Bears Bureau: I'd Rather Bear Up than Bear Down
Well that Ott'a do it
A fair amount of people were concerned coming into this weekend with the House of Horrors known as the Arizona Wildcats coming to town. Cal hadn’t beat the Wildcats since 2009 so there was certainly some validity to those feelings. However, all is now right in the world after some contentious back and forth between Cal and Arizona fans. Jaydn Ott ran the show literally and helped the Bears to their highest offensive output in the Justin Wilcox era (Cal did beat Oregon State 49-7 in 2018 but there was a pick six score in that game). Why Arizona has the catchphrase Bear Down I’ll never know but it is a good thing the Golden Bears stock rose up after week one of Pac 12 play.
Where to Buy: Jaydn Ott
I mean need I say more. Seriously. I could give an unlimited amount of compliments but what he did on Saturday was nothing short of sensational. His 274 rushing yards were the most in a single game by a FBS player this season. He averaged 14.4 yards per rush, with a final statline of 19 carries, 274 yards, and 3 touchdowns. It was also the 3rd highest rushing yard total in a single game in Cal football history. I mean what the hell. He has 463 rushing yards through four games and is building himself in the receiving game as well. Ott is as dynamic as a true freshman as we’ve seen in recent memory and provides a whole new lifeline to the offense. Buy up short term, for the season, long term it doesn’t even matter. Jaydn Ott is a bonafide star and teams are about to find out the hard way just how good he is.
Sioape Vatikani
Well from one true freshman to another, up next was the starting left guard from this past weekend, Sioape Vatikani. It takes two to tango and Vatikani has proven both against Notre Dame and now against Arizona that he should be in the starting lineup for Cal. His nastiness, his IQ, and sheer will power are off the charts for a true freshman. From pulling on counter runs to dragging Ott for his 2nd touchdown of the day, Vatikani has a bright future ahead in the blue and gold. I genuinely believe that he has a NFL future and can replicate at least some of the things that Alex Mack did despite playing in a different position, he just has that fire in his eyes and appeal.
Coaching adjustments
Both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Cal came out of the locker room at the break storming. On offense, there was an even greater emphasis at running the ball, in part to setting up play action to Elijah Mojarro and Keleki Latu. Bill Musgrave knew that Ott’s early down running forced Arizona’s hand in putting more defenders into the box, allowing for for eye candy and hard play action which worked in small spurts when Ott wasn’t running a marathon in the open field.
As for the defensive side of the ball, Justin Wilcox noted in his press conference that the defense frankly didn’t do anything right on any level in the first half. And they certainly came with a vengeance in the second half, rotating in more outside linebackers and covering better on the backend. Daniel Scott and Isaiah Young had interceptions in the fourth quarter while Orin Patu had a forced fumble that Myles Jernigan recovered while the Wildcats were driving. Needless to say the coaches probably got in their ear a ton at halftime, and the adjustments mentally more than physically certainly set the Bears up for success. Buy low and see how the second half trends continue to develop.
Jermaine Terry: Hold
A highly regarded prospect when he signed with the Golden Bears, Terry’s role in the offense has been extremely limited in his time on the field this year. He’s been fairly tied down to the run game only and when asked to run routes it seems to be either five or six yard stop or out routes, not necessarily the length of which you want to see his usage go. Understandably the Musgrave offense features multiple tight ends with Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford with the Raiders and the recent trio of Collin Moore, Gavin Reinwald, and Jake Tonges, but Terry’s role has been puzzling so far. He shares time with Elijah Mojarro and Keleki Latu and while that is not a bad thing in the slightest, he hasn’t been as dynamic as I expected. Check back by the Washington game to really see where his standing is at.
Angus McClure: Hold
Did the offensive line adjustments work like heaven this week? Yes. From moving Mathew Cindric to right guard to Brian Driscoll to center and the introduction of Vatikani to the starting lineup, this was the best the offensive line has performed all season. But was this a product of trends they were looking at or simply a product of Spencer Lovell being hurt? My head says the latter and my heart hopes for the former, but that’s why it is a hold. We don’t know what will happen once everyone gets healthy and that’s why it is appropriate to hold for the moment. If they continue to roll out this lineup and it continues to succeed, then look to buy low on McClure and the rest of the offensive line for the rest of the season.
