Cal aint going to the big ten! Washington, Oregon, and even Stanford will beat them out. Cal is far from a football school, and they should be talking to the big 12, or the wac!
Let's not have it seem like the Big Ten is some paragon of academic excellence that would be kind to accept the poor crumb eaters of Cal and Stanford. Or UW. Truth is that the BIG would be damn lucky and improved in academic reputation by adding two of the top schools in the nation. Cal as the top public school, surpassing any of the BIG, and Stanfurd as a top private. We may be a second tier football school, admittedly, but let's never hang our heads about our international reputation for being a WORLD leading university! Fiat Lux!
The Big Ten universities are presently managing almost $10 billion in research funds. That’s about ten times whatever the next media contract will earn. Plus the media rights are primarily used in the athletic departments and have little direct benefit for the academic interests of the universities. Florida is an AAU school, but in my wildest dreams I can’t imagine the Big Ten wanting FSU or Miami. As I previously wrote, the Big Ten is run by people who put academics first. They aren’t going to lower their standards just so the athletic departments have more money to spend. The SEC is a far different animal, so they may be interested in FSU and Miami, but not the Big Ten. The Big Ten Commissioner never mentioned these schools. It was a reporter who proposed them as possible candidates.
No way Oregon & Washington sign onto the Big XII until the BiG says, 'no-way, no-how, never-gonna-happen' to them. And if Wilner's media analysis is close, the Four Corners schools can do better financially in the remaining Pac10, not to mention keeping recruiting contacts.
To hell with B1G. Our fanbase has been running on the fumes of the peak Tedford years for well over a decade. At least with SonnyD we had some exciting shoot outs to keep things interesting, even if we were mediocre overall. Now with Wilcox we get boring "B1G-style" football while still being mediocre.
Moving to the B1G means we will forever be a basement dweller. There is no chance we stay remotely competitive in a "Western B1G" division that consists of the CA schools plus UO and W. And the east-west travel bias means the eastern division/teams would hold an unfair advantage even in the very rare case we make a run for a conference title. The extra TV revenue means little when every other school in the conference is getting the same money (in terms of competitiveness at least, stadium debt is another thing). And I wouldn't put it past the B1G to eventually adjust the revenue allocations towards the more successful schools, putting us in an even bigger competitive disadvantage.
At least with the Pac-12(10) we could dream of the occasional run at the conference championship. All we need right now is to field a respectable team, catch the conference in a down year, and catch a few lucky breaks. If we can string a few seasons like that together, that could be enough to get fan engagement back up again and start filling the stadium. I suspect a move to the B1G means we are going to be eternally doomed to watching our team struggle year in and year out, memorial stadium filled with opposing teams fans, and the slow asphyxiation of what is left of our fanbase. But hey, at least we will have paid off the stadium.
I don't see any reason to think our competitive results would be much different in the B1G than they were in the Pac-10/12. Remember, the B1G is not just Ohio State and Michigan. It's also Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana.
Our competitive results have not been great in the last decade. So if what you are saying is that we will go from being mediocre in the PAC-12 to also being mediocre in the B1G, then I would agree with you. But what I am saying is that unlike in the PAC-12, our chance of making an occasional run at the conference championship would be pretty much nill. At least in the PAC-12. we can imagine a scenario where it happens (and we had the pieces in place a few times this past decade, but just didn't get those lucky bounces).
The B1G is aiming to be a super conference. By definition, that is going to result in more teams, and higher quality teams to boot. We can barely break through in a mediocre P5 conference. We won't stand a chance in a super conference. I could see a few academic rivalries forming which could be fun. But I am not sure that will be enough excitement for our fans if we end up as perennial bottom dwellers.
Yes, I'm saying that Cal would have about the same record in such a conference that it always had in the Pac-10/12. That includes the recent mediocre seasons, the good Tedford seasons, and the awful Holmoe or Dykes years. Cal would still rise and fall based on its own performance just as it always has.
I'm guessing it's speculation as to a potential schedule where the west coast teams will play each other every season no matter what - so in that hypothetical, Cal plays 3 non-conference teams, plays the 5 West Coast teams every season, and that leaves 4 games against the rest of the BIG schools each year.
So Cal versus Stanfurd, Oregon, UW, UCLA, USC, or 5 teams we have always played every season (except 2020) - that's not easy as any given season, at least 2 of those 5 teams are really good, and we can't expect to play Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana every year for the 4 non-West Coast BIG games.
Exactly this. Essentially we would be replacing the "easy" part of our current conference schedule (WSU, OSU, and two of the four four corner schools) with two away games that involve traveling a few timezones east (with its known bias performance bias against west coast teams) as well as a much higher average level of competition on a per team basis.
In any given season, the bulk of our conference wins come from that part of our schedule. We can barely get into bowl games as is. I feel like a move to the B1G means just getting into a bowl game becomes our new "Rose Bowl before I die!". Not something I would be excited about as a fan.
