If McKenzie is as advertised, Goode and Deng will terrorize teams. We also need the ILBs to be solid, I saw a lot of Tattersall out of position last year.
An interesting aspect to consider is coaching. I'm hoping the departure of DeRuyter isn't a big loss. TDR has always been fantastic with LB coaching going back to his A&M days. I wasn't super thrilled with Sirmon last year and his last stop as a DC (UL) was poor to say the least. So that's the position that worries me. And of course with the fact that DeRuyter is now at Oregon, one of our opponents has gotten stronger.
Not having BJ in the lineup obviously hurts Cal but given the severity of his injury he may be better off not playing this year. This would allow him to be fully "recovered" and the DL overall would have more experience and depth when he returns next year. In 2022 Cal could have the best DL in the conference, which would be a welcome change, eh?
Defensive backfield is a bit thin after the starters. Surprised that even when GA was around Cal wasn't able to recruit a blue chip given the success the DBs have had with a handful in the pros. Agreed ILB are the tackle machines in the 3/4 and have to be very productive but we seem to have a lot of good options at that position.
The "Takers" or 'Go'ers" could have a good season because I think the DL will be very productive this year, which helps all the units (ILB, DB, S) behind the DL.
This looks like a solid Cal defense, but non on the level of the 2018 Cal defense that won games against good teams by themselves. I think safe to say middle of the pack in the conference. You pair that up with an offense that may not get to middle of the conference level and you have a team that is going to win 5 to 7 games depending on the breaks of each nail biting game (I predict most will be decided late in the fourth quarter in typical Wilcox fashion). It's 7 wins if Cal beats both TCU and Nevada, 6 wins if they split between those teams and five wins if they lose both. We need to remember that Cal has not had a winning record in conference since 2009, a span that includes three different head coaches.
I'd like to see us play at the level of 2018 again and surprise some people. The "Takers" started to get some national attention as I recall and going into 2019 expectations were high, then we didn't quite hit the level of play we had had previously. I don't think there is much, if anything, to learn from 2020 other than that Brett Johnson is very good. Hopefully the secondary once again will be a force and if we can get off to a good start in our first two contests, both challenging, it could help set the tone for the season. Championships (sometimes) are won through defense, this is if the offense can be serviceable at the same time and not ranked 11th or 12th in the conference. Go Bears!
Thanks for another great write-up! Off-topic of player personnel, but another uncertainty going into 2021: OUT: Tim DeRuyter. We'll see if Sirmon and co. miss a step without him.
I would not count on Brett Johnson's return this season. Besides rehabbing from a brutal injury, he'd need to get into football shape. Why endanger his career and rush him back. Get him healthy and muscled up again before putting him on the field.
I was going to make an uniformed comment about how its hard to see how one player, Johnson, can be the tipping point of an entire defense, when I recalled how Weaver carried us on his back, so I'll shut up...thanks Nick, always well done.
Yup Alex, in a game where marginal increases can result in significant gains in outcomes, Brett Johnson is a force. He was a freshman All American and the guy is just a beast, strength wise. As a former wrestler at 300 plus pounds, he's perfectly suited for his role. I just hope we don't bring him back too early. The good news is, Luke is back and we actually have some really big dudes inside and some depth.
I am very very excited to see how Chiggy places this season. I think he's going to be pretty special at corner - and if he and Drayden can lock down the corners - that will allow Sirmon to dial up some more exotic pressures.
Deng is definitely on the all-airport team. He just looks like a linebacker - but i found that he was overrunning or mis reading offenses - I hope at OLB he gets to simplify his reads and take advantage of his speed and reach and immense physical gifts.
Liked and shared because I agree! With Deng perhaps the position switch will net him a rebirth like moving Conte from corner to safety did. Average MLB in NFL is 6'2" for a reason, but "Coin" (spelled Kuony) was playing inside because (a) too talented to keep off the field and (b) relative strengths and weaknesses of other players. That he CAN play both inside and out is a testament to his versatility, which bodes well at the next level and life in general. Goals for this dude, per game: 1 TFL, .5 PD, .5 sack, .33 FF.
You/we probably only read about Cal's depth issues because reporting on that topic requires intimate knowledge of a program, and only local press/fans are going to have that that knowledge (unless you're one of the huge programs). Yes, we seem to perpetually have a problem with depth at one position group or the other every year, BUT so too, probably, do most teams in the NCAA -- we just don't hear about it because we aren't consuming the local media and blogs for those teams.
However, in terms of returning starters (the one thing the larger media seems to know about in that regard), that has been rather favorable for Cal the last couple years. (Without confirming, we might have been #1 in the conference for returning starters [possibly even #1 in the country??] in 2020, which was why expectations were getting pretty high pre-covid.)
It seems there would be an ebb and flow nature to that (returning number of starters), and could also coincide timing of coaching turnover and program rebuilds, etc., with a year or two time delay.
Also, I don't think "minutes" would apply to football like they do, say, to basketball, so I think you're really looking for snap counts. That would be a cool metric to have, if not very realistic.
If McKenzie is as advertised, Goode and Deng will terrorize teams. We also need the ILBs to be solid, I saw a lot of Tattersall out of position last year.
An interesting aspect to consider is coaching. I'm hoping the departure of DeRuyter isn't a big loss. TDR has always been fantastic with LB coaching going back to his A&M days. I wasn't super thrilled with Sirmon last year and his last stop as a DC (UL) was poor to say the least. So that's the position that worries me. And of course with the fact that DeRuyter is now at Oregon, one of our opponents has gotten stronger.
