SMU Mustangs Football Offensive Preview
Cal nearly upset one ACC title contender. Can they nearly upset another?
SMU is heading into Saturday’s game with a 10-1 record, and a #9 ranking from the College Football Playoff committee. Cal, on the other hand, has just clinched bowl eligibility (and at least they didn’t wait until the last week of the season to do so this time) and is probably just happy to be here. These two teams are facing wildly different expectations.
While Cal and Stanford were bargaining for as much money as an uninterested ACC was willing to pay out (turns out: not much), SMU instead offered to play for free, just happy to be included in a power conference once again, after a long suffering rebuild since becoming the first and only victim of the NCAA’s “death penalty.” Of course, SMU committed the grievous crime of being caught paying players, unlike all those SEC teams who would never dare… get caught. Of course, now that paying players is all very cool and legal, SMU is again thriving. SMU has a number of transfers from blue-chip and big name programs. They have the most—by both quantity and impact— transfers transfers from Miami (9, by my unsophisticated hand count), including a number of their star players (RB Brashard Smith, WR Key’Shawn Smith, DT Jared Harrison-Hunte, etc), as well as transfers from Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, and so on. There’s probably a joke in here somewhere about why so many Miami transfers would come to SMU, likely involving some sort of nasal powder or nasal spray, but I am too lazy to make it here. Nothing to do with the fact that head coach Rhett Lashlee was the former OC/QB coach at Miami, no siree.
It doesn’t matter if SMU is up by 40, head coach Rhett Lashlee is disappointed by the score, and probably about to yell at someone because of it.
The SMU Mustangs, or colloquially, “the Ponies”, have a live animal mascot named Peruna:
Peruna means “potato” in Finnish, but it turns out that Peruna is instead named for a snake oil patent medicine, Peruna, which made its quack inventor, Samuel Brubaker Hartman, obscenely rich. Getting obscenely rich selling fraud? What are you, Stanford?
SMU is a power-spread football team. They spread the ball with Air Raid passing concepts to go with their power run game. They play fast, and they like to go uptempo after first downs (and you can always run the ball while the defense is struggling to get set). They have an extremely athletic quarterback who can run the ball well, so they can attach play-action and RPOs to keep the defense from stacking the box too much. SMU has a very balanced offensive attack as a result. Bill Connelly has SMU the #13 team in the nation (Cal is #38), with the #7 offense and #25 defense.
Their special teams are pretty good as well. Their kicker, Collin Rogers, leads the FBS in kicks of 50+ yards; Rogers is 7/10 from 50+ yards, with a long of 55. The punter, Isaac Pearson, did an apprenticeship in a coal mine back in Australia growing up.
Cal will be playing SMU every year due to existing ACC members’ travel restrictions (something about only one west coast trip—Cal or Stanford—max per 2 years, and the math works out such that Cal, Stanford, and SMU will need to play each other yearly), so hopefully Cal can make this the start of at least a semi-interesting rivalry.
Let’s take a look at the positional breakdown.
Quarterback
SMU began the year with last season's starter, Preston Stone, who led the Mustangs to an AAC Championship. However, they have since transitioned to Kevin Jennings as their quarterback, who is now 8-0 in his record as the starting quarterback. Jennings is a true dual-threat quarterback who excels in and out of the pocket, both on his feet and through the air. In fact, he excels at using either to avoid the blitz, which is one of his strengths. There’s a different (likely) ACC title game quarterback getting all the NFL Draft buzz and media attention, and given how similar the two quarterbacks are, Jennings is currently criminally underrated. With just 10 career starts (he also started the AAC Championship and their bowl game), he’s still a bit raw in processing the field, but the physical talent is obvious. For example, the following is a play that a quarterback should absolutely never do: throwing on the run, across his body, into traffic. And yet, Jennings has the arm strength to still make it work:
Jennings absolutely excels in his ability to throw on the run. Here he throws an absolute dime of a throw on the rollout:
Jennings shows the same high level of accuracy even when throwing on the run:
And he’s perfectly capable of rolling out to either side:
Jennings excels at throwing on the run, but unlike other mobile quarterbacks, Jennings still does a good job of stepping into his throws when throwing from the pocket. Jennings has the arm strength, but he also shows good touch and anticipation by regularly hitting his receivers in stride (particularly on timing routes):
Here’s another example of Jennings throwing from the pocket, stepping into the throw, and firing a dart clear across the field:
Jennings uses a lot of arm strength on his throws, so even when he can’t set his feet, he’s still able to get sufficient velocity on his throws into traffic:
Another of Jennings’s specialties is his ability to avoid a sack and extend plays. He’s mobile, athletic, and difficult to tackle, and he uses that ability to find open receivers when most dual-threat quarterbacks would take off on the ground. Here he buys an absurd amount of time to allow his receiver to get open on the scramble drill:
Jennings avoids pressure while keeping his eyes downfield the entire time:
Opposing defenses have tried to bring extra pressure on Jennings, but he usually makes them regret it. He still has the ability to run the ball himself:
Even high-level pass rushers have struggled to get Jennings down, and Jennings will still make a nice throw despite the pressure:
Of course, with Jennings’s athleticism, he’s a homerun threat running the ball himself, such as on this designed run:
Jennings seems to have an innate sense of where pressure is coming from with how quickly he can diagnose a blitz, so it’s probably not surprising that he can also quickly identify his run lanes as well:
Here Jennings again makes a nice cut to follow his blocks:
I usually would like to counterbalance the highlights with some drawbacks, but Jennings hasn’t had too many bad plays to show. A lot of his interceptions are not really his fault (unless you’re counting his height/size against him), such as when his pass is deflected by a defensive lineman, tipped by a receiver, or just generally when the defender makes an outstanding individual play. On the few occasions he has made bad decisions, I feel like the common thread is where he is trying to do too much individually to make a play:
Again, here he tries too hard to make something happen, in a play where the correct decision was probably to throw it away:
The following is one of Jennings’s rare bad throws, but with the caveat that he had taken a big hit earlier in the game that may have affected his throwing ability:
I don’t think SMU is contending for an ACC championship if it weren’t for the way Jennings is playing this year.