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a bowl game each season - once the realignment carousel stops, the bowl games will revise who plays who and if the BIG is 20 teams deep at that point, expect at least 10-12 bowl game affiliations and assuming 2-3 teams are in the playoffs (which will be expanded after 2025 when the current contract runs out), that's 14-15 of 20 BIG teams going bowling if they just have at least 6 wins.
So I wouldn't be so down on Cal's chances of going to a bowl game. With the leverage of the BIG and since Cal does travel decently, all you need is 6 wins, so that's beating all 3 non-conference teams, win 2 of the 5 on the West Coast, and just 1 of the 4 non-West Coast BIG teams. With Wilcox's defense-first, ball control offense, this is doable, especially if we get a QB that avoids turnovers. Might be a little boring, but my heart can't take anymore Cardiac Cal teams (like the Sonny Dykes squads).
As for a Rose Bowl appearance? That's long gone. With the NIL and this realignment, it's all going to come down to whichever fan base is willing to spend the most money and I would like to think our fanbase is not that dumb to throw money away on something that is ultimately meaningless.
Personally, I agree with you, but no one gives a shit what we think unless we donate tens of millions of dollars each year.
Cal's stadium debt exceeds $400 million. Any potential Pac-12 TV contract will get Cal maybe $30 million a year, while even a second-tier BIG TV contract payout will likely be double that (possibly triple if it's even payouts).
It's a no-brainer for the bean-counters that are ultimately in charge of this sort of thing.
So SEC does not have any school in the top 6 media markets (I believe aTm is in Houston market not Dallas-FW), and only 2 in the top 10 (Atlanta and Houston). They can generate that much money on football alone. I'm just impressed. Those in the SEC region can be so passionate about college football teams that they didn't even attend. That will never happen in California (or any other parts of the country).
A major point made is that while all four schools are being considered, they're viewed more as necessary measures that won't carry as much value. There's the possibility (likelihood?) that any deal would result in us four taking lower revenue shares than other members of the B1G. You have to think Cal is a major source of that consideration, but at least we're being included.
I would argue that Cal has a better football culture than UCLA (they obviously have the edge in hoops). The argument that it is the'"the LA market" that is worth so much money misses the fact that half of Cal are kids from SoCal (and vice versa). For both Cal and UCLA the market is "California" not just the Bay Area or SoCal. Thus in terms of market power they are pretty even.
As it should probably, but would it scale to the existing B1G schools? Cal shouldn't be getting the same cut as OSU, but it should be getting a better cut than say Purdue or Iowa if they are prioritizing market value.
I'm 99.9% sure that will be the case, but I wonder if might come back to bite in the long-term. USC bailed on the Pac-12 because they felt entitled to a larger cut of pie, which as much as I would like to disagree with, they were probably entitled to. It just sets up some inequities that they may need to iron out later on for the sake of stability.
"However, the revenue those four teams could receive would still likely be far higher than the combined value of the 10 remaining Pac-12 schools together."
An important distinction. Second-class B1G is much richer than PAC drifter.
I've seen some people suggest that Warren is leaking this to drive down Pac-10 media rights value, which in turn allows the B1G to further discount the remaining Pac prospects' B1G revenue shares. The intent to keep the conference unstable definitely seems likely.
As a Big Ten alum, but also someone who wrote most of his MA thesis in the Stanford Library, I'd like to remind readers that the Big Ten is unlike other conferences because it is not just an athletic conference. All the schools are members of the Big Ten Academic Alliance (BTAA). Through the alliance, the schools do cooperative purchasing and licensing, collaborate on research programs, share courses and library resources, facilitate faculty networking and offer professional development programs. Together, they do about $9.8 billion in funded research. For the faculty and students, the alliance is an important reason for being a part of the Big Ten. This is why the conference is so adamant that members belong to the AAU (Nebraska had been at the time it was admitted and Notre Dame is always the exception to the rule).
While the athletic directors may be more open to adding non-AAU members, the university presidents, chancellors and faculty senates are intensely opposed to watering down the academic quality of the alliance. Uninformed writers will often suggest that the Big Ten is interested in schools such as Miami or Florida State that are not AAU members, but these folks have no idea of how the Big Ten operates. Also the Big Ten prefers to move slowly when considering new members because it takes time to integrate schools into the Alliance as well as the athletic conference. The more schools you bring in at the same time, the more difficult it is to integrate them into the system. Of course, when they are pushed to act quickly, such as in the case of USC and UCLA or earlier with Nebraska, they can. As for the new media contracts being negotiated by the Big Ten, I suspect the contracts will include clauses regarding how the addition of more schools would be handled.
Because Stanford, Berkeley, Oregon and Washington all have important academic connections with various of the Big Ten schools, there is more of a likelihood that the Big Ten presidents and chancellors would be receptive to adding them eventually to the Alliance and the Conference. Cal and Stanford need to pursue their academic connections with Big Ten presidents to build the case to join. In the interim, the fans in Palo Alto and Berkeley should start filling up the stadiums and arenas to show that their teams do have a strong, loyal following. Outside of the above mentioned PAC-12 schools, to my knowledge the only other universities of any interest to the Big Ten are Notre Dame (of course), Virginia and North Carolina. The latter two schools were approached back when Maryland joined the Big Ten, but preferred to stay with the ACC. Don't know if they now regret their decision.
