We need to prioritize long-tern security over our preference to keep the conference together unfortunately. Too much unending risk in UW/UO and any of the corner schools going rogue. Eat or be eaten. If you can go to the B1G even on discount, but with assurances of increasing stake in the next media rights cycle, you have to do it.
I question the validity of the claim that the Big Ten is ready to add four more PAC 12 schools. Until a new commissioner is hired, I can’t see the Big Ten making any major moves. Adding schools not only requires the agreement of the university presidents but also an accord with Fox, CBS and NBC. This involves considerable negotiations within the Big Ten before any move would be made to add more schools. There is no reason for the Big Ten to rush into this nor do I believe there is yet a consensus to do so. The rumors about further expansion are highly unlike to be based on factual information at this point in time. BTW, when Nebraska and later Rutgers and Maryland were added, none of these schools received full revenue shares during their initial years in the Big Ten, so there is a precedent for doing this in the future. Once the PAC 12 announces the new media deal, then if it is a poor deal, the Big Ten might be open to talking with Oregon, UW, Cal and Stanford should they call.
$45M would be a wash. ~$9M over our current payout which would probably just cover the huge increase in travel & lodging expenses for our 16 sports. $50M is probably the minimum Cal would accept, but they shouldn't. The perception would be devastating - 16 'haves' and 2 or 4 'have nots'? Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois all getting double what Cal & Stanford would get? That's a really bad look & assures that neither bay area school would ever be competitive in the BIG 20. If not offered close to an equal share, decline. If UW & UO go, and the 4 corners schools bail to the big12, join whatever conference, make it the PAC-2, go independent, whatever. Downgrade the program, sign a steaming deal, get out of the race.
Respectfully disagree. There is precedent for new members that aren't powerhouses joining for less than a full share and working up to it. I may not like it, but we're not a powerhouse (...YET! lol). I also don't know about "$45M would be a wash". Not getting anywhere near that with whatever Pac deal may materialize.
$9M would be more than enough to cover travel costs. In FY22, all of Cal Athletics spent $2.3M on travel expenses. You're telling me going to the midwest/potentially east coast a few times per year quadruples this? The math ain't mathing... After all, not every sport goes everywhere every year.
"Downgrade the program, sign a steaming deal, get out of the race."
Personally, I'd find this outcome much more devastating than some deal where Cal gets much more money than the alternative, even while still less than Ohio State and Michigan, for X number of years before "full member" status or whatever.
On the travel: folks need to remember that a scenario with Cal going to the Big Ten likely involves Oregon, Washington, and Stanford also joining and USC and UCLA already being there, which probably means we're in some kind of Western Division within the conference. With that setup, most of the road games will be the normal kinds of trips we're already used to. A handful more will have us going back east, but that's not a major hardship.
Yes, my point exactly. If maybe 25% of our sports schedules shifts to east-coast/midwest trips, no way does that translate to a quadrupling of travel costs. If those trips end up doubling the cost compared to what would have been in the old Pac-12, that's still only a 25% increase in spending, or ˜$0.5M. Financially speaking, it really is a no-brainer to join if given the invitation at any increase in revenue considering long term prospects.
My dream scenario....Please Cal Admin don't screw this up......Really feels like the future of relevant Cal Athletics is hanging in the balance. If we end up left behind in a nuked Pac-# than there truly is no future
Cal should be in total tag-along mode. If Oregon and UW are leaving like they want to, Cal absolutely needs to make itself as appealing as possible to ride along. We're certainly not in a strong position right now, but we should be trying to get UCLA and USC to advocate for additional west coast partners.
One would think UCLA is an advocate as they would not have to share their Big10 allowance with Cal, and there would be very little downside from Cal joining otherwise.
Why wouldn’t they. If they get a larger share than Cal, they could (and should) still be on the hook for Calimony since they initiated this whole clusterfarce.
You guys have played monopoly, right? You know what happens in the end. That's why the government created regulatory bodies, to keep this sort of stupid sh*t from happening. I know that Texas and Oklahoma sort of kicked this storm off, but their move was not as destabilizing. The powers at be should prevent UCLA and USC from moving, period. The financial whims of two institutions should not be allowed to destabilize college athletics in an entire region. I know many of you will say that this is just the way things are now...but damned, sombody has to stand up and call this sh*t out.
Washington and Oregon are headed to the Big 10. Way too much smoke for it to not happen.
When that happens, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and ASU will all be welcomed to the Big 12.
Washington State and Oregon State will have to accept the Mountain West.
Only question is does Stanford and Cal get the golden parachute to the Big 10 or are we left in the cold with the Mountain West (or worse).
Best case is we get a 50% share for the Big 10. And I do think that happens once they know how low they can go with their offer. Worst case is are too proud for Mountain West and try an independent deal with Stanford or drop a level to the rest of the IC schools.
The independent option is interesting. Had never considered that, though I don't know how we could pull that off without TV money. The Memorial debt alone dictates that Cal will never quite be able to get out of big time football even if we wanted to.
