You are confusing The Portal with NIL Budgets. The Portal currently makes a player immediately eligible to practice and play.
Colorado Used The Coach and Cash as currency. Cal used a Degree from The University of California Berkeley as currency to obtain these new players thru The Transfer Portal.
Perhaps the bright minds at Write For Cal LLC can deliver data that shows exactly how under gunned we are from an NIL Dollars standpoint. But, I am confident in saying that there are dozens of individual players on other teams making more than our entire roster!
IMO, the portal and NIL are synonymous. Players enter the portal for two things: playing time and NIL opportunities. It is naive to think all those portal transfers came to Cal simply for a Cal degree.
I find all of your analytics and interpretations to be fun to read, but 90% of this issue you do not touch upon. This is ALL ABOUT NIL!
Cal has had some great seasons over the years. Those teams had recruits that were well evaluated. Those days are over in Berkeley. If Cal makes a great evaluation, we cannot keep him, and he will go elsewhere for a larger NIL Deal. So, retention of talent is an issue, but the real culprit is how NIL has helped our opponents:
1) At UW, things can get out of hand really quickly, and that happened to us. I played there twice, and lost 50 to 7 both times! But Penix came to Seattle, with his Coach, knowing the offense and getting a nice NIL Deal. This kid is a likely first rounder, and at least one WR is a first round talent. Our pass D is playing well enough under normal/past circumstances, but Penix is so good and dropping dimes!
2) Oregon State-This isn't your parents Oregon State! Like The Huskies, Great Coaches, and a nice collection of players. But DJU throws it about as well as anyone in the country, and good coaches hide his flaws, while he too threw amazing balls against OK coverage on really fast WRs that have ball skills. DJU is and has always been a Big NIL Ticket.
These are just a few examples, but it is the truth a virtually every position.
The Wilcox Era that you call 7 Years... Really?
There are only two Eras when it comes to College Football. They are PRE NIL and POST NIL.
Cal Has Excellent Coaches. Cal Has Good Players That Happen To Be Excellent People. And They Play Their Butts Off, and Compete to The End.
The Pac12 is thriving this year. Why? Not because ten teams are headed to the Big10, Big12, and ACC. But because the conference is now, finally able to compete on a level (NIL-Pay4PLAY) playing field. Or Not, like our current situation at Cal.
Your Analytics work great in the professional leagues where there is a salary cap and a draft. How would The Warriors be doing against The Lakers if they had 1/10th the budget to pay players?
I for one like watching The Bears compete, and when they take games from more highly paid teams, it feels even better!
Cal brought in the second most NIL players in the Pac12 this offseason, only behind Colorado. Our starting lineup is full of NIL players and some of our top rotational players, are NIL players.
The issue is coaching, we have average to poor coaching, especially at head coach.
If you were to rank all the current Pac12 coaches, Wilcox would probably rank 10th on that list.
Peter Sirmon is not a good coordinator. Seems like Wilcox will be back next year no matter how the rest of this season goes, if that is the case time to bring in a new defensive coordinator. Would also be smart to choose just one db coach and bring in a real special teams coordinator. All those staff changes would greatly help the defense, as last week special teams did not make the defenses job any easier as Oregon State was almost constantly in 4 down territory.
Zero faith in Wilcox to make the right call. None. Special teams has been a mess for years yet he’s done nothing to identify it as an issue and has consistently failed to be proactive to address it. Calls his competency as a head coach into question.
The program will continue to stagnate so long as he is here. Would love to hear the Wilcox excuse-makers try and explain why there is ANY reason to think he can turn this program around after 7 years of steady decline. There is none - the donors will have to come up with the cash to buy him out.
Really hope you're right about Wilcox being bought out after this season but would be shocked if it actually happened. Thats why I was more thinking about changes that could improve chances of winning next year given its very likely Wilcox will be back
Agreed, it’s unlikely but after awhile it literally becomes a matter of survival for the entire athletic program. With another 4-8 season year all but a certainty, he’s coaching for his job in our inaugural season in the ACC…not an ideal time.
From what we’ve seen in the 7 years, he cannot be trusted to make the right call to fix the problems. He’s inept.
"Another 4-8 season year old but a certainty" we're 3-3 and just landed on a QB who can actually help us score a good amount of points, handed OSU the most points they allowed the entire year, and kept us in a game against the #15 team in the country when our defense and ST were awful. Who knows what will happen with fluky ball bounces or injuries on opposing teams (including an uncertain QB situation for our opponent Saturday), if we at least get more regular touch backs, or if something on defense clicks. Suffice to say 4-8 might happen, but this team could easily pull off multiple upsets and make a bowl too.