By the way, Notre Dame plays in the Big Ten Hockey league and Johns Hopkins is an affiliate member whose lacrosse teams play in the league. Also former Big Ten member, Chicago remains affiliated with the Big Ten Academic Alliance. When you see the company that the Big Ten keeps, you can figure they might eventually want Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington to join them. Unfortunately, the other six PAC-12 schools had better have contingency plans should this happen.
Personally, I always have wished that the Big Ten and Pac-12 would follow the lead of the Ivy League and get out of Division 1. The two conferences could have still have had their champions play against each other in the Rose Bowl at the end of the year and forget about being part of the big money NFL minor league system. Alas, that's not happening.
Cal's blue is Hex 003262, MIchigan's blue is HEX: 00274C. Cal's gold is Hex FDB515, Michigan's gold is HEX: FFCB05. (These colors taken off the web site of each school). While close, they are different colors.
Screw Mack Brown. I was at Southern Miss for the game 'we didn't win by a large enough margin' to satisfy the moronic voters. Had that game been played as scheduled early in the season, we go to the Rose Bowl and had Mack Brown not been a prick we go.
I'm a Maryland grad that married into a University of California family 29 years ago. My son just graduated and he's 4th generation going back to 1916. I dearly love the University of California (I NEVER call it Berkeley just like I never call that school down south Los Angeles) and while the expansion may help Maryland, the damage to California is incredibly painful to me. I despise the Indianapolis Football Club as I was a Baltimore Colts season ticket holder. I despise Mike Krzyzewski from an incident that took place 38 years ago after a Maryland-Duke game at Cameron. Trust me, I know all about grudges.
“Personally, I always have wished that the Big Ten and Pac-12 would follow the lead of the Ivy League and get out of Division 1”
Time to join the rest of Cal students & alums who live on Planet Earth, Milky Way Galaxy. While living in your Land of Make Believe may have it's own merits for you, it does not have anything to do with the actual issues Cal must deal with going forward.
Thanks for your post. Yes, the BiG has long prided itself on AAU membership, but the rapidly growing state of Florida is hard to ignore (particularly for Fox Sports). Perhaps the Presidents might overlook such a requirement and lower the bar to R1 status to snag Florida State and Miami?
Florida State is a heavy hitting R1 school that has greatly improved its undergraduate academic reputation, especially in the last decade. I would argue that it is better than half of the Big 10 to start with. Miami is also a big grant pulling research university. Beyond symbolic membership in AAU, there is really no lowering of the bar.
I don't disagree that both are great Unis. But I think you mis-took my post. The BiG has their own bar -- AAU membership -- and to them, anything else is essentially lowering the bar.
I'm an alum of Cal (B.A.) and Northwestern (M.A.) so getting into the Big-10 just gives me one more reason to ignore my kids on Saturday. All kidding aside, I do hope that Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington all make it into the Big-10 to preserve some continuity and tradition from the soon to be extinct Pac-12. One question: What happens to the remaining teams in small TV markets? Do they just give up sports or join the Mountain West or Big Sky?
I would imagine you're referring to OSU and Wazzu, specifically. I doubt that either OSU or Wazzu would want to entertain the thought of no football team.
They might have a shot at the Big XII, but I'd think they'd be better fits for the Mountain West. Adding OSU and Wazzu would raise the MWC membership in football from 12 to 14.
I'm a cynic on these public pronouncements. Yeah, they have a 'short list', but I'd be big cyber-dollars that that list is really long. If the BiG (aka Fox Sports) could lock up other major markets to keep espn out, they'd do it. IMO this pronouncement is unserious. And note, teh Commish did not say Cal was on a short list, it was unknown, anonymous "Sources".....
Moreover, such a pronouncement (hopefully, for them) reduces the pressure on the Regents to twist UCLA's arm to funnel some $$ to Cal. If the Bruins have to cough up some sort of cash, that will hurt their competitiveness for a time, and that hurts the BiG brand.
Interesting that UVA and UNC are not on the short list, as they have been rumored targets for both the B1G and SEC for awhile now. FSU and Miami are new to me and a little more far flung alternatives. They feel like natural fits for the SEC. I could see UVA and UNC in either-at least culturally.
I wonder if the NC legislature would force UNC and NC State to be tied together. And I bet UNC would want to be tied together with Dook as rivals, similar to Cal and Furd.
What I don't understand is the incentive for B1G to wait on making offers. If they want the Pac, why give the conference time to shore things up and possibly lock schools in with a new media contract?
BIG is negotiating their TV contract with Fox right now. They're probably working to lock down what they can get for future expansion.
Meanwhile, ND's NBC home game contract ends 2025, and they are also in the middle of negotiations. Once ND gets a deal, they can decide which conference to join.
Pac-12's deal lasts through end of 2024, so no rush on that end. Also, any new contract is smaller than what the BIG can pay, so BIG can take their time.
Big-12's TV contract ends 2025, so no rush there either. SEC's contract is already locked down while the College Football Playoff contract is set till 2025, so any thoughts of playoff expansion can wait.
