Cal Men's Water Polo goes for a three-peat at the NCAA Championships
Can another Cal squad make Los Angeles a Bear Territory for the third straight weekend?
Los Angeles is Bear Territory!!1
This past Saturday, Cal Football won the last-ever regular season Pac-12 game when they defeated UCLA at the Rose Bowl, where Cal fans including yours truly got to celebrate the win on the 50-yard line after the game. On the Sunday two weeks ago, Cal Volleyball managed a 4-set victory at Pauley Pavilion in Westwood over UCLA. For this third consecutive weekend, it will be Cal Men's Water Polo’s turn to claim “LA as a Bear Territory” when the Golden Bears look to complete a NCAA national title three-peat at the 2023 NCAA Men’s Water Polo Championship hosted by USC.
Cal (21-5, 3-3 in MPSF) earned the 2nd overall seed for this year's NCAA championship, today through Sunday, at USC’s Uytengsu Aquatics Center. Cal is surely very familiar with the venue, having played USC there in the regular season (a 12-5 victory on September 9th) and for the MPSF Invitational on September 23-24. In that tournament, Cal defeated Long Beach State 10-6 before a thrilling come-from-behind OT win over Stanford 18-17 later that day. Bears then lost their first match of the season in the MPSF Invitational championship match the next day against UCLA by a 10-12 final.
The NCAA Men's Water Polo championship was a four-team affair for a long time before the expansion to six teams back in 2013. That field expansion saw the introduction of a second at-large bid to greatly ease the importance of the MPSF tournament on the penultimate weekend of action. The 2023 NCAA tournament will be the first with eight teams in the field, but the at-large bids remain at two. Out of Cal, UCLA, USC, and Stanford, Stanford again became the odd one out after an OT loss to Cal in the MPSF tournament semifinal, despite a 3rd-place win over UCLA. Although one can argue that the difference among the four California rivals is small, only three of four are alive for the NCAA title this weekend. The four schools got to duel it out at the COVID-delayed 2020 NCAA championship that took place in the spring of 2021, the last one not won by Cal, due to no automatic bids that year; UCLA claimed that title with a win over USC in the final.
With the extra year of eligibility from that COVID season, Cal Bears returned nine “seniors” looking to end their last dance with a third consecutive NCAA title. While the three-peat feat has been achieved twice in program history, 1973-75 and 1990-92, some people thought an unprecedented perfect season might be plausible. By that lofty standard, the 2023 season with 5 losses already might feel like a letdown, although they are excusable from missed games of key players from injury and national team duty. Ultimately, it was always going to be the results of this weekend that will determine the legacy of this squad. Particularly for these seniors, they are three victories away from laying a solid claim as the best class ever in the storied history of Cal Men’s Water Polo.
Both UCLA and Cal probably felt quite safe about making the NCAA tournament before the MPSF tournament two weekends ago from Berkeley. In a bit of a shocker, USC narrowly defeated Cal for the MPSF title and the automatic bid by executing slightly better in the last few possessions.
In a season where both USC and Stanford had to endure growing pains from graduating key players, Cal and UCLA were the two clear favorites all season long. Unfortunately for Cal, the Golden Bears played without superstar Nikolaos Papanikolaou, the two-time reigning Cutino Award winner as the best player in collegiate water polo, for a good chunk of the season. The Greek center did play at the MPSF Invitational, but sat out the matches before and after that, including the regular season home match against UCLA to play 8 games less than the other regulars. Without “Papa”, Cal dropped from a great team to merely a very good team. With the focus always on this weekend's NCAA tournament, it was understandable for Cal to play it safe with their superstar’s thumb injury during the long fall season. Papanikolaou has been back in action for the past month, including the dominant 12-8 win over Stanford in the home leg of the Big Splash for the Bears to retain the Steve Heaston trophy, named after the former Cal head coach who led the Bears to their most recent three-peat.
Later today (Friday, December 1st), Cal will open this NCAA tournament against Fordham (24-7) at 4 PM PT. Golden Bears defeated then-No.16 Rams back on October 19th by an 18-11 result in a match where most of the Cal regulars were rested. Fordham won the MAWPC championship for the third straight year to earn the NCAA automatic bid. Barring an upset of historic proportion, a rematch against 3rd-seed and host USC (who will take on San Jose State) looms in the NCAA semifinal on Saturday at 4 PM PT. Top-seed UCLA is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the other half of the bracket and face the Cal/USC winner on Sunday at 3 PM PT.
The Friday and Saturday games are streamed for free on NCAA.com. The NCAA Championship final will be aired on ESPNU. Cal fans can find the Friday stream here. I will also be onsite to provide some live updates all weekend via the @WriteForCalLive account on Twitter/X.
