Cal football placed 43rd on ESPN preseason FPI, 42nd toughest schedule

The California Golden Bears get an early projection of 6 to 7 wins.

Credit: Rob Hwang

Preseason rankings time! The thing that only somewhat matters, but helps level out the expectations of Cal fans everywhere.

Cal is placed at 43rd on the ESPN preseason Football Power Index, up 9 spots from their 52nd place finish in 2023. That’s great!

Cal is situated 8th in the ACC. That’s less great!

Football Power Index remains a black box in terms of its overall calculations, although we do know some of the factors that go into it. From Wikipedia, here appear to be the inputs:

The main inputs for each prior includes data on the last 4 seasons (with an emphasis on the previous season), the number of returning starters on the offense and defense (with the QB counting as more), a binary input on the returning coach, and the strength of the team's recruiting class (with an input for transfers).

Data on the last 4 seasons definitely will depress Cal’s ranking, with last season being up and down (and the seasons before that deserve the trash can). Returning starters is at a pretty good spot for the Bears, with 17 Cal starters coming back, near the top in college football. Returning coach would be great, except Justin Wilcox still has a lot to prove. And obviously Cal’s recruiting classes have been a little bit quieter, but the transfer portal has been solid, so it evens out.

Still, it can be a nice guiding mechanism for what the media will project from the Bears.

Turns out it’s more of the same.

Cal is given a 71% chance to win at least six games. Their projection stands at 6.6 wins, so between 6-6 and 7-5 appears to be where the early stats place them with these numbers. Cal’s schedule also downgrades from their brutal Pac-12 escapade last year—the Bears have only the 42nd toughest schedule according to FPI, down from 24th in 2023.

Here are the FPI rankings of Cal’s opponents.

Cal will be underdogs

11. at Florida State (Projection of 9-3). Florida State is coming off an undefeated regular season, has enjoyed great recruiting success, and had a great portal class to offset significant roster turnover, so no surprise FPI has them this high . Matchups include #7 Notre Dame, #15 Clemson, #20 Florida, 23 Miami and #25 SMU which depress their win projection, but the Seminoles still figure to be an ACC title favorite.

19. at Auburn (Projection of 7-5). The rankings love the Tigers, likely due to their great recruiting rankings and portal additions. So why 7-5? Auburn has the 5th toughest schedule in football, playing FPI #1 Georgia, #5 Alabama, #8 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri and #14 Texas A&M. Cal is the appetizer. They will want those early wins to ensure bowl eligibility before hitting the gauntlet.

25. at SMU (Projection of 8-4).The early stats LOVE Southern Methodist, which makes sense after an 11-3, undefeated American season. Also, it’s one of the easier schedules among all programs, other than their Florida State game. The path is paved for a good season. But keep in mind FPI rates past success very well, so there’s likely inflation from this ranking.

Cal will be slight underdogs

23. Miami (Projection of 8-4). The Hurricanes have also been cleaning up in recruiting and in the portal, as you’d expect from a Mario Cristobal team. Their schedule is also manageable, with Florida State, Florida and Louisville their toughest opponents. Cal might be their fourth or fifth hardest game.

Flip a coin

28. NC State (Projection of 8-4). The buzz has already begun for the Wolfpack and Dave Doeren to be an ACC sleeper. They finished 9-4 and reloaded particularly well in the portal and have been a beacon of consistency. They have two early challenges with #9 Tennessee and #15 Clemson. If they split those games their schedule loosens up, with their October tilt in Berkeley a critical barometer for their playoff chances.

53. at Pittsburgh (Projection of 6-6). Ah, a trap game at Pitt. Who doesn’t love a trap game at Pitt? The Panthers aren’t expected to light the world on fire in 2024, but Pat Narduzzi vs. Justin Wilcox has all the makings of a war of attrition. Pitt has Clemson, West Virginia, Louisville, UNC and SMU on their schedule has their toughest games. But it’s PItt. They can beat or get beat by anyone.

Cal will be slight favorites

38. Oregon State (Projection of 8-4). This is a ranking that is a bit interesting. The Beavers definitely have a far easier schedule this year so it feels within reason they could win eight games. But 38th? The Beavers have lost most of their coaching staff and much of their top-line talent that bulldozed Cal for 52 last October. Still, I will never underestimate Oregon State. Not in this lifetime.

Cal will be favorites

59. Stanford (Projection of 5-7). The Trees continue to make small incremental steps toward being a competitive football team again, with better recruiting classes. But it’s tough to see a fast rebuild without portal momentum. Clemson, Louisville, NC State and SMU will not make things easier, and Notre Dame and #30 TCU out of conference won’t help. A bowl could be on the line for the Cardinal at the Big Game, so they’ll likely be playing hard.

70. Syracuse (Projection of 6-6). The Orange are rebuilding, but their 82nd-ranked schedule is going to provide quick dividends. At NC State is their hardest game, Miami to finish at home is second, and at Cal is third. They will have the ability to make a bowl though with what’s left.

71. at Wake Forest (Projection of 5-7). Ole Miss, Clemson, Miami, NC State, UNC are all on the docket. Won’t be easy for the Demon Deacons. But again, many winnable games mean Cal could be a bowl decider on a Friday night at home. Always be on the lookout here.

80. San Diego State (Projection of 6-6/7-5). Congrats on the Aztecs for finding a competent coach, so Cal can’t take this one for granted sandwiched between Auburn and Florida State. But this is a game the Bear should win.

So, based on these projections there are three games the Bears are probably not expected to win (SMU! How about that), four more games within the margin of error, and then four games the Bears should win.

But there are likely more statistically significant projections out there. We’ll get to them at a future date.