I've been reading "Write For California" for at least three years. The last two years there was a constant drumbeat to fire Wilcox, fire Wilcox, fire Wilcox. Last year they fired Wilcox. They brought in Lupoi who did a good job recruiting. But this year's offense has sputtered and sputtered. This whole week the drumbeat was dump Somerville, dump Somerville, dump Somerville! Put in Rolovich, Put in Rolovich, Put in Rolovich. Lupoi puts in Rolovich. Changes up the offense. Let's the players practice that offense for FOUR (4) days. I saw some success. In a meaningless, out of conference game with a brand new offensive scheme, we had the lead in the fourth quarter. Heck, if the kick returner had stayed in bounds on the kickoff return, we might have won the game. The targeting calls were soft. Why no roughing the passer on the play that concussed JKS? Anyway, I know "Doom and Gloom and fire everybody" is the one play that WFC runs best, but can we at least give the new offense a full week to be implemented?
hmmm, seems to me that the offense ~ in the first half ~ was same old same old. THEN in the second half, with a different QB (and perhaps scheme) Cal actually outscored their opponent. So yes, the new offense/scheme needs to be given time.
Question is, with the new personnel in the 2nd half did we view a glimpse of it?
He didn't want a coach that had already built a program, he wanted a coach he could mold. And to make sure nothing got in his way, he gleefully allowed his chosen one to value supposed recruiting chops over program building experience and developmental coaching talent (which he would supply).
Rivera assumed that all his NFL experience, a dynamic coach and a boatload of money was all that was needed to reach "next level."
It will be interesting to see if Ron takes ownership of this mess his ego created - and if/when he is going to do anything about it.
I'd add, though, thar one issue with Tosh is his refusal to surround himself with more experience - he's a first time head coach surrounded by mostly inexperienced coordinators, which seems like an obvious error.
That, too, falls on Rivera. I understand the attractiveness of Tosh as a coach - I bought into the hype myself. But you'd think Ron would have understood the need to pair the guy with some proven veterans to flesh out the rest of his team and provide some stability. To me, that's the baffling error.
welp, I liked your comment but don't totally agree with it. The POWER alum hired Tosh, not RR. So we agree on this point (RR responsible) for different reasons.
Expectations that are sky high often lead to extreme disappointment if not met, or only partially fulfilled. All of us who ramped up the hype are experiencing that terrible deflated feeling now.
We expected our inexperienced staff to proceed from crawling/toddling to flat out sprinting in just a few weeks. Silly us.
If we expected a Cigneti type turn around, we should have grabbed Chesney from JMU before a school down south got him.
Those guys developed their chops out of the limelight and glare of humongous expectations. We’ve got what we’ve got. Let’s support the team. They are doing their best (which isn’t very good to be sure), so let’s cheer like we love Cal and hope the coaches/players who need to improve can do so soon.
That’s my $.02 worth. (You get what you pay for…or less.)
No one ever expected that with better talent than Wilcox had that we would be playing this poorly and looking at a record that brings the word failure to mind. We fired Wilcox to win more games. We were led to believe that our new coach and his wunderkind rookie OC along with better talen t would lead us to glory this year. Expectations are sky high because there were statements made that led us to believe that we might be a 10 win team and might even have a chance at the ACC title. We were told to fill the stadium, twice now, to back our team that was on the edge of breaking through.
Instead, from one week to the next what we have seen on the field is nothing short of a mess. My concern is that we are deluding ourselves. I wasn't one of those who wanted to hire Tosh, in fact I warned people on this site about him. But trying to be a bigger man, I said people can change and I threw my support behind Tosh when he was hired. I still want him to succeed. I am impressed with the culture he wants to build. I know he knows the X's and O's. What I worry about is his management ability.
Remember, Saban told him after his one year stint as DC at Bama that he needed to move on and he went to the NFL as a DL coach. His coordinator choices reflect a huge lack of experience.
