Most of the Big 12 wouldn't fit in the power 2, so it makes sense that they'd make a play for the "corner" schools to increase their survival chances. I think the corner schools must be kept, because UDub, Oregon, Stanford and Cal really have only one potential suitor, because the SEC can expand without significantly changing its geographic footprint. If the Big 10 wanted any of these schools, now is the time, because of the media contracts. They are in no hurry.
Regardless,this next year is an audition year. Cal has to show up.
CAL Athletics can survive without the big 10 but in all reality the big 10 is jonezing for a piece of the bay area huge tv and recruiting market so when the big 10 smoke settles CAL should should jump ship and join the big 10 its all about the green these days and the big 10 has plenty of f0X green!
Clearly the goal of college football is no longer to round out the student athlete experience or support longstanding traditions. The entire facade of college football has fallen and exposed a greed driven enterprise with a winner take all mentality. So here's what I say. Fuck em! Let's win this bad boy competition. How? (You ask). We won't win in the very short term, but we can start winning immediately if we create the system that supports our success. That system is corporate sponsorships for BIG NIL $$. We should keep the remaining PAC teams intact. We should add SDSU, Boise State, Fresno State, and see if we could lure some other better teams from our region. The TV markets of Seattle and all of WA, all of OR, Bay Area/NorCal, Central CA, Arizona, Utah and Colorado should be enough to garner sufficient revenue if an updated PAC owns the region. Next we have to create revenue outside of TV contracts, specifically for NIL to attract great players to a conference that will be considered second tier at the outset. This is where Phil Knight can save not only his beloved Oregon Ducks, but the PAC and the wonderful regional competition that breeds so much tradition (college kids in RV's traveling to away games - those days are over for USC and UCLA). Phil Knight needs to rally some of his billionaire buddies who run YUGE companies to pay for sponsorship rights to schools/teams and then they need to set up big time NIL budgets. We need Amazon or Microsoft to step up for UW, and some YUGE Ag companies in WA to step up for WASU. Nike has Oregon covered so we need a big outfit to cover OSU. Stanfurd should have their pick of Silicon Valley Companies; HP, Apple, Google, Cisco.... and CAL should have no problem with Silicon Valley companies or SF companies as well. You are starting to get my drift. We need sponsorship amounts to the tune of $20 to $40m per year per school and then NIL budgets in the same range. Someone really smart needs to figure out how to create a tax deal to make this all work. If we can raise money, we can buy talent. If we can buy talent the reputation and stature of the PAC will grow and the returns will grow with it. I would put together a biz plan and show how the new PAC could be a YUGE growth company. In the end, this is what its all about: money. And it takes money to make money, as any CEO knows. Btw, I think the move will ultimately backfire on USC and UCLA. If they aren't in the hunt every year in the Big Ten for a championship or the Natty, then their fans will ultimately abandon them....like they have already done. It won't matter if LA has 6m TV viewers, there won't be many watching UCLA or USC football. And ways games will be out of site and out of mind. No more parties at CAL or Stanfurd on game weekend for UCLA and USC kids to enjoy. No short flight for alums to attend a game and hit their favorite restaurant and visit old Bay Area friends. The move to the Big Ten is all short term greed/gain.
My kid was in Berkeley in the mid-2010s. He got free football tickets his freshman year, and attended 2 games. He only attended 1 other game the rest of the time he was there. He saw more games as an 8th grader than he did as an undergrad. Things are changing. For the most part, students don't care about football. He went to 1 basketball game while he was there, and that was when Brown and Rabb were there.
“I guess you could take a run at adding San Diego State, UNLV, Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State or Fresno State to the Pac-12,” he said, “but none of those markets really move the meter from a television standpoint.”
Bob Thompson - Former president of Fox Sports Networks commenting on Pac-12’s media rights negotiations.
I disagree with most of what you have written. One example: furd has already said that it won't pay their players. Sure they could pivot from that but I doubt it. We are trending toward student-athletes being "considered" employees, once that happens I suspect both Cal and furd to drop most sports, especially football.
I do agree with this: U$C and fucla will not be successful in the B1G. It has been proven in the NFL that West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast fare poorly in W/L records. What makes 2 college teams with a bunch of teenagers think that they will perform better than the pros? What makes U$C think their tennis teams will play well at Rutgers? I don't see this being a success for either of these schools. fucla won't be in an expanded playoff and $C has an outside chance of an expanded playoff. That new head coach at $C would have been better off if he had stayed at Oklahoma.
