37 Comments

man, if I need predictions I will just use online magic 8 ball

https://magic8ball.toolhub.live/

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I'll say 6-6. We're losing an awful lot of production from last year and it takes time to sort things out.

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10-3. A victory in the Alamo Bowl over Oklahoma.

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Pac-12 Media Day was mostly coachspeak, but interesting nonetheless.

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I made a point to watch/listen to about all of the coaches. Sans all of Wilcox which I will finish today as the early youtube video of him seemed like it was from a phone in the audience. He seemed a bit forlorn up there though that symptomatic of our after-though status.

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12-0.

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Jul 30, 2022Liked by Avinash Kunnath, Rob Hwang

I attended the CAL event tonight in downtown LA where AD Knowlton, Head Football Coach Justin Wilcox, Head Basketball Coach Mark Fox, and Head Golf Coach Mark Chun attended.

Starting with Mark Chun he said they have a solid team and there is a new Collin Morikawa in his group. All good news. Coach Fox was great, humble, funny as hell and very solid considering the difficult job he has.

I arrived at the event a half hour early and saw Coach Wilcox so I beelined straight over to him with one other CAL alum. We had his undivided attention for probably an hour as a couple more alums joined us, but the group never got larger than 5 people. It was an opportunity I never would have thought would come my way. I got to talk football, not only that, CAL football for an hour with Coach W. I will give an overview of our conversation and I will give some detail on what he shared later with the entire crowd when he had the microphone, but I won’t share details that he shared just with our group because we aren’t press and I don’t know if we were off the record or not.

My impression of Coach Wilcox: he’s a great dude. He was confident, comfortable and you could tell that he really believes that CAL Football is on the verge of something special; it’s not talk, he truly believes it. He was definitely just one of the guys in the conversation and he talked with us the same way you all would talk with your buddies over a beer watching football. It was straight forward, humorous at times, laced with excellent observations and a few expletives (never saw this side of Coach before).

I had a chance to talk with him about a lot of stuff. We talked about metrics that measure improvement, aside from the W’s, even though he said in the end it was the W’s that counted. He says the team has more talent now than since he came to CAL. Without telling you specifically what I heard, it is clear the players who did not come back for a final year was because they would have been challenged by new players that had more talent. That’s the best way to say it. He talked about how they know that certain player must be targets for so many touches of the ball every game and that some of the guys who left, while they were excellent football players, that we now had new elite players who were going to be the targets of those touches. We talked about last season, and he had three big metrics that need to change in order to go from a 6 win team to a 10 win team: 1. We need to make teams pay when they line up in zero/press defensive coverage and bring the entire defense. If you can’t make them pay, then you can’t keep them honest. We talked about UNR, TCU, WASU and UCLA games where they shut down our run game and Chase couldn’t convert in the passing game. He said we need to make guys miss (tackles) or complete the longer ball. He says we have the talent to do that now. (I’ll get to the players in a bit). 2. We need to make stops on 3rd down defensively. He said that last year our defense had as many stops on 3rd and 7+ yards as the had on third and 3. And finally he said the third thing we need to improve upon is red zone scoring. He also mentioned that they had to change play calling so they would not put themselves in a situation where the opponent could score late in the first half and early in the first half. He specifically mentioned games where we lost by a single score where not putting ourselves in this position might have changed the outcome of the game.

He said as of today Jack Plummer is the starter at QB, but that Kyle Milner is solid and needs to be coached up to be ready. He said a twisted ankle could mean Kyle becomes the starter. He said Plummer has surprised them and is better than advertised and while he may not have the legs of Garbers, he is very good on the reads and the passes. They might even let him air it out more often. I asked about Musgrave’s pro playbook and if Plummer had time to learn it and get reps. To my surprise Coach W said Musgrave’s playbook is no bigger than Beau Baldwins and that Plummer has assimilated it. They will change formations and looks, but they can do that during weekly installs as long as the concepts are in place. This is great news.

