Cal builds, then loses, big lead at Pitt

The Bears fall to 0-2 in ACC play after 86-74 defeat

photo via @calmbball twitter

The frustrating thing is that Cal gave us fans hope.

This was not supposed to be a close game. Cal entered this game having lost four of five, while Pitt entered with a top 25 resume. The Panthers were 13.5 favorites in Vegas and were given a 5% pre-game chance of victory by Kenpom. This was arguably Cal’s toughest ACC game outside of their road games on Tobacco Road.

And then Cal scored on their first six possessions, then went on a 14-2 run late in the 1st half, and found themselves up 16 points with halftime nearing. My Cal fan heart leapt with optimism. Mark Madsen had used the holiday break to figure out what’s ailing the Bears! They’ve figured it out!

Perhaps, in retrospect, I should have been more cautious. Sure, Cal was cooking on offense - 39 points in 26 possessions is impressive against ANY team, let alone on the road against a dark horse ACC contender. But Pitt was scoring at a reasonable rate and it was probably inevitable that they would make a run to get back into the game.

I just didn’t expect it to happen so quickly.

Cal’s 16 point lead came with just a bit more than 4:00 to go in the first half. Pitt would tie the game one minute into the 2nd half, and take the lead a couple minutes later. It was a lead that they would steadily add to the rest of the way.

What went wrong? Everything is a fair answer, but the primary culprit is defense. Cal’s lead was built more on a hot offensive start than on lock down defense, as Pitt was scoring about a point/possession while the Bears were torrid. But here’s a scary stat: Across the final 24 minutes of this game, Pitt had 41 possessions . . . and they scored on 30 of them. Pitt got whatever they wanted for the rest of the game, and in some ways Cal did well to keep the game close-ish late thanks to reasonable offensive production.

I watched the game trying to figure out why Cal struggles so badly on defense, and the main culprit was an inability for perimeter defenders to prevent dribble penetration, whether off of screens or just general movement. But the help defense was a problem as well, as players alternated between not identifying when help was needed, or being too aggressive on help and either getting out of position or picking up a foul. Miraculously, Cal didn’t have anybody foul out of the game, though Lee Dort, Mady Sissoko and Rytis Petraitis all picked up their 4th fouls with lots of time left and two other players ended up with 4.

I suppose we need to talk about the reffing we got in this game. These refs were twitchy in a very annoying way, calling a very tight game that made it unpleasant to watch. 44 total fouls isn’t a totally insane amount, but it was a lot relative to how physical the game actually was. And the refs were particularly twitchy with technical foul calls.

Late in the first half, Pitt got a run out off of a defensive rebound that led to a dunk in transition. Pitt’s Zack Austin had the loose ball fall to him, and threw it at Cal’s DJ Campbell. Campbell, understandably annoyed, tossed it back at Austin. The refs assessed each of them technical fouls. I get why, but it annoys me that both players were equally punished when Pitt’s player was the instigator. During the lengthy stoppage, Pitt head coach Jeff Capel was assessed with a technical as well, for unclear reasons.

On Cal’s subsequent possession, Jeremiah Wilkinson drove to the basket and was fouled. A Pitt player hit him in the head with his arm on a shot block attempt. But the refs missed the foul call, and Wilkinson barked at them and motioned that he was hit in the head, and the refs immediately T’d up Wilkinson.

We can’t know for sure what Wilkinson said, and whether or not his words justified a technical foul. If he was T’d up solely for complaining about a call . . . well, players complain about calls all the time and are almost never T’d up, so maybe I’m just primed to be annoyed. Either way, the technical fed into Pitt’s ongoing comeback.

On Pitt’s possession after the technical, they hit a 3, and the refs called Lee Dort for a foul under the basket while the shot was in the air, giving Pitt more free throws. In the end, it was a 6 point possession that supercharged their erasure of Cal’s 16 point lead.

Did the refs cause Cal to lose this game? Hardly. This loss is on Cal’s defense, which put forth another performance that adds to the evidence that Cal might have the worst defense among power conference teams. But it wasn’t a well-called game, and I’d like to give a shout-out to the ACC’s play-by-play guy, who was very willing to actually criticize the refs for making a series of unnecessary calls that diminished anybody’s ability to enjoy the game.

Cal’s offense, as noted below, was not the problem. Cal certainly had cold stretches, particularly to start the 2nd half, but Cal still put up 1.12 points/possession, which would be good enough for most teams to at least stay close on the road. Cal didn’t actually have a very good shooting night, particularly from 3 (6-21), but they found efficiency by avoiding turnovers, pulling down offensive rebounds, and taking advantage of the tight whistle to get to the line a lot.

As has been the case most of the season, it was Andrej Stojakovic and Wilkinson who led the way offensively, scoring 19 and 23 points respectively. Both players drove the lane and were typically rewarded with either a bucket or a foul, and the duo combined to shoot 20-23 from the line. There were still instances when each of Cal’s two ball dominant scorers missed passing opportunities, and I still think that this team can unlock higher levels of offense with better team basketball, but it’s hard to complain about the offensive results when a team is putting up the best offense we’ve seen at Cal since 2016.

Cal will fly south to take on Clemson next, and the Tigers are undefeated in ACC play with three double-digit wins and fresh off a blowout win over Stanford. When it rains it pours, as the schedule is unforgiving during Cal’s midseason slump.

Game notes

• Joshua Ola-Joseph missed the game due to illness, while Pitt was without their leading scorer (Ishmael Leggett) due to injury.

• Presented without comment: Jeremiah Wilkinson has a higher offensive rating than Cooper Flagg.