Cal fans: This article supports what I've suspected all along. Cal will probably get an invite to the Big-10 but not for the same money as U$C and FUCLA. The Bay Area and the Pacific Northwest are not insignificant TV markets so I don't see the Big-10 just leaving them to someone else. I hope that Avi is right and we can get somewhere near $40 million to join. It's not the same big money that U$C and FUCLA will be getting but hey, half a loaf is better than nothing at all (and it's still more than the $30-35 million we were getting before).
(Common sense would indicate that Scott's pipe dreams were just that on Day 1. Yeah, he sold the 12 Presidents a bill of goods, but that was easy. He just told them what they wanted to hear, just like parroting back the Prof on an essay final, and they swallowed it hook, line and sinker. The Presidents were the supposed adults in the room.)
He's been a disaster for years...but he's been gone for 2 years come May and apparently the Conference still has yet to bottom out because of his tenure. That's something.
The Pac 12 is sucking wind in its own media negotiations and has no leverage, that's the big problem. If it's ESPN alone it will be a low, low price. However if the Big 10 bails us out then all could end up rainbows and unicorns for Cal, and we get way more shekels than if we were relegated to Siberia of college football, Mt West, etc.
There's a lot of great thoughts, ideas and conjecture here, but no one really know what's in Kliavfoff's head right now and how the rest of the PAC is involved. Ima gonna pour a beer, and then another, and maybe another, and wait and see.
One key of expansion that isn't getting much consideration it the desire of the Big 12 to lure the four corner schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah) out of the Pac 12. Should that happen before the Big 10 does anything, then Oregon and Washington won't have much bargaining power left with the Big 10, they'd be selected by the conference, but would get no more than half of the revenue the other 16 teams get. As for Cal and Stanford, yeah, maybe the Big 10 would take them, but the Big 10 is also looking south at a couple of ACC teams (FSU, Miami, UNC, Clemson) to see what becomes of that mess.
I don't think those four corner schools are jumping until someone else jumps to the Big Ten. The Big 12 is strictly a fallback position for everyone in the Pac.
We need to prioritize long-tern security over our preference to keep the conference together unfortunately. Too much unending risk in UW/UO and any of the corner schools going rogue. Eat or be eaten. If you can go to the B1G even on discount, but with assurances of increasing stake in the next media rights cycle, you have to do it.
I question the validity of the claim that the Big Ten is ready to add four more PAC 12 schools. Until a new commissioner is hired, I can’t see the Big Ten making any major moves. Adding schools not only requires the agreement of the university presidents but also an accord with Fox, CBS and NBC. This involves considerable negotiations within the Big Ten before any move would be made to add more schools. There is no reason for the Big Ten to rush into this nor do I believe there is yet a consensus to do so. The rumors about further expansion are highly unlike to be based on factual information at this point in time. BTW, when Nebraska and later Rutgers and Maryland were added, none of these schools received full revenue shares during their initial years in the Big Ten, so there is a precedent for doing this in the future. Once the PAC 12 announces the new media deal, then if it is a poor deal, the Big Ten might be open to talking with Oregon, UW, Cal and Stanford should they call.
$45M would be a wash. ~$9M over our current payout which would probably just cover the huge increase in travel & lodging expenses for our 16 sports. $50M is probably the minimum Cal would accept, but they shouldn't. The perception would be devastating - 16 'haves' and 2 or 4 'have nots'? Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois all getting double what Cal & Stanford would get? That's a really bad look & assures that neither bay area school would ever be competitive in the BIG 20. If not offered close to an equal share, decline. If UW & UO go, and the 4 corners schools bail to the big12, join whatever conference, make it the PAC-2, go independent, whatever. Downgrade the program, sign a steaming deal, get out of the race.
Respectfully disagree. There is precedent for new members that aren't powerhouses joining for less than a full share and working up to it. I may not like it, but we're not a powerhouse (...YET! lol). I also don't know about "$45M would be a wash". Not getting anywhere near that with whatever Pac deal may materialize.
$9M would be more than enough to cover travel costs. In FY22, all of Cal Athletics spent $2.3M on travel expenses. You're telling me going to the midwest/potentially east coast a few times per year quadruples this? The math ain't mathing... After all, not every sport goes everywhere every year.
"Downgrade the program, sign a steaming deal, get out of the race."
Personally, I'd find this outcome much more devastating than some deal where Cal gets much more money than the alternative, even while still less than Ohio State and Michigan, for X number of years before "full member" status or whatever.
On the travel: folks need to remember that a scenario with Cal going to the Big Ten likely involves Oregon, Washington, and Stanford also joining and USC and UCLA already being there, which probably means we're in some kind of Western Division within the conference. With that setup, most of the road games will be the normal kinds of trips we're already used to. A handful more will have us going back east, but that's not a major hardship.
