Cal Football 2024 Season Preview Part 1: Back from the Dead?

What exactly is the good-vibes-to-wins exchange rate these days?

The folk heroes ready to save the Bears?

From roughly 2014 through 2022, the University of California nearly killed Cal football.

We’ve spent ample time in the past documenting this reality; both by living in the day-to-day fan misery of following a school that doesn’t take athletics seriously, and by looking back at past failures.

When I wrote that last article linked above a year ago, I had reached probably the lowest level of Cal fan enthusiasm I had ever felt in my entire life, which is saying something. I survived Tom Holmoe, I survived the 2013 season, I survived Wyking Jones, and I’ve survived countless mediocre seasons in countless sports across my lifetime of fandom. But how could I maintain fandom for an entity that seemed so ambivalent about succeeding?

It was this administrative neglect that has led us to this season of change, when we’ll measure the passing of another season with games against Wake Forest and SMU rather than games against Oregon and Washington State. For the next year or two, novelty and newness might be enough to sustain fan interest, but if Cal were to have a string of dispiriting 5-7 seasons, but the losses were coming to Syracuse rather than USC . . . well, that’s going to be a tough sell.

But the last year has been full of happy surprises. Mark Madsen restored respectability to Cal basketball and continues to be a portal wizard. Mike Bloesch somehow engineered a one year turnaround of Cal’s offensive line. Cal made an inspired hire for their new chancellor. Fernando Mendoza came out of nowhere to lead a revitalized Cal offense to a bowl game. Cal’s NIL collective continued racking up win after win. Jaydn Ott made the decision to come back to Berkeley for one final ride. The Cal fan base, recognizing the threat to something that we all love, turned that fear into a positivity that I haven’t felt in quite some time.

Somehow, one year later, I’m here feeling more optimistic about Cal football and Cal fandom than I have in nearly a decade.

But now the real test is here. There have been some real positive developments within Cal athletics over the last year, but unless they lead to wins on the football field, it may not matter very much.

I hesitate to say that any season is a must-win season. But this season is a rare combo. It is critically important that Cal football find on-field success soon, to demonstrate that winning football is possible in Berkeley, to demonstrate that Cal is willing to invest to make winning football happen, that Cal is worth a spot in future power conference(s) in the next round of realignment. Simultaneously, it is possible for Cal to find on-field success this year, now, in 2024.

The window is not wide open. A leap from 6 wins to 8 or 9 is far from easy, far from guaranteed. But the combination of a star running back, quarterback depth, an experienced offensive line, lots of returning production on defense, a bevy of intriguing portal additions, and a much more tractable ACC schedule all adds up to a season of intrigue. For the first time since Jared Goff was an upper classman, Cal enters a season where if they won nine games or made a push to be a dark horse conference contender, I wouldn’t be shocked.

But this is still the program that hasn’t had a winning conference record or more than 7 regular season wins since 2009, still the program that hasn’t had a good offense and a good defense at the same time in years, still a program that struggles with depth and consistency. Nobody would be shocked if this is just another year where, come November, pushing for bowl eligibility is the only goal to shoot for.

And so we sit at an emotional precipice.

If Cal and Justin Wilcox can’t break through this year, we’ll all wonder if Cal (with or without Wilcox) can EVER break through. Failing to figure it out in a weaker conference with a weaker schedule strength will re-enforce everybody who thinks that Berkeley will never get serious about major athletics. And if Cal doesn’t have wins OR the tradition of playing west coast rivals, what exactly are fans getting by continuing to tune in. Cal administration would have to ponder finding the money to change coaching regimes when they’re taking less revenue from the ACC just to stay at the power conference table. Cal would be positioned even worse in any future round of conference musical chairs.

On the other hand . . .

If Cal and Justin Wilcox FINALLY break through with a big season, we just might be able to ride that momentum to bigger and better things. We’ll be able to unreservedly celebrate the career of Jaydn Ott by sending him off to the NFL as the guy who revived Cal football. We can credibly argue that Justin Wilcox just needed some administrative support to get things rolling. Cal will be able to dive back into portal recruiting with something to sell players on other than cash and academics. Maybe Cal can ride that success into consistently above-average play within the ACC. Maybe Cal can remind the rest of college football that we’re the best public university in the world playing in the 10th biggest media market in the country, which is a gold mine if Cal can play competent football.

For the first time in forever, I feel some optimism about Cal football. But optimism doesn’t win football games.