I always applaud your relentless positivity, misguided as I find it to be, but I ask you this: Who? Who do we upset? Not sure how many other P12 teams you have watched play, but gimme a path to one W other than 'Furd beyond "who knows what will happen with fluky ball bounces."
Maybe in the past, when the P12 was down, Wilcox could ugly out an upset win behind a nearly-elite D. We don't have that anymore - our D has given up 50+ in 2 of 3 games and is far from elite. We can't get to the opposing QB and our special teams is a disaster. There are clear issues with this program from a preparation, execution and adjustment standpoint. There's enough data on 6.5 years of Wilcox to fairly accurately predict the season's results, considering we're going to be double-digit dogs in half of them, and our O is a work in progress and could be without Ott and Vatikani.
So I ask you, what in Wilcox have YOU seen that makes you think he can turn this program around?
I'm not necessarily confident he can "turn this program around" in the broad sense, but he did have an 8-5 year where we were dealing with QB issues and at one point were 4-4 before finishing the year 4-1. It's also notable that that year (2019), Garbers was 7-1 as a starter and Modster/Brasch were 1-4. Plenty of football teams have "turned the corner" midseason throughout history; I think Saturday was a turning point for the offense and hopefully something on defense and/or ST will click enough to at least keep us in competitive games. We were a couple fluky turnovers away from Saturday coming down to the wire… Even if some future close games are Sonny-ball, they'll still be close games where we'll have a chance.
Recognizing that computer models are imperfect, FPI – which includes five games' of data with not-Mendoza at QB – has us going 5.2-6.8, with a 38% chance at a bowl. We have a roughly 1-in-4 chance to beat Utah, same for USC, are slightly favored vs. WSU, heavily favored vs. Stanford, and have a roughly 1-in-3 chance against UCLA. Oregon is a damn near impossible task (7.2%). So do with that what you will…
You are confusing The Portal with NIL Budgets. The Portal currently makes a player immediately eligible to practice and play.
Colorado Used The Coach and Cash as currency. Cal used a Degree from The University of California Berkeley as currency to obtain these new players thru The Transfer Portal.
Perhaps the bright minds at Write For Cal LLC can deliver data that shows exactly how under gunned we are from an NIL Dollars standpoint. But, I am confident in saying that there are dozens of individual players on other teams making more than our entire roster!
IMO, the portal and NIL are synonymous. Players enter the portal for two things: playing time and NIL opportunities. It is naive to think all those portal transfers came to Cal simply for a Cal degree.
I knew our defense was underachieving but those are some Andy Buh defensive numbers.
I find all of your analytics and interpretations to be fun to read, but 90% of this issue you do not touch upon. This is ALL ABOUT NIL!
Cal has had some great seasons over the years. Those teams had recruits that were well evaluated. Those days are over in Berkeley. If Cal makes a great evaluation, we cannot keep him, and he will go elsewhere for a larger NIL Deal. So, retention of talent is an issue, but the real culprit is how NIL has helped our opponents:
1) At UW, things can get out of hand really quickly, and that happened to us. I played there twice, and lost 50 to 7 both times! But Penix came to Seattle, with his Coach, knowing the offense and getting a nice NIL Deal. This kid is a likely first rounder, and at least one WR is a first round talent. Our pass D is playing well enough under normal/past circumstances, but Penix is so good and dropping dimes!
2) Oregon State-This isn't your parents Oregon State! Like The Huskies, Great Coaches, and a nice collection of players. But DJU throws it about as well as anyone in the country, and good coaches hide his flaws, while he too threw amazing balls against OK coverage on really fast WRs that have ball skills. DJU is and has always been a Big NIL Ticket.
These are just a few examples, but it is the truth a virtually every position.
The Wilcox Era that you call 7 Years... Really?
There are only two Eras when it comes to College Football. They are PRE NIL and POST NIL.
Cal Has Excellent Coaches. Cal Has Good Players That Happen To Be Excellent People. And They Play Their Butts Off, and Compete to The End.
The Pac12 is thriving this year. Why? Not because ten teams are headed to the Big10, Big12, and ACC. But because the conference is now, finally able to compete on a level (NIL-Pay4PLAY) playing field. Or Not, like our current situation at Cal.
Your Analytics work great in the professional leagues where there is a salary cap and a draft. How would The Warriors be doing against The Lakers if they had 1/10th the budget to pay players?