Quick hits from around the league
Oregon State’s defense: Buy
The Beavers may not have won but man did the defense come to play. An offense that was averaging just under 51 points per game through three games, it would’ve been a miracle upon first glance to hold USC to around 31-34 points and hope for a shootout in Reser. Well did they do that and then some, they made Caleb Williams look bad. And I mean really bad, probably his worst college game of his career. The Beavs held him to under a 50% completion percentage, had him running for his life, and limited him to no touchdowns until the game winning pass to Jordan Addison with 1:13 left in the game along with the fact that they fended off 4 Chance Nolan interceptions and only gave up 17 points. They’ve forced 8 turnovers through 4 games, and look to continue to make visiting teams lives a living hell when they come to Corvallis.
USC defense: Buy
In the same vein, Alex Grinch has the Trojan defense clicking on all cylinders right now. USC has forced 14 turnovers through 4 games, ripping the ball and taking the ball away at will. If the Trojan offense wasn’t so prolific, all the headlines would be on the defense because they’ve clearly been the inferior side of the team since about 2019 and look to be a great compliment to Caleb Williams and the offense. This teams ceiling is as high as the defense can hold, because the offense is a known quantity unlike the defense. But so far color me sold. I just can’t wait to see what happens when they face Utah in Salt Lake City soon.
Stanford: Sell
Stanford may have a lot of continuity in terms of people who saw the field last season but this team is just not good and nothing seems inspiring to make me think otherwise. They lost Thomas Booker, Austin Jones, and Nathaniel Peat but got their whole wide receiver room healthy and it just hasn’t helped. The new delayed RPO offense seems to have bumped up the offense a slight bit from last season but the defense is still a trainwreck. Other than Tanner Mckee, the wide receivers, and Ben Yurosek, I just don’t see it for this team at all. I don’t think Stanford will fire David Shaw but we’ve seen people fired for less.
Zach Charbonnet: Buy
In my opinion, the best running back in the Pac 12, Zach Charbonnet put his name back on the map with a strong showing against the Buffaloes. He only had 9 rushes but had 104 yards along with 3 touchdowns and made defenders look silly in the open field with his mix of strength, balance, and agility. He missed UCLA’s game against Alabama State and had a bit of a rough return against South Alabama but look for him to re-stake his claim as the best back in the conference. Keep an eye on him as someone who can balance Dorian Thompson-Robinson and lift the Bruins to victory.
Washington State secondary: Hold
While the defensive line for the Cougs has been really good and helped foster their pursuit of the football, the secondary has been very hit or miss. Going from sideline to sideline, they are easily a top three group in the conference. They attack the run, jet sweeps, and screens at a very elite level but their problem resides in vertical coverage. In week 3 against a terrible Colorado State team, the Wazzu secondary gave up 4+ catches of at least 19 yards, and the Oregon Ducks certainly weren’t going to let that slide. And they didn’t. Six different Oregon receivers had catches of 21 yards or more, illustrating the issues the Cougars have in defending over the top. It is a hard dilemma to crack because I can’t think of a secondary in recent memory that is better at attacking short routes and the run as opposed to the seems and over the top. Troy Franklin of Oregon (via East Palo Alto, CA) made them look silly and Jeremiah Hunter along with J Michael Sturdivant and Mavin Anderson all have a chance to breed blown coverages on Saturday.
That’s your market report after week 4, here’s to more chaos and fluidity after week 5!
Regarding "Bear Down"... it comes from basically the Arizona version of Joe Roth. In 1926, QB John Salmon was fatally injured in a car crash, and his dying words were "...tell the team to bear down". It's a similarly tragic story to Roth's in the sense that a player left a lasting legacy at the school after their demise.
If you hadn't already bought Zach Charbonnet stock, you're a couple of years late. Most probably also bought Ott a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, it might already be too late to dump Stanford; no one will buy it, especially now that the injuries are starting to pile up. Their overall talent is down, but their depth is even more lacking in quality.