Here's some information on position values. This should provide some context for our recruitment strategy. Losing LBs and RBs aren't the end of the world. Signing an EDGE and (retaining a) QB is huge. We'll probably need to spend a fortune on OTs and, if we're serious about upgrading, WRs.
He's good but I think we can get equal or better talent. Hard to tell if he's overestimating his value or hitting the market when he perceives his value is as at its peak. Technically not mutually exclusive.
Sure but that’s such an easier role to fill. This is now Moneyball - KR just rode 6-games of Cal’s backfield injuries into a career year….he SHOULD absolutely capitalize on that, as some school is gonna overpay based on the high-volume stats.
But that school should not be Cal because they have bigger holes...if you’re paying top $$$, you need more from that position, IMO.
It’s more a factor of the portal and ease of movement. It’s like a yearly do-over for these kids.
Plenty of guys left under Wilcox, too. Were he still here you’re likely seeing the same thing because why wouldn’t you at least test the waters? Most of these guys need to make their $$$ now.
Might JKS change his mind if enough others leave?? Much is going to depend on whether the new regime are successful in bringing in enough new players to be competitive. There's no guarantee.
I get we are all about player agency now, but there needs to be some change to make this also fun for the fans. It isn’t fair to us (or any fan base) that we should have absolutely zero continuity every year. There has to be a balance.
Fun for the fans, WTF is that? This is about moneyball, no one gives a shit about the fans ~ hello!! That era done and gone. Once "fatigue" (no one gives a shit) sets in, the super league will be formed and the vast majority of America won't give a shit (East / West coasts). Major TV markets are not in big ten or SEC territory. Let them have their super league, most of America will not be watching. THEN, a disruptor will come in and create leagues for the mass media markets. May take 20 years (I'll likely be dead) but this super league model with teams from middle america and the south won't survive. Most of their fan bases reside in the same geographical location as well. Let it play out come back in 20. (My guess is by then football won't be that popular and China will be the second language in the USA).
Confirmation of McCulloch's departure is really depressing. If there's anything positive, he followed his position coach to UCLA. I hope the same will happen for Tosh's Oregon players.
We'll see what happens. Impossible to know who is just testing the waters to see what they're worth and who is serious about leaving. Other programs can communicate with players ONLY while they're in the portal. The designers of the system miscalibrated how weak the "soft" barriers to portal entry were.
It is possible that many of these guys are overestimating their worth, which would result in some self-correcting lessons that haven't been learned yet in this era.
"It is possible that many of these guys are overestimating their worth, which would result in some self-correcting lessons that haven't been learned yet in this era."
This was evident last year already. As I am sure you are aware, for a majority of players that enter the portal...it doesn't end well.
Some of these guys are for sure getting bad advice. The portal does have a lot of interesting market dynamics so there will be some bad luck too. Kinda interesting how the market is evolving each year. I think this is the first year where there's no spring portal so players are making decisions based on less information than before. At least being in the portal will get you some info.
I think the most stable situation would be a "contact window" where players can be contacted by other programs for, say, 2-3 weeks before the portal opens. It would also push the portal window back enough to fit the playoff. And maybe some feedback will give players a reason to participate in their bowl games.
As recently as a decade ago, a new coach would be given a year or two grace period to put their team together and institute their “system.” Obviously, the transfer portal has accelerated this process.
However, given Tosh chose and negotiated to stay at Oregon through their playoff run (and Cal agreed), 2026 will be a transitional year. I expect Tosh will have his players and system in 2027.
Well, I don't quite agree with that. I think the ACC and/or Big 12 sticks around in some form and Cal likely remains there after the next realignment (2030 or so). Probably the playoff structure also remains similar to what it is now, so there will still be opportunities to compete there.
That's just my guess, though. The B1G/SEC super-league that walls off everyone else is also possible. I'm just not sure I buy that this is happening soon.
IMO, ESPN has already devalued the ACC and B12 enough that the schools which do remain in them once Clemson/FSU/UNC etc. bolt will be closer to your G5 programs than they will the B1G/SEC super-league. And that entity will take up most of the CFP bids, leaving schools like Cal to compete with, what, 80-100 other schools for maybe 1-2 spots?
What’s happened in Corvallis is a scary blueprint. But is this situation reserved solely for football, or is it ALL sports?
