Cal football over/under set at 6.5 wins for 2024
Cal football over/under set at 6.5 wins for 2024
The California Golden Bears get a slight bump from Vegas for the switch to the ACC.
The California Golden Bears have been pretty steady for most of the Justin Wilcox era. Five regular season wins, then seven, then seven, then COVID year, then five again, then four, then six. It has been a consistent humdrum of average, slightly below average, and slightly above average results.
So it should come as no shocker that Cal’s first year in the ACC has their over/under placed at 6.5 wins (via Fanduel). When you have a track record that doesn’t deviate much, why expect a huge change?
Here is what their opponent win total list looks like from their ACC + P4 opponents, for which over/under totals were also released.
September 7: at Auburn Tigers (7.5 wins)
September 21: at Florida State Seminoles (9.5 wins)
September 28: Bye week
October 5: Miami Hurricanes (9.5 wins)
October 12: at Pittsburgh Panthers (5.5 wins)
October 19: North Carolina State Wolfpack (8.5 wins)
November 2: Bye week
November 8 (Friday): at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4.5 wins)
November 16: Syracuse Orange (6.5 wins)
November 23: Stanford (3.5 wins)
November 30: at SMU Mustangs (7.5 wins)
Regardless, based on this list, it’s a doable slate.
Oregon State and San Diego State did not have win totals released. But they are likely to be projected under six wins, given talent attrition and coaching losses. That would give Cal five games against teams projected to finish with losing FBS records.
Add in UC Davis, and three more games against teams projected to win 6 to 8 games, and Cal will have nine games where they will be favored or involved in close to pick’em games (at worst, a one-score underdog; at best, a one-score favorite).
The only game Cal will likely be significant underdogs in will be their trip to Tallahassee against Florida State. Cal will probably be solid underdogs in Auburn as well, but looking at these over/unders, you’d place it around a touchdown or so at most.
Everything is within the margin of error.
Cal’s schedule will not be a cakewalk. They will be facing DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State) and Cam Ward (Miami) again, two quarterbacks who torched the Bears last season. Coastal Carolina QB transfer Grayson McCall could turbolift NC State to the next level. Syracuse and SMU reloaded heavy in the transfer portal. Auburn is Auburn.
But this is manageable. If they play their cards right, the Bears can make noise.
What are your early thoughts on Cal’s over/under?
Gobears49
I think the increased, but not really yet recognizedd, reality that Cal faces a need to win eleven games to get into a twelve team playoff, since that reality includes the likelihood that the ACC will only get two teams, at the most, into the top twelve teams to be allowed into the FBS playoffs. This would be a good discussion topic on WFC. I c0uld be wrong, but if so I want people to tell me why.
Gobears49,
Gobears49 9:34a
I will try to make this as short as possiible, which for me is very difficult. Lots to say.
Lots of commentary out there on which teams will make the top level of othe FBS playoffs next season, which is for twelve teams. Wish I could go back and copy the fhree of four online articles on this subject, but I can't. In general, if memory serves me correct, the ACC and Big 12 are pegged to get one to three teams in the aggregate. Cal is not given much of a chance for any but for one poll, which essentailly said they have a chance, though Cal was listed in the fourth of six groups, which seems to make it almost impossible for them to make a top twelve spot.
Here's another article I read on the subject this morning just dealing with how former Pac 12 schools will do in competing with their new brethren in the Big 10 next seaon--
Says the four transferee teams to the Big 10 wil do pretty well. UCLA is rated last of the four. Persoonally, I think UCLA is going downhilland willl likely strugggle to get to the .500 level next year and so is very unlikely to get into the playoffs. But I won't go into my reasons for that, as I have things to do this morning.
What I want to get into is Cal's chances in getting into the twelve team FBS playoffs next season. I'd say it is a longshot at best, mostly because of tshe number of teams that can be selected for that honor. ( won't even spend the time adding them up. Cal does seem to be more loaded with talent than last season, but last season Cal would not have made the final top twelve teams that got into the playoffs.
All of this leads to the reason I am writing this. There seems to be some movement into recognizing that some teams on the west coast are inmproving football powers. Don't have the article that says that, but those teams listed were 1) Boise St. and 2) San Diego St. Those are two of the teams I would add to a revitalized Pac 12 (or close to it) So that would get me to six teams in the new, revised Pac 12 (or so) -- Cal, Stanford, Oregon St., Wash. St, Boise St., and San Diego St.
The other teams I initially listed a few weeks ago on this subject were Fresno St. (a good football school, so long as Tedfford is the coach there), Hawaii (a great tourist destination), and Las Vegas (the best tourist destination in the U.S. and much better than Hawaii because it is so much closer to the rest of all the teams I have mentioned.
There are a few unknowns that come into play here. The first is how much availability there would be to allow Las Vegas to play in thie new NFL stadium that was just built. I have no idea on that, and really don't know how good, and big the stadium the Las Vegas now plays in is. And I'm not going to research that. But just having a game in the curren U of Las Vegas stadium would not detract from all of the fun a visiting team supporters would have while in Vegas following their Bears.
Adding in Fresno St; and Las Vegas would get the revised Pac (Whatever) to eight teams. Additional teams could be Hawaii (but maybe only after they get the new stadium they supposedly need) and one or two addiitional teams from the up and coming Mountain West conference (see schools -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_West_Conference). Perhaps San Jose St. could be included but that might hurt Cal and Stanford a bit in their attendance, though I doubt much).
So, adding to the initial teams I mentioned, or Fresno St, Las Vegas, and San Diego St.,, would result in nine teams in a new Pac conference, resullting in nine schools in a Pac Nine conference and, most importantly, having every school in the conferencl playing Las Vegas every other year, on a home and away basis. That means that the other eight schools would get to play in Las Vegas every other year, and perhaps some of thosee games could be in the Raiders new stadium.
Also, this setup would be three locations that provide very good excellent fun and recreational activities to partake in every other year (excluding fans from the Bay Area, which would only have two two new tourist locations to visit) -- Cal/Stanford (SF), San Diego, and Las Vegas
Just a thought. Just remember that Cal has a very small chance to getting into the upcoming national championship tournament next season because of the old Pac 12 not surviving. That's too bad, caused very likely in large part by hiring a bad Pac 12 commissoiner.
( will be sending this comment to AD Knowlton and maybe Chancellor Carol Crist, who I still hope to talk to about my idee to have a statue of Joe Starkey added,next to the one now standing for Kevin Moen plus a device that will show the complete video of The Play ending with Starkey's "There will be no extra point" statement, which would first be exhibiited close to a College GameDay televised game event at Cal.