Cal falls to Clemson to fall further off the NCAA bubble
A surprise run in the ACC conference tourney is the only path to the Big Dance left.
Remember when we checked in on Cal WBB in late January and celebrated how the surging Bears had played their way onto the edge NCAA tournament bubble? Well, that surge lasted into mid-February, and then the Bears hit a wall:
Cal’s third loss in four games, this a 70-63 loss to Clemson, all but ends any realistic chance of an NCAA at-large bid.
None of Cal’s three losses have been identical, but there has been a common theme: shooting. Against Virginia Tech, Cal couldn’t hit 3 pointers. Against Miami, Cal struggled mildly from 3 and badly at the free throw line.
Against Clemson, the Bears couldn’t hit a layup:
The Bears shot a flabbergasting 9-24 at the rim, while also turning the ball over on interior passing attempts that were attempted through too much traffic. And while most of Cal’s interior misses were good looks, Cal’s attempts to score inside ended with too many empty trips and ultimately cost them the game.
Clemson, meanwhile, generally attempted (and made) tougher looks. The Tigers were 11-18 from the mid-range, many of which were contested shots. Those kinds of looks typically aren’t all that efficient, but Clemson hit more than enough to build a lead that they maintained throughout the 2nd half.
What do you say about a team that has suddenly lost its shooting touch. Are the Bears suffering from late-season dead legs? The ACC travel schedule for a west coast team is brutal, and Cal has been forced to run a pretty tight rotation thanks to injuries to Taylor Barnes and Puff Morris. It’s one possible explanation, but it’s just as likely that this is a combination of good defense and bad variance. Clemson is a tournament team with solid interior defense. Virginia Tech is a tournament team built on their all-around defensive excellence. I probably shouldn’t overcomplicate the explanation here.
Cal stayed in this game thanks to three point shooting - Lulu Twidale and Gisella Maul combined to shoot 9-19 from distance. But Clemson’s control of the paint and all-around good shooting was more than the Bears could overcome with their own deep shots.
The regular season ends with senior day on Sunday against SMU, in what will be the final regular season game at Haas Pavilion for Sakima Walker and Claudia Langarita. The Mustangs are 2-15 in ACC play and cannot qualify for the ACC tournament, so the outcome of the game should be a formality.
Presuming that Cal beats SMU, they will finish 9-9 in ACC play and earn the 10 seed in the ACC tournament if Miami loses to Georgia Tech, and the 11 seed if Miami beats Georgia Tech. Thus, the Bears are locked into playing in the ACC tournament first round as either the 10 or 11 seed, facing either the 14 or 15 seeded teams (Florida St. or Wake Forest). A win would advance Cal to face either the 6 or 7 seed, which will be determined on Sunday depending on the results among FIVE teams currently tied at 11-6. Those teams include two teams (Notre Dame and Virginia) who Cal has already beaten, so a run to the ACC quarterfinals to face a top 4 seed is certainly on the table.
But barring an incredible run to the ACC tournament finals, Cal’s post-season fate is almost certainly decided. Cal will likely receive an invitation to play in the Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament (WBIT), a 32 team bracket that is currently the 2nd most prestigious post-season tournament.
I suppose that would be a disappointment after the Bears seemed poised to crash March Madness just a few weeks ago. But a winning record and a 9-9 ACC conference finish would exceed the expectations I held entering what I assumed would be a rebuilding year. It’s just a shame the Bears ran out of gas in the final two weeks of the season.