I think the increased, but not really yet recognizedd, reality that Cal faces a need to win eleven games to get into a twelve team playoff, since that reality includes the likelihood that the ACC will only get two teams, at the most, into the top twelve teams to be allowed into the FBS playoffs. This would be a good discussion topic on WFC. I c0uld be wrong, but if so I want people to tell me why.
I will try to make this as short as possiible, which for me is very difficult. Lots to say.
Lots of commentary out there on which teams will make the top level of othe FBS playoffs next season, which is for twelve teams. Wish I could go back and copy the fhree of four online articles on this subject, but I can't. In general, if memory serves me correct, the ACC and Big 12 are pegged to get one to three teams in the aggregate. Cal is not given much of a chance for any but for one poll, which essentailly said they have a chance, though Cal was listed in the fourth of six groups, which seems to make it almost impossible for them to make a top twelve spot.
Here's another article I read on the subject this morning just dealing with how former Pac 12 schools will do in competing with their new brethren in the Big 10 next seaon--
Says the four transferee teams to the Big 10 wil do pretty well. UCLA is rated last of the four. Persoonally, I think UCLA is going downhilland willl likely strugggle to get to the .500 level next year and so is very unlikely to get into the playoffs. But I won't go into my reasons for that, as I have things to do this morning.
What I want to get into is Cal's chances in getting into the twelve team FBS playoffs next season. I'd say it is a longshot at best, mostly because of tshe number of teams that can be selected for that honor. ( won't even spend the time adding them up. Cal does seem to be more loaded with talent than last season, but last season Cal would not have made the final top twelve teams that got into the playoffs.
All of this leads to the reason I am writing this. There seems to be some movement into recognizing that some teams on the west coast are inmproving football powers. Don't have the article that says that, but those teams listed were 1) Boise St. and 2) San Diego St. Those are two of the teams I would add to a revitalized Pac 12 (or close to it) So that would get me to six teams in the new, revised Pac 12 (or so) -- Cal, Stanford, Oregon St., Wash. St, Boise St., and San Diego St.
The other teams I initially listed a few weeks ago on this subject were Fresno St. (a good football school, so long as Tedfford is the coach there), Hawaii (a great tourist destination), and Las Vegas (the best tourist destination in the U.S. and much better than Hawaii because it is so much closer to the rest of all the teams I have mentioned.
There are a few unknowns that come into play here. The first is how much availability there would be to allow Las Vegas to play in thie new NFL stadium that was just built. I have no idea on that, and really don't know how good, and big the stadium the Las Vegas now plays in is. And I'm not going to research that. But just having a game in the curren U of Las Vegas stadium would not detract from all of the fun a visiting team supporters would have while in Vegas following their Bears.
Adding in Fresno St; and Las Vegas would get the revised Pac (Whatever) to eight teams. Additional teams could be Hawaii (but maybe only after they get the new stadium they supposedly need) and one or two addiitional teams from the up and coming Mountain West conference (see schools -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_West_Conference). Perhaps San Jose St. could be included but that might hurt Cal and Stanford a bit in their attendance, though I doubt much).
So, adding to the initial teams I mentioned, or Fresno St, Las Vegas, and San Diego St.,, would result in nine teams in a new Pac conference, resullting in nine schools in a Pac Nine conference and, most importantly, having every school in the conferencl playing Las Vegas every other year, on a home and away basis. That means that the other eight schools would get to play in Las Vegas every other year, and perhaps some of thosee games could be in the Raiders new stadium.
Also, this setup would be three locations that provide very good excellent fun and recreational activities to partake in every other year (excluding fans from the Bay Area, which would only have two two new tourist locations to visit) -- Cal/Stanford (SF), San Diego, and Las Vegas
Just a thought. Just remember that Cal has a very small chance to getting into the upcoming national championship tournament next season because of the old Pac 12 not surviving. That's too bad, caused very likely in large part by hiring a bad Pac 12 commissoiner.
( will be sending this comment to AD Knowlton and maybe Chancellor Carol Crist, who I still hope to talk to about my idee to have a statue of Joe Starkey added,next to the one now standing for Kevin Moen plus a device that will show the complete video of The Play ending with Starkey's "There will be no extra point" statement, which would first be exhibiited close to a College GameDay televised game event at Cal.