Reasons why Cal will win
You can never count the Bears out!
In case you missed it, the California Golden Bears dramatically won the 2022 NCAA title. Despite the home pool advantage, the Bears found themselves trailing USC by four goals late. With virtually no margin for error, Cal played a perfect last six minutes to pull out a victory and shock the visiting Trojans.
With much less at stake, Cal was again in a similar situation at the MPSF Invitational semifinal against Stanford earlier this year. In this one, Cal needed OT to win 18-17 after trailing by 5 goals with 7.5 minutes left in regulation.
In both cases, the Golden Bears played like a team that would not quit. They just focused on the moment and tried to chip away at the lead on every possession while ALSO making all the stops under pressure.
I was present for both come-from-behind wins, and I barely believed it afterward. This team has that championship-winning mentality. They have the mental toughness to execute under pressure. Better yet, the pressure is on the other team despite what the scoreboard may be displaying.
Until that final whistle is blown, Cal Bears will play hard until the final second.
Nikolaos Papanikolaou is the best player in college men’s water polo
In both of the furious comebacks, it is the “Papa” Bear that the other Cal Bears will look to feed from the 2-meter spot. Papanikolaou can be unstoppable for the Golden Bears when all else fails. Even when the other teams are physically trying to slow him down with fouls, “Papa” will get his goals.
Even for Cal, the most successful school in winning NCAA men’s water polo championships with 16 and counting, there is only one player who has won more than one Peter Cutino Award, named for the legendary former Cal head coach who led the team to their first three-peat. That man is, of course, Nikolaos Papanikolaou. The outcome of this weekend will likely decide if “Papa” will earn a third consecutive Cutino award.
Despite missing about a third of the season, the Greek center has scored 37 goals in just 13 matches played to be the 3rd best on the team. Much more impressively, Papanikolaou is the leading man in earned exclusions with 69. Exclusions earned give a team a power play opportunity.
The thumb injury to Papanikolaou was already present at the MPSF Invitational when he attempted to play through it before Cal lost their first match of the season.
According to Cal head coach Kirk Everist, Papanikolaou will get a late chance to make the Greek national team when he returns to Greece at the end of this fantastic collegiate career. While it is unlikely for Papanikolaou to be a 2024 “Calympian” in Paris with those teams having been set, it should be just a matter of time before Papanikolaou becomes an Olympian.
Adrian Weinberg is the best goalkeeper in college water polo
Cal Men’s Water Polo likely got at least one 2024 Paris “Calympian” and that is goalkeeper Adrian Weinberg. Weinberg missed some time, including the latest match at UCLA, to help Team USA qualify for the Paris Olympics by winning the 2023 Pan American games in Santiago, Chile.
Weinberg is not only the starting keeper for the Cal Bears but also the current starter for the Team USA Senior Team. On Team USA, he is joined by Cal alumni and already “Calympians” in Johnny Hooper and Lucas Cupido. Barring injury, Weinberg will become a first-time “Calympin” in Paris 2024.
A regular starter for the Bears since his freshman year, Weinberg is reliably someone who will keep Cal in games. Using his defense in front of him to great effect, Weinberg is also one of the best in the country in earning steals (2nd in the country with 33).
While UCLA’s senior keeper Garret Griggs is having a great season, he has only become the Bruins’ top keeper this season. Cal’s Weinberg is much more battle-tested both in collegiate water polo and on the national stage. One has to credit Weinberg as much as the other Cal Bears for those furious comebacks where any additional goals conceded in the fourth quarter would have meant a different final result.
Spanish Trio: Max Casabella, Roberto Valera, Albert Ponferrada
With “Papa” on. the inside drawing the double and triple team, Cal’s outside shooting will look to capitalize. The junior duo of Max Casabella and Roberto Valera are Cal’s top two scorers this season with 58 and 52 goals, respectively. Casabella is the Bears’ go-to penalty shot taker. Valera, on the other hand, leads the nation in assists with 54 in addition to the 52 goals scored The two Spaniards have been impact players since their freshman season which coincided with the current championship-winning run by the team.
The main beneficiary of the extra play time from the graduation of Jack Deely from the team is sophomore Albert Ponferrada. Ponferrada is tied with Papanikolaou on the team with 37 goals. The younger Spaniard can be also found on the national leaderboard in assists (42 for 3rd best in the country) and steals (32 is 4th best in the country). Arguably, Cal’s first loss of the season in the MPSF Invitational championship match to UCLA was due to the early foul trouble for Ponferrada.