OT: Looks like we’ll be playing on FTX field this year.
“Welcome to Cal's FTX Field, a Naming-Rights Deal Funded by Cryptocurrency”
https://www.si.com/college/cal/.amp/news/cal-field-naming-rights
Not having BJ in the lineup obviously hurts Cal but given the severity of his injury he may be better off not playing this year. This would allow him to be fully "recovered" and the DL overall would have more experience and depth when he returns next year. In 2022 Cal could have the best DL in the conference, which would be a welcome change, eh?
Defensive backfield is a bit thin after the starters. Surprised that even when GA was around Cal wasn't able to recruit a blue chip given the success the DBs have had with a handful in the pros. Agreed ILB are the tackle machines in the 3/4 and have to be very productive but we seem to have a lot of good options at that position.
The "Takers" or 'Go'ers" could have a good season because I think the DL will be very productive this year, which helps all the units (ILB, DB, S) behind the DL.
This looks like a solid Cal defense, but non on the level of the 2018 Cal defense that won games against good teams by themselves. I think safe to say middle of the pack in the conference. You pair that up with an offense that may not get to middle of the conference level and you have a team that is going to win 5 to 7 games depending on the breaks of each nail biting game (I predict most will be decided late in the fourth quarter in typical Wilcox fashion). It's 7 wins if Cal beats both TCU and Nevada, 6 wins if they split between those teams and five wins if they lose both. We need to remember that Cal has not had a winning record in conference since 2009, a span that includes three different head coaches.
I'd like to see us play at the level of 2018 again and surprise some people. The "Takers" started to get some national attention as I recall and going into 2019 expectations were high, then we didn't quite hit the level of play we had had previously. I don't think there is much, if anything, to learn from 2020 other than that Brett Johnson is very good. Hopefully the secondary once again will be a force and if we can get off to a good start in our first two contests, both challenging, it could help set the tone for the season. Championships (sometimes) are won through defense, this is if the offense can be serviceable at the same time and not ranked 11th or 12th in the conference. Go Bears!
Thanks for another great write-up! Off-topic of player personnel, but another uncertainty going into 2021: OUT: Tim DeRuyter. We'll see if Sirmon and co. miss a step without him.
I would not count on Brett Johnson's return this season. Besides rehabbing from a brutal injury, he'd need to get into football shape. Why endanger his career and rush him back. Get him healthy and muscled up again before putting him on the field.
I was going to make an uniformed comment about how its hard to see how one player, Johnson, can be the tipping point of an entire defense, when I recalled how Weaver carried us on his back, so I'll shut up...thanks Nick, always well done.
...uninformed...ugh, no irony there
if you were in fact ununiformed when finally making said comment, i'd say no rules were broken
Yup Alex, in a game where marginal increases can result in significant gains in outcomes, Brett Johnson is a force. He was a freshman All American and the guy is just a beast, strength wise. As a former wrestler at 300 plus pounds, he's perfectly suited for his role. I just hope we don't bring him back too early. The good news is, Luke is back and we actually have some really big dudes inside and some depth.
Agreed. Dude should not even consider coming back this year. Also dig my avatar. I made it from scratch.
I thought you are agreeing with yourself.
I am very very excited to see how Chiggy places this season. I think he's going to be pretty special at corner - and if he and Drayden can lock down the corners - that will allow Sirmon to dial up some more exotic pressures.
Deng is definitely on the all-airport team. He just looks like a linebacker - but i found that he was overrunning or mis reading offenses - I hope at OLB he gets to simplify his reads and take advantage of his speed and reach and immense physical gifts.
Liked and shared because I agree! With Deng perhaps the position switch will net him a rebirth like moving Conte from corner to safety did. Average MLB in NFL is 6'2" for a reason, but "Coin" (spelled Kuony) was playing inside because (a) too talented to keep off the field and (b) relative strengths and weaknesses of other players. That he CAN play both inside and out is a testament to his versatility, which bodes well at the next level and life in general. Goals for this dude, per game: 1 TFL, .5 PD, .5 sack, .33 FF.
Deng had two FFs against Oregon 😳. Just watched the highlights a few days back.
You/we probably only read about Cal's depth issues because reporting on that topic requires intimate knowledge of a program, and only local press/fans are going to have that that knowledge (unless you're one of the huge programs). Yes, we seem to perpetually have a problem with depth at one position group or the other every year, BUT so too, probably, do most teams in the NCAA -- we just don't hear about it because we aren't consuming the local media and blogs for those teams.
However, in terms of returning starters (the one thing the larger media seems to know about in that regard), that has been rather favorable for Cal the last couple years. (Without confirming, we might have been #1 in the conference for returning starters [possibly even #1 in the country??] in 2020, which was why expectations were getting pretty high pre-covid.)
It seems there would be an ebb and flow nature to that (returning number of starters), and could also coincide timing of coaching turnover and program rebuilds, etc., with a year or two time delay.
Also, I don't think "minutes" would apply to football like they do, say, to basketball, so I think you're really looking for snap counts. That would be a cool metric to have, if not very realistic.
The Bear is always bluer on this side of the fence.
Here you go:
https://www.pff.com/college (snap counts, not minutes played - yes it's behind the paywall)