Cal Basketball Bubble Watch Puts Bears In The Mix With Little Margin For Error
The California Golden Bears have work to do and many wins are needed.
The California Golden Bears have landed three major wins in the last two weeks that has upgraded their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. Victories over North Carolina, Stanford and now Miami boost their resume to a bubble-worth place.
Let’s take a look at the media clippings:
Joe Lunardi’s bracketology has Cal as one of the first four teams out. More from Neil Paine of ESPN:
The Golden Bears were not exactly tracking for a strong tournament bid when they lost four of five to open ACC play, but wins over North Carolina and Miami have vaulted them into consideration. At No. 50 on the résumé list with a 31% consensus at-large probability, they would likely be on the outside looking in if it were already Selection Sunday. However, they do have three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A victory) to their name. The Bears have the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule, which could see them end up with a surprisingly intriguing case by season’s end.
Sports Illustrated now has Cal as the last team in. More from Mark Sweeney:
Mark Madsen’s team has shown tangible progress in his third year on the job, and a big February looms with a chance to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time in a decade on the line. The schedule sets up well, with all four road games left (Syracuse, Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest) looking very winnable.
USA Today’s Mark Giannotto says Cal’s resume needs more polishing.
The predictive metrics haven’t caught up to the results-based metrics after Cal knocked off UNC, Stanford and Miami to emerge from a three-game losing skid. The Golden Bears have played their way onto the NCAA tournament bubble and have no bad losses on their ledger. A few closer-than-expected results facing a weak nonconference schedule leaves them limited margin for error the next month.
Finally, Cal has been placed in the Tournament by Bracket Matrix as an 11 seed ... but on only 53 of 104 brackets, the least of any team in the tournament. The margin is still razor-thin.
Cal will have another opportunity this week for a major Quad 2 victory vs. Clemson on Saturday, and will be favored to hold homecourt tonight against Georgia Tech at 5 PM Pacific.
I just saw that Bracket Matrix updated and put Cal just barely in the tournament. Absolutely wild that we are in this position in February.
Bubble, no bubble. Just gotta find ways to win.
If Dort is out for a prolonged period, I'm more pessimistic. But we've found ways to grind out a W. Regardless, kudos to Madsen for making the jump. His teams consistently seem to improve throughout the year, so I'm hoping more stability in our roster composition will give us resume-builders earlier in the season.