The brass here has stated many times, that Cal has ZERO CHANCE TO MAKE THE DANCE.. I have consistentlyu disgreed wtih their repeated statements on this point as, to them, I'm juist a lowly reader of sthe column who can't disagree with what the brass thinks.
Joe Lunardi's updated Bracketology as of this morning does not have Cal in the field. His projected "Last Team in" is Texas A&M which is sitting according to KenPom rankings right around 52. By those same rankings, Cal's ranking is 109. That's about as close to zero chance as you can have. (You can access either of these articles by Googling "bracketology" or "KenPom rankings.)
The two pathways then are 1) make it in on your own merits and 2) make it by winning the Pac12 tourney.
For case #1 to happen, Cal would have to win out their regular season games just to get to 16-15. Assuming Cal makes noise in the Pac12 tournament but doesn't win it, you're now looking at the non-automatic qualifier positions, of which there are 36 at-large spots. Those according to Lunardi's projects now start at the 10 seed as the lowest position. So let's go with what the current 10 seeds look like being Northwestern (19-8), Nevada (21-6), Nebraska (19-8), and Virginia (20-7). Playing out the scenario where Cal maybe does enough, Cal would need to win their 4 remaining regular season games and 3 Pac12 tourney games while losing the Pac12 tournament to get to 19-13 to end the year. So under this scenario, you need one of Northwestern and Nebraska to lose out the rest of the way, Nevada and Virginia to have the NCAA take away 2 wins and lose out the rest of the way, and all the other teams between those 4 and Cal (which according to Ken Pom is 50+ teams) to also lose out.
Or you win the Pac12 Tournament and sneak in as an automatic qualifier.
Realistically I just spent way too much time to tell you what everyone else is saying. It's just not possible unless they win the Pac12 Tournament.
Alternatively, you can look at this list to see the Worst Teams to ever make the NCAA Tournament. I'll leave it to you to figure out how many of them made the tournament as an at-large berth.
While the Pac may get 3 teams into the Tournament, season ending ranking in the Pac 12/conference standings is not the only thing the thing the tournament committee considers when selecting teams for the at-large berths. They look to total record, not jut conference, and quality of wins (both conf and non-conf)- beating a higher ranked team means more than beating a lower ranked team. Unfortunately for us, the team didn't really have all its pieces at the start of the season where we lost games to some higher ranked teams, which will really count against us when the committee is reviewing for at large berths. there are more teams in other conferences miles ahead of us in the tournament selection criteria with a higher number of quality wins, preventing Cal from slipping into one of the at-large berths. Our only chance to get in is to win the conference tournament, which is an automatic tournament berth.
Cal is two games out of being tied for third place in the conference in the Pac 12 playoff with five games left in the Pac 12 tournament. Shoud be feasible to climb into third or tied for third in the full tournament in the remaining games. I think three or four teams from the Pac 12 will get into the full tournament. Of course, Cal would have to win probably one or two games to do that. Lots of possibliies here.
Boy I wish I lived close enough to attend these home games. I'd have season tickets. Come on Bears, play your hearts out and show those rodents and avians who rules the mighty Pacific!
My comments are differenrt than what you suggest. More than one team from a conference, espeically a big one like the Pac 12, has ben allowed into the NCAA basketball tournament. The question is how many. I say the Pax 12 will have at least three, which Cal has a decent chance to receive.
I really haven't studied all of the rules well, but I think in past years three teams from the Pac 12 qualified to gete into the Tournament. If so, Cal still has a chance to do that
Also, bears mentioning….if you are thinking of donating, or already donate, $$$ to the Athletic Dept. in hopes that it goes to Men’s Basketball, you may consider donating instead to the NIL and earmarking it for MBB…this is far and away the best chance to tangibly help the program. In the transfer portal era, it is vital, and helped us land Fardaws, Tyson, Cone and Keonte...
Sure, but we've all responded to you repeatedly in comments that it's just not happening this year without winning the P12 tournament. That doesn't require an article to be honest.
The kicker is this team really isn’t all that far away from being on the bubble right now, despite the 11-15. A lot of IFs, sure, but missing Keonte the first 7 weeks of the season really killed us. A healthy KK probably gets you a couple of W’s v. UOP/ Montana St./UTEP/Tulane.
If they don’t gag home games to ASU & UW, and pull out the SDSU game in SJC OR at Butler, both of which they honestly had a shot at winning but lost in OT, they’re looking at 16-10 Overall, 9-6 in P12, w/ a quality win over SDSU or @BUT..