Agree 100% with you Taco. Stanfurd would need to change their position and the entire remnants of the PAC would need to act very fast; something I am not sure they are capable of doing. They screwed themselves once because of their reticence to accept the 12 team playoff deal and history says they will fuck it up again. But there is a path if they choose to take it, get organized and act quickly. Its a big ask I know.
Yes, you are correct. And there are two ways to win wars, the old fashioned way - bigger armies and weapons, or the new way - brains and technology that eliminate the advantages of the old conventional war strategies. Asymetric. The SEC and Big Ten have a lot of money for sure, for now. But, can a new strategy that gets out in front stay out in front? Let's bring on the NIL competition until it becomes so ridiculous that it destroys itself. Let's force a new way to play the revenue game that works to our advantage. This is war, there are no prisoners to be taken. USC and UCLA just gave the rest of the PAC 12 the Big Fuck You on the way out the door. The Big Ten did it as well. And the SEC has broken rules to their benefit for years. Fuck em all. We have a lot of smart people. If they put their minds to it can win this war. One thing I learned playing football and rugby, if you don't get back up in the fight after getting knocked down, you will never even be in the game. And I never took the first cheap shot, but God help those that did, because once it happened I owned the motherfucker across from me. I'm all about competing. We either have some balls and take it to these greedy motherfuckers, or we can say good bye to CAL football.
It has to be a business proposition that is a break even at best. It cannot cost sponsors any of their profits. With 35k students and hundreds of thousands of alums, we can create value from our brand that would be worth something to certain sponsors.
I think Oregun likely has a better shot at getting into the B1G than Cal, which would make Wilcox one of the bigger losers in all of this. I wonder if he is now lamenting his choice to not accept the Oregun job just a few short months ago?!?
It wouldn’t make him a loser at all. The current Pac12 has two more seasons together. If he wins the Pac12 or even just the Pac12 north he will have schools in the Big10 come calling. No guarantee that the new Oregon or UW coach will succeed in the current P12, let alone the new Big10. Wilcox does well these next two seasons and with his Big10 experience at Wisconsin and he could be leading Oregon or UW into the new Big10.
On pondering the situation further, it would seem that there will be western division and eastern division in the Big 10 - this would reduce the amount of cross-country travel which otherwise is necessitated. Hope in this scenario that Cal is included. If there is only one division of 16 teams or whatever then it seems likely that Cal will be left out in the cold.
This guy makes an interesting argument that Cal would actually be ahead of Oregon in the pecking order. It would make sense if the B10 is prioritizing things beyond recent football results.
Ya that’s the only part of this I don’t buy. Oregon has built a national audience for its football product and I just don’t see us beating them for that last slot in Notre Dame says yes.
That said, their recent decision to hold off on Washington/Oregon expansion pending ND makes more sense in this scenario - if I was right then they could welcome Washington and Oregon regardless of Notre Dame’s choice.
What the holy fuck...where in all this hand wringing is the Cal spirit? Yes we have sucked for decades, with intermittent moments of utter unimaginable glory, but there have been a core of Cal fans, many commenting on this site, that have persevered. Can I just get a fucking GO BEARS? Sheesh....
The irony of all of this is last year, we were sitting here saying this team isn’t good enough, or that team isn’t good enough, or this team is religious or whatever.
And now we have to hope they think we are good enough to have in THEIR conference to continue on as usual. The Big 10 is a good fit (fingers crossed, because they can very well take us) I would hope other conferences would have the grace WE didn’t have when considering them. I’m sure we could possibly fit in some kind of Big 12 fusion.
I really think the Big 12 wouldn't pass up a chance to add Cal if they could. Expansion into the nation's largest state and 6th biggest media market would be too tempting.
Make The Alliance official. B1G can "merge" the Pac out of existence and into a division. We'd end up with two separate major leagues like we've seen many times in pro sports. If this creates an AL/NL dynamic, the programs left behind would be the PCL, a AAAA of sorts (a comparison more apt with loose transfer rules).
As Avi pointed out, we have enough debt that we really have to push for a major league spot at almost any cost.