If we fired Wilcox so that we could field a more successful team this year, then we failed miserably. It's hard to imagine us being much better next year, even with more talent. If we really want to create a top tier program at CAL, we need to be ready to make some very hard decisions at the end of this season, absent a remarkable turnaround.
I feel like we fired the CEO of a Fortune 100 company who had a steady hand at the helm, ensured there were no big revenue losses but just didn't grow the company fast enough. Then he's replace him with a golden tongued cowboy and the revenues implode. What do you do?
In closing, I wish Tosh well, but I think he needs to start at a smaller school, succeed and do it again at a larger program before jumping in at this level. That's my 2 cents.
That was worth a helluva lot more than two cents. Though we've crossed swords before I shared your strong apprehension about Tosh and once he was hired I too did a 180. I believed -- as did so many other Bear fans desperate for on-field success. Despite all my experience with California football, I've still felt punched in the gut by this season so far. There is seemingly no limit to the ways Cal football can hurt you.
I'm not ready, yet, to rid of Tosh. He just needs to be kept in his lane by the GM. Changes made at the OC and OL coaching need to be made immediately, does RR have the balls to make them.
So following the capitalist tradition, what we need now after running the program into the ground is to pivot and sell it as an AI football program. No more OC, just a bot designing and calling the offense.
Tosh needs to take much of the blame as he hyped this team incessantly despite knowing that there would be minimal, if any improvement, in the OL, and that he brought in a befy of inexperienced coaches. I'm still hopeful that things can turn around, though the odds seem long.
This is my take as a Bear fan for sixty-four years. This season is so sadly typical of the experience of being a long-time Cal football fan. It is the Groundhog Day of sports fandom.
Fans were ready to support this team as long as they produced a good product which they were given all the resources necessary to do. Most fans, scarred by decades of malaise and mediocrity, don't have the stomach to support the team through yet another rebuild. This ineptitude may finally be the transition to mid-major status we've all feared could happen. On one hand, we'd probably have a better chance to actually succeed in a mid-major conference, on the other hand the potential we all see for Cal football to excel as a P4 team will not be realized. If I'm Cal and I want to remain a P4 team with realignment looming, I'm reorganizing the coaching staff immediately and making major personnel changes, not waiting until next year. If Lupoi is part of the problem and his buyout is unaffordable or you want to give him more time, and he's not willing to make immediate changes to the coaching staff he selected, then RR needs to intervene and make those decisions for him. I like Hutchings, Somerville is horrible, whoever is coaching OL and Special teams needs to step aside. And on the OL in particular I'd start giving opportunities to second string and/or freshmen, they can't be worse than the now-senior OLs that have been starting.
I'm not one to catastrophize, which is why it feels strange to do so as a Cal fan. We're supposed to be accustomed to perpetual and predictable failure: we've watched the team wallow in mediocrity for the greater part of decades.
But alas, I'm catastrophizing.
You've outlined the warning signs and red flags pretty clearly here - indications, that is, that the issues with the Bears don't seem like merely early season jitters, a coach getting warmed up, squads taking time to gel or new schemes being tested. Nor does it feel like the usual Cal ailment of simply not possessing quite enough talent on the field to execute reliably.
The problems look weird, deep, and pervasive. Things you'd have expected to ease up or iron out have gotten worse. New, ugly issues arise when another calms.
Basically, there's a whiff of disaster about the Bears right now... the sense that Tosh was a huge mistake.
At this point, my only hope is that we don't stick with the Tosh mistake for too long like we did with Holmoe or Wilcox. Hit eject as soon as possible and move on.
We can afford to pay for strong coaching and talent. This is a failure of leadership to invest our war chest effectively. Dunno if we should continue to invest in Tosh (not sure of his buyout details) or if we get a coach (and staff) who knows what they are doing.
We don’t need a bagman like Tosh as urgently in the NIL era. Just drop a large enough bag and we’ll get the talent we need.
