Great write up as usual, I have learned a great deal reading all the contributions from the Write for California crew this season. I think both teams are going to play lights out football. I agree with goldenone; I think Cal can win if the coaches figure out how to deal with the inevitable blitzes that USC will implement.
Jax gets the start and plays the whole game. If this is an audition for Lincoln Riley, then I think he's gonna want to see his future next year. There's no one around that owes any loyalty to Slovis, is there?
I don't mean to scare you, but rumor is that he's an animal on the gridiron, throwing words around like "darn" and "heck" around on the field all willy-nilly.
In the off-chance that Slovis does decide to suit up, I figure I can review him here in a comment so that I don't use up too much bandwidth in the article.
Slovis has only played one game without Drake London (at ASU, where Slovis and Dart alternated drives and neither QB could find a rhythm, which seems like an important factor for someone running an Air Raid offense), and so I feel like his stats are skewed a bit as a result. Slovis reminds me of every USC quarterback from the past 20 years that have flamed out in the NFL. He looks good now because of the talent advantage he has at wide receiver, an advantage that quickly dries up when you get to the NFL. More concerning for Slovis and his NFL prospects is that he seems to have taken a step back this year.
One thing I like about Slovis is that he has great command and understanding of the offense he's running, and so he's very good at timing routes with his receiver:
(QB Kedon Slovis throws a bullet to WR gary Bryant Jr. in the endzone)
Slovis has generally good accuracy (in that he'll throw "catchable" balls to his receivers, and he rarely misses by a lot), and enough accuracy and timing to hit a receiver in a window he knows is closing:
(QB Kedon Slovis does a nice job of avoiding pressure and finding an open TE Malcolm Epps for the first down)
Maybe it's a combination of running an Air Raid offense which rewards quick reads and decisive throws along with having an obviously top receiver, but I noticed plenty of times where Slovis doesn't properly work through his progressions and has likely made his decision pre-snap. Air Raid offenses are great when you can stretch the field and find space for your receivers in the middle of coverage, but Air Raid offenses often struggle when you get to the redzone, where you can't stretch the field vertically that much. USC only had one solution to this, which became extremely predictable (whether or not you could stop it was another story), and that was: just throw it up to Drake London.
Here's one such example. Slovis decides pre-snap that he's throwing it to London, and doesn't see the wide open tight end Jude Wolfe on the play:
(QB Kedon Slovis decides pre-snap to throw it to WR Drake London on 3rd and 5 but misses London and doesn't see wide open TE Jude Wolfe)
Here's a similar play, where Slovis has decided on his first read to WR Tahj Washington (note that London has just left the game with an injury on USC's previous TD, so Washington is running London's route here), and doesn't see the linebacker sitting there:
(QB Kedon Slovis throws up a prayer for London, who makes a late adjustment to the ball but can't come down with the catch)
This is not a well-placed throw, this is a "I'm just gonna chuck it downfield and my guy is probably gonna get it" throw. Similarly, the following is also not a very good throw, and London is double-covered in the endzone because everyone knows where Slovis wants to go with the ball in the redzone:
(QB Kedon Slovis way too much trust in WR Drake London, double-covered, and pass overthrown for near INT)
You think at some point USC could have used London as a decoy on plays like that to scheme someone else open. Of course, I'm not faulting Slovis for taking advantage of his NFL-caliber receiver, but he still has throws like this:
(QB Kedon Slovis misses on the jump ball to WR Drake London - needs to put it where only London can get it)
London has a huge catch radius and great body placement. You need to put that ball either higher or in a place where only London can get it. If you're going to throw at a covered receiver, you have to at least give him a chance to make a play on the ball.
Slovis only had one game without London, and his most frequent target in London's absence was Tahj Washington, who lines up as the outside receiver where London did (Dart typically favors receivers in the slot). This is likely due to the number of reps Slovis and London had together and where he found the most success. I haven't seen him with any real chemistry with the rest of his receivers, and after the missed time due to his injury, I can't imagine he has that much built up with anyone else. Slovis will more consistently hit the "Air Raid" throws to dink and dunk his way down the field, but USC still hasn't found a reliably redzone call-- although they are trying to lean more on the run game in these situations.
I hope we can stop them but the BYU game might indicate that the O-line is jelling at just the right time (and wrong time for Cal). The speed and power of 5-stars may eventually show through by the late 3rd quarter and 4th quarter where our defense will tire. It's on Garbers and the O to keep possession and score in the redzone. The tough thing to face as Cal fans is that we are terrible in handling blitzes, which was obvious in the Wazzu and UCLA games. So the book on beating Cal is to stop Garbers with pressure and blitzing. What's to prevent USC from doing the exact same thing as Azzinaro did last week?
