I would add the APR progress, started by Sonny, which has been trending upward. This ticks the box for administrators and more cerebral backers. If we can beat Stanford two out of three years and maybe take down UCLA or USC fairly regularly than I think Wilcox almost has a job for life. It's easy to say at 5-7 that we were just one win away from a bowl, or blame Covid.
Thank you for the recap and "state of the program" article. I'm excited about the transfer portal additions as well as the 2021 defensive recruits, and the return of Brett Johnson. The defense should be a solid unit. The offense is what I am worried about. Who is the Quarterback? Millner or Plummer? Do we have enough speed at WR & TE? Also, is Musgrave going to run the offense again? Or is his contract finished at the end of the month? For this team to make a huge jump, we need to be able to score 28 points or more per game, in my opinion.
Cal had another losing season in the Pac 12 last year when the conference was historically bad. Gotta believe Washington and USC are going to be markedly better next year with new and better coaching staffs and a ton of four and five stars to accelerate the improvement. DTR is coming back to UCLA, and that's not good for Cal. Oregon State is improving every year under Jonathan Smith.
I am penciling in four losses right there plus the road game against Notre Dame. I think Plummer easily wins the qb competition, but he lacks the mobility that Garbers had to escape trouble. Add in a lot of inexperience across the skill positions, and the offense takes a step backwards next year, unfortunately. I think the 2022 season is going to look a lot like the 2018 season. Perhaps an upset or two because there will be a lot of ugly and close games due to a good defense that will keep the scores down. But still 5-7 overall and a pretty happy fan base, apparently.
Solid analysis, Steve...DTR & Charbonnet returning was a dagger...that's now an L on the sched...I do think we can battle with UW at home, at least this year, tho DeBoer will build that program back up.
80% of the games are going to come down to a play or two, mostly on offense...I really like what I saw of Plummer as a passer in the video from Purdue, especially on the short and intermediate routes...he had a crisp motion, got the ball out quick and threw a nice, catchable ball. I know Garbers is revered by many on this board, and I appreciate his tenure...2 Big Game wins and a couple over SC is something few QBs at Cal have ever done...as a Niner fan, I just can't shake his striking game manager similarity to Jimmy Garoppolo - both left so many plays on the field, especially in the passing game....hopefully Plummer can complete those throws that Chase never even attempted, if that makes sense...
In the end tho, 6-6 is probably the ceiling, as we've known about Wilcox for 5 seasons now...and not sure the fanbase is all that happy, judging from the stands at Memorial on game days...
I think it is fairly obvious that to break through we would need higher caliber recruits. When you look at write ups on here of Cal alums in the pro bowl or playoffs or what have you, a large swathe of them are Tedford recruits even though he has been gone for a decade now.
That begs the question of course - how to get those recruits. I think we need to really get folks thinking about how the players can capitalize on name and likeness. I assume all other angles (pushing quality of school, location, etc) are already being done
It's a little bit of a chicken or the egg argument. It's hard to pitch name and likeness opportunities when the program lacks enough of a local and national profile to attract those opportunities. At the same time, we need those types players to elevate the program to a status deserving such attention.
Fair point. That would suggest we just need to hope we get lucky and hope the next Najee type local 5 star guy stays home. That is not a real strategy though.
I have said this before but I think we should create an academic college for D1 athletes. Teaching basic business courses, contract law, nutrition, marketing, etc. Make it its own college/program. Use our academics/innovation to distinguish ourselves.
Thanks the the excellent write up Nick. And, I just heard a rumor that JT Daniels, with three years of eligibility left (you read that right) has entered the transfer portal and is considering CAL. Not sure how I feel about this.
I go back and forth on this one, Rug, but man, it's tough not to notice the lack of talent on the offensive side in the Wilcox era....in the end, a kid that has shown enough chops to start for both USC and UGA should be welcome in Strawberry Canyon....no?
I would take Jayden over JT all day long. Jackson Dart is in the transfer portal. He was a 5 star recruit as well and took over as a freshman this year for Kedon Slovis when he was injured. Slovis transferred to Pitt. Lot's of action. Check it all out here: https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/TransferPortal/
I think Kedon Slovis' transfer to Pitt is a home run for him...he needs to rehab his image for NFL scouts, and throwing to Jordan Addison is a great frigging way to start.
Most casual Cal fans are not familiar with Jordan Addison - kid is an absolute stud. Do the Bears have a player like this on the roster...