My expectation is that the B1G and/or SEC take a handful of schools from the ACC and then the ACC backfills. Maybe with the best remaining G5s or from the Big 12 (and then the B12 backfills with G5s). Money wouldn't be as good as right now but would be better than what OSU/WSU can command.
Playoff will be expanded a bit, so the new ACC would get its champion in pretty much all the time, and would get another bid or two in some years. IMO ESPN doesn't want these second-tier leagues to fall apart completely. They like having all of the inventory to show on football Saturdays. They will prop it up and keep them in the mix somehow.
It's a program reboot. I wouldn't be surprised if Tosh's intensity rubbed Wilcox's players the wrong way, in addition to using the portal to show him your value. My money is on more of these players coming back out of the portal than usual. But if not, we should expect a 2-3 year process to get to where we want to be either way.
I mean, you could see it on the field and in the portal….the penalties, the sloppiness. Ott & Jet bolting because Harsin was a hard ass.
Hoping Tosh brings more toughness, more speed, more accountability.
But I fear this portal madness is gonna make it hard for Cal to survive. There’s no system to fit guys into currently. Cignetti could plug guys into his system and then scheduled cupcakes. .
I feel you. A lot of unknowns, other than Tosh's personality / work ethic / standard, which we're counting on to be the foundation and guiding principle of his teams.. It's high risk high reward. I'm lowering my expectations for year 1, after the initial hype, and defaulting to being optimistic about the multi year process, remembering that Ron is also there along with reborn institutional support.
right after the bowl game I questioned if Ferrelli was transferring given how soft he played in the game. I wasn't right in my call, he was wrong in his PLAY!!
yup, I also hope we can have a consistent budget each year. like, we don't happen to have a relatively large one from the donor surge this year. then overpay for players, or get premium players without the system, then cant match the payroll in year 2-3 once we have a system and are actually ready for that talent.
Wow! This is scary. Our front 7 are all portaging out. They were the best part of our defense. Oh well. The NIL and portal are ruining college major sports. There is little loyalty and team identity left.
Don't forget, these players got rocked by a weak, bad Stanford team. Not exactly a huge loss if they leave. They're doing Tosh a big favor -- he can bring in the players he wants without having to carry the ones in the portal that he doesn't want.
Here's some information on position values. This should provide some context for our recruitment strategy. Losing LBs and RBs aren't the end of the world. Signing an EDGE and (retaining a) QB is huge. We'll probably need to spend a fortune on OTs and, if we're serious about upgrading, WRs.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/what-the-transfer-portal-costs-now-position-by-position-price-ranges-amid-a-market-surge/
Kendrick Raphael is going portalling now too. :(
He's good but I think we can get equal or better talent. Hard to tell if he's overestimating his value or hitting the market when he perceives his value is as at its peak. Technically not mutually exclusive.
Not sad about that actually
Really ok with that.
Solid plow horse but we need more speed out of that position.
I think we also need a plow horse. You can't have enough quality players and he can fill a definite role.
Sure but that’s such an easier role to fill. This is now Moneyball - KR just rode 6-games of Cal’s backfield injuries into a career year….he SHOULD absolutely capitalize on that, as some school is gonna overpay based on the high-volume stats.
But that school should not be Cal because they have bigger holes...if you’re paying top $$$, you need more from that position, IMO.
Kendrick Raphael to the portal.
Looks like we got an EDGE from aTm. Solomon Williams, 3 years remaining.
https://www.on3.com/rivals/solomon-williams-153743/
Good news, tho the “3 years remaining” seems no longer relevant…;-)
Musical diplomas. No one knows where they'll be when they graduate!
Wonder if/how much the graduation rate has declined in this new era.
Doing fine, including for football. Though it is possible that quality has changed.
https://www.ncaa.org/news/2025/11/19/media-center-ncaa-graduation-rates-remain-high.aspx
Did many of us underestimate the team support Wilcox had? Or is this just routine shuffling off because of a change of leadership?
It’s more a factor of the portal and ease of movement. It’s like a yearly do-over for these kids.
Plenty of guys left under Wilcox, too. Were he still here you’re likely seeing the same thing because why wouldn’t you at least test the waters? Most of these guys need to make their $$$ now.
As I understand it, about 1/3 of the sum of all rosters is in the Portal.
Something like 4500 kids. That’s outrageous….what are we even doing here!