ACC contract is interesting - it lasts until 2036 and the grant of rights is legally airtight with massive financial penalties. Also, ND's deal with the ACC is that if they do join a conference, then it's the ACC only. However, if 8 teams leave, then the contract is suddenly gone as are the financial penalties for leaving.
We'll see no more action until Summer 2023. ND will have their new contract by then and can decide. I think Fox, ESPN, BIG, SEC, and Big-12 collude to split up the ACC by getting 8 teams to leave, allowing ND to join whoever after ND figures out their new NBC deal.
I think the secrecy was an important factor because other schools would have rightfully cried bloody murder about the departure. Now that it's happening, the B1G has better leverage and more time to see how things have developed.
Probably bcos any new Pac media contract will have a bunch of loopholes, and buyouts. No way Oregon and U-Dub will lock themselves into the Pac (and therefore out of the BiG) for any length of time. They see what a long-term GOR has done to the ACC members.
For Cal and Stanf*rd there is no obviously competitive alternative to the B1G. Every other alternative pales in comparison.
Big XII is just a shadow of the B1G in terms of clout and TV sets. It's also a geographical challenge.
For the B1G, admitting USC and UCLA to the conference is like staking a claim to Pac-12 schools and being able to pick and choose the ones that are most advantageous to the B1G. I'm also not convinced that the B1G isn't looking at the Phoenix market (Arizona State) because it is the 11th largest US media market with 2,158,240 TV homes just ahead of Seattle-Tacoma with 2,098,800 TV homes. The Portland, OR market is #21 w/ 1,315,470 TV homes. Denver, CO is #16 w/ 1,798,440 TV homes.
I'm sure they're not tipping their hand re: Phoenix due to Big XII's interest. But adding the Arizona schools will give the LA teams games within driving distance and also squish Big XII between B1G and SEC territory, keeping Big XII a 2nd tier conference. I think Big XII feels like a more natural fit for the Arizonas but money makes everything more attractive.
And fully agree that the LA schools were the beachhead. Just not sure why they don't press their advantage immediately.
Every school currently in the conference is a member of this organization, except Nebraska which was in at the time of admission.
Part of this is prestige, but I think also some of this is that they share research grant money across institutions and they want access to that too (could be wrong about that part).
Ah good point. Notre Dame isn't an AAU member either but I think there's a good case for an exemption based on academic reputation. And Nebraska was one but they got kicked out. Medical schools are a major stumbling block but I'm not sure Notre Dame can even have one (IU has a branch in South Bend that has a partnership with Notre Dame).
Notre Dame is coveted bucket list away game. I'm going with a group of 7, expect to see other familiar faces there too. I went to the Cal games at IL (2!), Ohio State, Northwestern, and MD, all of which were a good time (except MD heat). I'd been hoping for Cal at Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska before all the conference realignment. Remember also that if Cal gets in, we'd likely be with the core Pac 6, so at least several games in the west every year still.
There were definitely at least a few thousand, and probably more there. Cal will show well at probably most the stadiums (not Iowa, Iowa St, Nebraska). Remember, there are a lot of alums living in the midwest and east coast that will go to lots of games at Big-10 stadiums because they probably haven't gone to many Cal games recently. Maybe not Iowa State, Nebraska,
The Cal sections at Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, and maybe UNC were full. Also had a good showing at TCU last year.
UCLA and USC are immediately Full members.
https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/2022/07/usc-ucla-will-receive-full-big-ten-revenue-share-before-rutgers-heres-why.html
Avi, could a quiet "settlement" between Cal and UCLA be UCLA pushing for Cal's inclusion into the B!G?
Cal aint going to the big ten! Washington, Oregon, and even Stanford will beat them out. Cal is far from a football school, and they should be talking to the big 12, or the wac!
You funny. You maybe gone to one a those fly over schools?
Let's not have it seem like the Big Ten is some paragon of academic excellence that would be kind to accept the poor crumb eaters of Cal and Stanford. Or UW. Truth is that the BIG would be damn lucky and improved in academic reputation by adding two of the top schools in the nation. Cal as the top public school, surpassing any of the BIG, and Stanfurd as a top private. We may be a second tier football school, admittedly, but let's never hang our heads about our international reputation for being a WORLD leading university! Fiat Lux!
The Big Ten universities are presently managing almost $10 billion in research funds. That’s about ten times whatever the next media contract will earn. Plus the media rights are primarily used in the athletic departments and have little direct benefit for the academic interests of the universities. Florida is an AAU school, but in my wildest dreams I can’t imagine the Big Ten wanting FSU or Miami. As I previously wrote, the Big Ten is run by people who put academics first. They aren’t going to lower their standards just so the athletic departments have more money to spend. The SEC is a far different animal, so they may be interested in FSU and Miami, but not the Big Ten. The Big Ten Commissioner never mentioned these schools. It was a reporter who proposed them as possible candidates.
SOON
https://twitter.com/Dalmcm/status/1544382634913976320?