I think Cal likely loses to Auburn, FuSU, NCSU and SMU. Against Miami, Cal faces an extremely talented squad, so it'll be a tough loss, barring a series of Cristobal mistakes. UCD, 'Furd and SDSU are wins. On paper a few other matchups will see Cal slightly favored (before season starts) such as maybe Syracuse and the cross-country Friday night tilt vs. WF; some will be tossups such as, I think, a highly motivated Oregon State and conceivably @ Pitt. I predict Cal comes away with somewhere between five and seven wins. Ceiling eight wins, floor four. I would take the under, with six wins my best guess. I would be more optimistic if not for the two early trips to play Auburn and FSU (gonna be two hella long plane rides home if Cal gets pummelled in East Alabama and Tallahassee), and overall cumulative effect of an insane amount of travel.
I'm still waiting for a coaching shake-up on the defense side of the ball. I'm miffed Wilcox hasn't done anything. Brian Kelly, at LSU, goes 10 - 3 including an exciting bowl game (I was there) and within days fires his ENTIRE defensive staff!! Yup, you read that right, the entire defensive staff. Meanwhile, Wilcox...nada.
Wilcox is pulling down the most stress free $5 million a year in the entire sporting world. Why oust your friends when you don't have to? And I am not buying comfortable wins over Wake Forest and Stanford. Dave Clawson at WF has been a far better HC than Wilcox over the past seven seasons with six straight bowl games before last year's fall-off. Stanford's comeback win in Boulder last year was something Wilcox can only dream about. I am afraid Troy Taylor is going to be a tough out going forward.
To be honest, my first reaction here is that while the Pac12 will be missed, our place in will not. Excited to see the new completion and how we stack up. GO BEARS!
It will be interesting. I am more worried about the D tho. Continued lack of pressure and poor secondary play are a greater threat to the 8+ win plateau than a few long plane ride, IMO.
I guess I have some maybe false confidence that will get addressed given Wilcox's pedigree. The offense remains more of a question for me in Spav's departure, and since that side of the ball has not been Wilcox's strong suit (to say the least). But that's maybe mitigated by have good leadership on that side of the ball returning (Ott and Mendoza) and overall personnel continuity (relatively).
Wilcox has historically struggled to win on the road, and it’s for various reasons that touch on all 3 facets of the game…I mean, if it’s not the O struggling to execute, it’s the D not tackling….or it’s special teams. I mean, it’s all over the map. Now, sure it is absolutely hard to win on the road. But in 7 years as a HC, his teams have consistently struggled to put complete games together, which is the biggest thing that gives me pause when I think of them going on the road and trying to win at Wake…
You have to be mentally tough to win on the road - his teams usually aren’t that…and it comes down to culture. Cal’s a program that makes a lot of excuses…
True. That stretch where David Reese/Xavier Carlton came alive gives me hope. But the secondary has to improve, or we need to generate more pressure to help them out.
We reloaded also. I believe that cal will do better than what the odd makers say. I believe because of how high a level cow had to play to even be competitive in the old pad 12. That is it's going to benefit The golden bears when they play teams like florida state and auburn. I'm going to place that bet cause I believe that they will reach seven wins at the minimum
I think Wilcox will be at Cal forever with 7-5 seasons and wins over Stanford. In fact maybe there will be a bronze statue of him at the stadium steps one day.
A lot of "ifs" here. IF the Cal offense shows up like it did in the latter half of last season, and IF the defense shows up consistently like it did in the last three games of last season, THEN Cal could be a real interesting team. IF.
Gobears49
I think the increased, but not really yet recognizedd, reality that Cal faces a need to win eleven games to get into a twelve team playoff, since that reality includes the likelihood that the ACC will only get two teams, at the most, into the top twelve teams to be allowed into the FBS playoffs. This would be a good discussion topic on WFC. I c0uld be wrong, but if so I want people to tell me why.
Gobears49,
Gobears49 9:34a
I will try to make this as short as possiible, which for me is very difficult. Lots to say.
Lots of commentary out there on which teams will make the top level of othe FBS playoffs next season, which is for twelve teams. Wish I could go back and copy the fhree of four online articles on this subject, but I can't. In general, if memory serves me correct, the ACC and Big 12 are pegged to get one to three teams in the aggregate. Cal is not given much of a chance for any but for one poll, which essentailly said they have a chance, though Cal was listed in the fourth of six groups, which seems to make it almost impossible for them to make a top twelve spot.