I think it would be cool to do a season-in-review type post and see how various Cal players stacked up against the rest of the conference. For instance, I have some strong opinions on the USC linebackers, and I was able to check the PFF stats to see that I'm not exaggerating (I felt like they miss a ton of tackles, and I could use the PFF stats to confirm the exact number of missed tackles and see how unfavorably those numbers compare to the rest of the conference). Of course, I would want to highlight positive stats from Cal players-- such as Marqez Bimage being one of the best run stoppers in the FBS. I'll probably rewatch the entire season from a less-biased perspective in the off-season.
Anyway, my conference running back rankings:
1. Zach Charbonnet (UCLA)
2. Tavion Thomas (Utah)
3. Rachaad White (ASU)
4. Max Borghi (Wazzu)
5. Travis Dye (Oregon)
6. Christopher Brooks (Cal)
7. Jarek Broussard (Colorado)
8. BJ Baylor (OSU)
9. Sean McGrew (UW)
10. Keaontay Ingram (USC)
11. Austin Jones (Stanford)
12. Michael Wiley (Arizona)
Zach Charbonnet and Tavion Thomas are clearly NFL talents. Rachaad White, maybe-- he's in the mold of Eno Benjamin, a 7th round pick that actually made it to a roster (Cardinals). Max Borghi has excellent versatility and will probably be drafted higher than that, but I can't help but be a bit disappointed after how good he was his freshman/sophomore years-- he looked like the next Christian McCaffrey, but either injuries or something made me think he's lost a step later in his career. RBs don't get good mileage, unfortunately.
Travis Dye is too small for the NFL, but he's got excellent elusiveness to make a great college back. I love Christopher Brooks and his punishing style of runs, but he's been underutilized this year with the number of RBs Cal has in the backfield. Jarek Broussard is a great running back with a bad offensive line, and BJ Baylor is a decent running back with a great offensive line. Sean McGrew was a great change of pace back, but his productivity suffered when UW tried to make the undersized RB an every-down back. It's like they were trying to copy Oregon and Dye but ended up with the wrong answer.
Ingram, Jones, and Wiley are so-so, but haven't been given much of a chance to succeed running behind their lines.
Gotta have Baylor higher, no? He leads the conference in rushing attempts and yardage and is the only running back averaging over 100 yards per game. That he is doing it behind a bunch of 2 and 3-star linemen at OSU speaks for something, too. I am continually amazed that schools like Utah and Oregon State seem to find incredible running backs every year.
3-star offensive linemen or not, OSU does a fantastic job of blocking all around. The running back might get all the glory, but I believe it's the offensive line doing most of the heavy lifting there. I am aware that he's the conference rushing leader, but I don't put too much stock in stats. The same logic would tell you that CJ Verdell is the best running back in the conference in years prior, but it was the entire Oregon offensive line that was drafted. I had trouble evaluating Verdell because he was so frequently running through enormous holes.
That is interesting and a take I did not consider. So it means that Jonathan Smith at OSU and Kyle Whittingham at Utah are not necessarily finding great backs every year, but have a system - blocking schemes, effective play calling and player development with their O lines - that allows the backs they have to shine every year. That makes sense, because Utah's stud running back from last year died in an accidental shooting during the off season, and they plugged in new guys that did just as well. Verdell still pretty good, though, before he got injured this year.
Exactly. Ty Jordan absolutely was a fantastic back with a potential NFL future, but of course it doesn't hurt the stat line when you have offensive linemen clearing a path for you and wide receivers blocking well downfield, etc.
One thing that Utah/Whittingham has been great at, though, is developing talent. Utah does get mostly 3-star recruits, but he also sends a lot of those same 3-star players to the NFL. Whether he has an eye for talent, seeing potential in players, or just maximizing their abilities, whatever it is, it's working.
Similarly with OSU, I think they're maximizing the talent that they have. Some offensive lineman can be 6'7" 350 lbs (which is like an automatic 4- or 5-star rating depending on athleticism), and he'll get drooling looks from scouts, regardless of how well he does in college. Plenty of NFL teams will take an early flier on athletic freaks, even if they play poorly, don't understand leverage, etc., because they think they'll be able to fix them. Meanwhile, some unheralded 6'2" 275 lbs OL might not have elite size or strength, but he's well-coached, understands zone blocking assignments, works well with his team, correctly shifts to pick up the double team on the opposing team's top pass rusher, etc., and just generally plays well. Maximizing talent. That's where I think OSU is (coached by the former Cal OL coach, btw).