He is very excited about the receiving corp. He says CAL has a number of ‘playmakers’ that can actually ‘make things happen’. Again, good news. I’m not going to mention any names

He is excited at the RB room. He says Damien Moore is really deceptive and just finds ways to slither and gain 5, 6 or 7 yards when there is not much there. He said Jaden Ott is special and has a burst of speed which has been missing since Wilcox has been at CAL. He said if Ott continues the way he played in Spring, he will get touches this Fall, and it sounded like more than a few.

We talked about my favorite subject: O-Line. We talked about talent, the problems from last year and the need to establish a reliable consistent run game. First, there is no doubt about our talent being a big upgrade from last year. He said Coleman is probably a better guard than tackle but will probably play left tackle. He also said Coleman is a legit pro prospect, maybe not early round but he will play on Sundays. ‘Cindo’ is solid at center. I won’t mention the other guys he talked about because I think it all has to be resolved in Fall Camp, but we have the horses to get the job done and the competition will bring out the best. I talked with him about pass protection issues and schemes and to my surprise not only did he really know the details but he actually told me they had looked at their schemes to try and simplify them. We talked about relationship of tackles to edge rushers, set up (I told him I hate the shuffle step and he smiled in agreement). We talked about positioning, angles and more. I was genuinely impressed with his knowledge of the inner workings of the o-line and the thought processes regarding adjustments. It’s all good stuff and along with the talent should translate into more success.

He said our D-Line and inside linebackers were stout and plugs…my words but he feels real good about these two groups. Our edges and OLB are not a concern but as of right now we don’t have a guy that he feels has shown to be our next Cameron Goode, although there are a few guys who have shown some flashes that may demonstrate Goode’s ability during Fall Camp.

The secondary is solid but he says they need one guy to step up and be a great cover guy.

So that’s my report. I’ll close by saying I also had the opportunity to chat with AD Knowlton. I won’t go into a lot of detail here, but I will say I came away very impressed with him. I’ve always thought well of him but after he told me what he and his staff went through to keep all our sports programs alive when he first arrived with a $110m budget but $165m in expenses, I was incredibly grateful that we have him. He says Chancellor Christ is all in and he greatly appreciates her support. Lastly, he says regarding CAL’s future Conference moves, he has 10 permutations he is constantly working with regarding all the Conference realignments. He said it was like being in the military again. He had some great nuggets as well, but I won’t share them here. I’ll conclude that if his naysayers actually knew what he was doing I think they would have an entirely different and good opinion of him.

I’m posting this on Write for California and Cal Rivals

Roll on you Bears!

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Thanks Rug, awesome insight.

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Wow that's alot of good stuff. Thanks Rugbear. I'm sure they are all great people and experts at what they do. They just now have to really prove it with on field results.

"Without telling you specifically what I heard, it is clear the players who did not come back for a final year was because they would have been challenged by new players that had more talent."

I do feel that's TMI. I don't know that's something Wilcox wants it shared, but I'm sure you know better than I do since you were the one who heard it.

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That's why I did not name names or go into specifics, as well as for the current roster. Playmakers are going to get the most touches, as they should. Btw, Wilcox did not say what I said about the guys who left, he just gave an honest assessment about the different personnel and it was pretty clear that when you have elite athletes you want them on the field getting touches. I'll let you figure out who they are.

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Hi Bob, I really appreciate your support and enthusiasm, but I wrote a reply on this subject to you just below. In the world of fan discussions this is all good. In the world of coaching, critiquing another coach publicly is frowned upon and I do not wish to disrespect any of our coaches. The last thing they need or want is someone from the outside looking over their shoulders or joining a meeting to observe and comment; it essentially undermines them and I have no desire to do that. My comments are for this group. They are educated assumptions because I am NOT in the film room with the players and the coaches listening to their dialogue. My goal is to help everyone here understand the inner workings and complexities of the game and what coaches go through so you can have a richer experience.