The portal giveth and the portal taketh away. I need to see more of the first part and less of the second part.
Marshall just tweeted this a few minutes ago: https://x.com/MWCherrington/status/2007913048410103983
Could maybe be referring to a successful visit by Rutgers WR Ian Strong: https://x.com/Hayesfawcett3/status/2007853995553869852
NEWS: Rutgers transfer WR Ian Strong just ended his visit at Cal and is set to visit Notre Dame this week, he tells On3Sports
The 6’3 210 WR has totaled 95 catches for 1,438 yards & 10 TDs the last 2 seasons
He’s the No. 2 WR in the On3 Portal Rankings
Oh no, we're in Dire Straits and our money is going for nothing! DOOOOOOOOM!
RIP MTV
Is JKS staying? Yes? Cool, because no other individual player leaving actually matters, not even Cade.
Might JKS change his mind if enough others leave?? Much is going to depend on whether the new regime are successful in bringing in enough new players to be competitive. There's no guarantee.
Even if we retain JKS this month, there will be another portal opening in spring
They eliminated the spring transfer portal. This is now the only one.
Oh I didn't know that. That's good.
I get we are all about player agency now, but there needs to be some change to make this also fun for the fans. It isn’t fair to us (or any fan base) that we should have absolutely zero continuity every year. There has to be a balance.
That said, if it weren't for NIL we wouldn't be able to rebuild in a year.
Cignetti did with the combo of NIL and portal.
But he had an offensive system & players who traveled…we don’t.
Fun for the fans, WTF is that? This is about moneyball, no one gives a shit about the fans ~ hello!! That era done and gone. Once "fatigue" (no one gives a shit) sets in, the super league will be formed and the vast majority of America won't give a shit (East / West coasts). Major TV markets are not in big ten or SEC territory. Let them have their super league, most of America will not be watching. THEN, a disruptor will come in and create leagues for the mass media markets. May take 20 years (I'll likely be dead) but this super league model with teams from middle america and the south won't survive. Most of their fan bases reside in the same geographical location as well. Let it play out come back in 20. (My guess is by then football won't be that popular and China will be the second language in the USA).
This is kind of a ridiculous comment overall although I agree with the overarching statement that it’s all about the money now.
Maybe if you didn’t say the last sentence, it would have helped your cause.
Players get paid. Schools get paid. Now fans should get paid too. If we get paid, I'm going to accept the reality of college football.
💯
Plus this model is unsustainable….fatigue will set in. Donors are going to get tired of giving $$$ to players just to watch them leave every season.
UCLA always tries so hard to take our players. If the players from Cal they’re willing to over pay by miles just to hold it over us.
Confirmation of McCulloch's departure is really depressing. If there's anything positive, he followed his position coach to UCLA. I hope the same will happen for Tosh's Oregon players.
I'm stunned he's following So'oto ~ he ain't much of a coach. LB success in recent years has been due to Sirmon.
We'll see what happens. Impossible to know who is just testing the waters to see what they're worth and who is serious about leaving. Other programs can communicate with players ONLY while they're in the portal. The designers of the system miscalibrated how weak the "soft" barriers to portal entry were.
It is possible that many of these guys are overestimating their worth, which would result in some self-correcting lessons that haven't been learned yet in this era.
"It is possible that many of these guys are overestimating their worth, which would result in some self-correcting lessons that haven't been learned yet in this era."
This was evident last year already. As I am sure you are aware, for a majority of players that enter the portal...it doesn't end well.
1/3 of all FBS are in the Portal.
Last year some Portalers got stranded because they overplayed their hands.
I think asshat agents are behind much of these bread-in-the-water Portalings.
Some of these guys are for sure getting bad advice. The portal does have a lot of interesting market dynamics so there will be some bad luck too. Kinda interesting how the market is evolving each year. I think this is the first year where there's no spring portal so players are making decisions based on less information than before. At least being in the portal will get you some info.
I think the most stable situation would be a "contact window" where players can be contacted by other programs for, say, 2-3 weeks before the portal opens. It would also push the portal window back enough to fit the playoff. And maybe some feedback will give players a reason to participate in their bowl games.
As recently as a decade ago, a new coach would be given a year or two grace period to put their team together and institute their “system.” Obviously, the transfer portal has accelerated this process.