The current backup is Preston Stone, who was a source of hype for SMU coming into the season. With the disclaimer that I did not watch any of SMU’s games in 2023, I haven’t been terribly impressed with what I have seen from Stone this year. It seemed like opposing defenses quickly found the blueprint to frustrate Stone, by bringing more pressure than he could handle (which backfired once Jennings took over, because Jennings would avoid the pressure anyway and have less defenders in coverage to contend with). Although Preston Stone may be the more experienced quarterback with a better ability to quickly read the field, Jennings ability to extend plays and his arm talent have more than made up the difference.
Stone has been accurate when not feeling pressure:
Stone has a quick release, and although he may put too much air under the ball on deep throws, he can still hit the big play:
Generally, however, Stone was inconsistent in his accuracy, and was also prone to some bad throws:
Wilcox-era defenses have often struggled with true dual-threat quarterbacks. Cal’s defenses can usually take away a team’s ability to throw or their ability to pass, but not both, and SMU is dangerous in either facet of the offense. My best guess is that they will try to keep Jennings in the pocket (although the designed rollouts are difficult to deal with), have more defenders in coverage, and try to confuse Jennings in coverage (as it’s the only area of his game he hasn’t truly exceled at yet). Cal will probably not overcommit in bringing too much pressure because even NFL-caliber defensive linemen have struggled to bring Jennings down, and exotic blitz packages have backfired as Jennings then has an easier time throwing to an open receiver. Jennings really is a “pick your poison” type of player.
Running back
If you were hoping that Kevin Jennings was all that Cal had to worry about, then I have bad news. Brashard Smith is one of the best running backs in college football and likely to be one of the first few running backs drafted to the NFL next year. Smith is 2nd in the ACC in rushing yards (trailing only UNC’s Omarion Hampton, another NFL-caliber back). Smith is extremely versatile, and was actually recruited as a wide receiver out of high school, where he was known for his elite speed (he had already posted a sub-4.5 40 time in high school). As a former receiver, he has natural hands and route running ability:
Smith is more than just a checkdown; he’s a legitimate threat in the passing game:
Smith has explosive burst and acceleration, so even though he’s not a big-body downhill runner, he’s able to convert short yardage situations with that drive:
Smith has great vision and the ability to start and stop on a dime, which makes him a very elusive runner between the tackles. He’ll run right through arm tackles:
And here he spins off another:
Here Smith lets his blocks develop and finds his lane:
And once Smith breaks free, he’s gone:
Smith just so quickly accelerates to top speed, which leaves defenders with little margin for error:
Here Smith uses his change of direction ability to beat the first defender and then just runs over the linebacker to get into the endzone:
Smith’s go-to evasive maneuver in the open field is the spin move:
And again:
…And again:
Here Smith uses his speed to get to the edge:
Speaking of versatile WR/RB players, another big part of the run game is Roderick Daniels Jr., who will also occasionally line up at the RB position:
Daniels, typically a slot receiver, is often used as the motion man for e.g. jet sweeps, so he does have a tendency to run to the outside:
Here’s perhaps a better example of Daniels in motion to show his involvement in the run game:
Although Daniels is undersized, his speed makes him a dangerous weapon when he gets the ball in open space:
The more traditional backup to spell Brashard Smith at the RB position is currently LJ Johnson Jr., who is more of a downhill runner:
The best analogue for SMU’s run game that Cal has seen this season is somewhere between Wake Forest’s Demond Claiborne (in terms of running style and ability) and Pitt’s Desmond Reid (in terms of positional versatility). Like Kevin Jennings, I think Brashard Smith has also been criminally underrated by the media this season, which is wild considering he’s second in the conference in rush yards. Cal will have their hands full trying to stop SMU drives when they have Smith to consistently find the yards to sustain those drives.