Not sure the B1G has incentive to add any more West Coast teams after already snagging SC - that was their golden goose & they only had to add UCLA to get them…I mean, does adding UW and Oregon bring enough to the table to justify existing member institutions having to split $$ with another 2 schools? Doubtful, especially when they’re close to the end game move with Notre Dame. Plus they already turned them down once.
Cal’s future has mid-major written all over it…I blame Mike Williams.
Indeed, it would be more something the Pac would have to push for as terms of surrender. Could be that the monopoly would have value above the sum of the parts.
Some, but not many, have raised the student-athlete experience with a B1G entry. I don’t feel a Cal admission into the B1G is good. Perhaps the stadium debt could be paid off faster but other than that I don’t see this as a positive for those involved.
Obviously this is a bad situation for Cal, Oregon State, and Wazzu. Arizona and Arizona State likely seek refuge with the BIG12. Furd won’t allow NIL pools and may not be interested in subjecting their student-athletes to the rigors of travel to B1G games. Colorado and Utah could go BIG12 as well.
Let’s assume Oregon and Washington do get invited into the B1G. That would leave Cal, Oregon State, and Wazzu to fend for themselves (Furd likely gives up on football to focus on Olympic sports). So, the remaining 3 should go to the Mountain West if, in fact, they want to retain football. I’m fine with that and it could be an entertaining brand of football. It would be better for our student-athletes in terms of travel while still providing a sport to play as opposed to none.
The reality of these “super conferences” won’t change the landscape of college football as it currently exist: 4 – 6 teams will continue to dominate the game. NIL will allow a select few teams to creep into the top given their NIL pools e.g. aTm. Either way, Cal currently or in the future would never be able to compete under this new college football paradigm.
On the other hand, should Cal want to be relevant and ACTUALLY want to be part of the B1G then the first step is to beat ND, in the fall, then at minimum play in the conference championship. Even with that success, I would not be a supporter of Cal joining the B1G, if invited.
It is possible that should Oregon and Washington be added to the B1G that the B1G could simply monopolize the PAC12 and invite all teams in the PAC12 making a western division of the B1G. But there isn’t an incentive to do so given they have already captured the LA media market.
My preference, go to the MWC or create a new conference with select MWC teams. Cal shouldn’t go to the B1G, which isn’t much of a concern now given the low probability that they would even be considered.
Not a fan of being a mid-major. Either we commit to participating at the "highest levels" or we shut it down. If the latter, play hardball with the Gov re stadium debt. Either the state steps up, or we default on the bonds during his election year (and while his team is pushing for his promotion).
Honestly, it's either we join Big 10 or Cal football dies. I don't want expanded Pac12 and I'm sure Oregon and Washington will be leaving such a conference in a matter of time.
Then I realized, Cal football is kinda dead already. Poor records and awful attendance for the past decade, and I am still a Cal fan, so no matter what happens, I feel like I will still be a Cal football fan.
I’m 50/50 whether I would continue to follow Cal football if they left for the MWC.
TBH, if Cal football did go to the MWC and actually was good in it and won the MWC and was a perennial top team in that conference I would probably still watch and support them. However, if Cal football is mediocre in the MWC, I would probably only go to their games here when they play SDSU and that’s about it.
Could Cals incompetence end up saving us? Cal isn’t a threat to USC in recruiting or on the field but it is a rival that their alum like to travel up and play. Cal would be an easy win for most of the Big10, easier travel destination for sports teams with SFO/Oakland airports, a tourist destination and it has academic prestige.
Most of the Big 12 wouldn't fit in the power 2, so it makes sense that they'd make a play for the "corner" schools to increase their survival chances. I think the corner schools must be kept, because UDub, Oregon, Stanford and Cal really have only one potential suitor, because the SEC can expand without significantly changing its geographic footprint. If the Big 10 wanted any of these schools, now is the time, because of the media contracts. They are in no hurry.
Regardless,this next year is an audition year. Cal has to show up.
CAL Athletics can survive without the big 10 but in all reality the big 10 is jonezing for a piece of the bay area huge tv and recruiting market so when the big 10 smoke settles CAL should should jump ship and join the big 10 its all about the green these days and the big 10 has plenty of f0X green!
