In the off-chance that Slovis does decide to suit up, I figure I can review him here in a comment so that I don't use up too much bandwidth in the article.
Slovis has only played one game without Drake London (at ASU, where Slovis and Dart alternated drives and neither QB could find a rhythm, which seems like an important factor for someone running an Air Raid offense), and so I feel like his stats are skewed a bit as a result. Slovis reminds me of every USC quarterback from the past 20 years that have flamed out in the NFL. He looks good now because of the talent advantage he has at wide receiver, an advantage that quickly dries up when you get to the NFL. More concerning for Slovis and his NFL prospects is that he seems to have taken a step back this year.
One thing I like about Slovis is that he has great command and understanding of the offense he's running, and so he's very good at timing routes with his receiver:
(QB Kedon Slovis throws a bullet to WR gary Bryant Jr. in the endzone)
Slovis has generally good accuracy (in that he'll throw "catchable" balls to his receivers, and he rarely misses by a lot), and enough accuracy and timing to hit a receiver in a window he knows is closing:
(QB Kedon Slovis does a nice job of avoiding pressure and finding an open TE Malcolm Epps for the first down)
Maybe it's a combination of running an Air Raid offense which rewards quick reads and decisive throws along with having an obviously top receiver, but I noticed plenty of times where Slovis doesn't properly work through his progressions and has likely made his decision pre-snap. Air Raid offenses are great when you can stretch the field and find space for your receivers in the middle of coverage, but Air Raid offenses often struggle when you get to the redzone, where you can't stretch the field vertically that much. USC only had one solution to this, which became extremely predictable (whether or not you could stop it was another story), and that was: just throw it up to Drake London.
Here's one such example. Slovis decides pre-snap that he's throwing it to London, and doesn't see the wide open tight end Jude Wolfe on the play:
(QB Kedon Slovis decides pre-snap to throw it to WR Drake London on 3rd and 5 but misses London and doesn't see wide open TE Jude Wolfe)
Here's a similar play, where Slovis has decided on his first read to WR Tahj Washington (note that London has just left the game with an injury on USC's previous TD, so Washington is running London's route here), and doesn't see the linebacker sitting there:
(QB Kedon Slovis throws up a prayer for London, who makes a late adjustment to the ball but can't come down with the catch)
This is not a well-placed throw, this is a "I'm just gonna chuck it downfield and my guy is probably gonna get it" throw. Similarly, the following is also not a very good throw, and London is double-covered in the endzone because everyone knows where Slovis wants to go with the ball in the redzone:
(QB Kedon Slovis way too much trust in WR Drake London, double-covered, and pass overthrown for near INT)
You think at some point USC could have used London as a decoy on plays like that to scheme someone else open. Of course, I'm not faulting Slovis for taking advantage of his NFL-caliber receiver, but he still has throws like this:
(QB Kedon Slovis misses on the jump ball to WR Drake London - needs to put it where only London can get it)
London has a huge catch radius and great body placement. You need to put that ball either higher or in a place where only London can get it. If you're going to throw at a covered receiver, you have to at least give him a chance to make a play on the ball.
Slovis only had one game without London, and his most frequent target in London's absence was Tahj Washington, who lines up as the outside receiver where London did (Dart typically favors receivers in the slot). This is likely due to the number of reps Slovis and London had together and where he found the most success. I haven't seen him with any real chemistry with the rest of his receivers, and after the missed time due to his injury, I can't imagine he has that much built up with anyone else. Slovis will more consistently hit the "Air Raid" throws to dink and dunk his way down the field, but USC still hasn't found a reliably redzone call-- although they are trying to lean more on the run game in these situations.
Great write up as usual, I have learned a great deal reading all the contributions from the Write for California crew this season. I think both teams are going to play lights out football. I agree with goldenone; I think Cal can win if the coaches figure out how to deal with the inevitable blitzes that USC will implement.
I hope we can stop them but the BYU game might indicate that the O-line is jelling at just the right time (and wrong time for Cal). The speed and power of 5-stars may eventually show through by the late 3rd quarter and 4th quarter where our defense will tire. It's on Garbers and the O to keep possession and score in the redzone. The tough thing to face as Cal fans is that we are terrible in handling blitzes, which was obvious in the Wazzu and UCLA games. So the book on beating Cal is to stop Garbers with pressure and blitzing. What's to prevent USC from doing the exact same thing as Azzinaro did last week?
-- Kedon Slovis --
In the off-chance that Slovis does decide to suit up, I figure I can review him here in a comment so that I don't use up too much bandwidth in the article.
Slovis has only played one game without Drake London (at ASU, where Slovis and Dart alternated drives and neither QB could find a rhythm, which seems like an important factor for someone running an Air Raid offense), and so I feel like his stats are skewed a bit as a result. Slovis reminds me of every USC quarterback from the past 20 years that have flamed out in the NFL. He looks good now because of the talent advantage he has at wide receiver, an advantage that quickly dries up when you get to the NFL. More concerning for Slovis and his NFL prospects is that he seems to have taken a step back this year.