What's the most surprising about this Is how much of a dumpster fire this is that the consensus has landed so quickly. In early Sonny Dykes / Wilcox era, there were Blues on both sides of the fence. Signs of goodness, signs of improvement, give them time. Even if Wilcox had a ceiling, it took the base a while to get there because in fact there was something coherent.
I took a break from WFC but realized how disconnected I was from the drama surrounding all the changes to Cal football, and this slow start has brought me back into the fold. I expected a learning curve with new staff, schemes and talent but expectations are now increased in this NIL era.
Thx Avi for a harsh but accurate analysis of the current Cal program and its obvious coaching inadequacies. We are now rated above only Furd and BC in the ACC - with a forecasted 4-8 record. In hindsight, all the hand wringing over 1st time HC, OC and DC was perfectly warranted. I'm with others in now being willing to check the box scores after the games, but not much more. Maybe RR will find a proven HC next year, as even the UNLV coaching staff was superior to the GBs yesterday...
Expectations based on hype are not what has gotten here. The root cause, unfortunately, rests with RR.
For now, I am OK with Tosh as HC. But he must stay in his lane, which is recruiting. Where things went tits up was the lack of supervision by RR on Tosh’s hires. As I’ve stated before, I don’t have a problem with hiring young coaches EXCEPT on the offensive side of the ball. Let’s be clear, this is the second consecutive HC hire whose orientation is defense. That went very poorly ~ for the offense ~ during Wilcox’s tenure. That Cal – specifically RR – did not mandate the best OC available in the market (there were several) lacks critical thinking. A seasoned successful college OC may have brought in a different approach/scheme that would suit student-athletes. Gents, we tried the pro-offense BS with Musgrave just a few years ago; recognizing failure wasn’t that long ago.
Y’all know we have 3 former OC on staff? I don’t care, much less will I know (behind closed doors), what Cal does next but either by committee of these 3 or 2 or 1, make the change. Perhaps we saw glimpses of it in the second half. Although I think the change in personnel had much to do with it…tbd. Next game, YES, start QB2. Let JKS see the game from a different perspective.
Meanwhile, the secondary coaches need to phone Jack Clark and get tackling lessons from the rugby team.
Discipline: First, is this the worst disciplined team in my 40+ years of fandom, fucking hell. Totally unacceptable and frankly an embarrassment to my diploma.
Let Tosh know he is in charge of recruitment and EVEN in-game decisions. All hiring decisions must be approved by RR. Tosh will recruit 4/5* players. Let’s get the right coaching staff in place in-season (NOW) and strengthened at the end of the season.
Is it bad if the other team has 1 and sometimes 2 defenders in your backfield, totally untouched, almost immediately? Until that is solved, nothing else matters.
With all due respect., "facing" the abyss implies we're on the edge of it. That was last week.
The program has fallen in. This is what free fall looks like.
Down our RB #1 and #2, our S #1 also banged up, and our QB #1 now on the CTE train, among other injury issues plaguing the team, there doesn't appear to be a clear path to somehow correcting the death spiral the team finds itself. Sadly, there's not a lot of confidence that Tosh can pull the team out straight away, particularly given that the defense, the one unit which had been showing marginal improvement, also collapsed yesterday, no doubt under the weight of trying to hold the rope for the rest of the team.
I've read all over social media about what this now feels like: is it 2013? 2001? To which I would add to the parallel, 1981. Hell, maybe we're seeing the second coming of the Marv Levy years of the early 1960s.
Our fanbase has learned to buttress itself with the collective scar tissue from the team's frustrating episodes over years of watching these kinds of failures unfold. It doesn't mean that getting cut open like this won't hurt. It certainly does.
So many of us wanted Tosh in the worst way. We have him now.