Clearly the goal of college football is no longer to round out the student athlete experience or support longstanding traditions. The entire facade of college football has fallen and exposed a greed driven enterprise with a winner take all mentality. So here's what I say. Fuck em! Let's win this bad boy competition. How? (You ask). We won't win in the very short term, but we can start winning immediately if we create the system that supports our success. That system is corporate sponsorships for BIG NIL $$. We should keep the remaining PAC teams intact. We should add SDSU, Boise State, Fresno State, and see if we could lure some other better teams from our region. The TV markets of Seattle and all of WA, all of OR, Bay Area/NorCal, Central CA, Arizona, Utah and Colorado should be enough to garner sufficient revenue if an updated PAC owns the region. Next we have to create revenue outside of TV contracts, specifically for NIL to attract great players to a conference that will be considered second tier at the outset. This is where Phil Knight can save not only his beloved Oregon Ducks, but the PAC and the wonderful regional competition that breeds so much tradition (college kids in RV's traveling to away games - those days are over for USC and UCLA). Phil Knight needs to rally some of his billionaire buddies who run YUGE companies to pay for sponsorship rights to schools/teams and then they need to set up big time NIL budgets. We need Amazon or Microsoft to step up for UW, and some YUGE Ag companies in WA to step up for WASU. Nike has Oregon covered so we need a big outfit to cover OSU. Stanfurd should have their pick of Silicon Valley Companies; HP, Apple, Google, Cisco.... and CAL should have no problem with Silicon Valley companies or SF companies as well. You are starting to get my drift. We need sponsorship amounts to the tune of $20 to $40m per year per school and then NIL budgets in the same range. Someone really smart needs to figure out how to create a tax deal to make this all work. If we can raise money, we can buy talent. If we can buy talent the reputation and stature of the PAC will grow and the returns will grow with it. I would put together a biz plan and show how the new PAC could be a YUGE growth company. In the end, this is what its all about: money. And it takes money to make money, as any CEO knows. Btw, I think the move will ultimately backfire on USC and UCLA. If they aren't in the hunt every year in the Big Ten for a championship or the Natty, then their fans will ultimately abandon them....like they have already done. It won't matter if LA has 6m TV viewers, there won't be many watching UCLA or USC football. And ways games will be out of site and out of mind. No more parties at CAL or Stanfurd on game weekend for UCLA and USC kids to enjoy. No short flight for alums to attend a game and hit their favorite restaurant and visit old Bay Area friends. The move to the Big Ten is all short term greed/gain.
My kid was in Berkeley in the mid-2010s. He got free football tickets his freshman year, and attended 2 games. He only attended 1 other game the rest of the time he was there. He saw more games as an 8th grader than he did as an undergrad. Things are changing. For the most part, students don't care about football. He went to 1 basketball game while he was there, and that was when Brown and Rabb were there.
No.
“I guess you could take a run at adding San Diego State, UNLV, Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State or Fresno State to the Pac-12,” he said, “but none of those markets really move the meter from a television standpoint.”
Bob Thompson - Former president of Fox Sports Networks commenting on Pac-12’s media rights negotiations.
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-gut-punch-comes-with
I disagree with most of what you have written. One example: furd has already said that it won't pay their players. Sure they could pivot from that but I doubt it. We are trending toward student-athletes being "considered" employees, once that happens I suspect both Cal and furd to drop most sports, especially football.
I do agree with this: U$C and fucla will not be successful in the B1G. It has been proven in the NFL that West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast fare poorly in W/L records. What makes 2 college teams with a bunch of teenagers think that they will perform better than the pros? What makes U$C think their tennis teams will play well at Rutgers? I don't see this being a success for either of these schools. fucla won't be in an expanded playoff and $C has an outside chance of an expanded playoff. That new head coach at $C would have been better off if he had stayed at Oklahoma.
Agree 100% with you Taco. Stanfurd would need to change their position and the entire remnants of the PAC would need to act very fast; something I am not sure they are capable of doing. They screwed themselves once because of their reticence to accept the 12 team playoff deal and history says they will fuck it up again. But there is a path if they choose to take it, get organized and act quickly. Its a big ask I know.
That's just more evidence of Cal's campus administration hostility or indifference towards college football.