No way Oregon & Washington sign onto the Big XII until the BiG says, 'no-way, no-how, never-gonna-happen' to them. And if Wilner's media analysis is close, the Four Corners schools can do better financially in the remaining Pac10, not to mention keeping recruiting contacts.
Dear baby Oski in his golden baby diapers let this be true!
To hell with B1G. Our fanbase has been running on the fumes of the peak Tedford years for well over a decade. At least with SonnyD we had some exciting shoot outs to keep things interesting, even if we were mediocre overall. Now with Wilcox we get boring "B1G-style" football while still being mediocre.
Moving to the B1G means we will forever be a basement dweller. There is no chance we stay remotely competitive in a "Western B1G" division that consists of the CA schools plus UO and W. And the east-west travel bias means the eastern division/teams would hold an unfair advantage even in the very rare case we make a run for a conference title. The extra TV revenue means little when every other school in the conference is getting the same money (in terms of competitiveness at least, stadium debt is another thing). And I wouldn't put it past the B1G to eventually adjust the revenue allocations towards the more successful schools, putting us in an even bigger competitive disadvantage.
At least with the Pac-12(10) we could dream of the occasional run at the conference championship. All we need right now is to field a respectable team, catch the conference in a down year, and catch a few lucky breaks. If we can string a few seasons like that together, that could be enough to get fan engagement back up again and start filling the stadium. I suspect a move to the B1G means we are going to be eternally doomed to watching our team struggle year in and year out, memorial stadium filled with opposing teams fans, and the slow asphyxiation of what is left of our fanbase. But hey, at least we will have paid off the stadium.
We are capable of some sustained good teams. Here's the Tedford regular season against Power 5 away/home - we did just fine East/West.
2002 @ Michigan State W 46-22
2003 @ Kansas St L 28-42
2003 @ Illinois W 35-24
2006 @ Tennessee L 18-35
2008 @ Maryland L 27-35
2009 @ Minnesota W 35-21
2012 @ Ohio State L 28-35
---
3-4
2002 Baylor W 70-22
2005 Illinois W 35-20
2006 Minnesota W 42-17
2007 Tennessee W 45-31
2008 Michigan State W 38-31
2009 Maryland W 52-13
2010 Colorado W 52-7
---
8-0
3-4 away and 8-0 at home. Even Sonny Dykes was 2-0 away and 1-2 at home.
We can get to bowls regularly with that kind of success I think. Might not be earth-shattering but I'm not scared of it.
I don't see any reason to think our competitive results would be much different in the B1G than they were in the Pac-10/12. Remember, the B1G is not just Ohio State and Michigan. It's also Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana.
Our competitive results have not been great in the last decade. So if what you are saying is that we will go from being mediocre in the PAC-12 to also being mediocre in the B1G, then I would agree with you. But what I am saying is that unlike in the PAC-12, our chance of making an occasional run at the conference championship would be pretty much nill. At least in the PAC-12. we can imagine a scenario where it happens (and we had the pieces in place a few times this past decade, but just didn't get those lucky bounces).
The B1G is aiming to be a super conference. By definition, that is going to result in more teams, and higher quality teams to boot. We can barely break through in a mediocre P5 conference. We won't stand a chance in a super conference. I could see a few academic rivalries forming which could be fun. But I am not sure that will be enough excitement for our fans if we end up as perennial bottom dwellers.
Id rather be mediocre in the B1G and get 60 million a year than be mediocre in the PAC and get 30. This is just self preservation at this point
Yes, I'm saying that Cal would have about the same record in such a conference that it always had in the Pac-10/12. That includes the recent mediocre seasons, the good Tedford seasons, and the awful Holmoe or Dykes years. Cal would still rise and fall based on its own performance just as it always has.
I'm guessing it's speculation as to a potential schedule where the west coast teams will play each other every season no matter what - so in that hypothetical, Cal plays 3 non-conference teams, plays the 5 West Coast teams every season, and that leaves 4 games against the rest of the BIG schools each year.
So Cal versus Stanfurd, Oregon, UW, UCLA, USC, or 5 teams we have always played every season (except 2020) - that's not easy as any given season, at least 2 of those 5 teams are really good, and we can't expect to play Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana every year for the 4 non-West Coast BIG games.
Exactly this. Essentially we would be replacing the "easy" part of our current conference schedule (WSU, OSU, and two of the four four corner schools) with two away games that involve traveling a few timezones east (with its known bias performance bias against west coast teams) as well as a much higher average level of competition on a per team basis.
In any given season, the bulk of our conference wins come from that part of our schedule. We can barely get into bowl games as is. I feel like a move to the B1G means just getting into a bowl game becomes our new "Rose Bowl before I die!". Not something I would be excited about as a fan.
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a bowl game each season - once the realignment carousel stops, the bowl games will revise who plays who and if the BIG is 20 teams deep at that point, expect at least 10-12 bowl game affiliations and assuming 2-3 teams are in the playoffs (which will be expanded after 2025 when the current contract runs out), that's 14-15 of 20 BIG teams going bowling if they just have at least 6 wins.
