The fourth quarter Cal-lapse: Cal is 6-18 in one-score games since 2020
The Bears cannot come from behind and win, they struggle to defend leads when they are given, and they cannot kick game winning field goals when they need to hit them. Otherwise, everything is good!
There is one major underlying factor in why Cal is now 3-4 instead of 5-2, 6-1, 7-0, etc.
Cal cannot close football games. And they haven’t been able to for quite some time.
However, the culprit is not just the Cal offense and kicking game, as have been popular targets. This is a team-wide issue.
Here is the real horror movie you want to look away from in October. Full Google Sheet is here, if you want the full gruesome details.
The Cal offense is completely unable to finish late game drives
You know how NBA fans love to bring up clutch time numbers when trying to settle debates like Steph vs. LeBron?
Cal football under Justin Wilcox is currently James Harden.
The Bears are 1-4 in one-score games in 2024, bringing their record to 6-18 since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. (Take those weird 2020 games away, and the record is still a 5-16 eyesore).
In those particular games, they have been outscored 49-16 in the 4th quarter.
In their four game losing streak to star, that number is 42-9.
Dive deep into the clutch minutes, and the Bears have been outscored 28-0 in the final 7.5 minutes of each of those games.
Cal has had the lead in four of those five games, and blown three of those leads (two by double-digits!).
And this is not just a this year phenomenon either. If we go back to 2023, Cal has been outscored 56-6 in the final 7.5 minutes in these one score games.
In 2024, Cal has had 10 offensive drives in one-score games with under 7:30 left in the 4th quarter. The result of those drives have been three missed field goals, three turnover on downs, 3 punts, and an interception. Zero points.
Extending to 2023, Cal has had 19 such drives in one-score games with under 7:30 left in regulation, crossing the opponent's 30 seven times in 2023-24 in these situation. The results of those 19 drives were seven punts, five turnover on downs, three missed field goals, two interceptions, one fumble, and one touchdown (with the two point conversion failing to lose to USC last year).
Six points on 19 drives. Cal has scored once in these situations, in two years, in close games, for a success rate of 5.2%.
Let’s just skip on the kicking stuff, it’s been rehashed to death and the poor dudes have had enough flak placed at their feet. But you can see the pressure that has too amount on the kickers because of numbers like what you see above—they know they will have to be asked to deliver, over and over, because touchdowns are probably not coming.
You thought that was the end of the horror show? Read on!
The Cal defense is unable to make the necessary stops
When Cal has had a lead in the 4th quarter in these one-score game situations, the Cal defense conceded 7 touchdowns on 9 drives in 2024, including 6 of their last 6 drives. Take it back to 2023, and it's 13 touchdowns conceded by the defense on 19 drives.
When Cal does end up scoring on offense late in the second half sometime in the fourth quarter in these games, the Cal defense has given up a touchdown on the successive drive four of five times in 2024. Take it back to 2023 and it's 7 of 8 times. Take it back to 2022 and it's 10 of 13 times.
That’s 70 points conceded in the last 13 crunchtime defensive drives when the Bears needed a stop with the lead. That is bad.
Cal has had 13 leads in these one score game situations in the 4th quarter, and have ended up with a desolate record of 5-8 because of this rather untimely defense.
Cal is 119th in 4th quarter scoring offense in 2024, at 4.3 points per game. But it’s the Cal defense that has been perennially bad in the 4th quarter the last few seasons, ranking 104th so far this year at 9.3 points per game allowed. This goes on top of 9.1 ppg allowed in 2023 (115th) and 8.8 ppg allowed in 2022 (110th).
The Cal defense has been better than the Cal offense in 2024, and has at times shown the flashes of being an elite unit. But they have been horrendously unclutch at the biggest moments.
No heroics
Cal has not had a come-from-behind win on offense in the 4th quarter since the 2019 Big Game.
