Cal football over/under set at 6.5 wins for 2024
The California Golden Bears get a slight bump from Vegas for the switch to the ACC.
The California Golden Bears have been pretty steady for most of the Justin Wilcox era. Five regular season wins, then seven, then seven, then COVID year, then five again, then four, then six. It has been a consistent humdrum of average, slightly below average, and slightly above average results.
So it should come as no shocker that Cal’s first year in the ACC has their over/under placed at 6.5 wins (via Fanduel). When you have a track record that doesn’t deviate much, why expect a huge change?
Here is what their opponent win total list looks like from their ACC + P4 opponents, for which over/under totals were also released.
September 7: at Auburn Tigers (7.5 wins)
September 21: at Florida State Seminoles (9.5 wins)
September 28: Bye week
October 5: Miami Hurricanes (9.5 wins)
October 12: at Pittsburgh Panthers (5.5 wins)
October 19: North Carolina State Wolfpack (8.5 wins)
November 2: Bye week
November 8 (Friday): at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4.5 wins)
November 16: Syracuse Orange (6.5 wins)
November 23: Stanford (3.5 wins)
November 30: at SMU Mustangs (7.5 wins)
Regardless, based on this list, it’s a doable slate.
Oregon State and San Diego State did not have win totals released. But they are likely to be projected under six wins, given talent attrition and coaching losses. That would give Cal five games against teams projected to finish with losing FBS records.
Add in UC Davis, and three more games against teams projected to win 6 to 8 games, and Cal will have nine games where they will be favored or involved in close to pick’em games (at worst, a one-score underdog; at best, a one-score favorite).
The only game Cal will likely be significant underdogs in will be their trip to Tallahassee against Florida State. Cal will probably be solid underdogs in Auburn as well, but looking at these over/unders, you’d place it around a touchdown or so at most.
Everything is within the margin of error.
Cal’s schedule will not be a cakewalk. They will be facing DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State) and Cam Ward (Miami) again, two quarterbacks who torched the Bears last season. Coastal Carolina QB transfer Grayson McCall could turbolift NC State to the next level. Syracuse and SMU reloaded heavy in the transfer portal. Auburn is Auburn.
But this is manageable. If they play their cards right, the Bears can make noise.
What are your early thoughts on Cal’s over/under?
It's preseason, so I'll do the thing:
"WE'RE GOING UNDEFEATED. WE'RE GOING TO SHOCK THE WORLD. WE'RE GONNA WIN A NATTY!"
A lot of "ifs" here. IF the Cal offense shows up like it did in the latter half of last season, and IF the defense shows up consistently like it did in the last three games of last season, THEN Cal could be a real interesting team. IF.