I don't know if you saw the Oregon-Utah game, but Utah pretty much just accepted that Kayvon Thibodeaux was going to wreck whoever he lined up against... and consequently called plays to run the ball in the opposite direction of Thibodeaux, or accepted that Thibodeaux would get into the backfield and throw a screen pass over him, etc., and basically made him a non-factor. It was just great coaching as well.
Yep....effective coaching so important. Whittingham should have been a primary target of every program like USC, LSU and Washington that needed a great head coach and leader. But he has made it clear for years that he is quite happy at Utah and will retire there. In my mind, he is one of the greatest coaches of the past 15 or so years in the country. And when you win.....they will come. I think Utah is going on 40 or so consecutive sell-outs. Sell-outs can happen at Cal, but it would require a really effective search process for a new head coach who is a fit in this environment. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe Wilcox was hired on the fly by an interim AD.
I'm not sure. He took a big leap forward this year, which is something scouts love to see. He's flown under the radar but I am sure he's earning those looks from NFL scouts now, and I wouldn't be surprised at a later round pick.
Great write up as usual, I have learned a great deal reading all the contributions from the Write for California crew this season. I think both teams are going to play lights out football. I agree with goldenone; I think Cal can win if the coaches figure out how to deal with the inevitable blitzes that USC will implement.
Jaxson looking real tuff with the eye-black. Wow.
Jax gets the start and plays the whole game. If this is an audition for Lincoln Riley, then I think he's gonna want to see his future next year. There's no one around that owes any loyalty to Slovis, is there?
I don't mean to scare you, but rumor is that he's an animal on the gridiron, throwing words around like "darn" and "heck" around on the field all willy-nilly.
Our guys are probably shaking with fear. They’ve never had to play a true badass like Jaxson.
We lose by 21. Why would I think otherwise? Jekyl and Hyde Bears. Very low expectations. Acceptance.
-- Kedon Slovis --
In the off-chance that Slovis does decide to suit up, I figure I can review him here in a comment so that I don't use up too much bandwidth in the article.
Slovis has only played one game without Drake London (at ASU, where Slovis and Dart alternated drives and neither QB could find a rhythm, which seems like an important factor for someone running an Air Raid offense), and so I feel like his stats are skewed a bit as a result. Slovis reminds me of every USC quarterback from the past 20 years that have flamed out in the NFL. He looks good now because of the talent advantage he has at wide receiver, an advantage that quickly dries up when you get to the NFL. More concerning for Slovis and his NFL prospects is that he seems to have taken a step back this year.
One thing I like about Slovis is that he has great command and understanding of the offense he's running, and so he's very good at timing routes with his receiver:
https://i.imgur.com/8PJV50z.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis good timing on the back shoulder throw to WR Drake London)
Slovis doesn't have your prototypical NFL arm strength, but he certainly has enough for what USC is trying to do:
https://i.imgur.com/rpDGFQF.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis throws a bullet to WR gary Bryant Jr. in the endzone)
Slovis has generally good accuracy (in that he'll throw "catchable" balls to his receivers, and he rarely misses by a lot), and enough accuracy and timing to hit a receiver in a window he knows is closing:
https://i.imgur.com/ebv5kvV.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis throws in in a small window as the safety is closing in to TE Erik Krommenhoek for the TD)
However, he sometimes is overconfident in his ability to throw into a tight window:
https://i.imgur.com/kVICg3q.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis forces it into too tight of a window -- he needs to throw it outside his receiver, not inside. Interception by ASU LB Kyle Soelle)
I won't hold this one against him too much for forcing this throw because it was on 4th down, but this receiver was not open:
https://i.imgur.com/gEW336M.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis makes a poor read forcing it on 4th down, plus late hit out of bounds by WR Drake London for no reason)
Slovis does a good job of sensing pressure and keeping his eyes downfield to make the play:
https://i.imgur.com/jXvuIqL.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis does a nice job of avoiding pressure and finding an open TE Malcolm Epps for the first down)
Maybe it's a combination of running an Air Raid offense which rewards quick reads and decisive throws along with having an obviously top receiver, but I noticed plenty of times where Slovis doesn't properly work through his progressions and has likely made his decision pre-snap. Air Raid offenses are great when you can stretch the field and find space for your receivers in the middle of coverage, but Air Raid offenses often struggle when you get to the redzone, where you can't stretch the field vertically that much. USC only had one solution to this, which became extremely predictable (whether or not you could stop it was another story), and that was: just throw it up to Drake London.