In the 18 or so drives they have been given to come back to win late, they have scored 5 times, for a total of 28 points, but 3 times missed the extra point or two point conversion to lose, and twice lost in overtime.
So Cal is averaging about 1.6 points per clutch drive. These would be great numbers in basketball. It’s a dirge in football.
Very few of Cal’s six one-score wins involved true heroics, and instead require Cal to hold on for dear life. Auburn is the closest, with some clutch picks by the Takers sealing the deal, but it was definitely a “hold on for dear life” type of game despite thoroughly outplaying the Tigers.
Much of the other wins took on a similar nature of “happy I won, but how did we win” flavor:
Washington State in 2023 came back from an 18 point deficit, forcing Cal to hang on by their fingernails
Cal could not close out Arizona State in 2023, as an 18 play, 74 yard drive was stopped at 4th and goal on the 1.
UNLV in 2022 was one of the most frustrating experiences as the Bears and Rebels kept hitting a tennis ball into a net for that final hour of football.
Oregon 2020 required the Ducks to stumble all over themselves in an empty Memorial Stadium.
Cal's only real come from behind fourth quarter win in the last 5 years was the 2022 Big Game, where Stanford coughed up the Axe by giving up a fumble-six scoop-and-score and turned it over for a nine yard clinching TD drive, with everything culminating in a Stanford field goal as time expired to cut the lead to seven.
I will take it gladly of course! But this is a Yakety Sax type of comeback win here. It’s not something you build your bona fides on as a program.
Cal Football 'Cals Around' and Finds Out Against NC State
As much as I’d like to copy and paste the postgame Pitt column, I have to become a coroner and make some declarations after the monstrosity against NC State.
What are the takeaways?
Despite having a good defense and a very productive offense this season, the Bears have not been able to shake off the 4th quarter woes. They can’t finish drives they need to finish. They can’t stop their opponents when they need to get a stop. And they can’t make a field goal.
What we are left with from these numbers is a Cal team that lacks any confidence in its ability to close football games. The offense might rely on the defense to keep it in the game when it struggles, but it becomes remarkably unable to get a stop when trying to hold the leads they are given. Whether that’s due to a lack of pass rushers or the defense expending too much effort in-game from too many snaps is unclear, but this is a pattern Peter Sirmon needs to fix, soon.
The defense does not trust the offense to get that one score they need, as results have borne out the lack of production. This problem has persisted from Bill Musgrave to Jake Spavital to Mike Bloesch. Subpar offensive line play is a part of it, particularly in its miscues near the red zone, but the Bears still have plenty of talented skill players and game-ready quarterbacks. They should be doing better than a 5% success rate in clutch time.
And everyone holds their breath and pats the kicker on the back when they are put up to the test. It’s an environment where everyone lacks trust in the end result, and the end result is left wanting.
Is some of that on coaching? Sure. Cal does get a little conservative with their playcalling near the end of games, most recently seen against Pitt. And every bad decision gets magnified, although I do think Justin Wilcox has been generally average in this department.
But at some point, this inability to finish has to be tough on the psychology of our players and weighing us down in crunch time. They are doing nearly everything right to win games this year, except the finish. It reminds me of 2007, where Cal seemed to be so close to getting off the slip and slide, only to make another critical error and fall deeper into the pit. The snakebit phenomenon has to be felt by everyone by now.
If football was a 50 to 53 minute game, perhaps Cal would be ranked right now instead of looking for demons.
But with mere minutes left on the clock and Cal needing a big play from someone, can step up and deliver?
These are the questions Justin Wilcox has to answer if he wants to turn this season (and his tenure) around before time runs out.
A scientific analysis has determined that the 4th quarter is *definitely not* ours.
Defense has been gassed in the 4th quarter of each game. The pass rush especially . I wonder if it's simply a lack of depth to enable more of a rotation, or if the coaches should be rotating more than they are. The Miami game, for example, their o-line took over that game in the 4th.