Cal Men's Basketball Preview: USC visits Berkeley
a big test for the surging bears
Date: Thursday January 6th, 2022 (8PM FS1)
Opponent: #7 USC Trojans
Record: 12-0 (Conference: 2-0)
Standings: 1st in Pac-12
KenPom Ranking: #19
Opponent Team Stats: 75.9 PPG/42.8RPG/16.0APG/5.3SPG/4.6BPG
Key Players:
Chevez Goodwin
Power Forward (6-foot-9/225lbs)
Senior
13.2PPG/7.1RPG
64.2%-FG/51.2%-FT
Isaiah Mobley
Center (6-foot-10/240lbs)
Junior
15.0PPG/9.6RPG/2.8APG
47.9%-FG/42.6%-3PT/59.5%-FT
Boogie Ellis
Point Guard (6-foot-3/185lbs)
Junior
11.8PPG/4.0RPG/3.1APG
45.3%-FG/32.7%-3PT/70.4%-FT
Expected Starting 5:
Guard Boogie Ellis
Guard Ethan Anderson
Forward Drew Peterson
Forward Chevez Goodwin
Center Isaiah Mobley
The Bears have a tough matchup on their hands. Goodwin and Mobley are the most talented frontcourt duo in the conference. Andre Kelly and Grant Anticevich will have their hands full and will need to defend without getting in to foul trouble. If that does happen expect a more speed based rotation rather than trying to matchup Lars Thiemann with the likes of Mobley or Goodwin. Offensively the Bears are going to need to continue their hot streak from beyond the arc. The team averages over 35% from 3PT land compared to USC’s defense only allowing 27.4% from beyond the arc. Shots will be tough to make against this USC defense which has the #1 defensive effective field goal percentage in the country, all while allowing only 39.8% from anything inside the arc. A good test for the Bears who are riding high with a 9 game home win streak.
Make sure to check out the recap from the Bears’ last game against Arizona State.
Cal’s Win Probability and Score according to KenPom: 32% (61-66 Loss)
well, we need to exploit their poor FT shooting!
wow, this is a very good team on both sides of the court, and agree their front court will be VERY difficult for us to handle as we have no depth there and yet can't afford for either Kelly or Grant to get in foul trouble. I expect we will throw a lot of doubles when ever the ball goes into the post, but Mobley is so mobile, that he can probably face up, and shoot or drive, which will limit our ability to bring help
To win this game, we need to play our best game ... hit 3s and FTs, win the turnover battle, get one of their bigs in foul trouble (unlikely), and rebound over the best rebounding dual in the Pac12
Go Bears! Interesting test. I am surprised kenpom gives us a 32% chance and only a five point loss. If we are close at the end let's snatch away the victory! By the way Kenpom has the Bears at 94th.