I for one like watching The Bears compete, and when they take games from more highly paid teams, it feels even better!
Cal brought in the second most NIL players in the Pac12 this offseason, only behind Colorado. Our starting lineup is full of NIL players and some of our top rotational players, are NIL players.
The issue is coaching, we have average to poor coaching, especially at head coach.
If you were to rank all the current Pac12 coaches, Wilcox would probably rank 10th on that list.
Peter Sirmon is not a good coordinator. Seems like Wilcox will be back next year no matter how the rest of this season goes, if that is the case time to bring in a new defensive coordinator. Would also be smart to choose just one db coach and bring in a real special teams coordinator. All those staff changes would greatly help the defense, as last week special teams did not make the defenses job any easier as Oregon State was almost constantly in 4 down territory.
Zero faith in Wilcox to make the right call. None. Special teams has been a mess for years yet he’s done nothing to identify it as an issue and has consistently failed to be proactive to address it. Calls his competency as a head coach into question.
The program will continue to stagnate so long as he is here. Would love to hear the Wilcox excuse-makers try and explain why there is ANY reason to think he can turn this program around after 7 years of steady decline. There is none - the donors will have to come up with the cash to buy him out.
Really hope you're right about Wilcox being bought out after this season but would be shocked if it actually happened. Thats why I was more thinking about changes that could improve chances of winning next year given its very likely Wilcox will be back
Agreed, it’s unlikely but after awhile it literally becomes a matter of survival for the entire athletic program. With another 4-8 season year all but a certainty, he’s coaching for his job in our inaugural season in the ACC…not an ideal time.
From what we’ve seen in the 7 years, he cannot be trusted to make the right call to fix the problems. He’s inept.
"Another 4-8 season year old but a certainty" we're 3-3 and just landed on a QB who can actually help us score a good amount of points, handed OSU the most points they allowed the entire year, and kept us in a game against the #15 team in the country when our defense and ST were awful. Who knows what will happen with fluky ball bounces or injuries on opposing teams (including an uncertain QB situation for our opponent Saturday), if we at least get more regular touch backs, or if something on defense clicks. Suffice to say 4-8 might happen, but this team could easily pull off multiple upsets and make a bowl too.
Anyway, you remind me of this Fansville commercial https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxq5mXhHPlw
Chairs:
I always applaud your relentless positivity, misguided as I find it to be, but I ask you this: Who? Who do we upset? Not sure how many other P12 teams you have watched play, but gimme a path to one W other than 'Furd beyond "who knows what will happen with fluky ball bounces."
Maybe in the past, when the P12 was down, Wilcox could ugly out an upset win behind a nearly-elite D. We don't have that anymore - our D has given up 50+ in 2 of 3 games and is far from elite. We can't get to the opposing QB and our special teams is a disaster. There are clear issues with this program from a preparation, execution and adjustment standpoint. There's enough data on 6.5 years of Wilcox to fairly accurately predict the season's results, considering we're going to be double-digit dogs in half of them, and our O is a work in progress and could be without Ott and Vatikani.
So I ask you, what in Wilcox have YOU seen that makes you think he can turn this program around?
I'm not necessarily confident he can "turn this program around" in the broad sense, but he did have an 8-5 year where we were dealing with QB issues and at one point were 4-4 before finishing the year 4-1. It's also notable that that year (2019), Garbers was 7-1 as a starter and Modster/Brasch were 1-4. Plenty of football teams have "turned the corner" midseason throughout history; I think Saturday was a turning point for the offense and hopefully something on defense and/or ST will click enough to at least keep us in competitive games. We were a couple fluky turnovers away from Saturday coming down to the wire… Even if some future close games are Sonny-ball, they'll still be close games where we'll have a chance.
Recognizing that computer models are imperfect, FPI – which includes five games' of data with not-Mendoza at QB – has us going 5.2-6.8, with a 38% chance at a bowl. We have a roughly 1-in-4 chance to beat Utah, same for USC, are slightly favored vs. WSU, heavily favored vs. Stanford, and have a roughly 1-in-3 chance against UCLA. Oregon is a damn near impossible task (7.2%). So do with that what you will…
I miss Clay Helton.
Watch us go 6-6 or 7-5 in a weaker ACC next year and Knowlton gives Wilcox a 5-year extension based on improved results.
F*ck around and find out. We need answers fast or we're 1-2 years out from watching Furd cruise right past us again.
More like “Extend Wilcox and find out”.