Cal Football’s 2026 Offensive Identity: Part 3

Intro

Cal has entered the home stretch of the 2026 season sitting at a 3-6 record and needing to win out to qualify for a bowl game. It has been, to put it mildly, disastrous. So disastrous, that I question the utility in turning to the data to compare these first nine games to Cal’s thirteen games in 2025. Nevertheless, we persist. I will note trends based on my previous analysis from after this season’s game against UNLV.

Playcalls

Question: What proportion of playcalls are passes vs. runs?

Here are the playcalls so far with the 2025 offense in blue and the 2026 offense in gold:

Our run/pass ratio is now identical in the first and second halves, similar to last season. Since playing UNLV, we have been passing more in the back half of our games, though if you watched them, you’d know that it’s due to desperate/garbage time playcalling kicking in.

Here are the playcalls divided by quarter:

Like I said, desperate/garbage time uptick in throwing the ball.

Passing

Question: How has the passing game looked against each opponent?

The boxplots here plot receptions by game and season. (Here is a helpful refresher on how to read boxplots.) Games with more completions are listed higher up on the graph.

Note that we are not completing very many passes beyond 10 yards. Some of the gold boxes are quite small (especially Wake Forest and NC State), indicating that there is not a ton of variation in the yardage that our completed passes are picking up. Remember that for later.

Question: How distributed is our passing game among the receiver room?

Below I disaggregate the data to show receptions by player and season. I only include receivers averaging at least one catch per game. 2026 players need to have made at least nine catches thus far, and 2025 players need to have made thirteen catches over the course of last season. Players with more catches per game are listed first.

In terms of volume and expected yardage per catch, Chase Hendricks has emerged as this year’s Jacob De Jesus. We also see a ton of pass catchers lower on the list this year as injuries have forced us to utilize running backs Adam Mohammed, Ashten Emory, and Anthony League as receivers (with minimal upside).

Question: How does the passing game compare to last year overall?

Here’s a box plot summarizing the information for the teams as a whole.

This is a sobering one. We are averaging fewer yards per completion this year compared to last. The smaller width of the gold box compared to the blue also indicates there’s not much variation in yardage per completed pass. In other words, we have regressed, and we are predictable.

Running

Question: How has the run game looked against each opponent?

The boxplots here plot runs by game and season. Games with more runs are listed higher up on the graph.

I simply must point out the incredible run for a 35 yard loss against Virginia Tech throwing off the graphic. In keeping with our (much belated) pivot toward the pass, each of the last four games fall in the bottom five of runs attempted this year.

Question: How distributed is our run game among rushers?

Below I disaggregate the data to show runs by player and season. I only include runners averaging at least one run per game.

Ashten Emory has shot up in rushing attempts since Adam Mohammed focused on recovering from injury. Though based on the yardage he’s averaging, he’s the clear RB2.

Question: How does the run game compare to last year overall?

Here’s a box plot summarizing the information for the teams as a whole.

Not much of a difference has emerged from the previous analysis. Cal’s rushing offense is more or less matching last year’s average output.

Conclusion and Questions

It’s been a tough few weeks for the Cal faithful. I found myself yearning for the close losses I’d become accustomed to under Justin Wilcox — losses that enraged me but at least allowed me the dignity of believing in “almost.” These blowout losses to mostly unimpressive teams have given me a new feeling watching this team: boredom.

This is not me giving up. The program has made clear what is needed to survive realignment. Butts in seats. Eyes on screens. I’ll continue to do my part. I just wish it could be fun again.

Go Bears.