Great preview, Ruey! In my opinion, this is a two-team race, Virginia and Cal. UVA has the edge by quite a bit, but I don't see NC State truly challenging Cal for 2nd even though NC State is projected to score more points as of now. As you mentioned, there aren't ridiculously talented, once-in-a-generation type swimmers in the NCAA right now, but that's not what you need in NCAA swimming to truly succeed. You need the Kate Douglass, Maggie MacNeil, and Isabel Ivey types—the kind of swimmers who will legitimately challenge for the individual title in their 3 individual events AND ones who will drop ridiculous splits on literally any relay they swim on. The good thing is Cal has 1 (which is more than most teams in the country can say); the difference in the meet can come down to whether they have 2, or even a 3rd who gets close, of these swimmers. I'm looking to Isabelle Stadden to see if she's a bit more well-rounded in her swimming to be placed on 4 relays and produce the splits needed to keep Cal in the hunt for those relay titles. Even with Ivey and Stadden though, you're probably going to need the one or two swims that really swing the points unexpectedly in favor of Cal. Think the 1650-yard freestyle when the men's team won in 2014 after a top-3 finish in the race by Jeremy Bagshaw. It'll be a fun meet for sure, and I really never want to be in the position to place doubt on Coach McKeever so I'm looking forward to the next few days.
Thanks Ruey - very comprehensive preview.
Great preview, Ruey! In my opinion, this is a two-team race, Virginia and Cal. UVA has the edge by quite a bit, but I don't see NC State truly challenging Cal for 2nd even though NC State is projected to score more points as of now. As you mentioned, there aren't ridiculously talented, once-in-a-generation type swimmers in the NCAA right now, but that's not what you need in NCAA swimming to truly succeed. You need the Kate Douglass, Maggie MacNeil, and Isabel Ivey types—the kind of swimmers who will legitimately challenge for the individual title in their 3 individual events AND ones who will drop ridiculous splits on literally any relay they swim on. The good thing is Cal has 1 (which is more than most teams in the country can say); the difference in the meet can come down to whether they have 2, or even a 3rd who gets close, of these swimmers. I'm looking to Isabelle Stadden to see if she's a bit more well-rounded in her swimming to be placed on 4 relays and produce the splits needed to keep Cal in the hunt for those relay titles. Even with Ivey and Stadden though, you're probably going to need the one or two swims that really swing the points unexpectedly in favor of Cal. Think the 1650-yard freestyle when the men's team won in 2014 after a top-3 finish in the race by Jeremy Bagshaw. It'll be a fun meet for sure, and I really never want to be in the position to place doubt on Coach McKeever so I'm looking forward to the next few days.
I think we'll take third, barely fending off Texas and their four divers