College football realignment in stasis: The fate of Cal depends on Notre Dame and the Big Ten
The Irish, Ducks, and Huskies are likely the next dominos to fall, with the Big 12 and SEC looming in the wings.
A lot of dominoes will likely have to fall before we know where the California Golden Bears up in the next era of college football.
Let’s walk through some of the latest updates.
The FOX says, “Realign”
With USC and UCLA’s bags packed for the Big Ten, we’ve hit the uneasy lull of waiting for the next move. A few more details have opened up.
It is sounding more and more like FOX has been operating behind the scenes in this latest round of college football realignment to bolster their new TV deal with the Big Ten, and an entirely new leadership group in USC was happy to tag along.
It sounds like the Pac-12 (and the ACC) turning down a suggested playoff format earlier this year that would’ve assured the conference and its members at least a billion dollars a year and a guaranteed playoff spot for each Power 5 conference was the final straw for USC leadership. Once again, Pac-12 members were concerned with fairness and the SEC/B1G likely always being favored to earn the extra at-large playoff spot, missing the bigger picture of an annual tripling of their revenue.
Sick of bad decision after bad decision by their conference leaders, as well as decades of grumbling about equal revenue sharing with partners in smaller markets within the Pac, the Trojans had been plotting an exit for some time. Along with FOX Sports (which has tons of Trojan alum in their executive grooup, including most famously Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush), the Trojans began researching a move last year, culminating in Thursday’s departure.
UCLA sounds like they were brought in a little later into the whole plot, but that was likely to (1) placate USC donors uneasy at leaving the entire conference behind, (2) ensure a USC-UCLA game that is still one of the highest rated college football games every year, and most importantly (3) make sure FOX can negotiate an even higher carriage rate in Los Angeles to boost their revenue margin and capture the large USC/UCLA alum fanbase throughout the City of Angels. Obviously the move satisfies UCLA’s problem of paying debt, but they were likely the secondary brand here.
FOX now stands—temporarily—as the kings of college football. They now hold the majority of the big TV markets in this country with Rutgers (NYC), Maryland (DC), Penn State (Philadelphia), most of the B1G (Midwest cities), and USC/UCLA (Los Angeles). They will likely negotiate a new TV deal with the Big Ten in 2024 that’ll catapult them past ESPN’s deal with the SEC. It is also likely to boost the Big Ten Network past the SEC Network as the dominant national conference TV carrier.
ESPN will have to figure out their next moves to avoid running second fiddle to FOX, who will now have the cachet to bid on future rights for the College Football Playoff.
All eyes on the Irish
The Big Ten has likely prioritized Notre Dame as its next target in expansion. Once that decision is made, it’s likely we’ll see a host of other decisions occur in rapid succession.
The online rumor mill seems to indicate USC is pushing hard to bring their archrivals into the fold. A likely driving factor for FOX in pushing USC into the B1G was the golden goose of landing Notre Dame football games. USC being in the B1G makes this pitch easier.
Bringing the Irish into the B1G would make it THE superconference in terms of fan support, TV market consolidation (Notre Dame is the only team in major sports with a national TV contract), and media rights.
That being said, there’s still a lot that the Irish would have to give up. What’s blocking Notre Dame from likely joining are (1) the current floating independent status they enjoy due to their national TV contract with NBC, and (2) an existing scheduling agreement with the ACC that would likely require a significant exit fee.
That being said, the growing media and revenue deal from the Big Ten might be too much to pass up this time. And now Notre Dame’s two biggest rivals—Michigan and USC—are in the same conference.
Notre Dame still has the ability to play by its own set of rules though. We’ll see if they’re willing to sacrifice independence for assimilation.
Never thought I’d stand side-by-side with a Duck.
What about standing side-by-side with a Husky?
This has left the next two Pac-12 programs, Oregon and Washington, waiting on pins and needles, as they are rumored to be the Big Ten’s next two potential realignment candidates out West. Oregon and Washington have made overtures, but it all depends on Notre Dame.
Washington football is historically the second most modern successful program in the Pac-12. Oregon obviously has the hottest brand in the conference and is the closest thing the conference has to a national rep with the Trojans languishing the last decade-plus. And it’s not likely Phil Knight will let the Ducks just wither on the pine.
These are the two programs who the Big Ten would almost certainly be interested in capturing if they were to go for another round of Pac-12 poaching. But it is curious that those overtures weren’t made early, meaning they are secondary targets.
The Big Ten might also be interested in running down south and grabbing Duke and North Carolina—even if basketball is the second sport by a mile, Duke-UNC is too hot a rivalry to pass up. And there is Clemson, Florida State and Miami, all major programs with big brands or big markets, but there would be issues with the lack of AAU accreditation status.
All the cards are on the Big Ten’s side though. After Notre Dame, they (with likely some prodding from Fox) get to pick and choose who comes next, or can decide to stand pat.
Cal is on the sidelines, for now
The Pac-12 has responded with a statement that has all the confidence of a hostage note.
Most of the rest of the conference has issued their own set of statements regarding the move. Here is Cal’s.
The Big 12 seems to be waiting as well.
Basically, a LOT has to happen before we can even get to Cal’s place in the equation.
As I’ve said before, Cal should push HARD to get into the Big Ten. It is a natural fit from an athletic and academic perspective, the best economic option, it preserves longstanding rivalries, and it ensures that we can pay off our operational debts.
But in terms of the pecking order, we will likely be waiting awhile.
Larry Scott was the Chesa Boudin of collegiate athletics.
Some, but not many, have raised the student-athlete experience with a B1G entry. I don’t feel a Cal admission into the B1G is good. Perhaps the stadium debt could be paid off faster but other than that I don’t see this as a positive for those involved.
Obviously this is a bad situation for Cal, Oregon State, and Wazzu. Arizona and Arizona State likely seek refuge with the BIG12. Furd won’t allow NIL pools and may not be interested in subjecting their student-athletes to the rigors of travel to B1G games. Colorado and Utah could go BIG12 as well.
Let’s assume Oregon and Washington do get invited into the B1G. That would leave Cal, Oregon State, and Wazzu to fend for themselves (Furd likely gives up on football to focus on Olympic sports). So, the remaining 3 should go to the Mountain West if, in fact, they want to retain football. I’m fine with that and it could be an entertaining brand of football. It would be better for our student-athletes in terms of travel while still providing a sport to play as opposed to none.
The reality of these “super conferences” won’t change the landscape of college football as it currently exist: 4 – 6 teams will continue to dominate the game. NIL will allow a select few teams to creep into the top given their NIL pools e.g. aTm. Either way, Cal currently or in the future would never be able to compete under this new college football paradigm.
On the other hand, should Cal want to be relevant and ACTUALLY want to be part of the B1G then the first step is to beat ND, in the fall, then at minimum play in the conference championship. Even with that success, I would not be a supporter of Cal joining the B1G, if invited.
It is possible that should Oregon and Washington be added to the B1G that the B1G could simply monopolize the PAC12 and invite all teams in the PAC12 making a western division of the B1G. But there isn’t an incentive to do so given they have already captured the LA media market.
My preference, go to the MWC or create a new conference with select MWC teams. Cal shouldn’t go to the B1G, which isn’t much of a concern now given the low probability that they would even be considered.