So I wouldn't be so down on Cal's chances of going to a bowl game. With the leverage of the BIG and since Cal does travel decently, all you need is 6 wins, so that's beating all 3 non-conference teams, win 2 of the 5 on the West Coast, and just 1 of the 4 non-West Coast BIG teams. With Wilcox's defense-first, ball control offense, this is doable, especially if we get a QB that avoids turnovers. Might be a little boring, but my heart can't take anymore Cardiac Cal teams (like the Sonny Dykes squads).
As for a Rose Bowl appearance? That's long gone. With the NIL and this realignment, it's all going to come down to whichever fan base is willing to spend the most money and I would like to think our fanbase is not that dumb to throw money away on something that is ultimately meaningless.
Personally, I agree with you, but no one gives a shit what we think unless we donate tens of millions of dollars each year.
Cal's stadium debt exceeds $400 million. Any potential Pac-12 TV contract will get Cal maybe $30 million a year, while even a second-tier BIG TV contract payout will likely be double that (possibly triple if it's even payouts).
It's a no-brainer for the bean-counters that are ultimately in charge of this sort of thing.
So you're we could have nice things like a full stadium if CAL goes to B1G...?
"year in and year out, memorial stadium filled"
So SEC does not have any school in the top 6 media markets (I believe aTm is in Houston market not Dallas-FW), and only 2 in the top 10 (Atlanta and Houston). They can generate that much money on football alone. I'm just impressed. Those in the SEC region can be so passionate about college football teams that they didn't even attend. That will never happen in California (or any other parts of the country).
Nope.
CBS article just posted on the matter: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-evaluating-cal-oregon-stanford-and-washington-from-pac-12-as-further-expansion-considered/
A major point made is that while all four schools are being considered, they're viewed more as necessary measures that won't carry as much value. There's the possibility (likelihood?) that any deal would result in us four taking lower revenue shares than other members of the B1G. You have to think Cal is a major source of that consideration, but at least we're being included.
I would argue that Cal has a better football culture than UCLA (they obviously have the edge in hoops). The argument that it is the'"the LA market" that is worth so much money misses the fact that half of Cal are kids from SoCal (and vice versa). For both Cal and UCLA the market is "California" not just the Bay Area or SoCal. Thus in terms of market power they are pretty even.
I hope there's some sort of incentive system to unlock a larger share.
As it should probably, but would it scale to the existing B1G schools? Cal shouldn't be getting the same cut as OSU, but it should be getting a better cut than say Purdue or Iowa if they are prioritizing market value.
I bet all original 10 schools get the same amount. Probably even the newer ones, though I thought I read Rutgers or Nebraska gets less.
I'm 99.9% sure that will be the case, but I wonder if might come back to bite in the long-term. USC bailed on the Pac-12 because they felt entitled to a larger cut of pie, which as much as I would like to disagree with, they were probably entitled to. It just sets up some inequities that they may need to iron out later on for the sake of stability.
"However, the revenue those four teams could receive would still likely be far higher than the combined value of the 10 remaining Pac-12 schools together."
An important distinction. Second-class B1G is much richer than PAC drifter.
I've seen some people suggest that Warren is leaking this to drive down Pac-10 media rights value, which in turn allows the B1G to further discount the remaining Pac prospects' B1G revenue shares. The intent to keep the conference unstable definitely seems likely.
As a Big Ten alum, but also someone who wrote most of his MA thesis in the Stanford Library, I'd like to remind readers that the Big Ten is unlike other conferences because it is not just an athletic conference. All the schools are members of the Big Ten Academic Alliance (BTAA). Through the alliance, the schools do cooperative purchasing and licensing, collaborate on research programs, share courses and library resources, facilitate faculty networking and offer professional development programs. Together, they do about $9.8 billion in funded research. For the faculty and students, the alliance is an important reason for being a part of the Big Ten. This is why the conference is so adamant that members belong to the AAU (Nebraska had been at the time it was admitted and Notre Dame is always the exception to the rule).
While the athletic directors may be more open to adding non-AAU members, the university presidents, chancellors and faculty senates are intensely opposed to watering down the academic quality of the alliance. Uninformed writers will often suggest that the Big Ten is interested in schools such as Miami or Florida State that are not AAU members, but these folks have no idea of how the Big Ten operates. Also the Big Ten prefers to move slowly when considering new members because it takes time to integrate schools into the Alliance as well as the athletic conference. The more schools you bring in at the same time, the more difficult it is to integrate them into the system. Of course, when they are pushed to act quickly, such as in the case of USC and UCLA or earlier with Nebraska, they can. As for the new media contracts being negotiated by the Big Ten, I suspect the contracts will include clauses regarding how the addition of more schools would be handled.
Because Stanford, Berkeley, Oregon and Washington all have important academic connections with various of the Big Ten schools, there is more of a likelihood that the Big Ten presidents and chancellors would be receptive to adding them eventually to the Alliance and the Conference. Cal and Stanford need to pursue their academic connections with Big Ten presidents to build the case to join. In the interim, the fans in Palo Alto and Berkeley should start filling up the stadiums and arenas to show that their teams do have a strong, loyal following. Outside of the above mentioned PAC-12 schools, to my knowledge the only other universities of any interest to the Big Ten are Notre Dame (of course), Virginia and North Carolina. The latter two schools were approached back when Maryland joined the Big Ten, but preferred to stay with the ACC. Don't know if they now regret their decision.