I've been reading "Write For California" for at least three years. The last two years there was a constant drumbeat to fire Wilcox, fire Wilcox, fire Wilcox. Last year they fired Wilcox. They brought in Lupoi who did a good job recruiting. But this year's offense has sputtered and sputtered. This whole week the drumbeat was dump Somerville, dump Somerville, dump Somerville! Put in Rolovich, Put in Rolovich, Put in Rolovich. Lupoi puts in Rolovich. Changes up the offense. Let's the players practice that offense for FOUR (4) days. I saw some success. In a meaningless, out of conference game with a brand new offensive scheme, we had the lead in the fourth quarter. Heck, if the kick returner had stayed in bounds on the kickoff return, we might have won the game. The targeting calls were soft. Why no roughing the passer on the play that concussed JKS? Anyway, I know "Doom and Gloom and fire everybody" is the one play that WFC runs best, but can we at least give the new offense a full week to be implemented?
well observed...well observed
hmmm, seems to me that the offense ~ in the first half ~ was same old same old. THEN in the second half, with a different QB (and perhaps scheme) Cal actually outscored their opponent. So yes, the new offense/scheme needs to be given time.
Question is, with the new personnel in the 2nd half did we view a glimpse of it?
Let's put this blame where it belongs.
Ron Rivera.
He didn't want a coach that had already built a program, he wanted a coach he could mold. And to make sure nothing got in his way, he gleefully allowed his chosen one to value supposed recruiting chops over program building experience and developmental coaching talent (which he would supply).
Rivera assumed that all his NFL experience, a dynamic coach and a boatload of money was all that was needed to reach "next level."
It will be interesting to see if Ron takes ownership of this mess his ego created - and if/when he is going to do anything about it.
All good points.
I'd add, though, thar one issue with Tosh is his refusal to surround himself with more experience - he's a first time head coach surrounded by mostly inexperienced coordinators, which seems like an obvious error.
That, too, falls on Rivera. I understand the attractiveness of Tosh as a coach - I bought into the hype myself. But you'd think Ron would have understood the need to pair the guy with some proven veterans to flesh out the rest of his team and provide some stability. To me, that's the baffling error.
welp, I liked your comment but don't totally agree with it. The POWER alum hired Tosh, not RR. So we agree on this point (RR responsible) for different reasons.
Expectations that are sky high often lead to extreme disappointment if not met, or only partially fulfilled. All of us who ramped up the hype are experiencing that terrible deflated feeling now.
We expected our inexperienced staff to proceed from crawling/toddling to flat out sprinting in just a few weeks. Silly us.
If we expected a Cigneti type turn around, we should have grabbed Chesney from JMU before a school down south got him.
Those guys developed their chops out of the limelight and glare of humongous expectations. We’ve got what we’ve got. Let’s support the team. They are doing their best (which isn’t very good to be sure), so let’s cheer like we love Cal and hope the coaches/players who need to improve can do so soon.
That’s my $.02 worth. (You get what you pay for…or less.)
Your welcome.
No one ever expected that with better talent than Wilcox had that we would be playing this poorly and looking at a record that brings the word failure to mind. We fired Wilcox to win more games. We were led to believe that our new coach and his wunderkind rookie OC along with better talen t would lead us to glory this year. Expectations are sky high because there were statements made that led us to believe that we might be a 10 win team and might even have a chance at the ACC title. We were told to fill the stadium, twice now, to back our team that was on the edge of breaking through.
Instead, from one week to the next what we have seen on the field is nothing short of a mess. My concern is that we are deluding ourselves. I wasn't one of those who wanted to hire Tosh, in fact I warned people on this site about him. But trying to be a bigger man, I said people can change and I threw my support behind Tosh when he was hired. I still want him to succeed. I am impressed with the culture he wants to build. I know he knows the X's and O's. What I worry about is his management ability.
Remember, Saban told him after his one year stint as DC at Bama that he needed to move on and he went to the NFL as a DL coach. His coordinator choices reflect a huge lack of experience.
If we fired Wilcox so that we could field a more successful team this year, then we failed miserably. It's hard to imagine us being much better next year, even with more talent. If we really want to create a top tier program at CAL, we need to be ready to make some very hard decisions at the end of this season, absent a remarkable turnaround.