While not a Spaniard, Jake Howerton deserved a shoutout for his great 2nd season with the Bears. The junior, who spent his freshman year with Pepperdine, is 5th on the team with 34 goals. He also had a great MPSF tournament, including a team-high 4 goals against Stanford, to earn the MPSF All-Tournament Team honor alongside Adrian Weinberg and Nikolaos Papanikolaou.
https://twitter.com/CalWaterPolo/status/1730001155626053773
Reasons why this is not a given
Foul trouble
With depth being an obvious strength for the team, Cal could theoretically play more physically without worrying about picking up too many exclusions to be disqualified and suffer a big drop-off. Just like five fouls in basketball, a water polo player can only pick up three exclusions in a match before being disqualified for the rest of the match. A turning point for Cal’s 2022 NCAA title game comeback was a key USC Trojan fouling out early in the 4th quarter.
I certainly do not claim to understand the intricacies of how water polo fouls should be called. A constant complaint that I had overheard from both parents and even other water polo officials while attending Cal matches this year has been about the officiating. Especially against UCLA, Cal has struggled with being called for exclusions. The match in Westwood was so ridiculous that Cal head coach Kirk Everist was ejected by the officials for arguing too much about the fouls inequality.
UCLA is 3-0 against Cal in 2023
Cal has not beaten UCLA (24-2, 6-0 in MPSF) in 2023.
The two UC sibling schools did not play each other at the MPSF Championship where a previously undefeated UCLA Bruins team suffered two losses. Nonetheless, UCLA beat Cal 12-10 at the MPSF Invitational Final in the neutral pool of USC, 14-11 in Berkeley, and 13-9 in Westwood.
Of course, other than that close first match where Cal nearly came back to push the match to OT, the Golden Bears were not at full strength. Papanikolaou did not play in the match in Berkeley. He was also playing just limited minutes for the match in Westwood where Cal was missing starter goalkeeper Adrian Weinberg.
Nonetheless, UCLA has had a great season. Rafael Real Vergara leads the nation with 64 goals. They have also got great goalkeeping play from Garret Griggs. Marcell Szecsi and Eli Liechty are 3rd and 4th in the nation in earning exclusions with 51 and 44 on the year, respectively.
I do not believe that the UCLA Bruins necessarily got a matchup advantage against the Cal Bears. One can certainly say that the Cal Bears are due for a win should the two squads meet in Sunday’s NCAA Championship Final. Bruins probably are happy about having essentially two tune-up games, including a likely semifinal matchup against 4th-seed Princeton (if they fend off UC Irvine), as the top-seed ahead of the championship final.
USC won the MPSF Championship title game in Berkeley
USC’s Max Miller had a ridiculous 7-goal game to give USC a thrilling 13-12 win at the MPSF Tournament Championship match. This was a match that Cal would typically win, holding a lead for the overwhelming majority of the contest. The Trojans equalized with two minutes to go and got the go-ahead score with about a minute left. With the win, USC, despite being the 3rd seed in the NCAA tournament, earned the No.1 ranking in the polls going into this weekend’s tournament from their home pool.
Massimo Di Martire and Carson Kranz also earned MPSF All-Tournament team honor alongside Miller who was named the tournament MVP.
Cal is 2-1 against the USC Trojans in 2023. The best win in the Kirk Everist era over USC came early this year in a 12-5 win on September 9th at USC. Cal had to earn the tougher 10-9 win from Berkeley on October 8th when they played without Papanikolaou.
Trojans (15-6, 1-5 in MPSF) have lost in the last three NCAA Championship matches, including the most recent two to Cal.
Conclusion:
Three is the magical number this weekend. Cal Men's Water Polo needs three wins to replicate the program history of three-peating for the third time.
The uneven regular season where they held two-time reigning Cutino Award winner Papanikolaou out for a third of the season is a thing of the past. This veteran Cal squad knows how to win close matches, and one can never count them out given the epic comeback in the 2022 NCAA title match.
Anyone from Cal, UCLA, and USC can win the 2023 NCAA Men’s Water Polo Championship. Yet no one should be surprised if the Golden Bears rolled to another championship. More likely, the path to an NCAA record-extending 17th title will likely require more dramatic moments for this Cal squad. We will surely miss them, no matter how this last dance season will end.
ROLL ON YOU BEARS!
It's too bad that I can't say "Southern California" rather than “Los Angeles” due to the somewhat promising but nonetheless disappointing results of three close losses for Cal Men's Basketball from San Juan Capistrano in Orange County last week.
They must’ve had an offensive coordinator that stayed for 3 years
Carrying on the legacy of Pete Cutino. The very greatest.