Jimmy, I tend to agree with Steve W on this one. He was highly heralded out of high school. He was projected to be the #1 pick after his senior year, but he decided to forego his last year of high school and try his talent at USC. That was a big mistake and I would tell ANY high school junior QB to take the extra year to play. Going to D1, even more so the P5, as a junior, is an almost impossible task. I don't think Helton did JT any favors starting him his first year. Now that he has been injured a few times I'm not sure he'll ever play with the promise we all thought he had. Hell, Georgia put him in a counseling program for a year, and it did not seem to help. I think he has a lot of talent and HAD a lot of promise, but I think the promise has faded. Jack Plummer will be a solid journeyman QB for us, a lot like Davis Webb. Plummer won't be a superstar, but he should be steady and hopefully he doesn't make as many mistakes as Davis Webb made in Franklin's uptempo offense where he ended up throwing a LOT of untimely INT's. We also have two younger guys with a lot of promise, and the more I read about Milner, he has the makings of a really good QB. I think JT would be a distraction, although I wish him all the luck where ever he goes. He really deserves a chance to shine somewhere.
I think that stud qb's already in the transfer portal like Jaxson Dart, and others like JT Daniels potentially in the portal, have to be looking at wide receiver talent and speed and running backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield. In Cal's' case, there is a potential stud in Hunter and very unproven but promising talent in Sturdevant: Call it neutral. The best pass catching running back - Dancy - just graduated and the number one guy coming back - Moore - was benched several times for fumbling: Call that negative. The O line just lost its biggest nasty - Mettaur - to Oklahoma with some pretty solid film evidence evidence the O line got pushed around last year by aggressive edge rushers: Another negative. Finally, Cal's head coach has a reputation for sitting on the lead and letting his defense win games for him: Maybe the biggest negative. The bottom line: those marquee guys are probably not looking at Cal very hard.
Agreed...I have a really hard time believing a QB with NFL aspirations that has experience working with 4 & 5 * recruits is going to look at the entire situation at Cal right now and want to jump on board.
This certainly does not seem like some dynamic offensive system that's going to attract big time talent...and losing Mettauer hurts...
Daniels is brittle. He had injuries both at USC and Georgia that took him out for the better part of two seasons. Unless he has escapability like Garbers, he wouldn't make it through a season at Cal, either. Hard to believe this guy was leading Mater Dei to an undefeated season in 2017. When I saw him play that year, I thought he was a man playing among school children.
I think that a little good luck will go a long way. The players play very hard for this coach, seem to be well coached in general. They just need a few things to come together (like recruiting and some luck* at the same time), and the program should be a consistent bowl team.
*luck being no covid bullshit and widespread injuries
I would add the APR progress, started by Sonny, which has been trending upward. This ticks the box for administrators and more cerebral backers. If we can beat Stanford two out of three years and maybe take down UCLA or USC fairly regularly than I think Wilcox almost has a job for life. It's easy to say at 5-7 that we were just one win away from a bowl, or blame Covid.
Thank you for the recap and "state of the program" article. I'm excited about the transfer portal additions as well as the 2021 defensive recruits, and the return of Brett Johnson. The defense should be a solid unit. The offense is what I am worried about. Who is the Quarterback? Millner or Plummer? Do we have enough speed at WR & TE? Also, is Musgrave going to run the offense again? Or is his contract finished at the end of the month? For this team to make a huge jump, we need to be able to score 28 points or more per game, in my opinion.
We should have enough speed at TE at least.
Cal had another losing season in the Pac 12 last year when the conference was historically bad. Gotta believe Washington and USC are going to be markedly better next year with new and better coaching staffs and a ton of four and five stars to accelerate the improvement. DTR is coming back to UCLA, and that's not good for Cal. Oregon State is improving every year under Jonathan Smith.
I am penciling in four losses right there plus the road game against Notre Dame. I think Plummer easily wins the qb competition, but he lacks the mobility that Garbers had to escape trouble. Add in a lot of inexperience across the skill positions, and the offense takes a step backwards next year, unfortunately. I think the 2022 season is going to look a lot like the 2018 season. Perhaps an upset or two because there will be a lot of ugly and close games due to a good defense that will keep the scores down. But still 5-7 overall and a pretty happy fan base, apparently.
Solid analysis, Steve...DTR & Charbonnet returning was a dagger...that's now an L on the sched...I do think we can battle with UW at home, at least this year, tho DeBoer will build that program back up.
80% of the games are going to come down to a play or two, mostly on offense...I really like what I saw of Plummer as a passer in the video from Purdue, especially on the short and intermediate routes...he had a crisp motion, got the ball out quick and threw a nice, catchable ball. I know Garbers is revered by many on this board, and I appreciate his tenure...2 Big Game wins and a couple over SC is something few QBs at Cal have ever done...as a Niner fan, I just can't shake his striking game manager similarity to Jimmy Garoppolo - both left so many plays on the field, especially in the passing game....hopefully Plummer can complete those throws that Chase never even attempted, if that makes sense...
In the end tho, 6-6 is probably the ceiling, as we've known about Wilcox for 5 seasons now...and not sure the fanbase is all that happy, judging from the stands at Memorial on game days...
The 2018 team went 7-6 (Cheez-Int Bowl year). Aside from that, I see no fault in any of your logic, as usual...
