Basketball Update: ACC Play Preview

With road games against Pitt MBB on Wednesday and Clemson WBB on Thursday, ACC play begins in earnest.

OK, yes, I understand that technically Cal already started ACC play with an early season conference game against Stanford. But now is a good time to review what has happened so far before REAL ACC play begins - games against weird teams from states like Virginia and South Carolina.

So, what do you need to know before the basketball Bears start jetting back and forth across the country?

Cal WBB: ACC Play Preview

The State of the ACC

The ACC in 2024-25 probably isn’t quite as good as the Pac-12 has been for most of the last few seasons, but it’s not far behind. While the ACC probably only has one elite team (Notre Dame), the conference is littered with good teams that fully expect to make the NCAA tournament, and ESPN currently predicts 10 out of 18 teams will end up making the dance.

The ACC does appear to be a bit stratified, and it’s not like every single game should be a major challenge against a top 50 team the way the Pac-12 often felt like. There’s a pretty solid gap between the teams likely to be on the NCAA tournament bubble (Virginia Tech, Stanford(!), Louisville) and teams who aren’t particularly contenders (BC, Miami, Syracuse, SMU, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Pitt).

If Cal does well in conference play, it’s because . . .

The Bears continue to be the best 3 point shooting team in the country:

The Bears are currently 14th in the country in 3 point attempt frequency, and 12th in the country in 3 point percentage. There are teams that are shooting a bit better, but they don’t take that many 3s. There are teams shooting more threes, but they’re not as accurate. No team is better at creating value from behind the arc than Cal is, and they’ve done it against every team on the schedule, good or bad.

If Cal does poorly in conference play, it’s because . . .

Turnovers bog down the offense.

Of the 50 best offenses in the country, Cal has by far the worst turnover percentage. A whopping 25% of Cal’s offensive possessions end in turnovers, the 225th worst turnover percentage in the country.

Cal has been able to overcome this weakness because (as noted above) they’re shooting the absolute lights out, while also doing a good job of grabbing offensive rebounds and getting to the line. If Cal could somehow find a way to cut down on the turnovers, they could go from a good offense to a GREAT offense.

The good news is that the ACC isn’t full of defenses that make a point of forcing turnovers as a stylistic or strategic choice. But there are a handful of teams good enough to beat Cal who can exploit this weakness. Be wary of a road trip to Louisville, as just one example.

What will it take to make the NCAA tournament?

Cal has already done a lot of work to build a resume, with a quad one win over Alabama and quad two wins over Stanford and Auburn, plus no bad losses. Based on what Cal has done already and the relative strength of the ACC so far, a .500 conference record probably gets Cal into the dance for the first time since 2019.

Which games are the most important?

In many ways Cal has a fortunate conference schedule, which is surprising when you have to play every team exactly once except for Stanford. Thankfully, the Cardinal aren’t elite so Cal isn’t saddled with playing a conference juggernaut twice.

But more importantly, Cal’s direct competition at the top of the conference are mostly coming to visit Haas Pavilion. NC State (#24 NET), Florida State (#25), North Carolina (#19), and Georgia Tech (#15) all have to make the cross country trip to Berkeley. That will give Cal four opportunities to notch Quad 1 NET wins at home AND to earn important wins for the purposes of the ACC standings.

If Cal could go 2-2 or better in those four critical home games, an NCAA tournament bid would be a formality and the discussion would be about how high the seed would be.

Our Computer Overlords Predict

Torvik predicts a 12-6 record for the Bears, which would be an excellent debut season in the ACC and likely result in something around a 6 seed, which is also what ESPN’s current bracketology predicts.

Cal MBB: ACC Play Preview

The State of the ACC

ACC teams that have exceeded pre-season expectations: Pitt, SMU

ACC teams that have met pre-season expectations: Duke, Clemson, Stanford, Florida State?

ACC teams that have regressed from their pre-season expectations: everybody else.

Highlighted by a 2-14 record in the ACC/SEC challenge, the ACC has had a disastrous non-conference performance. Duke is an elite team and playing like it, and Pitt and Clemson are fringy top 25 teams, and everybody else has been either disappointing or about as bad as was expected. Everybody in this conference who wants to make the NCAA tournament would be well advised to pull an upset over Duke to get a marquee win.

If Cal does well in conference play, it’s because . . .

They learn how to play offense together.

In many ways, the Cal offense has been remarkably good considering a fatal flaw. Cal is 343rd in the nation in assist to turnover ratio, and that ratio is a negative. Yep, 127 assists to 167 turnovers. The teams behind Cal in the rankings are a who’s who of teams that probably shouldn’t be playing D1 basketball like NJIT, Chicago State, and Tarleton State.

And yet Cal has kept their heads above water because they do everything else on offense. They have a bunch of players capable of creating their own shots, highlighted by the dribble drive skills of Andrej Stojakovic and Jeremiah Wilkinson. They crash the offensive glass hard and draw lots of fouls.

If these players had been playing together for more than 12 games, or if Mark Madsen had a track record as a coach that his teams couldn’t pass the ball, I’d throw my hands up and brace for bad team basketball. But this isn’t typical play for a Madsen team and it’s entirely plausible that these guys learn how to play together. And if that happens, they could easily have an above-average offense in the ACC.

If Cal does poorly in conference play, it’s because . . .

The turnovers persist and the defense remains bad.

Conversely, if Cal doesn’t find a way to get stops, what happens on offense won’t much matter. Cal currently has the 2nd worst defense in the conference, only ahead of the Miami team that made their legendary head coach retire mid-season.

Cal shouldn’t be this bad defensively - the team is too athletic and rangy to be this bad on the defensive end. It’s possible that there will be some 3 point shooting regression, as opponents are unlikely to shoot 37% against the Bears all year long. But until Cal forces missed shots there’s a hard cap on how much better this team can get.

What will it take to make the NCAA tournament?

Some shock road wins, plus a well over .500 conference record. To be clear, I don’t think this season is about NCAA tournament contention barring some pretty unlikely developments.

Right now Cal has one okayish win (on the road over USC) and two pretty bad losses (at home against Stanford and Cornell) and so an NCAA tournament bid means that quad 1 wins have to come from somewhere.

As a sort of inverse to the Cal women, the Cal men have to travel to all of the best ACC teams on the road. Kenpom has just five ACC teams in the top 50 in the country, and Cal plays four of them (Pitt, Clemson, UNC, and Duke) on the road, while getting SMU both at home and on the road. On the bright side, that means that Cal has more opportunities for quad 1 wins that many other ACC teams. On the downside, Cal’s going to be a heavy underdog in all of those games.

Which games are the most important?

The next two! Cal plays Pitt and Clemson on the road on Wednesday and Sunday, and those two games will be great measuring sticks. If Cal is competitive (or even pulls an upset) then that’s a positive sign that this team may have turned a corner and will be ready to compete in the ACC. Conversely, if Cal falls by double digits to both teams then this season is really about experience, skill development, and roster retention building into next season.

Our Computer Overlords Predict

Kenpom and Torvik both predict a final ACC record of 6-14, which would consign Cal to an eighth straight season of under .500 basketball. Sigh.