Big Ten commissioner indicates expansion might not be done, Cal reportedly on shortlist
The Bears may be in the Big Ten soon. Just not now.
Big Ten expansion appears to have taken a pause for 2022, but all comments seem to indicate that USC and UCLA’s move out Midwest is only the first step of many. And if conference leadership has their way, Cal is very much in the mix for future consideration.
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren spoke candidly on expansion and indicated a significant list of candidates, including the California Golden Bears.
With Notre Dame seeming to be waiting on the best possible TV deal before making a decision and the season rapidly approaching, Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal will likely not know about where they stand until 2023. The names of Florida State and Miami are new (although not surprising), but the ACC Grant of Rights will make it difficult for them to extract themselves this decade.
We’ve talked ad nauseum about Cal’s case for the Big Ten on this site the last month, so we’ll give the cliff notes summary.
Market: The Big Ten now holds universities in the top four American markets of Los Angeles (UCLA/USC), Chicago (Northwestern/Illinois, but also the largest Big Ten alumni haven), New York (Rutgers) and Philadelphia (Penn State), as well as the seventh in Washington D.C. (Maryland). The Bay Area is the sixth largest market overall. Adding Cal and Stanford makes the Big Ten the most nationally powerful conference from a TV revenue perspective for Fox and the Big Ten Network, which could only be countered by the fanatical powerhouses in the SEC.
Academics: Just like the Pac-12, the Big Ten does care about this thing that we’re all supposed to kind of care about. Even if they don’t pack the punch of USC and UCLA, bringing the top two academic programs into the Power 5, some of the largest research institutions in the nation, as well as the best public university on the planet in UC Berkeley, provides a level of prestige that will be tough to assail. Rich Eisen made this point earlier this week—prestige and brand matters.
Big Ten Bay Area alumni contingents are formidable: There are huge contingents of alumni from the Midwest settled in the Bay, only rivaled by the other four major cities. One only has to grab footage of the 2013 Cal-Ohio State game to see that this could actually bolster ticket sales in a way relying on Cal and Stanford fans might not have been sustainable at this time.
The Pac-12 After Dark inventory speaks for itself: The late night time slots are very attractive to TV executives, as there are no premiere game slots from the SEC or other major bluebloods to compete with. The numbers indicate these Pac-12 games can draw eyeballs if they mean something. Locking down some extra TV inventory with more Pac-12 programs can give Fox and the Big Ten Network 13 hours of unlimited programming.
UCLA and USC will eventually want their Pacific Coast rivals: UCLA and USC had to go first to get the ball rolling, but already we’ve heard plenty of grumblings from down south about the logistical pains of their current setup, which would have Bruins and Trojans athletes, fans, and donors booking cross-country trips for half the year. Eventually you’d have to guess USC and UCLA will be calling for Cal and Stanford for some local relief—there isn’t really a path for long-term college football success with the Trojans and Bruins making trips to Camp Randall or Happy Valley in 30 degree weather in November, or being chased out of their own stadiums by the local Big Ten alumni contingents.
Plus we’ve already talked about the financial impact UCLA leaving Cal behind could have on the state government. Bringing the Bears into the B1G solves a lot of logistical headaches.
Let's not have it seem like the Big Ten is some paragon of academic excellence that would be kind to accept the poor crumb eaters of Cal and Stanford. Or UW. Truth is that the BIG would be damn lucky and improved in academic reputation by adding two of the top schools in the nation. Cal as the top public school, surpassing any of the BIG, and Stanfurd as a top private. We may be a second tier football school, admittedly, but let's never hang our heads about our international reputation for being a WORLD leading university! Fiat Lux!
As a Big Ten alum, but also someone who wrote most of his MA thesis in the Stanford Library, I'd like to remind readers that the Big Ten is unlike other conferences because it is not just an athletic conference. All the schools are members of the Big Ten Academic Alliance (BTAA). Through the alliance, the schools do cooperative purchasing and licensing, collaborate on research programs, share courses and library resources, facilitate faculty networking and offer professional development programs. Together, they do about $9.8 billion in funded research. For the faculty and students, the alliance is an important reason for being a part of the Big Ten. This is why the conference is so adamant that members belong to the AAU (Nebraska had been at the time it was admitted and Notre Dame is always the exception to the rule).
While the athletic directors may be more open to adding non-AAU members, the university presidents, chancellors and faculty senates are intensely opposed to watering down the academic quality of the alliance. Uninformed writers will often suggest that the Big Ten is interested in schools such as Miami or Florida State that are not AAU members, but these folks have no idea of how the Big Ten operates. Also the Big Ten prefers to move slowly when considering new members because it takes time to integrate schools into the Alliance as well as the athletic conference. The more schools you bring in at the same time, the more difficult it is to integrate them into the system. Of course, when they are pushed to act quickly, such as in the case of USC and UCLA or earlier with Nebraska, they can. As for the new media contracts being negotiated by the Big Ten, I suspect the contracts will include clauses regarding how the addition of more schools would be handled.
Because Stanford, Berkeley, Oregon and Washington all have important academic connections with various of the Big Ten schools, there is more of a likelihood that the Big Ten presidents and chancellors would be receptive to adding them eventually to the Alliance and the Conference. Cal and Stanford need to pursue their academic connections with Big Ten presidents to build the case to join. In the interim, the fans in Palo Alto and Berkeley should start filling up the stadiums and arenas to show that their teams do have a strong, loyal following. Outside of the above mentioned PAC-12 schools, to my knowledge the only other universities of any interest to the Big Ten are Notre Dame (of course), Virginia and North Carolina. The latter two schools were approached back when Maryland joined the Big Ten, but preferred to stay with the ACC. Don't know if they now regret their decision.
By the way, Notre Dame plays in the Big Ten Hockey league and Johns Hopkins is an affiliate member whose lacrosse teams play in the league. Also former Big Ten member, Chicago remains affiliated with the Big Ten Academic Alliance. When you see the company that the Big Ten keeps, you can figure they might eventually want Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington to join them. Unfortunately, the other six PAC-12 schools had better have contingency plans should this happen.
Personally, I always have wished that the Big Ten and Pac-12 would follow the lead of the Ivy League and get out of Division 1. The two conferences could have still have had their champions play against each other in the Rose Bowl at the end of the year and forget about being part of the big money NFL minor league system. Alas, that's not happening.