One thing I like about Slovis is that he has great command and understanding of the offense he's running, and so he's very good at timing routes with his receiver:
https://i.imgur.com/8PJV50z.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis good timing on the back shoulder throw to WR Drake London)
Slovis doesn't have your prototypical NFL arm strength, but he certainly has enough for what USC is trying to do:
https://i.imgur.com/rpDGFQF.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis throws a bullet to WR gary Bryant Jr. in the endzone)
Slovis has generally good accuracy (in that he'll throw "catchable" balls to his receivers, and he rarely misses by a lot), and enough accuracy and timing to hit a receiver in a window he knows is closing:
https://i.imgur.com/ebv5kvV.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis throws in in a small window as the safety is closing in to TE Erik Krommenhoek for the TD)
However, he sometimes is overconfident in his ability to throw into a tight window:
https://i.imgur.com/kVICg3q.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis forces it into too tight of a window -- he needs to throw it outside his receiver, not inside. Interception by ASU LB Kyle Soelle)
I won't hold this one against him too much for forcing this throw because it was on 4th down, but this receiver was not open:
https://i.imgur.com/gEW336M.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis makes a poor read forcing it on 4th down, plus late hit out of bounds by WR Drake London for no reason)
Slovis does a good job of sensing pressure and keeping his eyes downfield to make the play:
https://i.imgur.com/jXvuIqL.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis does a nice job of avoiding pressure and finding an open TE Malcolm Epps for the first down)
Maybe it's a combination of running an Air Raid offense which rewards quick reads and decisive throws along with having an obviously top receiver, but I noticed plenty of times where Slovis doesn't properly work through his progressions and has likely made his decision pre-snap. Air Raid offenses are great when you can stretch the field and find space for your receivers in the middle of coverage, but Air Raid offenses often struggle when you get to the redzone, where you can't stretch the field vertically that much. USC only had one solution to this, which became extremely predictable (whether or not you could stop it was another story), and that was: just throw it up to Drake London.
Here's one such example. Slovis decides pre-snap that he's throwing it to London, and doesn't see the wide open tight end Jude Wolfe on the play:
https://i.imgur.com/2lfdR6V.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis decides pre-snap to throw it to WR Drake London on 3rd and 5 but misses London and doesn't see wide open TE Jude Wolfe)
Here's a similar play, where Slovis has decided on his first read to WR Tahj Washington (note that London has just left the game with an injury on USC's previous TD, so Washington is running London's route here), and doesn't see the linebacker sitting there:
https://i.imgur.com/Or0yVFJ.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis locked onto first read and doesn't see LB Anthony Pandy for the pick-6)
The biggest reason I'm unimpressed with Slovis and don't really buy his NFL Draft hype is how often he makes throws like this:
https://i.imgur.com/eyz6fDl.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis throws up a prayer for London, who makes a late adjustment to the ball but can't come down with the catch)
This is not a well-placed throw, this is a "I'm just gonna chuck it downfield and my guy is probably gonna get it" throw. Similarly, the following is also not a very good throw, and London is double-covered in the endzone because everyone knows where Slovis wants to go with the ball in the redzone:
https://i.imgur.com/ROBi0XK.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis way too much trust in WR Drake London, double-covered, and pass overthrown for near INT)
You think at some point USC could have used London as a decoy on plays like that to scheme someone else open. Of course, I'm not faulting Slovis for taking advantage of his NFL-caliber receiver, but he still has throws like this:
https://i.imgur.com/kKuIUWB.mp4
(QB Kedon Slovis misses on the jump ball to WR Drake London - needs to put it where only London can get it)
London has a huge catch radius and great body placement. You need to put that ball either higher or in a place where only London can get it. If you're going to throw at a covered receiver, you have to at least give him a chance to make a play on the ball.
Slovis only had one game without London, and his most frequent target in London's absence was Tahj Washington, who lines up as the outside receiver where London did (Dart typically favors receivers in the slot). This is likely due to the number of reps Slovis and London had together and where he found the most success. I haven't seen him with any real chemistry with the rest of his receivers, and after the missed time due to his injury, I can't imagine he has that much built up with anyone else. Slovis will more consistently hit the "Air Raid" throws to dink and dunk his way down the field, but USC still hasn't found a reliably redzone call-- although they are trying to lean more on the run game in these situations.
Great write up as usual, I have learned a great deal reading all the contributions from the Write for California crew this season. I think both teams are going to play lights out football. I agree with goldenone; I think Cal can win if the coaches figure out how to deal with the inevitable blitzes that USC will implement.
We lose by 21. Why would I think otherwise? Jekyl and Hyde Bears. Very low expectations. Acceptance.
Jaxson looking real tuff with the eye-black. Wow.
I hope we can stop them but the BYU game might indicate that the O-line is jelling at just the right time (and wrong time for Cal). The speed and power of 5-stars may eventually show through by the late 3rd quarter and 4th quarter where our defense will tire. It's on Garbers and the O to keep possession and score in the redzone. The tough thing to face as Cal fans is that we are terrible in handling blitzes, which was obvious in the Wazzu and UCLA games. So the book on beating Cal is to stop Garbers with pressure and blitzing. What's to prevent USC from doing the exact same thing as Azzinaro did last week?