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Hi Bob, I would actually appreciate it if you don't forward my stuff. First of all coaches don't read any of this stuff; it's a distraction. Secondly there is an etiquette amongst coaches that you don't critique another coach, whether it's good or bad. I am no longer a coach, I am now a fan. I have learned a lot from playing the game and even more from the years I coached, but in fairness Coach W and his staff have years of experience and know far more than me. Secondly, what I see from watching tape may be very different from what they see, and I am not in the room with them to hear them talk about it. I make educated assumptions, but they still are assumptions. In the end, they don't need a distraction from someone like me. Angus does not need a guy like me sitting in a meeting looking over his shoulder. Seriously, those coaches have more knowledge in their little fingers than I do, but I have more than the average fan and I try and share my knowledge to provide insights into the game and our team. I'll conclude by saying sending my stuff to Knowlton would be like sending a nurse's suggestion on heart surgery to a cardiac surgeon; it's a distraction they don't need. I really do appreciate your support and enthusiasm, but let's keep our stuff on these pages. Thanks and Go Bears!

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9 - 3.

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Only?

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Jul 29, 2022·edited Jul 29, 2022

I think this is more of a 6-7 win year, and then next year we can build on the offense and go to 7-8 wins. Assuming Plummer/Milner are acceptable P5 QBs.

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I'll post my prediction in mid December. Until then the document remains in the safe deposit box after I wrote them down last night.

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The success of our season rests on two things in my mind. First, with our WR corps we should be able to complete quick, short passes and count on them breaking away from time to time, as opposed to risking sacks when Plummer drops back into the pocket. We just don't have the OLine for that, but that then may give us openings for runs, etc. On defense, we need turnovers with return yards, not just stops. Set up our offense for shorter, higher probability drives, etc. Fingers crossed. Go Bears!

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Davis - win

unlv - win

ND - loss (but please be competitive)

AZ - must win (cal should be favored)

WSU - must win (but tossup)

CO - must win (cal should be favored)

UW - tossup (our solid defense gives new coach/system for them some fits)

UO - loss (too much talent, but please be competitive)

SC - loss (see above)

OSU - must win (but tossup)

furd - must win (cal should be favored)

u¢ lo$ angele$ = tossup (I hate this as last game of year)

Upside 9-3, Downside 4-8

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v Davis - win but ugly in a close game...a total dogfight unfortunately...Cal by 4.

v UNLV - win by 10

@ ND - lose by 14

v U of A - win by 3 but sweat it out bc f-ing Arizona

@ Wazzu - lose by 7. Incarnate Word transfer QB Cameron Ward in a wide-open O is scary good.

@ Colorado - lose by 10 bc of Boulder altitude...ugliest game of the year.

v UW - win by 10 - Bears play their best game of the year.

v UO - win by 4. We play Ducks tough and it’s too soon for Lanning to be elite in Eugene.

@SC - lose by 20. Not competitive offensively.

@ Or State - lose by 7...O hibernates. Also an ugly game by O-line.

v. Stanford - win by 8.

v. UCLA - lose by 10...no answer for DTR & Charbonnet, again.

6-6...possible Sun Bowl bid w/ Furd & Washington in mix...4 corner schools & WA’ are either not bowl eligible (ASU, U of A, Colorado) or too good (Utah, Wazzu).

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The offense works like it is supposed to. We are all happily surprised. Defense is awesome once again.

8-4

It's too hot and I have been drinking.

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Need Plummer to bring some intra-Indiana hate from his Purdue days to South Bend.

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Jul 29, 2022·edited Jul 29, 2022Liked by Rob Hwang

It seems like we can't get out of the 5-7 or 7-5 track.

Realistically I have to accept 5-7 as a more likely outcome than 7-5 due to the mystery of the offense and in general, lack of success on the O over the past few years outside of Chase scrambles and improvisation, which doth not an offensive system make.

EDIT: I promise I'll get the Dokkaebier IPA prior to the Notre Dame game (4 of the pint-size cans) and will have 1 or 2 before kick-off. That is rather early. After the Bears W I will have another (or two).