I feel like we fired the CEO of a Fortune 100 company who had a steady hand at the helm, ensured there were no big revenue losses but just didn't grow the company fast enough. Then he's replace him with a golden tongued cowboy and the revenues implode. What do you do?
In closing, I wish Tosh well, but I think he needs to start at a smaller school, succeed and do it again at a larger program before jumping in at this level. That's my 2 cents.
That was worth a helluva lot more than two cents. Though we've crossed swords before I shared your strong apprehension about Tosh and once he was hired I too did a 180. I believed -- as did so many other Bear fans desperate for on-field success. Despite all my experience with California football, I've still felt punched in the gut by this season so far. There is seemingly no limit to the ways Cal football can hurt you.
I'm not ready, yet, to rid of Tosh. He just needs to be kept in his lane by the GM. Changes made at the OC and OL coaching need to be made immediately, does RR have the balls to make them.
Tosh is an asset for Cal, if harnessed properly.
Golden tongued cowboy is a great mental image.
So following the capitalist tradition, what we need now after running the program into the ground is to pivot and sell it as an AI football program. No more OC, just a bot designing and calling the offense.
But we can pay for better, so why stick around with mediocrity?
Tosh needs to take much of the blame as he hyped this team incessantly despite knowing that there would be minimal, if any improvement, in the OL, and that he brought in a befy of inexperienced coaches. I'm still hopeful that things can turn around, though the odds seem long.
Ha ha
1000% with you...you exceeded your declared value!
From the perspective of almost 70 years of watching the bears and hoping for something better, all I can say is Welcome to Cal Football!
This is my take as a Bear fan for sixty-four years. This season is so sadly typical of the experience of being a long-time Cal football fan. It is the Groundhog Day of sports fandom.
Fans were ready to support this team as long as they produced a good product which they were given all the resources necessary to do. Most fans, scarred by decades of malaise and mediocrity, don't have the stomach to support the team through yet another rebuild. This ineptitude may finally be the transition to mid-major status we've all feared could happen. On one hand, we'd probably have a better chance to actually succeed in a mid-major conference, on the other hand the potential we all see for Cal football to excel as a P4 team will not be realized. If I'm Cal and I want to remain a P4 team with realignment looming, I'm reorganizing the coaching staff immediately and making major personnel changes, not waiting until next year. If Lupoi is part of the problem and his buyout is unaffordable or you want to give him more time, and he's not willing to make immediate changes to the coaching staff he selected, then RR needs to intervene and make those decisions for him. I like Hutchings, Somerville is horrible, whoever is coaching OL and Special teams needs to step aside. And on the OL in particular I'd start giving opportunities to second string and/or freshmen, they can't be worse than the now-senior OLs that have been starting.
I'm not one to catastrophize, which is why it feels strange to do so as a Cal fan. We're supposed to be accustomed to perpetual and predictable failure: we've watched the team wallow in mediocrity for the greater part of decades.
But alas, I'm catastrophizing.
You've outlined the warning signs and red flags pretty clearly here - indications, that is, that the issues with the Bears don't seem like merely early season jitters, a coach getting warmed up, squads taking time to gel or new schemes being tested. Nor does it feel like the usual Cal ailment of simply not possessing quite enough talent on the field to execute reliably.
The problems look weird, deep, and pervasive. Things you'd have expected to ease up or iron out have gotten worse. New, ugly issues arise when another calms.
Basically, there's a whiff of disaster about the Bears right now... the sense that Tosh was a huge mistake.
Like I said, I'm fully catastrophizing. 😐
“Catastrophizing!” WOW. Clearly a Cal alum!
I'll double dog catastrophisize you!
At this point, my only hope is that we don't stick with the Tosh mistake for too long like we did with Holmoe or Wilcox. Hit eject as soon as possible and move on.
We can afford to pay for strong coaching and talent. This is a failure of leadership to invest our war chest effectively. Dunno if we should continue to invest in Tosh (not sure of his buyout details) or if we get a coach (and staff) who knows what they are doing.