Receivers
As good as SMU’s receivers are, they are actually missing a couple of their best receivers to injury: TE RJ Maryland and WR Jake Bailey. I was prepared to complete my “criminally underrated” trifecta by discussing the tight end RJ Maryland, who would also be one of the best in the conference at his position, alongside NC State’s Justin Joly and Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden II (the official position being “tight end”, but these days meaning tweener-TE/WR which is actually our biggest-bodied receiver/contested catch specialist with wide receiver skillset). Jake Bailey was the slot receiver who would always find himself open in the middle of the field. I believe both players are out for the rest of the season with injuries, so they are significant losses to the receiving corps.
Their best starting receiver is probably the deep threat outside receiver, Key’Shawn Smith. He has the straight-line speed to get open deep, and he’s shown some excellent hands:
Smith can also be counted on for fades and jump balls in the endzone:
With RJ Maryland out, Key’Shawn Smith now has the most contested catches and contested catch targets, meaning QB Kevin Jennings trusts Smith to come down with the ball:
Here Smith does a great jump of high-pointing the football, keeping his balance on the tackle attempt, and using his speed to break off a big run after the catch:
Although it is usually WR Roderick Daniels on the jet sweep, Smith has also shown off his speed there as well:
And again more recently:
After the injuries to other receivers, Jordan Hudson has taken on a larger role in recent weeks, and is being targeted a lot more. Although he was previously more of a short yardage target (filling in as a backup at both the WR-X and WR-Z positions), he’s seen an increase in 20+ yard targets in recent weeks:
Hudson is a good YAC-receiver, who is able to get separation on short- to intermediate-depth throws. Hudson makes good breaks on short yardage throws:
Probably also worth noting he’s drawn a few unnecessary taunting/unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, like whatever the hell this open hand slap is:
If Key’Shawn Smith is most often targeted deep while Jordan Hudson is most often targeted short, then WR Moochie Dixon is typically the intermediate depth target between these two extremes. Dixon is another speedy receiver, who (like Key’Shawn Smith) can use his speed to get open. Here he gets just enough separation on the double move:
And here SMU takes advantage of Dixon’s speed in the open field:
Another simple route, but once Dixon beats the safety, no one is catching him:
SMU’s leading receiver is surprisingly Roderick Daniels, although it’s hard to tell how many of his receiving yards are effectively run plays (e.g. when the QB flips the ball forward on a jet sweep, it’s technically a pass, etc). Daniels is most likely to get the ball on short yardage throws and behind the line of scrimmage (so if we’re making a chart by receiving depth, it’s: Daniels-Hudson-Dixon-Smith). I put some of those plays in the RB section, but Daniels is a legitimate threat at slot receiver as well. Especially given his—what else—speed:
Daniels can line up pretty much anywhere on the field. Here he is as an outside receiver:
And here Daniels absolutely embarrasses the defensive back with this slant-and-go route:
The tightend hasn’t been a big part of the passing game since Maryland’s injury, but the starting tight end in his place is Matthew Hibner. Hibner has been used more often in a traditional blocking tight end role (a lot of run blocking and some pass blocking), but he’s shown some okay hands when he’s gotten the football:
Lastly, I am not sure if he’ll play since he has been “questionable” to return for weeks now, but SMU has yet another speedy former Miami player in Romello Brinson:
Even though SMU may be missing a couple of their best receivers, this team has no shortage of talent at the position.
Conclusion
SMU has already secured a spot in the ACC Championship game, and SMU is undefeated since Kevin Jennings took over the starting job. SMU is a likely playoff team. SMU’s offense can be deadly both throwing and running the ball. The only team that has been close is Duke, who managed to stay in the game because of an awful outing by the SMU offense with a -6 turnover margin, and Duke still couldn’t close the game out against the SMU defense. It’s hard to imagine a conceivable path to victory for Cal in this one. Try to limit the damage that Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith do, hope for an awful outing from SMU (a -6 turnover margin would be nice; perhaps SMU overlooks Cal as they are already looking ahead to their title game), and then hope that the Cal offensive line can somehow hold up against a very good SMU defensive line. Although Jennings didn’t start the BYU game, he played a significant amount of snaps, and the BYU defense was lights-out in the redzone as SMU had to settle for 5 FGs. Cal is going to need a lot of things to go their way for an upset victory, and I would imagine even still that the narrative would be around SMU losing rather than Cal winning. The Cal defense will have to limit the SMU offense (bend don’t break — force a lot of turnovers, get redzone stops), and the Cal offense will need to try and keep pace, surviving a tough pass rush and take their chances against SMU’s secondary instead. Still, Wilcox’s Cal team typically does upset at least one strong team (looking for our next Washington here, please), so we have that tiny bit of irrational hope to go on.
Go Bears.
You can find my full clips here.
An incredible read as always, Christopher. Happy Thanksgiving to you, sir.
"For example, the following is a play that a quarterback should absolutely never do: throwing on the run, across his body, into traffic."
Kenny Stabler was never more dangerous than when he was on the run.
So, you're sayin' there's a chance!
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