Proud as hell of this men's team but our metrics are stubbornly refusing to improve. That leaves very little margin for error. Let's try and calculate a few scenarios, with the given that losing both our remaining Q1 games or either Q3 game all but permanently knocks us out.
Scenario 1: Cal wins all our remaining games, finishing the regular season with a 23-8 record and an 11-7 conference record, netting the 8th seed in the ACCT. We play a neutral court Q1 game against SMU. Do we need to win that game? A win there almost certainly secures a tournament bid; a loss gives us a 6-6 Q1 record, which is probably good enough to make the play-in round but still leaves some room for doubt.
Scenario 2: Same as above, but Louisville stumbles down the stretch and Cal instead finishes 7th in the conference. We're now playing a Q2 game in our first ACCT game and losing carries a lot more peril. I think it becomes a must-win, and even then there's still a small chance we're in the First Four Out. On the plus side, the odds of upsetting Virginia in the quarterfinals are a but better than facing Duke.
Scenario 3: Cal splits the remaining Q1s and finishes 22-9, 10-8 in conference and the 9th seed in the tournament. We're back in for a SMU/Louisville rematch, and that game is a must-win. I think that probably puts us on the right side of the bubble but it's very much no sure thing.
Scenario 4: Cal goes 3-1 with a win over SMU, but FSU wins out and passes us up in the standings. With a 10th place finish, we play Notre Dame/Pitt on the first day in a 100% must-win game. SMU/Louisville the next day is also a must-win, but a 2-1 ACCT performance and a 24-10 record is a bit more likely to make the big dance than in Scenario #3.
Scenario 5: Absolute chaos*. Cal finishes 3-1 with a loss to Wake, FSU wins out to finish 10-8, and Louisville drops games at Clemson and Miami to finish 10-8. In this scenario, FSU wins the tiebteak against Louisville and takes the 7th seed. Cal then has our unhelpful first round game, followed by an almost as unhelpful 7/10 game against FSU. In this nightmare scenario, we miss out on a Q1 opportunity and probably miss the tournament unless we knock off Virginia in the quarterfinals.
Basically, I think we need to reach the ACCT quarterfinals to feel at least somewhat optimistic about our March Madness odds. It all starts tonight at 7!
*The true absolute chaos situation involves all this and VA Tech winning out, but that would mean the Hokies winning road games at both UNC and Virginia and that's just too much to ask with the rest of the nonsense already happening.
I'm not going to say it's entirely on Dort's shoulders. But it's going to be tough without him, both for his defensive talent and adding more depth to the position.
That blows. My high school basketball team generates that much every game! That's a good metric of how far Cal Basketball has come since the Wyking Jones/Mark Fox fiasco. I'm hoping for an NCAA berth but, if not, even the NIT would be nothing to sneeze at considering where we were not too long ago.
Proud as hell of this men's team but our metrics are stubbornly refusing to improve. That leaves very little margin for error. Let's try and calculate a few scenarios, with the given that losing both our remaining Q1 games or either Q3 game all but permanently knocks us out.
Scenario 1: Cal wins all our remaining games, finishing the regular season with a 23-8 record and an 11-7 conference record, netting the 8th seed in the ACCT. We play a neutral court Q1 game against SMU. Do we need to win that game? A win there almost certainly secures a tournament bid; a loss gives us a 6-6 Q1 record, which is probably good enough to make the play-in round but still leaves some room for doubt.
Scenario 2: Same as above, but Louisville stumbles down the stretch and Cal instead finishes 7th in the conference. We're now playing a Q2 game in our first ACCT game and losing carries a lot more peril. I think it becomes a must-win, and even then there's still a small chance we're in the First Four Out. On the plus side, the odds of upsetting Virginia in the quarterfinals are a but better than facing Duke.
Scenario 3: Cal splits the remaining Q1s and finishes 22-9, 10-8 in conference and the 9th seed in the tournament. We're back in for a SMU/Louisville rematch, and that game is a must-win. I think that probably puts us on the right side of the bubble but it's very much no sure thing.
Scenario 4: Cal goes 3-1 with a win over SMU, but FSU wins out and passes us up in the standings. With a 10th place finish, we play Notre Dame/Pitt on the first day in a 100% must-win game. SMU/Louisville the next day is also a must-win, but a 2-1 ACCT performance and a 24-10 record is a bit more likely to make the big dance than in Scenario #3.
Scenario 5: Absolute chaos*. Cal finishes 3-1 with a loss to Wake, FSU wins out to finish 10-8, and Louisville drops games at Clemson and Miami to finish 10-8. In this scenario, FSU wins the tiebteak against Louisville and takes the 7th seed. Cal then has our unhelpful first round game, followed by an almost as unhelpful 7/10 game against FSU. In this nightmare scenario, we miss out on a Q1 opportunity and probably miss the tournament unless we knock off Virginia in the quarterfinals.
Basically, I think we need to reach the ACCT quarterfinals to feel at least somewhat optimistic about our March Madness odds. It all starts tonight at 7!
*The true absolute chaos situation involves all this and VA Tech winning out, but that would mean the Hokies winning road games at both UNC and Virginia and that's just too much to ask with the rest of the nonsense already happening.
nicely written up!
I'm not going to say it's entirely on Dort's shoulders. But it's going to be tough without him, both for his defensive talent and adding more depth to the position.
We've come a long way. It's been so long since we could dream about the NCAA tournament.
Last year the men’s basketball program generated $5 million in revenue, a year after posting only $1,100.
$1,100 !!!!!!!!!!!
That blows. My high school basketball team generates that much every game! That's a good metric of how far Cal Basketball has come since the Wyking Jones/Mark Fox fiasco. I'm hoping for an NCAA berth but, if not, even the NIT would be nothing to sneeze at considering where we were not too long ago.
I should just camp out at Alumni House for the next five nights
Looks like Lee Dort is off the injury report as well. Arguably the most important game of the season, it's go time!
Going 4-3 with literally zero post presence defensively in his absence has been impressive.