Men's Basketball: Cal Falls to Florida State in Low-Scoring Slog

The Bears can't hit the big shot in 63-61 defeat

photo via calbears.com

First, an apology: Due to unexpected work obligations, I was unable to watch 95% of this game live, and so this recap has been heavily supported by post-game highlight packages that don’t do a great job fully encapsulating a game.

I tuned in with 3:30 left in the game, with a 60-60 tie. And yet, oddly, I have a sense that what I saw in those minutes was actually pretty representative of the entire game.

Because the Bears held the ball five times in that final 3:30 with a chance to make a basket to either tie the game or take a lead, and five times, the Bears failed to make a field goal. Cal’s shots weren’t terrible - Milos Ilic got a decent look inside, then could’ve sank a put back. Justin Pippen’s final three to win was a pretty solid look in the circumstances. But in crunch time, Cal couldn’t generate easy looks and couldn’t knock down their jumpers, and so Cal fell to Florida State despite holding the Seminoles to just two made baskets in the final five minutes.

Before I watched the highlights and looked at the stats sheet, I was expecting to build a story around Cal’s inability to overcome the absence of Lee Dort. Cal’s center missed the game after coming up hurt while landing after an alley oop attempt against Stanford, and Dort’s rim protection and rebounding has been an essential element for Cal this year.

But FSU’s 48% shooting on 2 point shots was below their season average (53.4%) and while FSU narrowly won the rebounding advantage, Cal only gave up 3 second chance points. Milos Ilic ended up filling in well for Dort on the glass and defensively.

No, it may have been the offensive side of the ball where Dort’s impact was more pronounced. Cal finished a miserable 10-30 on two point shots, their worst single game mark of the season. Just look at this shot chart:

5-12 at the rim is bad enough, but 5/18 on 2 point jumpers is a killer. I also think it says something about Cal’s offense, and the kind of shots Cal takes. The Bears aren’t great at getting to the rim off the dribble. Sure, there are shots at the rim. Cal’s offense uses a lot of back cuts, and Cal will find ways to get the ball to Dort either on true post-ups or dribble drive dump offs.

But Cal’s guards settle for a lot of mediocre looks. You’ll see both John Camden and Dai Dai Ames try to take his defender one-on-one, ending in a fadeaway. You’ll see Chris Bell pump fake a 3 to let a defender blow by, then step in a few feet for a baseline jumper.

Luckily those three players are pretty good shooters, and they make those shots at a higher rate than the average college player. But when Cal is settling for shots like that, then they’re going to have games like this, where those jumpers don’t fall as much, and Cal’s 3 point shooting isn’t quite hot enough to make up the difference.

Cal almost managed to win this game anyway, because FSU’s offense isn’t very good and because Cal’s continually improving defense held them below their best. But we’re starting to see the ceiling of Cal’s offense as currently constructed.

I’m not sure there’s an obvious alternative. Theoretically, Madsen could really discourage some of the more inefficient 2 point jumpers Cal’s players sometimes take, slow down Cal’s tempo, and really work for more open 3s or back cuts. But most defenses know what Cal is looking for, so I’m not sure how much juice is left to squeeze out of that orange.

It doesn’t take much to lose a road game 3,000 miles away that you were narrowly favored to win. Lose one important rotation player to injury, have a rough shooting night, and 40 minutes later you have a damaging loss on your resume. Falling to Florida State is far from an NCAA tournament hopes killer, but it does mean that Cal will have to get a resume win to counter the hit.

That chance will come on Sunday against Miami, which represents a Quad 1 win opportunity. And while the impact of missing Lee Dort may not have been keenly felt against FSU, I’m concerns about Miami. To pull the upset, Cal will probably need a healthy Dort to face an intimidating Miami front line that includes Malik Reneau, an all-ACC level stretch 4 who draws tons of fouls, pulls down plenty of offensive rebounds, and hits 61% of his 2 point shots. Even scarier? Reneau isn’t even the best rebounder on the Hurricane roster.