I sincerely doubt that Cal will remain an FBS program past 2024. Dropping down to FCS any minutes now.
Yes, you are correct. And there are two ways to win wars, the old fashioned way - bigger armies and weapons, or the new way - brains and technology that eliminate the advantages of the old conventional war strategies. Asymetric. The SEC and Big Ten have a lot of money for sure, for now. But, can a new strategy that gets out in front stay out in front? Let's bring on the NIL competition until it becomes so ridiculous that it destroys itself. Let's force a new way to play the revenue game that works to our advantage. This is war, there are no prisoners to be taken. USC and UCLA just gave the rest of the PAC 12 the Big Fuck You on the way out the door. The Big Ten did it as well. And the SEC has broken rules to their benefit for years. Fuck em all. We have a lot of smart people. If they put their minds to it can win this war. One thing I learned playing football and rugby, if you don't get back up in the fight after getting knocked down, you will never even be in the game. And I never took the first cheap shot, but God help those that did, because once it happened I owned the motherfucker across from me. I'm all about competing. We either have some balls and take it to these greedy motherfuckers, or we can say good bye to CAL football.
It has to be a business proposition that is a break even at best. It cannot cost sponsors any of their profits. With 35k students and hundreds of thousands of alums, we can create value from our brand that would be worth something to certain sponsors.
I think Oregun likely has a better shot at getting into the B1G than Cal, which would make Wilcox one of the bigger losers in all of this. I wonder if he is now lamenting his choice to not accept the Oregun job just a few short months ago?!?
It wouldn’t make him a loser at all. The current Pac12 has two more seasons together. If he wins the Pac12 or even just the Pac12 north he will have schools in the Big10 come calling. No guarantee that the new Oregon or UW coach will succeed in the current P12, let alone the new Big10. Wilcox does well these next two seasons and with his Big10 experience at Wisconsin and he could be leading Oregon or UW into the new Big10.
Good point!!
Yeah, these next two years were pivotal for him before all this and now even more.
He is setup well to potentially transition to the new Big10 due his experience at Wisconsin and his connections to both Oregon and UW.
On pondering the situation further, it would seem that there will be western division and eastern division in the Big 10 - this would reduce the amount of cross-country travel which otherwise is necessitated. Hope in this scenario that Cal is included. If there is only one division of 16 teams or whatever then it seems likely that Cal will be left out in the cold.
The PAC is dead and there will be definite losers. It's every man for himself.
"It's Always about Bucks kid"
-Gordon Gekko
If ND accepts the B10 invitation, they may insist that Stanford (traditional rival) go with them. Add Oregon and Washington and B10 would be at 20.
My bet is that Stanford declines any offer to join the BiG.
https://youtu.be/-U8Rommye18
This guy makes an interesting argument that Cal would actually be ahead of Oregon in the pecking order. It would make sense if the B10 is prioritizing things beyond recent football results.
Ya that’s the only part of this I don’t buy. Oregon has built a national audience for its football product and I just don’t see us beating them for that last slot in Notre Dame says yes.
That said, their recent decision to hold off on Washington/Oregon expansion pending ND makes more sense in this scenario - if I was right then they could welcome Washington and Oregon regardless of Notre Dame’s choice.
Yeah, I don't think I buy that either, but . . . there's an argument.
Big 10 here we come!
Fascinating.
Larry Scott was the Chesa Boudin of collegiate athletics.
What the holy fuck...where in all this hand wringing is the Cal spirit? Yes we have sucked for decades, with intermittent moments of utter unimaginable glory, but there have been a core of Cal fans, many commenting on this site, that have persevered. Can I just get a fucking GO BEARS? Sheesh....
go bears
Fucking Go Bears!!
GO BEARS!
The irony of all of this is last year, we were sitting here saying this team isn’t good enough, or that team isn’t good enough, or this team is religious or whatever.
And now we have to hope they think we are good enough to have in THEIR conference to continue on as usual. The Big 10 is a good fit (fingers crossed, because they can very well take us) I would hope other conferences would have the grace WE didn’t have when considering them. I’m sure we could possibly fit in some kind of Big 12 fusion.
I really think the Big 12 wouldn't pass up a chance to add Cal if they could. Expansion into the nation's largest state and 6th biggest media market would be too tempting.
they will also have a footprint in all 3 of the best recruiting states (CA, TX, FL)
Oh, how the turntables.