We don’t need a bagman like Tosh as urgently in the NIL era. Just drop a large enough bag and we’ll get the talent we need.
What's the most surprising about this Is how much of a dumpster fire this is that the consensus has landed so quickly. In early Sonny Dykes / Wilcox era, there were Blues on both sides of the fence. Signs of goodness, signs of improvement, give them time. Even if Wilcox had a ceiling, it took the base a while to get there because in fact there was something coherent.
I took a break from WFC but realized how disconnected I was from the drama surrounding all the changes to Cal football, and this slow start has brought me back into the fold. I expected a learning curve with new staff, schemes and talent but expectations are now increased in this NIL era.
Thx Avi for a harsh but accurate analysis of the current Cal program and its obvious coaching inadequacies. We are now rated above only Furd and BC in the ACC - with a forecasted 4-8 record. In hindsight, all the hand wringing over 1st time HC, OC and DC was perfectly warranted. I'm with others in now being willing to check the box scores after the games, but not much more. Maybe RR will find a proven HC next year, as even the UNLV coaching staff was superior to the GBs yesterday...
Expectations based on hype are not what has gotten here. The root cause, unfortunately, rests with RR.
For now, I am OK with Tosh as HC. But he must stay in his lane, which is recruiting. Where things went tits up was the lack of supervision by RR on Tosh’s hires. As I’ve stated before, I don’t have a problem with hiring young coaches EXCEPT on the offensive side of the ball. Let’s be clear, this is the second consecutive HC hire whose orientation is defense. That went very poorly ~ for the offense ~ during Wilcox’s tenure. That Cal – specifically RR – did not mandate the best OC available in the market (there were several) lacks critical thinking. A seasoned successful college OC may have brought in a different approach/scheme that would suit student-athletes. Gents, we tried the pro-offense BS with Musgrave just a few years ago; recognizing failure wasn’t that long ago.
Y’all know we have 3 former OC on staff? I don’t care, much less will I know (behind closed doors), what Cal does next but either by committee of these 3 or 2 or 1, make the change. Perhaps we saw glimpses of it in the second half. Although I think the change in personnel had much to do with it…tbd. Next game, YES, start QB2. Let JKS see the game from a different perspective.
Meanwhile, the secondary coaches need to phone Jack Clark and get tackling lessons from the rugby team.
Discipline: First, is this the worst disciplined team in my 40+ years of fandom, fucking hell. Totally unacceptable and frankly an embarrassment to my diploma.
Let Tosh know he is in charge of recruitment and EVEN in-game decisions. All hiring decisions must be approved by RR. Tosh will recruit 4/5* players. Let’s get the right coaching staff in place in-season (NOW) and strengthened at the end of the season.
Go Bears!!
Is it bad if the other team has 1 and sometimes 2 defenders in your backfield, totally untouched, almost immediately? Until that is solved, nothing else matters.
Bears are a hot mess; that preseason kool-aid I was drinking was sweetened with saccharin.
If Lupoi wants to go down with the Somerville ship then he should stick with him as OC.
With all due respect., "facing" the abyss implies we're on the edge of it. That was last week.
The program has fallen in. This is what free fall looks like.
Down our RB #1 and #2, our S #1 also banged up, and our QB #1 now on the CTE train, among other injury issues plaguing the team, there doesn't appear to be a clear path to somehow correcting the death spiral the team finds itself. Sadly, there's not a lot of confidence that Tosh can pull the team out straight away, particularly given that the defense, the one unit which had been showing marginal improvement, also collapsed yesterday, no doubt under the weight of trying to hold the rope for the rest of the team.
I've read all over social media about what this now feels like: is it 2013? 2001? To which I would add to the parallel, 1981. Hell, maybe we're seeing the second coming of the Marv Levy years of the early 1960s.
Our fanbase has learned to buttress itself with the collective scar tissue from the team's frustrating episodes over years of watching these kinds of failures unfold. It doesn't mean that getting cut open like this won't hurt. It certainly does.
So many of us wanted Tosh in the worst way. We have him now.