By the way, Notre Dame plays in the Big Ten Hockey league and Johns Hopkins is an affiliate member whose lacrosse teams play in the league. Also former Big Ten member, Chicago remains affiliated with the Big Ten Academic Alliance. When you see the company that the Big Ten keeps, you can figure they might eventually want Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington to join them. Unfortunately, the other six PAC-12 schools had better have contingency plans should this happen.
Personally, I always have wished that the Big Ten and Pac-12 would follow the lead of the Ivy League and get out of Division 1. The two conferences could have still have had their champions play against each other in the Rose Bowl at the end of the year and forget about being part of the big money NFL minor league system. Alas, that's not happening.
Michigan's gonna have to change their colors when we join. This is non-negotiable.
Cal's blue is Hex 003262, MIchigan's blue is HEX: 00274C. Cal's gold is Hex FDB515, Michigan's gold is HEX: FFCB05. (These colors taken off the web site of each school). While close, they are different colors.
I was at the Rose Bowl we got screwed out of. Definitely know Cal blue is close enough to blend. :)
Screw Mack Brown. I was at Southern Miss for the game 'we didn't win by a large enough margin' to satisfy the moronic voters. Had that game been played as scheduled early in the season, we go to the Rose Bowl and had Mack Brown not been a prick we go.
Mack Brown was when I learned I could hold a grudge.
Mack Brown is the devil
I'm a Maryland grad that married into a University of California family 29 years ago. My son just graduated and he's 4th generation going back to 1916. I dearly love the University of California (I NEVER call it Berkeley just like I never call that school down south Los Angeles) and while the expansion may help Maryland, the damage to California is incredibly painful to me. I despise the Indianapolis Football Club as I was a Baltimore Colts season ticket holder. I despise Mike Krzyzewski from an incident that took place 38 years ago after a Maryland-Duke game at Cameron. Trust me, I know all about grudges.
“Personally, I always have wished that the Big Ten and Pac-12 would follow the lead of the Ivy League and get out of Division 1”
Time to join the rest of Cal students & alums who live on Planet Earth, Milky Way Galaxy. While living in your Land of Make Believe may have it's own merits for you, it does not have anything to do with the actual issues Cal must deal with going forward.
Thanks for your post. Yes, the BiG has long prided itself on AAU membership, but the rapidly growing state of Florida is hard to ignore (particularly for Fox Sports). Perhaps the Presidents might overlook such a requirement and lower the bar to R1 status to snag Florida State and Miami?
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/big-ten-commissioner-kevin-warren-possible-expansion-college-football-playoff-more?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy
Florida State is a heavy hitting R1 school that has greatly improved its undergraduate academic reputation, especially in the last decade. I would argue that it is better than half of the Big 10 to start with. Miami is also a big grant pulling research university. Beyond symbolic membership in AAU, there is really no lowering of the bar.
I don't disagree that both are great Unis. But I think you mis-took my post. The BiG has their own bar -- AAU membership -- and to them, anything else is essentially lowering the bar.
Then why not Arizona too?
Eyeballs (and time zones).
I'm an alum of Cal (B.A.) and Northwestern (M.A.) so getting into the Big-10 just gives me one more reason to ignore my kids on Saturday. All kidding aside, I do hope that Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington all make it into the Big-10 to preserve some continuity and tradition from the soon to be extinct Pac-12. One question: What happens to the remaining teams in small TV markets? Do they just give up sports or join the Mountain West or Big Sky?
They can go to Big 12
or mountain west
I would imagine you're referring to OSU and Wazzu, specifically. I doubt that either OSU or Wazzu would want to entertain the thought of no football team.
They might have a shot at the Big XII, but I'd think they'd be better fits for the Mountain West. Adding OSU and Wazzu would raise the MWC membership in football from 12 to 14.
Thanks for the well thought - out opinion.
Very important information and perspective.
Thanks for this.
I am an alum of Cal and Wisconsin...thank you for the perspective
This is a great perspective from the B1G point of view.
I'm a cynic on these public pronouncements. Yeah, they have a 'short list', but I'd be big cyber-dollars that that list is really long. If the BiG (aka Fox Sports) could lock up other major markets to keep espn out, they'd do it. IMO this pronouncement is unserious. And note, teh Commish did not say Cal was on a short list, it was unknown, anonymous "Sources".....
Moreover, such a pronouncement (hopefully, for them) reduces the pressure on the Regents to twist UCLA's arm to funnel some $$ to Cal. If the Bruins have to cough up some sort of cash, that will hurt their competitiveness for a time, and that hurts the BiG brand.
Interesting that UVA and UNC are not on the short list, as they have been rumored targets for both the B1G and SEC for awhile now. FSU and Miami are new to me and a little more far flung alternatives. They feel like natural fits for the SEC. I could see UVA and UNC in either-at least culturally.