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Let's say the defense is a known quantity and will be pretty good.

My main theme this season is that it's time for the Musgrave experiment to get us 30/game or it's the door. Our coaching brain trust must know that in the current environment you have to have an offensive system that you can plug players into. No waiting a year for things to gel.

Musgrave has had enough time to adjust to the college game, and has seen the meager offensive stats that his only (2021) full-season effort produced, which would have been downright embarrassing had Garbers not scrambled our way to first downs as often as he did. Our offense this season cannot be 'protect the ball and hope the QB bails us out on 3rd down'. This season will be make or break for Musgrave.

If we don't have the horses on the line and at the skill positions, no system will matter. But if our young talent steps up and is put in a position to succeed, we might just end up with more wins than losses and a nice upset. That's what success looks like for the 2022 season.

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Jul 29, 2022·edited Jul 29, 2022

I agree with you on Musgrave in the same way I disagree with you about Fox, which is to say by quite a lot. Make or break year.

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Jul 30, 2022·edited Jul 30, 2022

I've always felt that Musgrave is a horrible fit for Wilcox, despite the fact that they're buddies. Musgrave's Pro-Style system needs Pro Players to make Pro Plays...we don't have any of those.

With the team of mediocre 3* guys Wilcox gets on offense (i.e. guys that can't win individual matchups at the points of attack), he needs a gimmick. Air Raid, Spread, whatever....we don't get the horses that can dominate any facet of the game....hence, the O is always garbage. It will continue to be so this year as well...even garbage, however, the D is usually good enough to keep us in the mix, so 6-6 is always in play. Even last year, if the D doesn't hibernate the first month, we beat UNR and TCU and are 7-5...hell, if the D prevents Zach Evans from going up the gut on a run from the 50 with :11 seconds left, we probably beat TCU and are at least 6-6...

As always with Wilcox, the margin for error is soooo slim....and will continue to be.

If Fox is back NEXT season, I quit as a Cal fan.

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Jul 29, 2022·edited Jul 29, 2022Author

Prediction 6-6.

We start the season strong beating UC Davis and UNLV handily, get embarrassed by Notre Dame but I'll be too drunk on Dokkaebier Yuza Blonde Ales to notice. Cal then wins three of four against Arizona, Wazzu, CU, and upsetting UW - inexplicably losing against a terrible Colorado team. Cal then loses three consecutive games to Oregon, USC, and against Oregon State. Cal beats Stanfurd in the Big Game, including Shaw deciding to punt from Cal's 41 yard line down by 24 with 17 minutes left in the game. Cal then loses to UCLA and then gets invited to the a Bowl that been newly sponsored by an obscure company in a bittersweet victory over Jeff Tedford's Fresno State.

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Jul 30, 2022·edited Jul 30, 2022

To echo OoT, I don't think the loss at Folsom Field will be inexplicable...the Buffs are usually tough in Boulder at altitude v. mediocre teams...the loss will be quite explicable ;-)

I think they get to 6-6 as well, though would not be the least bit surprised to beat the Ducks in Berkeley. We...Play...Them...Tough, and Nix is trash.

The ever elusive Sun Bowl? Not sure we beat Wazzu tho in Pullman.

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Wait a minute...I live in So Cal. Is this Dokkabier thing a cult up in the Bay area? I have serious FOMO on this. Do they serve it on tap anywhere? Do they make a Pilsner? So many questions, so little time. As for less important things, I say 6-6 on the season.

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It’s available in SoCal as well. Their website lists all the places your able to find it. Check it out!

https://enjoydkb.com/pages/craft-beer-dokkaebier-store-locator

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Jul 29, 2022·edited Jul 29, 2022

Let me re-iterate my broken record gripe - just start the game with 10 points on the board for Colorado and play them at a neutral sea-level venue. We'd have a much better chance of beating them than at Mile (plus 80 ft) High Folsom Field. Nothing inexplicable about it.

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