That’s bubble right now. Madsen is a lifesaver…keep him at all costs.
Jimmy, I like your spirit As Joe Kapp wouild say, "the Bear doesn't quit, the Bear doesn't die.!.
I still feel that Cal could make the top three in conference, which normally would allow Cal to get in if they have a decent Pac 12 touirnament record (though maybe they would have to win a few games there) The Big IF is avoiding having to play Arizona until late in the Pac 12 tournament to allow usl to get more wins.
Lots of variables here and I'm sure I don't know all of them. If Cal wins tonight, WFC should write an article covering all of the ways Cal can get in assuming i am right that coming in third in the conference in the regular season will do it, or doing that plus a decent performance in the Pac 12 (say two wins in it before losing).
There are conferences where eight teams get into the tournament. Are you going to say that the eighth rated team in that conference, the one least likley to get into the tournament, has no chance to get into the turnament? Don't think so.
The brass here has stated many times, that Cal has ZERO CHANCE TO MAKE THE DANCE.. I have consistentlyu disgreed wtih their repeated statements on this point as, to them, I'm juist a lowly reader of sthe column who can't disagree with what the brass thinks.
Joe Lunardi's updated Bracketology as of this morning does not have Cal in the field. His projected "Last Team in" is Texas A&M which is sitting according to KenPom rankings right around 52. By those same rankings, Cal's ranking is 109. That's about as close to zero chance as you can have. (You can access either of these articles by Googling "bracketology" or "KenPom rankings.)
The two pathways then are 1) make it in on your own merits and 2) make it by winning the Pac12 tourney.
For case #1 to happen, Cal would have to win out their regular season games just to get to 16-15. Assuming Cal makes noise in the Pac12 tournament but doesn't win it, you're now looking at the non-automatic qualifier positions, of which there are 36 at-large spots. Those according to Lunardi's projects now start at the 10 seed as the lowest position. So let's go with what the current 10 seeds look like being Northwestern (19-8), Nevada (21-6), Nebraska (19-8), and Virginia (20-7). Playing out the scenario where Cal maybe does enough, Cal would need to win their 4 remaining regular season games and 3 Pac12 tourney games while losing the Pac12 tournament to get to 19-13 to end the year. So under this scenario, you need one of Northwestern and Nebraska to lose out the rest of the way, Nevada and Virginia to have the NCAA take away 2 wins and lose out the rest of the way, and all the other teams between those 4 and Cal (which according to Ken Pom is 50+ teams) to also lose out.
Or you win the Pac12 Tournament and sneak in as an automatic qualifier.
Realistically I just spent way too much time to tell you what everyone else is saying. It's just not possible unless they win the Pac12 Tournament.
Alternatively, you can look at this list to see the Worst Teams to ever make the NCAA Tournament. I'll leave it to you to figure out how many of them made the tournament as an at-large berth.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2022-02-18/march-madness-history-teams-worst-records-make-ncaa-tournament
While the Pac may get 3 teams into the Tournament, season ending ranking in the Pac 12/conference standings is not the only thing the thing the tournament committee considers when selecting teams for the at-large berths. They look to total record, not jut conference, and quality of wins (both conf and non-conf)- beating a higher ranked team means more than beating a lower ranked team. Unfortunately for us, the team didn't really have all its pieces at the start of the season where we lost games to some higher ranked teams, which will really count against us when the committee is reviewing for at large berths. there are more teams in other conferences miles ahead of us in the tournament selection criteria with a higher number of quality wins, preventing Cal from slipping into one of the at-large berths. Our only chance to get in is to win the conference tournament, which is an automatic tournament berth.
We have a miniscule chance to win the conference tournament. So technically there is a chance. We will not qualify for an at large bid.
Gobears49
Hope y0u weren't a math major at Cal, as you don't know the difference betrween "zero" and "miniiscule."
I hope you weren't an English major at Cal because you didn't read my second sentence.
And was there a need to reply so aggressively to a comment you didn't actually read?
You can disagree all you want.
One more time. Cal has ZERO CHANCE TO MAKE THE DANCE (without winning the Pac 12 tournament).
15-2 finish saves a worrisome performance
Scrappy win.
Tyson can't buy a bucket today.
Time to rev up one more gear.
Celestine picking pockets like he was outside the Roman Colosseum!
Here's hoping the Oregon State shooting regresses to the mean.
Can't remember seeing Aimaq make one of those 3s before. Usually misses.
Lol he's the new Celestine now.
Rodney Brown. Smh.
