1.7 takeaways per game, with a turnover margin of +1.0 per game, good for 8th in the FBS (Cal is 24th with +0.5). The biggest beneficiary of this defensive pressure is the center fielder, FS Jalen Catalon, who is 3rd in the FBS in interceptions with 5 (trailing #1 Nohl Williams with 7).

Before we get into the interceptions though, I have to point out that Catalon is an old school, enforcer type of safety:

S Jalen Catalon lands a big hit on the receiver

Although it should be noted that this style of play has led to missed tackles, as Catalon looks for the big hit over the sure tackle.

Catalon is an effective run-stopper:

S Jalen Catalon strips the ball from RB Anthony Hankerson for a fumble recovered by CB Cameron Oliver

Catalon has solid ball skills, such as this interception he makes on the blitz:

S Jalen Catalon tips the pass to himself on the blitz for a pick-6 TD

And again here, where he comes down with the deep ball:

S Jalen Catalon makes a great play on the ball for the INT

Catalon shows good instincts in zone, putting himself in a position to make plays on the ball:

S Jalen Catalon reads the QB's eyes for an INT

Conversely, however, he often struggles with cover skills when matched up in man coverage:

S Jalen Catalon not great in coverage

And again just a few plays later:

S Jalen Catalon gets beat again in coverage

I think Johnathan Baldwin, who typically plays the slot corner, has proven to be the most effective in coverage:

NB Johnathan Baldwin tight coverage

Baldwin has also shown some nice ball skills:

NB Johnathan Baldwin catches the deflection for an INT

And because the UNLV defense loves zone coverage, Baldwin has also been able to roam around and capitalize with interceptions:

NB Johnathan Baldwin reads the eyes of the QB for the INT

At corner is Cameron Oliver, who leads the defensive backs in lowest NFL Passer Rating Against. Here Oliver does a good job of tracking the ball for an interception:

CB Cameron Oliver plays the ball for the INT on QB Joshua Wood

However, Oliver isn’t particularly great in man either:

CB Cameron Oliver gets burnt for a 74 yard TD by WR Dekel Crowdus on the deep post - anticipated safety help

On the other side of the field is CB Tony Grimes, a former 5-star recruiting prospect on his redemption arc at UNLV (after previous stints at UNC and Texas A&M). Grimes is obviously the highest ceiling player of the secondary, with NFL-caliber physical tools, such as his speed and length. However, that physical talent hasn’t always translated onto the field, and he’s been inconsistent at times. He has shown some nice cover skills:

CB Tony Grimes nice coverage on the deep ball

However, I think his coverage can be overly physical and hoping that the refs don’t throw flags:

CB Tony Grimes coverage is a little too physical and he gets called for holding after he gets beat

It’s also a bit surprising that Grimes doesn’t have a single interception this year (he’s only had one in his college career, back in 2020 at UNC).

At the strong safety position is the Canadian Jett Elad, he primarily stands out in run support. Here he is with a nice blitz:

S Jett Elad on the blitz to get a 9 yard sack

The backup to Elad, Malik Chavis, wasn’t a whole lot better in coverage:

S Malik Chavis blown coverage

When watching plays in the secondary, it can often be hard to know who is responsible for what without knowing details of the defensive play call, etc. So instead, I am going to present a series of clips that show that the UNLV secondary often has issues communicating responsibilities among receivers. UNLV had a number of blown coverages, with multiple defenders covering the same receiver while another one goes uncovered, and so on. Particularly, UNLV was cooked a number of times when it came to covering switch releases.

Here’s an example where assignment rules end up muddied:

Secondary - CB Johnathan Baldwin and S Malik Chavis both go deep with WR Trent Walker for a busted coverage

The secondary as a unit hasn’t been particularly strong against the run. Here there are some poor angles taken to give up a big QB run:

Secondary - poor angles by the secondary to give up a 49 yard run by QB Maddux Madsen

Two defenders covering the same receiver again:

Secondary - poor communication between NB Johnathan Baldwin and S Jett Elad leads to a busted coverage for a 24 yard TD

And another common mistake throughout the season, a blown coverage on the switch release:

Secondary - poor communication between NB Johnathan Baldwin and S Jett Elad leads to a busted coverage for a 46 yard TD

In other words, the secondary is a boom-or-bust unit. Yes, they may play zone coverage and have defenders drop to locations where the quarterback is not expecting and hope for an interception (especially with the quarterback under pressure), but they also misplay routes and often give up explosive plays.

Special teams

I need a special section to cover the special teams unit here, because UNLV has had some of the most impactful special teams play in the country. UNLV hasn't had a punt return touchdown in 23 years, the longest drought of any FBS team, and no kickoff return touchdowns since 2011. Well, until Jai’Den Thomas this year:

RB Jai'Den Thomas 90 yard kickoff return TD

Of course, not every kickoff or punt return is going to be a touchdown, but with Jai’Den Thomas and Jacob De Jesus, UNLV starts their average drive in great field position, while also pinning their opponent to poor starting field position. It’s one of those things you don’t really notice when it happens once or twice, but it’s a cumulative advantage that definitely adds up over the course of a game or season, as the offense doesn’t have as far to drive while the opponent does.

I briefly alluded to this in the offensive preview, but WR Ricky White III is an absolute menace on special teams. Ricky White III has blocked 4 punts this year, more than anyone else in the FBS, which alone is more than all but 4 other teams in the FBS. And that doesn’t even count plays like this, where White got to the punter so fast that the punter was forced to pull it:

WR Ricky White nearly blocks another punt and S Jett Elad gets the TFL on the punter as a result

White just gets to the ball so fast:

WR Ricky White III blocks a punt against Utah Tech

Of course, White isn’t the only one immediately in the face of the punter. Here White’s blocked punt results in a touchdown:

WR Ricky Williams blocks the punt and recovered by LB Charles Correa in the endzone for a TD

And here White is the one to recover the blocked punt for a touchdown:

CB Rashod Tanner blocks the punt and WR Ricky White III returns the blocked punt for a TD

UNLV’s kicker is the freshman Caden Chittenden, who is 52/53 on PATs (the miss was a bad snap), and 24/28 from 49 yards or under (1/4 from 50+). So although UNLV has had some redzone struggles turning drives into touchdowns, they are usually able to reliably kick field goals.

Conclusion

I think that if Mendoza were playing, his strengths would hit UNLV’s defense right in their weaknesses. Without him, however, I have no idea what to expect from the Cal offense, and that really is the big question mark for this game. Will Cal be able to run the ball against a team that excels in run defense? UNLV held Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to his lowest yards/carry of the season during their regular season matchup (3.9 yards/carry; his season average was 7.3), so it’s a big ask even if Jaydn Ott is completely healthy again. Will the Cal quarterback—whoever it may be—be able to consistently make good reads and hold up against the blitz? I have a lot of faith in the Cal defense against the UNLV offense, but I can’t really say the same about the offense given the current state of the transfer portal and such. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team win an ugly game, but I would be shocked if this wasn’t a low-scoring, defensive struggle.

See you in LA.

Go Bears.

You can find my full clips here.