I wonder if the NC legislature would force UNC and NC State to be tied together. And I bet UNC would want to be tied together with Dook as rivals, similar to Cal and Furd.
For sure.
What I don't understand is the incentive for B1G to wait on making offers. If they want the Pac, why give the conference time to shore things up and possibly lock schools in with a new media contract?
BIG is negotiating their TV contract with Fox right now. They're probably working to lock down what they can get for future expansion.
Meanwhile, ND's NBC home game contract ends 2025, and they are also in the middle of negotiations. Once ND gets a deal, they can decide which conference to join.
Pac-12's deal lasts through end of 2024, so no rush on that end. Also, any new contract is smaller than what the BIG can pay, so BIG can take their time.
Big-12's TV contract ends 2025, so no rush there either. SEC's contract is already locked down while the College Football Playoff contract is set till 2025, so any thoughts of playoff expansion can wait.
ACC contract is interesting - it lasts until 2036 and the grant of rights is legally airtight with massive financial penalties. Also, ND's deal with the ACC is that if they do join a conference, then it's the ACC only. However, if 8 teams leave, then the contract is suddenly gone as are the financial penalties for leaving.
We'll see no more action until Summer 2023. ND will have their new contract by then and can decide. I think Fox, ESPN, BIG, SEC, and Big-12 collude to split up the ACC by getting 8 teams to leave, allowing ND to join whoever after ND figures out their new NBC deal.
I think the secrecy was an important factor because other schools would have rightfully cried bloody murder about the departure. Now that it's happening, the B1G has better leverage and more time to see how things have developed.
Probably bcos any new Pac media contract will have a bunch of loopholes, and buyouts. No way Oregon and U-Dub will lock themselves into the Pac (and therefore out of the BiG) for any length of time. They see what a long-term GOR has done to the ACC members.
For Cal and Stanf*rd there is no obviously competitive alternative to the B1G. Every other alternative pales in comparison.
Big XII is just a shadow of the B1G in terms of clout and TV sets. It's also a geographical challenge.
For the B1G, admitting USC and UCLA to the conference is like staking a claim to Pac-12 schools and being able to pick and choose the ones that are most advantageous to the B1G. I'm also not convinced that the B1G isn't looking at the Phoenix market (Arizona State) because it is the 11th largest US media market with 2,158,240 TV homes just ahead of Seattle-Tacoma with 2,098,800 TV homes. The Portland, OR market is #21 w/ 1,315,470 TV homes. Denver, CO is #16 w/ 1,798,440 TV homes.
I'm sure they're not tipping their hand re: Phoenix due to Big XII's interest. But adding the Arizona schools will give the LA teams games within driving distance and also squish Big XII between B1G and SEC territory, keeping Big XII a 2nd tier conference. I think Big XII feels like a more natural fit for the Arizonas but money makes everything more attractive.
And fully agree that the LA schools were the beachhead. Just not sure why they don't press their advantage immediately.
ASU is not an AAU school (nor OSU or WSU) so they can't go to the Big-10.
Can you expound on this a bit? I'm not familiar with this aspect. Thanks.
Historically the B1G has wanted member schools to be part of the Association of American Universities:
https://www.aau.edu/
Every school currently in the conference is a member of this organization, except Nebraska which was in at the time of admission.
Part of this is prestige, but I think also some of this is that they share research grant money across institutions and they want access to that too (could be wrong about that part).
Thx! ANOTHER wrinkle, but maybe one in our favor!
Ah good point. Notre Dame isn't an AAU member either but I think there's a good case for an exemption based on academic reputation. And Nebraska was one but they got kicked out. Medical schools are a major stumbling block but I'm not sure Notre Dame can even have one (IU has a branch in South Bend that has a partnership with Notre Dame).
ND is pretty highly rated for undergrad education I think. It's just not really a major research school so wouldn't be in AAU.
ASU doesn't have the same argument.
Good question. I suppose Notre Dame's answer is the linchpin for any deal.
United flies direct from SFO to CMH.
And there is no direct flight to MKE.
Notre Dame is coveted bucket list away game. I'm going with a group of 7, expect to see other familiar faces there too. I went to the Cal games at IL (2!), Ohio State, Northwestern, and MD, all of which were a good time (except MD heat). I'd been hoping for Cal at Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska before all the conference realignment. Remember also that if Cal gets in, we'd likely be with the core Pac 6, so at least several games in the west every year still.
Here's a video of Cal fans celebrating the victory at Northwestern. Looks like a pretty respectable showing
https://youtu.be/f6U7hw_hYro
There were definitely at least a few thousand, and probably more there. Cal will show well at probably most the stadiums (not Iowa, Iowa St, Nebraska). Remember, there are a lot of alums living in the midwest and east coast that will go to lots of games at Big-10 stadiums because they probably haven't gone to many Cal games recently. Maybe not Iowa State, Nebraska,
The Cal sections at Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, and maybe UNC were full. Also had a good showing at TCU last year.
Couple hundred, at ND? I'd guess more like 3-4000 or more. It's a bucket place game for most fans. There were 10K at Ole Miss.