Leave it to fOX to F things up
Fox News is destroying our democracy so it is only right that fox sports destroys the Pac12.
Make The Alliance official. B1G can "merge" the Pac out of existence and into a division. We'd end up with two separate major leagues like we've seen many times in pro sports. If this creates an AL/NL dynamic, the programs left behind would be the PCL, a AAAA of sorts (a comparison more apt with loose transfer rules).
As Avi pointed out, we have enough debt that we really have to push for a major league spot at almost any cost.
Not sure the B1G has incentive to add any more West Coast teams after already snagging SC - that was their golden goose & they only had to add UCLA to get them…I mean, does adding UW and Oregon bring enough to the table to justify existing member institutions having to split $$ with another 2 schools? Doubtful, especially when they’re close to the end game move with Notre Dame. Plus they already turned them down once.
Cal’s future has mid-major written all over it…I blame Mike Williams.
Indeed, it would be more something the Pac would have to push for as terms of surrender. Could be that the monopoly would have value above the sum of the parts.
Some, but not many, have raised the student-athlete experience with a B1G entry. I don’t feel a Cal admission into the B1G is good. Perhaps the stadium debt could be paid off faster but other than that I don’t see this as a positive for those involved.
Obviously this is a bad situation for Cal, Oregon State, and Wazzu. Arizona and Arizona State likely seek refuge with the BIG12. Furd won’t allow NIL pools and may not be interested in subjecting their student-athletes to the rigors of travel to B1G games. Colorado and Utah could go BIG12 as well.
Let’s assume Oregon and Washington do get invited into the B1G. That would leave Cal, Oregon State, and Wazzu to fend for themselves (Furd likely gives up on football to focus on Olympic sports). So, the remaining 3 should go to the Mountain West if, in fact, they want to retain football. I’m fine with that and it could be an entertaining brand of football. It would be better for our student-athletes in terms of travel while still providing a sport to play as opposed to none.
The reality of these “super conferences” won’t change the landscape of college football as it currently exist: 4 – 6 teams will continue to dominate the game. NIL will allow a select few teams to creep into the top given their NIL pools e.g. aTm. Either way, Cal currently or in the future would never be able to compete under this new college football paradigm.
On the other hand, should Cal want to be relevant and ACTUALLY want to be part of the B1G then the first step is to beat ND, in the fall, then at minimum play in the conference championship. Even with that success, I would not be a supporter of Cal joining the B1G, if invited.
It is possible that should Oregon and Washington be added to the B1G that the B1G could simply monopolize the PAC12 and invite all teams in the PAC12 making a western division of the B1G. But there isn’t an incentive to do so given they have already captured the LA media market.
My preference, go to the MWC or create a new conference with select MWC teams. Cal shouldn’t go to the B1G, which isn’t much of a concern now given the low probability that they would even be considered.
Not a fan of being a mid-major. Either we commit to participating at the "highest levels" or we shut it down. If the latter, play hardball with the Gov re stadium debt. Either the state steps up, or we default on the bonds during his election year (and while his team is pushing for his promotion).
If we are going to MWC, then I rather see Pac12 poach Boise State and such to keep the conference and retain Power 5 status.
or getting Relegated in soccer. But at least then, you have a way to move back up to the BiG kid's table.
Honestly, it's either we join Big 10 or Cal football dies. I don't want expanded Pac12 and I'm sure Oregon and Washington will be leaving such a conference in a matter of time.
Then I realized, Cal football is kinda dead already. Poor records and awful attendance for the past decade, and I am still a Cal fan, so no matter what happens, I feel like I will still be a Cal football fan.
I’m 50/50 whether I would continue to follow Cal football if they left for the MWC.
TBH, if Cal football did go to the MWC and actually was good in it and won the MWC and was a perennial top team in that conference I would probably still watch and support them. However, if Cal football is mediocre in the MWC, I would probably only go to their games here when they play SDSU and that’s about it.
Could Cals incompetence end up saving us? Cal isn’t a threat to USC in recruiting or on the field but it is a rival that their alum like to travel up and play. Cal would be an easy win for most of the Big10, easier travel destination for sports teams with SFO/Oakland airports, a tourist destination and it has academic prestige.