Keep saying "he's just a freshman." But...yeah.
It’s almost March tho. He continues to make just total bonehead plays.
Yeah, there's a reason he doesn't get minutes. Really needs to put in work this off-season.
Gobears49
Cal is two games out of being tied for third place in the conference in the Pac 12 playoff with five games left in the Pac 12 tournament. Shoud be feasible to climb into third or tied for third in the full tournament in the remaining games. I think three or four teams from the Pac 12 will get into the full tournament. Of course, Cal would have to win probably one or two games to do that. Lots of possibliies here.
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=pac+12+men%27s+basketball+standings&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#sie=lg;/g/11kphxtjzp;3;/g/11ckvf54fz;st;fp;1;;;
Boy I wish I lived close enough to attend these home games. I'd have season tickets. Come on Bears, play your hearts out and show those rodents and avians who rules the mighty Pacific!
My comments are differenrt than what you suggest. More than one team from a conference, espeically a big one like the Pac 12, has ben allowed into the NCAA basketball tournament. The question is how many. I say the Pax 12 will have at least three, which Cal has a decent chance to receive.
Last phrase -- which the Pac 12 has a decent chance to receive and for which Cal coiuld be the third recipient.
Pac-12;
lock: Arizona
almost-lock: WSU
medium at-large candidates: Colorado, Oregon, Utah
longshot at-large candidates: UCLA
needs to win conf tourney: everyone else
My prediction: Zona, WSU and UCLA(play-in game).
All other teams beat up on each other, and UCLA slides into 3rd place with a WSU or Zona win in there.
Gobears49
I really haven't studied all of the rules well, but I think in past years three teams from the Pac 12 qualified to gete into the Tournament. If so, Cal still has a chance to do that
Bob, let's book our tickets. There is a 100% chance that Cal makes the tournament. The first round of sarsaparillas is on me.
Let’s close the home slate out with a bang.
Also, bears mentioning….if you are thinking of donating, or already donate, $$$ to the Athletic Dept. in hopes that it goes to Men’s Basketball, you may consider donating instead to the NIL and earmarking it for MBB…this is far and away the best chance to tangibly help the program. In the transfer portal era, it is vital, and helped us land Fardaws, Tyson, Cone and Keonte...
No matter what happens Mark Madsen has done a terrific job resuscitating this program.
Gobears49
Always looking for articles which discuss Cal's chances to get into the dance, however low. I'm sure some others are as well. This article wasn't it.
Sure, but we've all responded to you repeatedly in comments that it's just not happening this year without winning the P12 tournament. That doesn't require an article to be honest.
The only way Cal gets in to the NCAA Tournament is if the win the Pac-12 tournament.
Thanks to Dan for writing the article. 😃
The kicker is this team really isn’t all that far away from being on the bubble right now, despite the 11-15. A lot of IFs, sure, but missing Keonte the first 7 weeks of the season really killed us. A healthy KK probably gets you a couple of W’s v. UOP/ Montana St./UTEP/Tulane.
If they don’t gag home games to ASU & UW, and pull out the SDSU game in SJC OR at Butler, both of which they honestly had a shot at winning but lost in OT, they’re looking at 16-10 Overall, 9-6 in P12, w/ a quality win over SDSU or @BUT..
That’s bubble right now. Madsen is a lifesaver…keep him at all costs.
We also started the season without Tyson due to the NCAA dicking around. Without those two, this is a completely different team.
Curmudgeon ale... Wait what?
Gobears49
Jimmy, I like your spirit As Joe Kapp wouild say, "the Bear doesn't quit, the Bear doesn't die.!.
I still feel that Cal could make the top three in conference, which normally would allow Cal to get in if they have a decent Pac 12 touirnament record (though maybe they would have to win a few games there) The Big IF is avoiding having to play Arizona until late in the Pac 12 tournament to allow usl to get more wins.
Lots of variables here and I'm sure I don't know all of them. If Cal wins tonight, WFC should write an article covering all of the ways Cal can get in assuming i am right that coming in third in the conference in the regular season will do it, or doing that plus a decent performance in the Pac 12 (say two wins in it before losing).
See Dan’s comment above. It’s the slimmest of chances.
Only way Cal dances is if they win the P12 Tourney…literally the only chance they have of doing that is to somehow avoid playing Arizona.
Gobears49
There are conferences where eight teams get into the tournament. Are you going to say that the eighth rated team in that conference, the one least likley to get into the tournament, has no chance to get into the turnament? Don't think so.
Try this on for size, Bob.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_bubble