Here's one such example. Slovis decides pre-snap that he's throwing it to London, and doesn't see the wide open tight end Jude Wolfe on the play:
https://i.imgur.com/2lfdR6V.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis decides pre-snap to throw it to WR Drake London on 3rd and 5 but misses London and doesn't see wide open TE Jude Wolfe)
Here's a similar play, where Slovis has decided on his first read to WR Tahj Washington (note that London has just left the game with an injury on USC's previous TD, so Washington is running London's route here), and doesn't see the linebacker sitting there:
https://i.imgur.com/Or0yVFJ.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis locked onto first read and doesn't see LB Anthony Pandy for the pick-6)
The biggest reason I'm unimpressed with Slovis and don't really buy his NFL Draft hype is how often he makes throws like this:
https://i.imgur.com/eyz6fDl.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis throws up a prayer for London, who makes a late adjustment to the ball but can't come down with the catch)
This is not a well-placed throw, this is a "I'm just gonna chuck it downfield and my guy is probably gonna get it" throw. Similarly, the following is also not a very good throw, and London is double-covered in the endzone because everyone knows where Slovis wants to go with the ball in the redzone:
https://i.imgur.com/ROBi0XK.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis way too much trust in WR Drake London, double-covered, and pass overthrown for near INT)
You think at some point USC could have used London as a decoy on plays like that to scheme someone else open. Of course, I'm not faulting Slovis for taking advantage of his NFL-caliber receiver, but he still has throws like this:
https://i.imgur.com/kKuIUWB.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis misses on the jump ball to WR Drake London - needs to put it where only London can get it)
London has a huge catch radius and great body placement. You need to put that ball either higher or in a place where only London can get it. If you're going to throw at a covered receiver, you have to at least give him a chance to make a play on the ball.
Slovis only had one game without London, and his most frequent target in London's absence was Tahj Washington, who lines up as the outside receiver where London did (Dart typically favors receivers in the slot). This is likely due to the number of reps Slovis and London had together and where he found the most success. I haven't seen him with any real chemistry with the rest of his receivers, and after the missed time due to his injury, I can't imagine he has that much built up with anyone else. Slovis will more consistently hit the "Air Raid" throws to dink and dunk his way down the field, but USC still hasn't found a reliably redzone call-- although they are trying to lean more on the run game in these situations.
I hope we can stop them but the BYU game might indicate that the O-line is jelling at just the right time (and wrong time for Cal). The speed and power of 5-stars may eventually show through by the late 3rd quarter and 4th quarter where our defense will tire. It's on Garbers and the O to keep possession and score in the redzone. The tough thing to face as Cal fans is that we are terrible in handling blitzes, which was obvious in the Wazzu and UCLA games. So the book on beating Cal is to stop Garbers with pressure and blitzing. What's to prevent USC from doing the exact same thing as Azzinaro did last week?
"What's to prevent USC from doing the exact same thing as Azzinaro did last week?"
Well, worse linebackers for one thing. But yes, definitely expect them to dial up their own pressures, typically a blitz from the nickelback.
Charbonnet was the one guy I’ve seen this year who looks like a 15-20 carry a game guy in the NFL.
I think it would be cool to do a season-in-review type post and see how various Cal players stacked up against the rest of the conference. For instance, I have some strong opinions on the USC linebackers, and I was able to check the PFF stats to see that I'm not exaggerating (I felt like they miss a ton of tackles, and I could use the PFF stats to confirm the exact number of missed tackles and see how unfavorably those numbers compare to the rest of the conference). Of course, I would want to highlight positive stats from Cal players-- such as Marqez Bimage being one of the best run stoppers in the FBS. I'll probably rewatch the entire season from a less-biased perspective in the off-season.
Anyway, my conference running back rankings:
1. Zach Charbonnet (UCLA)
2. Tavion Thomas (Utah)
3. Rachaad White (ASU)
4. Max Borghi (Wazzu)
5. Travis Dye (Oregon)
6. Christopher Brooks (Cal)
7. Jarek Broussard (Colorado)
8. BJ Baylor (OSU)
9. Sean McGrew (UW)
10. Keaontay Ingram (USC)
11. Austin Jones (Stanford)
12. Michael Wiley (Arizona)
Zach Charbonnet and Tavion Thomas are clearly NFL talents. Rachaad White, maybe-- he's in the mold of Eno Benjamin, a 7th round pick that actually made it to a roster (Cardinals). Max Borghi has excellent versatility and will probably be drafted higher than that, but I can't help but be a bit disappointed after how good he was his freshman/sophomore years-- he looked like the next Christian McCaffrey, but either injuries or something made me think he's lost a step later in his career. RBs don't get good mileage, unfortunately.