Here's another article I read on the subject this morning just dealing with how former Pac 12 schools will do in competing with their new brethren in the Big 10 next seaon--
Says the four transferee teams to the Big 10 wil do pretty well. UCLA is rated last of the four. Persoonally, I think UCLA is going downhilland willl likely strugggle to get to the .500 level next year and so is very unlikely to get into the playoffs. But I won't go into my reasons for that, as I have things to do this morning.
What I want to get into is Cal's chances in getting into the twelve team FBS playoffs next season. I'd say it is a longshot at best, mostly because of tshe number of teams that can be selected for that honor. ( won't even spend the time adding them up. Cal does seem to be more loaded with talent than last season, but last season Cal would not have made the final top twelve teams that got into the playoffs.
All of this leads to the reason I am writing this. There seems to be some movement into recognizing that some teams on the west coast are inmproving football powers. Don't have the article that says that, but those teams listed were 1) Boise St. and 2) San Diego St. Those are two of the teams I would add to a revitalized Pac 12 (or close to it) So that would get me to six teams in the new, revised Pac 12 (or so) -- Cal, Stanford, Oregon St., Wash. St, Boise St., and San Diego St.
The other teams I initially listed a few weeks ago on this subject were Fresno St. (a good football school, so long as Tedfford is the coach there), Hawaii (a great tourist destination), and Las Vegas (the best tourist destination in the U.S. and much better than Hawaii because it is so much closer to the rest of all the teams I have mentioned.
There are a few unknowns that come into play here. The first is how much availability there would be to allow Las Vegas to play in thie new NFL stadium that was just built. I have no idea on that, and really don't know how good, and big the stadium the Las Vegas now plays in is. And I'm not going to research that. But just having a game in the curren U of Las Vegas stadium would not detract from all of the fun a visiting team supporters would have while in Vegas following their Bears.
Adding in Fresno St; and Las Vegas would get the revised Pac (Whatever) to eight teams. Additional teams could be Hawaii (but maybe only after they get the new stadium they supposedly need) and one or two addiitional teams from the up and coming Mountain West conference (see schools -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_West_Conference). Perhaps San Jose St. could be included but that might hurt Cal and Stanford a bit in their attendance, though I doubt much).
So, adding to the initial teams I mentioned, or Fresno St, Las Vegas, and San Diego St.,, would result in nine teams in a new Pac conference, resullting in nine schools in a Pac Nine conference and, most importantly, having every school in the conferencl playing Las Vegas every other year, on a home and away basis. That means that the other eight schools would get to play in Las Vegas every other year, and perhaps some of thosee games could be in the Raiders new stadium.
Also, this setup would be three locations that provide very good excellent fun and recreational activities to partake in every other year (excluding fans from the Bay Area, which would only have two two new tourist locations to visit) -- Cal/Stanford (SF), San Diego, and Las Vegas
Just a thought. Just remember that Cal has a very small chance to getting into the upcoming national championship tournament next season because of the old Pac 12 not surviving. That's too bad, caused very likely in large part by hiring a bad Pac 12 commissoiner.
( will be sending this comment to AD Knowlton and maybe Chancellor Carol Crist, who I still hope to talk to about my idee to have a statue of Joe Starkey added,next to the one now standing for Kevin Moen plus a device that will show the complete video of The Play ending with Starkey's "There will be no extra point" statement, which would first be exhibiited close to a College GameDay televised game event at Cal.
I think Cal likely loses to Auburn, FuSU, NCSU and SMU. Against Miami, Cal faces an extremely talented squad, so it'll be a tough loss, barring a series of Cristobal mistakes. UCD, 'Furd and SDSU are wins. On paper a few other matchups will see Cal slightly favored (before season starts) such as maybe Syracuse and the cross-country Friday night tilt vs. WF; some will be tossups such as, I think, a highly motivated Oregon State and conceivably @ Pitt. I predict Cal comes away with somewhere between five and seven wins. Ceiling eight wins, floor four. I would take the under, with six wins my best guess. I would be more optimistic if not for the two early trips to play Auburn and FSU (gonna be two hella long plane rides home if Cal gets pummelled in East Alabama and Tallahassee), and overall cumulative effect of an insane amount of travel.