Yes, my point exactly. If maybe 25% of our sports schedules shifts to east-coast/midwest trips, no way does that translate to a quadrupling of travel costs. If those trips end up doubling the cost compared to what would have been in the old Pac-12, that's still only a 25% increase in spending, or ˜$0.5M. Financially speaking, it really is a no-brainer to join if given the invitation at any increase in revenue considering long term prospects.
agreed, plus travel cost doesn't scale linearly with distance. cheaper food and hotels in the midwest might actually make it a comparable cost.
My dream scenario....Please Cal Admin don't screw this up......Really feels like the future of relevant Cal Athletics is hanging in the balance. If we end up left behind in a nuked Pac-# than there truly is no future
"Please Cal Admin don't screw this up" - it appears that ship may have already sunk.
:'(
Knowlton: “Hold my beer”
Why be part of a conference where you will never win. Cal will always be in the bottom 3.
Cal should be in total tag-along mode. If Oregon and UW are leaving like they want to, Cal absolutely needs to make itself as appealing as possible to ride along. We're certainly not in a strong position right now, but we should be trying to get UCLA and USC to advocate for additional west coast partners.
One would think UCLA is an advocate as they would not have to share their Big10 allowance with Cal, and there would be very little downside from Cal joining otherwise.
Why wouldn’t they. If they get a larger share than Cal, they could (and should) still be on the hook for Calimony since they initiated this whole clusterfarce.
You guys have played monopoly, right? You know what happens in the end. That's why the government created regulatory bodies, to keep this sort of stupid sh*t from happening. I know that Texas and Oklahoma sort of kicked this storm off, but their move was not as destabilizing. The powers at be should prevent UCLA and USC from moving, period. The financial whims of two institutions should not be allowed to destabilize college athletics in an entire region. I know many of you will say that this is just the way things are now...but damned, sombody has to stand up and call this sh*t out.
Washington and Oregon are headed to the Big 10. Way too much smoke for it to not happen.
When that happens, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and ASU will all be welcomed to the Big 12.
Washington State and Oregon State will have to accept the Mountain West.
Only question is does Stanford and Cal get the golden parachute to the Big 10 or are we left in the cold with the Mountain West (or worse).
Best case is we get a 50% share for the Big 10. And I do think that happens once they know how low they can go with their offer. Worst case is are too proud for Mountain West and try an independent deal with Stanford or drop a level to the rest of the IC schools.
SEC scoops us up
The independent option is interesting. Had never considered that, though I don't know how we could pull that off without TV money. The Memorial debt alone dictates that Cal will never quite be able to get out of big time football even if we wanted to.
Cal fans: This article supports what I've suspected all along. Cal will probably get an invite to the Big-10 but not for the same money as U$C and FUCLA. The Bay Area and the Pacific Northwest are not insignificant TV markets so I don't see the Big-10 just leaving them to someone else. I hope that Avi is right and we can get somewhere near $40 million to join. It's not the same big money that U$C and FUCLA will be getting but hey, half a loaf is better than nothing at all (and it's still more than the $30-35 million we were getting before).
Yikes. Really seeing now just how devastating the Larry Scott era was for the Conference.
Seriously, Jimmy? Just now?
(Common sense would indicate that Scott's pipe dreams were just that on Day 1. Yeah, he sold the 12 Presidents a bill of goods, but that was easy. He just told them what they wanted to hear, just like parroting back the Prof on an essay final, and they swallowed it hook, line and sinker. The Presidents were the supposed adults in the room.)
Yeah, I probably misspoke. ;-)
He's been a disaster for years...but he's been gone for 2 years come May and apparently the Conference still has yet to bottom out because of his tenure. That's something.
yeah, he has had long coat-tails, but on that, I blame the Presidents who paid him royally for such stupidity.
The Pac 12’s demise has been a real team effort.
Tell the big 10 to take a hike. You will see what a mess UCLA and USC will become.
The Pac 12 is sucking wind in its own media negotiations and has no leverage, that's the big problem. If it's ESPN alone it will be a low, low price. However if the Big 10 bails us out then all could end up rainbows and unicorns for Cal, and we get way more shekels than if we were relegated to Siberia of college football, Mt West, etc.
HALLEUJAH!!! --- GREAT NEWS --- let's hope this comes to fruition
Just send us the invitation.
There's a lot of great thoughts, ideas and conjecture here, but no one really know what's in Kliavfoff's head right now and how the rest of the PAC is involved. Ima gonna pour a beer, and then another, and maybe another, and wait and see.
Is Big Ten here yet?
One key of expansion that isn't getting much consideration it the desire of the Big 12 to lure the four corner schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah) out of the Pac 12. Should that happen before the Big 10 does anything, then Oregon and Washington won't have much bargaining power left with the Big 10, they'd be selected by the conference, but would get no more than half of the revenue the other 16 teams get. As for Cal and Stanford, yeah, maybe the Big 10 would take them, but the Big 10 is also looking south at a couple of ACC teams (FSU, Miami, UNC, Clemson) to see what becomes of that mess.
I don't think those four corner schools are jumping until someone else jumps to the Big Ten. The Big 12 is strictly a fallback position for everyone in the Pac.