Travis Dye is too small for the NFL, but he's got excellent elusiveness to make a great college back. I love Christopher Brooks and his punishing style of runs, but he's been underutilized this year with the number of RBs Cal has in the backfield. Jarek Broussard is a great running back with a bad offensive line, and BJ Baylor is a decent running back with a great offensive line. Sean McGrew was a great change of pace back, but his productivity suffered when UW tried to make the undersized RB an every-down back. It's like they were trying to copy Oregon and Dye but ended up with the wrong answer.
Ingram, Jones, and Wiley are so-so, but haven't been given much of a chance to succeed running behind their lines.
Gotta have Baylor higher, no? He leads the conference in rushing attempts and yardage and is the only running back averaging over 100 yards per game. That he is doing it behind a bunch of 2 and 3-star linemen at OSU speaks for something, too. I am continually amazed that schools like Utah and Oregon State seem to find incredible running backs every year.
3-star offensive linemen or not, OSU does a fantastic job of blocking all around. The running back might get all the glory, but I believe it's the offensive line doing most of the heavy lifting there. I am aware that he's the conference rushing leader, but I don't put too much stock in stats. The same logic would tell you that CJ Verdell is the best running back in the conference in years prior, but it was the entire Oregon offensive line that was drafted. I had trouble evaluating Verdell because he was so frequently running through enormous holes.
That is interesting and a take I did not consider. So it means that Jonathan Smith at OSU and Kyle Whittingham at Utah are not necessarily finding great backs every year, but have a system - blocking schemes, effective play calling and player development with their O lines - that allows the backs they have to shine every year. That makes sense, because Utah's stud running back from last year died in an accidental shooting during the off season, and they plugged in new guys that did just as well. Verdell still pretty good, though, before he got injured this year.
Exactly. Ty Jordan absolutely was a fantastic back with a potential NFL future, but of course it doesn't hurt the stat line when you have offensive linemen clearing a path for you and wide receivers blocking well downfield, etc.
One thing that Utah/Whittingham has been great at, though, is developing talent. Utah does get mostly 3-star recruits, but he also sends a lot of those same 3-star players to the NFL. Whether he has an eye for talent, seeing potential in players, or just maximizing their abilities, whatever it is, it's working.
Similarly with OSU, I think they're maximizing the talent that they have. Some offensive lineman can be 6'7" 350 lbs (which is like an automatic 4- or 5-star rating depending on athleticism), and he'll get drooling looks from scouts, regardless of how well he does in college. Plenty of NFL teams will take an early flier on athletic freaks, even if they play poorly, don't understand leverage, etc., because they think they'll be able to fix them. Meanwhile, some unheralded 6'2" 275 lbs OL might not have elite size or strength, but he's well-coached, understands zone blocking assignments, works well with his team, correctly shifts to pick up the double team on the opposing team's top pass rusher, etc., and just generally plays well. Maximizing talent. That's where I think OSU is (coached by the former Cal OL coach, btw).
I don't know if you saw the Oregon-Utah game, but Utah pretty much just accepted that Kayvon Thibodeaux was going to wreck whoever he lined up against... and consequently called plays to run the ball in the opposite direction of Thibodeaux, or accepted that Thibodeaux would get into the backfield and throw a screen pass over him, etc., and basically made him a non-factor. It was just great coaching as well.
Yep....effective coaching so important. Whittingham should have been a primary target of every program like USC, LSU and Washington that needed a great head coach and leader. But he has made it clear for years that he is quite happy at Utah and will retire there. In my mind, he is one of the greatest coaches of the past 15 or so years in the country. And when you win.....they will come. I think Utah is going on 40 or so consecutive sell-outs. Sell-outs can happen at Cal, but it would require a really effective search process for a new head coach who is a fit in this environment. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe Wilcox was hired on the fly by an interim AD.
I'm not sure. He took a big leap forward this year, which is something scouts love to see. He's flown under the radar but I am sure he's earning those looks from NFL scouts now, and I wouldn't be surprised at a later round pick.