For Cal to have 8 wins, it will have to sweep the pre-season games and have its first winning season in conference since 2009. Sweeping the pre-season is not the same as it was in 2017, 18 and 19 when Cal played and beat struggling North Carolina and Mississippi teams. This time, we get a Nevada team that is projected to win their Mountain West division and a TCU team that won five of its last six games last year and has been called a sleeper in the Big 12. And oh yeah, the game will be played at 10:30 a.m. West Coast time in blazing Fort Worth heat. Eight wins would be monumental and lock in WIlcox' s stature as a rising star in the conference.
I do have to say between the initial submission of predictions and actual game week, I am feeling less and less confident about Nevada. I still feel like we're favorites, but I don't feel like the overwhelming favorite that I submitted two (three?) weeks ago.
Excellent article and analysis as always! Every team in the nation, every year, comes out of Fall feeling bigger, stronger, faster. It's nothing until Game 1. I'm old enough to remember Tedford Game 1. Out of Fall camp it sounded all optimistic about new energy and all that, but that first game said there was a new leader in town. If our offense can't reliably score 24-31 points a game under Musgrave then we are doomed to mediocrity. Of course I'm optimistic, and have us at around 8 wins, but am just too veteran to expect much until a few games are played and we see the players and schemes in action. Bring it on! Go Bears!
Re: the simulation you said you pick an outcome at random, which I assume means an outcome that is guided by our predictions. So, anything under the curve is on the table, but there are more “75s” than anything else for the Nevada game so more likely to pull that as your random likelihood of a win, is that right?
Always love this post each year……let’s make it so and get this going!
For Cal to have 8 wins, it will have to sweep the pre-season games and have its first winning season in conference since 2009. Sweeping the pre-season is not the same as it was in 2017, 18 and 19 when Cal played and beat struggling North Carolina and Mississippi teams. This time, we get a Nevada team that is projected to win their Mountain West division and a TCU team that won five of its last six games last year and has been called a sleeper in the Big 12. And oh yeah, the game will be played at 10:30 a.m. West Coast time in blazing Fort Worth heat. Eight wins would be monumental and lock in WIlcox' s stature as a rising star in the conference.
Do y'Bears (new contraction dropped) compare end of season results against these initial prediction numbers? I forget.
Also I rather don't like the moniker "Voice of Reason" and instead propose the also incorrect but more aptly Cal "Tragedy of the Commons."
Finally, your readers are insane. That is all.
The new graph colors look great!
I do have to say between the initial submission of predictions and actual game week, I am feeling less and less confident about Nevada. I still feel like we're favorites, but I don't feel like the overwhelming favorite that I submitted two (three?) weeks ago.
Excellent article and analysis as always! Every team in the nation, every year, comes out of Fall feeling bigger, stronger, faster. It's nothing until Game 1. I'm old enough to remember Tedford Game 1. Out of Fall camp it sounded all optimistic about new energy and all that, but that first game said there was a new leader in town. If our offense can't reliably score 24-31 points a game under Musgrave then we are doomed to mediocrity. Of course I'm optimistic, and have us at around 8 wins, but am just too veteran to expect much until a few games are played and we see the players and schemes in action. Bring it on! Go Bears!
Re: the simulation you said you pick an outcome at random, which I assume means an outcome that is guided by our predictions. So, anything under the curve is on the table, but there are more “75s” than anything else for the Nevada game so more likely to pull that as your random likelihood of a win, is that right?
Always love this post each year……let’s make it so and get this going!
Go Bears!!!!!! 🐻