Marking down SMU as an auto loss is clown behavior. Even Auburn is not an auto loss based on last year
I'm still waiting for a coaching shake-up on the defense side of the ball. I'm miffed Wilcox hasn't done anything. Brian Kelly, at LSU, goes 10 - 3 including an exciting bowl game (I was there) and within days fires his ENTIRE defensive staff!! Yup, you read that right, the entire defensive staff. Meanwhile, Wilcox...nada.
Wilcox is pulling down the most stress free $5 million a year in the entire sporting world. Why oust your friends when you don't have to? And I am not buying comfortable wins over Wake Forest and Stanford. Dave Clawson at WF has been a far better HC than Wilcox over the past seven seasons with six straight bowl games before last year's fall-off. Stanford's comeback win in Boulder last year was something Wilcox can only dream about. I am afraid Troy Taylor is going to be a tough out going forward.
I heard Steve Wilks might have some free time
TypiCal ©Bob R 2020
I'll hope for the over, bet the under.
Go Bears!
I invented Typical in 2019!
To be honest, my first reaction here is that while the Pac12 will be missed, our place in will not. Excited to see the new completion and how we stack up. GO BEARS!
We're definitely on a Honeymoon.
May it never end.
Sounds about right for Wilcox.
I'd feel pretty confident predicting 8+ wins versus this schedule if not for the uncertainty in how the extra travel will impact us.
It will be interesting. I am more worried about the D tho. Continued lack of pressure and poor secondary play are a greater threat to the 8+ win plateau than a few long plane ride, IMO.
I guess I have some maybe false confidence that will get addressed given Wilcox's pedigree. The offense remains more of a question for me in Spav's departure, and since that side of the ball has not been Wilcox's strong suit (to say the least). But that's maybe mitigated by have good leadership on that side of the ball returning (Ott and Mendoza) and overall personnel continuity (relatively).
Wilcox has historically struggled to win on the road, and it’s for various reasons that touch on all 3 facets of the game…I mean, if it’s not the O struggling to execute, it’s the D not tackling….or it’s special teams. I mean, it’s all over the map. Now, sure it is absolutely hard to win on the road. But in 7 years as a HC, his teams have consistently struggled to put complete games together, which is the biggest thing that gives me pause when I think of them going on the road and trying to win at Wake…
You have to be mentally tough to win on the road - his teams usually aren’t that…and it comes down to culture. Cal’s a program that makes a lot of excuses…
Why you gotta harsh my mellow with real talk Jimmer?! This is the offseason. It’s all rosy until September.
That’s fair, P…my bad. Cranky from the Super Bowl.
I do feel comfortable saying 7-5 with a bowl game for the Bears, and that feels delightful.
D was on intermittent operation mode last season.
Let's hope the bugs get worked out and our offense becomes deadlier.
True. That stretch where David Reese/Xavier Carlton came alive gives me hope. But the secondary has to improve, or we need to generate more pressure to help them out.
A Wilcox statue is a scary thought.
Gobears,
Don't worry, I'm not recommending one. Only for Starkey.
All Cal needs to lessen penalties and a few fumble/ball steals to have more wins.
It's preseason, so I'll do the thing:
"WE'RE GOING UNDEFEATED. WE'RE GOING TO SHOCK THE WORLD. WE'RE GONNA WIN A NATTY!"
That's a Bear, alright!
Seems about right. I'm a bit worried that our offense will regress without Spav. Talent-wise, we won some, lost some, and will develop some.
We reloaded also. I believe that cal will do better than what the odd makers say. I believe because of how high a level cow had to play to even be competitive in the old pad 12. That is it's going to benefit The golden bears when they play teams like florida state and auburn. I'm going to place that bet cause I believe that they will reach seven wins at the minimum
Well 7-5 is more likely with the new schedule and on the whole a slightly reduced level of competition with a few exceptions
I think Wilcox will be at Cal forever with 7-5 seasons and wins over Stanford. In fact maybe there will be a bronze statue of him at the stadium steps one day.
Gobears,
Don't worry, I won't recommend one. Only for Starkey.
or in the area where the stadium used to be.
Good thing CMS been given historic site status, right?
In the community garden in the what was formerly the field.
A lot of "ifs" here. IF the Cal offense shows up like it did in the latter half of last season, and IF the defense shows up consistently like it did in the last three games of last season, THEN Cal could be a real interesting team. IF.
I don't recall Cam Ward "torching" Cal last season. Cal won the game and Ward was in a position to win the game in the last few minutes. He. didn't.