However, given Tosh chose and negotiated to stay at Oregon through their playoff run (and Cal agreed), 2026 will be a transitional year. I expect Tosh will have his players and system in 2027.
The chances of Cal getting left behind in the next realignment continue to grow. It’s just the reality of the times.
Honestly, we are already left behind. We're trying to win in the mid-tier league now
Why do you say this?
The ACC and Big 12 are the mid-tier leagues.
Yup, agreed. It’s already likely too late. The Knowlton era did irreparable damage…Cal had the worst possible leaders at the worst time imaginable.
Fear our future looks a lot more like Wazzu/Oregon State than it does Indiana.
Well, I don't quite agree with that. I think the ACC and/or Big 12 sticks around in some form and Cal likely remains there after the next realignment (2030 or so). Probably the playoff structure also remains similar to what it is now, so there will still be opportunities to compete there.
That's just my guess, though. The B1G/SEC super-league that walls off everyone else is also possible. I'm just not sure I buy that this is happening soon.
Yep, nobody has a crystal ball.
IMO, ESPN has already devalued the ACC and B12 enough that the schools which do remain in them once Clemson/FSU/UNC etc. bolt will be closer to your G5 programs than they will the B1G/SEC super-league. And that entity will take up most of the CFP bids, leaving schools like Cal to compete with, what, 80-100 other schools for maybe 1-2 spots?
What’s happened in Corvallis is a scary blueprint. But is this situation reserved solely for football, or is it ALL sports?
My expectation is that the B1G and/or SEC take a handful of schools from the ACC and then the ACC backfills. Maybe with the best remaining G5s or from the Big 12 (and then the B12 backfills with G5s). Money wouldn't be as good as right now but would be better than what OSU/WSU can command.
Playoff will be expanded a bit, so the new ACC would get its champion in pretty much all the time, and would get another bid or two in some years. IMO ESPN doesn't want these second-tier leagues to fall apart completely. They like having all of the inventory to show on football Saturdays. They will prop it up and keep them in the mix somehow.
Yeah global warming isn't reversing any time soon.
I hope he has the players and system in 2026.
It's a program reboot. I wouldn't be surprised if Tosh's intensity rubbed Wilcox's players the wrong way, in addition to using the portal to show him your value. My money is on more of these players coming back out of the portal than usual. But if not, we should expect a 2-3 year process to get to where we want to be either way.
Wilcox players are soft.
these players are from the "participation" little league trophies of course they are soft.
Ouchie
I mean, you could see it on the field and in the portal….the penalties, the sloppiness. Ott & Jet bolting because Harsin was a hard ass.
Hoping Tosh brings more toughness, more speed, more accountability.
But I fear this portal madness is gonna make it hard for Cal to survive. There’s no system to fit guys into currently. Cignetti could plug guys into his system and then scheduled cupcakes. .
I feel you. A lot of unknowns, other than Tosh's personality / work ethic / standard, which we're counting on to be the foundation and guiding principle of his teams.. It's high risk high reward. I'm lowering my expectations for year 1, after the initial hype, and defaulting to being optimistic about the multi year process, remembering that Ron is also there along with reborn institutional support.
right after the bowl game I questioned if Ferrelli was transferring given how soft he played in the game. I wasn't right in my call, he was wrong in his PLAY!!
I think NEXT year’s portal is gonna be huge. Can we keep guys he brought in this year and develop a roster and culture?
This current exodus is unfortunately to be expected given the lack of rules.
yup, I also hope we can have a consistent budget each year. like, we don't happen to have a relatively large one from the donor surge this year. then overpay for players, or get premium players without the system, then cant match the payroll in year 2-3 once we have a system and are actually ready for that talent.
Let's hope that our new coaches know how to get the best out of whoever we end up with.
Wow! This is scary. Our front 7 are all portaging out. They were the best part of our defense. Oh well. The NIL and portal are ruining college major sports. There is little loyalty and team identity left.
And this JUST came to you now??
Don't forget, these players got rocked by a weak, bad Stanford team. Not exactly a huge loss if they leave. They're doing Tosh a big favor -- he can bring in the players he wants without having to carry the ones in the portal that he doesn't want.
True……”little” is probably being generous. The TP/NIL system is systemically broken: in the truest sense of the phrase
I didn’t think they were that good at stopping the run
To be fair, our starters were injured for most of the year.
Maybe we should just list the players who aren’t in the portal to save Internet space