I think it is fairly obvious that to break through we would need higher caliber recruits. When you look at write ups on here of Cal alums in the pro bowl or playoffs or what have you, a large swathe of them are Tedford recruits even though he has been gone for a decade now.
That begs the question of course - how to get those recruits. I think we need to really get folks thinking about how the players can capitalize on name and likeness. I assume all other angles (pushing quality of school, location, etc) are already being done
It's a little bit of a chicken or the egg argument. It's hard to pitch name and likeness opportunities when the program lacks enough of a local and national profile to attract those opportunities. At the same time, we need those types players to elevate the program to a status deserving such attention.
Fair point. That would suggest we just need to hope we get lucky and hope the next Najee type local 5 star guy stays home. That is not a real strategy though.
I have said this before but I think we should create an academic college for D1 athletes. Teaching basic business courses, contract law, nutrition, marketing, etc. Make it its own college/program. Use our academics/innovation to distinguish ourselves.
Thanks the the excellent write up Nick. And, I just heard a rumor that JT Daniels, with three years of eligibility left (you read that right) has entered the transfer portal and is considering CAL. Not sure how I feel about this.
Oh man I'd take Daniels in a nanosecond
I go back and forth on this one, Rug, but man, it's tough not to notice the lack of talent on the offensive side in the Wilcox era....in the end, a kid that has shown enough chops to start for both USC and UGA should be welcome in Strawberry Canyon....no?
I confused him with Jayden Daniels. JT Daniels was the USC QB. I want him!
I would take Jayden over JT all day long. Jackson Dart is in the transfer portal. He was a 5 star recruit as well and took over as a freshman this year for Kedon Slovis when he was injured. Slovis transferred to Pitt. Lot's of action. Check it all out here: https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/TransferPortal/
I think Kedon Slovis' transfer to Pitt is a home run for him...he needs to rehab his image for NFL scouts, and throwing to Jordan Addison is a great frigging way to start.
Most casual Cal fans are not familiar with Jordan Addison - kid is an absolute stud. Do the Bears have a player like this on the roster...
https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4429205/jordan-addison
Jimmy, I tend to agree with Steve W on this one. He was highly heralded out of high school. He was projected to be the #1 pick after his senior year, but he decided to forego his last year of high school and try his talent at USC. That was a big mistake and I would tell ANY high school junior QB to take the extra year to play. Going to D1, even more so the P5, as a junior, is an almost impossible task. I don't think Helton did JT any favors starting him his first year. Now that he has been injured a few times I'm not sure he'll ever play with the promise we all thought he had. Hell, Georgia put him in a counseling program for a year, and it did not seem to help. I think he has a lot of talent and HAD a lot of promise, but I think the promise has faded. Jack Plummer will be a solid journeyman QB for us, a lot like Davis Webb. Plummer won't be a superstar, but he should be steady and hopefully he doesn't make as many mistakes as Davis Webb made in Franklin's uptempo offense where he ended up throwing a LOT of untimely INT's. We also have two younger guys with a lot of promise, and the more I read about Milner, he has the makings of a really good QB. I think JT would be a distraction, although I wish him all the luck where ever he goes. He really deserves a chance to shine somewhere.
Cool...I do like what I've seen from Plummer....just hope Millner sticks around if Plummer wins the job...
I think that stud qb's already in the transfer portal like Jaxson Dart, and others like JT Daniels potentially in the portal, have to be looking at wide receiver talent and speed and running backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield. In Cal's' case, there is a potential stud in Hunter and very unproven but promising talent in Sturdevant: Call it neutral. The best pass catching running back - Dancy - just graduated and the number one guy coming back - Moore - was benched several times for fumbling: Call that negative. The O line just lost its biggest nasty - Mettaur - to Oklahoma with some pretty solid film evidence evidence the O line got pushed around last year by aggressive edge rushers: Another negative. Finally, Cal's head coach has a reputation for sitting on the lead and letting his defense win games for him: Maybe the biggest negative. The bottom line: those marquee guys are probably not looking at Cal very hard.
Agreed...I have a really hard time believing a QB with NFL aspirations that has experience working with 4 & 5 * recruits is going to look at the entire situation at Cal right now and want to jump on board.
This certainly does not seem like some dynamic offensive system that's going to attract big time talent...and losing Mettauer hurts...
Daniels is brittle. He had injuries both at USC and Georgia that took him out for the better part of two seasons. Unless he has escapability like Garbers, he wouldn't make it through a season at Cal, either. Hard to believe this guy was leading Mater Dei to an undefeated season in 2017. When I saw him play that year, I thought he was a man playing among school children.
I think that a little good luck will go a long way. The players play very hard for this coach, seem to be well coached in general. They just need a few things to come together (like recruiting and some luck* at the same time), and the program should be a consistent bowl team.
*luck being no covid bullshit and widespread injuries
I don't believe Gabers was the answer