Excellent article and analysis as always! Every team in the nation, every year, comes out of Fall feeling bigger, stronger, faster. It's nothing until Game 1. I'm old enough to remember Tedford Game 1. Out of Fall camp it sounded all optimistic about new energy and all that, but that first game said there was a new leader in town. If our offense can't reliably score 24-31 points a game under Musgrave then we are doomed to mediocrity. Of course I'm optimistic, and have us at around 8 wins, but am just too veteran to expect much until a few games are played and we see the players and schemes in action. Bring it on! Go Bears!
For Cal to have 8 wins, it will have to sweep the pre-season games and have its first winning season in conference since 2009. Sweeping the pre-season is not the same as it was in 2017, 18 and 19 when Cal played and beat struggling North Carolina and Mississippi teams. This time, we get a Nevada team that is projected to win their Mountain West division and a TCU team that won five of its last six games last year and has been called a sleeper in the Big 12. And oh yeah, the game will be played at 10:30 a.m. West Coast time in blazing Fort Worth heat. Eight wins would be monumental and lock in WIlcox' s stature as a rising star in the conference.
Re: the simulation you said you pick an outcome at random, which I assume means an outcome that is guided by our predictions. So, anything under the curve is on the table, but there are more “75s” than anything else for the Nevada game so more likely to pull that as your random likelihood of a win, is that right?
Always love this post each year……let’s make it so and get this going!
That's right. More common predictions have a higher chance of being chosen, so for Nevada a common prediction like 75 is more likely to come up than a less common one like 50.
Hmm, think I need more context to understand your application of the Tragedy of the Commons metaphor. What's the unregulated resource? Sunshine being pumped? (though that is a renewable resource, after all). Or is WFC the resource, and each of our individual rampant, self interested consumption of the great free content here combined with our verbal pollution in the message boards will spell its ultimate demise? Or is it something else? Here I was thinking everything was on the up and up (while probably unknowingly being part of the problem!)!
Yes, we always come back to these predictions at the end of the year to see how we fared--except for last year because the final schedule bore little resemblance to the original schedule. Although there are usually a couple games with unexpected outcomes, we' tend to be pretty accurate with the win totals. In fact, we've been especially accurate during the entire Wilcox era (5.75 predicted wins vs. 5 actual wins in 2017, 7.2 wins vs. 7 actual wins in 2018, 7.2 wins vs. 7 actual wins in 2019).
I do have to say between the initial submission of predictions and actual game week, I am feeling less and less confident about Nevada. I still feel like we're favorites, but I don't feel like the overwhelming favorite that I submitted two (three?) weeks ago.
Agreed this has the potential of being a very tight game. I'm bullish (likely too bullish) on our DL, which potentially could be the cornerstone of a very good D (if key players can stay healthy). This first game is all about the offense & if it has improved or not. Impossible to get a feel for what Musgrave and players will do this season.
Excellent article and analysis as always! Every team in the nation, every year, comes out of Fall feeling bigger, stronger, faster. It's nothing until Game 1. I'm old enough to remember Tedford Game 1. Out of Fall camp it sounded all optimistic about new energy and all that, but that first game said there was a new leader in town. If our offense can't reliably score 24-31 points a game under Musgrave then we are doomed to mediocrity. Of course I'm optimistic, and have us at around 8 wins, but am just too veteran to expect much until a few games are played and we see the players and schemes in action. Bring it on! Go Bears!
For Cal to have 8 wins, it will have to sweep the pre-season games and have its first winning season in conference since 2009. Sweeping the pre-season is not the same as it was in 2017, 18 and 19 when Cal played and beat struggling North Carolina and Mississippi teams. This time, we get a Nevada team that is projected to win their Mountain West division and a TCU team that won five of its last six games last year and has been called a sleeper in the Big 12. And oh yeah, the game will be played at 10:30 a.m. West Coast time in blazing Fort Worth heat. Eight wins would be monumental and lock in WIlcox' s stature as a rising star in the conference.
Re: the simulation you said you pick an outcome at random, which I assume means an outcome that is guided by our predictions. So, anything under the curve is on the table, but there are more “75s” than anything else for the Nevada game so more likely to pull that as your random likelihood of a win, is that right?
Always love this post each year……let’s make it so and get this going!
Go Bears!!!!!! 🐻
That's right. More common predictions have a higher chance of being chosen, so for Nevada a common prediction like 75 is more likely to come up than a less common one like 50.
Do y'Bears (new contraction dropped) compare end of season results against these initial prediction numbers? I forget.
Also I rather don't like the moniker "Voice of Reason" and instead propose the also incorrect but more aptly Cal "Tragedy of the Commons."
Finally, your readers are insane. That is all.
Hmm, think I need more context to understand your application of the Tragedy of the Commons metaphor. What's the unregulated resource? Sunshine being pumped? (though that is a renewable resource, after all). Or is WFC the resource, and each of our individual rampant, self interested consumption of the great free content here combined with our verbal pollution in the message boards will spell its ultimate demise? Or is it something else? Here I was thinking everything was on the up and up (while probably unknowingly being part of the problem!)!
Yes.
Yes, we always come back to these predictions at the end of the year to see how we fared--except for last year because the final schedule bore little resemblance to the original schedule. Although there are usually a couple games with unexpected outcomes, we' tend to be pretty accurate with the win totals. In fact, we've been especially accurate during the entire Wilcox era (5.75 predicted wins vs. 5 actual wins in 2017, 7.2 wins vs. 7 actual wins in 2018, 7.2 wins vs. 7 actual wins in 2019).
Thanks Bearmigo.
The new graph colors look great!
I do have to say between the initial submission of predictions and actual game week, I am feeling less and less confident about Nevada. I still feel like we're favorites, but I don't feel like the overwhelming favorite that I submitted two (three?) weeks ago.
Agreed this has the potential of being a very tight game. I'm bullish (likely too bullish) on our DL, which potentially could be the cornerstone of a very good D (if key players can stay healthy). This first game is all about the offense & if it has improved or not. Impossible to get a feel for what Musgrave and players will do this season.